tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32363808398718056332024-03-12T19:38:45.653-04:00Views from the CouchFour men. Four views. All coming from the same place.jlanghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04201285841739141237noreply@blogger.comBlogger143125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-40457233604012146522013-12-11T14:59:00.001-05:002013-12-13T10:53:15.846-05:00The ProposalWhere did the time go? It seems like only yesterday we were punting beer cans at unsuspecting geriatrics and walking shirtless down Boylston. Okay, the last part might still be happening and will continue to happen for the next two years, but I digress.<br />
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So lets recap, see ya later Ellsbury and Saltalamacchia (Thanks be to God, and also with you, however that goes). Hello AJ Pierzynski and hello again Mike Napoli.<br />
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As of right now the lineup would look like this:<br />
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Victorino (S)<br />
Nava/Gomes (S/R)<br />
Pedroia (R)<br />
Ortiz (L)<br />
Napoli (R)<br />
Bogaerts (R)<br />
Pierzynski (L)<br />
Middlebrooks (R)<br />
Bradley Jr. (L)<br />
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That isn't a terrible lineup but losing the continuity of Ellsbury at the top of the order along with his base stealing ability will have some impact but not as much as you may think. Because as Billy Beane and Co. have taught us you are replacing aggregates NOT raw numbers. However, if there is the possibility to improve the lineup and I think there is, we should not hesitate to make the deal.<br />
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While I like Jackie Bradley Jr., having two other unknowns in the lineup in Middlebrooks and Bogaerts, invites the possibility for a slump by 33% of your lineup. I fully believe that Bogaerts will hit but the fact is that 1/3 of your guys don't have a full continuous season in Major League Baseball and that is difficult to bank on as a big market team. Playing two players with a limited track record is much more easily masked throughout a lineup of nine than three players, as odds are you will have to hit two of three back to back at some point (as evidenced above). Therefore, do you smell it? Yup I smell a trade.<br />
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It's time to call up the Milwaukee Brewers and look into their right-handed hitting outfielder. No not the one that drags innocent urine sample collectors through the mud, the other one.<br />
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My Proposal:<br />
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<b style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: red;"><i>Red Sox Acquire: Carlos Gomez</i></span></b><br />
<b style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: red;"><i>Brewers Acquire: Clay Buchholz, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts</i></span></b><br />
<b><br />Why this makes sense for the Red Sox:</b><br />
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Carlos Gomez was the 2nd best CF in the NL last year in terms of WAR (7.6 tied with Miguel Cabrera) and would fill the void that Jacoby Ellsbury left at the top of the order. He also plays a better defensive center field than Ellsbury. He may not steal as many bases or hit from the left side but he just turned 28 and will be for the duration of the 2014 campaign. For those of you that are not familiar with what Gomez did last year for the Brewers let's have a looksee, shall we?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPGS8bE3EepvWKOv0DecpJOWE5mnXYsnr7pghtmsJglLSTbfwaK8hUCI-3gwXe6QCGPPBa0KmZun-cb_-Ec1BwnyRoQFCa9YKGczTuHL_934bNh54oRslrJKtgBw3wOlNX1ojaoKbHXNw/s1600/CarGovElls.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="50" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPGS8bE3EepvWKOv0DecpJOWE5mnXYsnr7pghtmsJglLSTbfwaK8hUCI-3gwXe6QCGPPBa0KmZun-cb_-Ec1BwnyRoQFCa9YKGczTuHL_934bNh54oRslrJKtgBw3wOlNX1ojaoKbHXNw/s640/CarGovElls.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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While Ellsbury walks a little more and strikes out less they are fairly equal offensively. He clearly has more power as evidenced in the .100 point difference in ISO and the .08 difference in SLG. Surprisingly in terms of overall runs created he created 30% more runs than an average player while Ellsbury only created 13%. Gomez was worth 1.8 more wins than Ellsbury last year by and large because of his defense. In looking at <a href="http://mlbscoutingreports.com/tag/carlos-gomez/" target="_blank">his scouting report</a> he has a plus arm which would put plus arms in both RF and CF which is invaluable given how spacious Fenway Park is. It's not outrageous to say that he is double the player that Ellsbury is defensively.<br />
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Trading away Clay Buchholz may be a risky decision however in order to get something of value you must give up something of value. He may be a classic case of thriving in a different environment. The raw ability is there without question, but his inability to stay on the field for the Red Sox has made him far from "untouchable".<br />
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Bradley Jr. would no longer be necessary in the Red Sox organization because of the presence of Gomez therefore he would have to be in the trade and would replace Gomez in CF for the Brewers.<br />
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<b>Why this makes sense for the Brewers:</b><br />
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The Brewers are not competing for a World Series in 2014. But in looking at <a href="http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=mil" target="_blank">their depth chart</a> they have Yovanni Gallardo, Kyle Lohse and a bunch of nobodies, aka need to acquire pitching. No one wants to go to Milwaukee unless they overpay so acquiring via trade would seem to be their best bet in obtaining talent for their staff.<br />
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Enter Clay Buchholz.<br />
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When healthy he is very good, and would really lengthen their staff and has a relatively affordable contract. Obviously health is an issue and this would be contingent on health. In an abridged season for him he was masterful at times and worth 3.2 WAR. Pairing him against Lohse and Gallardo, he is unarguably the best pitcher of the three, which would give Milwaukee a top of the rotation-type pitcher.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVqhiJP7hDPmkXwOm8rIxL7Jpa8ePAUUNNjEK81clqmvPy6y8HuLQw6t9usFfssqz-o5dBQIxAIaMVijD-nnCSj9LhQQFyUdEFMBFxBbHSTvlwC-45mJGjT8sE31pHwvgBPlCmp__IJpM/s1600/BrewersRotation.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="42" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVqhiJP7hDPmkXwOm8rIxL7Jpa8ePAUUNNjEK81clqmvPy6y8HuLQw6t9usFfssqz-o5dBQIxAIaMVijD-nnCSj9LhQQFyUdEFMBFxBbHSTvlwC-45mJGjT8sE31pHwvgBPlCmp__IJpM/s400/BrewersRotation.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
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Jackie Bradley would be the perfect center fielder for a team that is most likely not going to be in contention and can "get his feet wet" with a full year in the majors while not having to do so in the pressure cooker that is Boston, not to mention be cost controllable for the next 6-7 years.<br />
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Mookie Betts is someone that <a href="http://audio.weei.com/a/84943428/mike-hazen-red-sox-assistant-gm-joins-mut-and-merloni-to-discuss-the-team-s-approach-to-free-agency.htm" target="_blank">the Red Sox genuinely like and have said that he has the athletic ability to play other positions</a>. However, he is blocked by Red Sox for life Dustin Pedroia at his primary position, Xander Bogaerts is a better player and is ready now to become a star at either 3B or SS so he is expendable and his value could not be higher despite being in A ball. His slash line of .314/.417/.506 along with 15 HR and 38 SB is definitely intriguing for a smaller market team to acquire.<br />
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If the Brewers were close to contending I don't think they would even think of doing this, but acquiring young affordable talent for 3-4 years down the road for when they are ready is something that makes sense for the Brewers at this juncture.<br />
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In terms of money, this also works because the AAV of Carlos Gomez is 8 million and the AAV of Clay Buchholz is 7.7. So you are essentially taking on 300K of salary between those two players which would even out when you factor in that JBJ is getting the league minimum (500K ish) for the year for the Brewers.<br />
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Here's hoping the trade-winds blow our way and we can talk about more than just an agitator behind the dish.<br />
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Stay Tuned<br />
Norton<br />
<br />Nortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-79539752493649639912013-10-21T12:28:00.001-04:002013-10-21T12:28:38.099-04:00World Series Preview-dictionsThe Red Sox are back in the World Series in a rematch of the 2004 showdown with only 3 familiar faces in the games. The only two players that are still around on both teams are David Ortiz and Yadier Molina whom was a 22 year old rookie during that World Series. The only other hold over is Mike Matheny then catcher, but current manager for St. Louis. Personally I thought the Dodgers were a much better match up for the Red Sox because they have the edge in most aspects of the game. The Cardinals are a mirror image in most ways and this series is going to go the distance.<br />
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The Red Sox and Cardinals respectively beat teams that were widely selected to win their leagues pre season. However, The Red Sox and Cardinals both beat Cy Young award winners in their Championship Series' and runs were definitely at a premium for both teams.<br />
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Looking at the probably pitching match ups and how each pitcher has fared against the opposition goes as follows:<br />
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It is pretty plain to see that that most of these pitchers have not faced any of the other batters more than a handful of times or not at all. This should lead to numerous pitcher's duels throughout the series. Wainwright has never pitched against the Red Sox in his career and the player with the most success against him is Victorino with a .227 batting average, yikes.<br />
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As you all know I am an avid ball-washer of Jon Lester and he can and will go pitch for pitch with Wainwright but you're going to see pitching performances in Game 2 and Game 3 by Michael Wacha and John Lackey respectively that will reinvigorate your love for the game of baseball.<br />
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While I would certainly consider moving Lackey to Game 2 given that he and Lester have been the best two starters in the playoffs for the Red Sox. Game 3 means you're going in Game 7. Do you want any part of this no-stamina version of Clay Buchholz in a Game 7? Me either. There is also something to be said that keeping Buchholz on a normal rest schedule (4 days) may improve his command for his pitches instead of the longer layoff in between games. John Lackey has shown that a layoff didn't bother him in the ALCS and the way he has controlled his emotions and thrown with conviction exudes confidence going in any game this series. One other thing to take into account is that Lackey and Peavy are better hitters than Buchholz as well. Keeping Buchholz away from doing anything other than the required pitching and fielding motions would seem to be very important.<br />
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Michael Wacha however has been the most dominating starter in the post season and has an ERA of 0.43 and 22 strikeouts and 8 hits, in 21 innings pitched. Couple this with the fact that not one player on the Red Sox has ever faced him, if you thought the Detroit pitching staff shut down the Red Sox offense Michael Wacha is going to make Scherzer and Verlander look like "Way Back" Wasdin and Rolando Arrojo.<br />
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With a hat tip to Jeff Sullivan over at <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/michael-wacha-as-a-reliever-as-a-starter/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a>:<br />
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During the regular season Michael Wacha's velocity per pitch looked like this:<br />
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<strong style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">Fastball: </strong><span style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">93.6 miles per hour</span><br style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;" /><strong style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">Changeup: </strong><span style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">85.9</span><br style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;" /><strong style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">Curveball: </strong><span style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">75.6</span><br />
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Solid for any starter, probably topping out at 95-96 but sitting around 93-94. Now looking at the postseasons numbers:<br />
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<strong style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">Fastball: </strong><span style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">95.5 miles per hour</span><br style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;" /><strong style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">Changeup: </strong><span style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">88.4</span><br style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;" /><strong style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">Curveball: </strong><span style="background-color: beige; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">77.3</span><br />
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He has added 2 miles per hour to every pitch making him damn near unhittable living at 95-96 but topping out at 98-99. This has Complete game shut out written all over it in Game 2 (and possibly Game 6) for the Cardinals.<br />
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Looking at the overall starting pitching in this series I'm calling Wainwright and Lester a wash. Wacha versus vintage Gibson, I'm taking Wacha right now so he has the advantage in any game he's throwing. Buchholz is a shell of himself right now with no stamina, no velocity, and I almost think you throw him against Wacha and hope he gets lucky so as to not waste Lackey who will assuredly give you a very good start. But giving up 1 run may be like 10 in Game 2. Lackey has faced two guys (Beltran and Holliday) on the Cardinals and they are a combined (0-16). If he shuts down those two players he should win the first game in St. Louis. This match up is also not favorable for Peavy either and I fear he will get lit up in Game 4. Lynn versus Peavy will be a lot like the Fister versus Peavy game in Game 4 of the ALCS.<br />
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<b>Starting Rotations: Push</b><br />
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As well as the Red Sox bullpen has pitched this postseason the St. Louis bullpen has been just as dominant. Each team has 3 relievers with 0.00 ERAs. Uehara has a 1.00 and Tazawa has a 1.80. Martinez and Axford have also both been VERY good too with a 2.70.<br />
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Two dark horses that I think could play a big role in this series are:<br />
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Ryan Dempster: With Buchholz not looking like himself and Peavy almost pre-destined to lay an egg versus the Cardinals, Dempster in long relief needs to pitch well. Dempster's ability to either limit damage or provide length in the bullpen may be huge in making sure the core relievers don't get completely gassed during the series.<br />
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Randy Choate: Choate hasn't given up a run in this postseason and he will be the late reliever you see against David Ortiz (3-9 with 3 RBI lifetime). If the Red Sox win this one-on-one it would go a long way to winning the series.<br />
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Trevor Rosenthal and Koji Uehara have both been as dominant as you could ask for as closers, with a .71 and .56 WHIP respectively.<br />
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<b>Bullpens: Push</b><br />
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The Cardinals lineup is very similar to the Red Sox where it has a few run producers but a lot of role players that come up with timely hits.<br />
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Carlos Beltran has the strange ability to morph into Stan Musial once the calendar flips to October. He has 2HR 8BB 12 RBIs in 11 games this postseason and he always seems to be up during the most crucial at bat of the game for the Red Birds. Shutting him down in the series is paramount if the Red Sox want to win.<br />
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Going to a National League park is a serious disadvantage both offensively and defensively for the Red Sox whom have to lose one of their biggest power threats in each game. Given that the Cardinals don't have any lefty starters, I would expect Ortiz to play in at least 2 out of 3 in St. Louis.<br />
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Allen Craig is coming back which gives them a better option at DH than most NL teams would have going into an American League stadium, but his level of effectiveness remains to be seen given that he has been out a month and a half.<br />
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Both teams need to get runs off the starters in order to win, because runs will most likely be hard to come by with the bullpen's pitching the way they have been pitching.<br />
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<b>Lineups: Slight advantage Red Sox when at home/Slight advantage Cardinals when at home. Push</b><br />
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In terms of overall team defense or DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) the Red Sox are at +9 for the year while the Cardinals come in at -39.<br />
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To put it in perspective, the chart at left shows what the overall defensive numbers would look like for one player. It is obvious that +9 is leaps and bounds better. But positionally the Red Sox are markedly better in CF, RF, 2B and 1B.<br />
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The teams are close at 3B, SS and LF. But where the Cardinals have a huge advantage is behind the dish. Yadier Molina, as we have<a href="http://vfromthecouch.blogspot.com/2013/08/catching-up.html" target="_blank"> gone through at length here</a>, is the best defensive catcher in baseball. What the Red Sox have done better than any team in baseball this year is run the bases. Stealing bases and putting pressure on other teams by advancing the extra base (See Middlebrooks, Will in Game 5 ALCS) has been a huge part to this teams success.<br />
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Yadier Molina is the X-Factor in this series because he is the deterrent of every team's running game. He threw out (20 of 46) 43% of runners this year. The fact that there were only 46 attempts against Molina in 132 games behind the dish speaks volumes.<br />
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Here is a video from the NLDS. I have his pop time here at 1.97 seconds. (Time it if you want, as soon as the ball hits his glove to the nanosecond the 2nd baseman touches it) If the pitchers can get the ball to the plate in 1.5 or better (I had Martinez at 1.27), that means that mathematically the Red Sox will have to get to 2nd base faster than 3.24 seconds. That's a tall task for Ellsbury or Berry let alone anyone else. This could be a major problem for the Red Sox because the strongest player on the Cardinals makes the biggest strength for the Red Sox (base running) seemingly non-existent. This should not go unnoticed and should actually be frightening.</div>
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The overall team defense advantage goes decidedly to the Red Sox, but the caliber of defense that Yadier Molina plays is that of vintage Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez and you won't see many catchers that are as defensively gifted in any era in the history of the game.</div>
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<b>Advantage: Red Sox</b></div>
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This managerial face off is also just as close as every other aspect of this series. Both managers in my opinion (outside of the Franklin Morales decision, seriously Farrell, you were just trolling us right?) have worked their pitching staffs brilliantly in the playoffs. Pulling the right strings at the right times leading to victories that other managers *Cough Don Mattingly Cough* just aren't mentally capable of accomplishing.</div>
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They have been swift and deliberate with taking the starters out of the games, and virtually both everything that they have touched has turned to gold. However two things to be aware of for each manager:</div>
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Farrell: He's going to stick with Drew. Get over it. There are only right-handed starters for St. Louis, and he is an above average defensive shortstop. That being said, he needs to be prepared to hit for him in this series in the later innings if this slump continues. Not only does he need to be prepared to hit for him, but Bogaerts needs to be moved to 7 in the order while in the NL stadium. Bogaerts is making more contact than Drew and putting Bogaerts in the 8 hole will negate his bat because the 8 hole gets pitched around in the National League in order to face the pitcher. Also Drew getting on base via IBB will be a welcome site compared to the lonely walk back to the dugout every time up at bat.</div>
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Matheny: Matheny needs to find a way to put pressure on both Saltalmacchia and Bogaerts. Without being reckless he needs to steal all day on Saltalamacchia simply because he can be stolen on. I am not an advocate of bunting to sacrifice outs but Bogaerts hasn't had many slow rollers at third base and testing him early in the series is something that should be explored. A natural shortstop has the range but it's a different angle to play and may be able to be exploited.</div>
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<b>Manager: Push </b></div>
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These teams are so evenly-matched. They both went 97-65 in the regular season. They have good starting pitching, lock down bullpens, adept at grinding out at bats and mangers that are decisive with sound reasoning for their moves and I expect this to be a World Series that people talk about for a long time. </div>
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I'm taking the Red Sox in 7 games but the Cardinals are not to be over-looked. This is a very good team that can beat the Red Sox and is a much more difficult match up than the Detroit Tigers or the Los Angeles Dodgers.</div>
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Stay Tuned</div>
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Norton</div>
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<br />Nortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-10010339670889681492013-10-10T10:07:00.000-04:002013-10-10T11:49:35.798-04:00Changing up the RotationAfter watching the way that Farrell managed Game 4 versus the Tampa Bay Rays, I would say that <a href="http://vfromthecouch.blogspot.com/2013/10/explaining-john-farrells-moves.html" target="_blank">my criticism</a> that letting Stephen Drew bat against McGee was in fact the wrong decision and he has learned from his mistakes and won't ever do anything to my disliking again. Well, maybe not, but I thought that was one of his finest games at the helm of the Red Sox and he out-managed a guy who drinks wine and wears hipster glasses, which clearly correlates to great managing.<br />
<br />
(***Note: <a href="http://vfromthecouch.blogspot.com/2013/10/oakland-v-detroit-preview.html" target="_blank">I still stand by my pick</a> of Oakland in 5***)<br />
<br />
All tire-pumping aside, I think the rotation needs a slight alteration for the ALCS, and it should go as follows:<br />
<br />
Lester<br />
Buchholz<br />
Lackey<br />
Peavy<br />
<br />
Right now he has only really announced that Lester will start Game 1, and I think this is the reason for the non-announcement for the rest of the series. Let's delve, shall we?<br />
<br />
Performances all around were ranging from Very Good (Lester and Peavy) to Competitive but not Great (Buchholz and Lackey).<br />
<br />
Lester is the consensus number one, if anyone disputes that I would advise you to go watch a new sport like Professional Lacrosse.<br />
<br />
Buchholz sort of slogged through his outing with the inability to keep the ball down consistently despite only giving up the one mistake. Lackey was sort of what Lackey is, a guy that competes, and usually keeps his team in the game. Also knowing that he had 10 days off in between starts spoke to his lack of command during parts of the game.<br />
<br />
But I am proposing that Buchholz be the Game 2 starter instead of Game 3 in the upcoming series regardless of opponent. I know that Lackey has pitched better at home this season than on the road, however in his career he has better peripheral numbers than Buchholz in both Comerica Park and the Oakland Colosseum.<br />
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Lackey, coming from Anaheim, has had more than his fair share of Oakland and he has done very well in that stadium.<br />
<br />
One of the main reasons for Lackey pitching in Fenway in the ALDS was to neutralize the left-handed batters which have a massive right field to deal with at The Fens compared to a more hitter-friendly Tropicana Field. In this case both ballparks are massive and it shouldn't really matter where he starts in this series.<br />
<br />
Looking ahead to a potential series with Oakland as I predicted, Sonny Gray the best starting pitcher on the A's, is going to win seemingly any time he steps out there. Unless he throws on short rest he'll go Game 3 and then again in a potential Game 7. I want Lackey, someone that has more success in the Colosseum to try and match him zero for zero instead of Buchholz and his 9.58 ERA in Oakland.<br />
<br />
Buchholz, for whatever reason (better competition?) has struggle in both of those parks. Despite being 2-2 against the A's in his career the gaudy numbers that they have against him in Oakland (.342 avg, .440OBP, .492 SLG ) combined as a team are akin to their team being Freddie Freeman.Yeah, no thanks!<br />
<br />
So, within this series, you may need to adjust for Buchholz the way you adjusted for Lackey in the last series and put Buchholz on the home rubber. Throwing him in Game 2 also ensures that he will throw at home again in Game 6 which puts your player once again in the best place to succeed.<br />
<br />
For those impressed with Peavy and wanting him to pitch Game 2, I don't blame you. He was dominant, in control, and the kind of bulldog that a Curt Schilling was for the Red Sox in post season's past. Also, if not for match ups and was (rightly) pulled in the 6th he very well could have gone for a complete game. But I want him in the 4 spot for a myriad of reasons.<br />
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>He is the new guy. Buchholz and Lackey have seniority on the team and in "baseball code" this does mean something. Also he's not selfish and doesn't view being the 4-starter as most teams actual 4-starter. They are pitching rich, and he gets it.</li>
<li>During the regular season he did not pitch so much better or worse than either Lackey or Buchholz to warrant being moved up in the rotation as a foregone conclusion. If he had pitched head and shoulders better it would make the first bullet obsolete but they were all by and large equal, in terms of overall production.</li>
<li>Situationally, I want him in the 4 spot. If the Red Sox are down 2-1 in a series (I don't see any team getting out to a 3-0 series lead) I actually have more confidence in him in the 4 spot than Lackey to come through and even the series at two games apiece and hand the ball back to Lester.</li>
<li>I have an unadulterated man crush on him, and when that happens only good things can happen for him (see Lester in 2012, oh wait.)</li>
</ul>
<div>
The Sox are set up as well as they can be heading into this series getting three days off (the perfect amount of rest) before their next series and they can line up their rotation as they see fit, I like them to advance no matter the opponent.</div>
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<br />
Stay Tuned<br />
<br />
NortonNortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-44436072502786795802013-10-08T11:02:00.001-04:002013-10-08T11:02:56.211-04:00Explaining John Farrell's MovesJohn Farrell, like every other manager, coach or head of in-game decision making deserves to or at the very least is not immune to criticism. We should go over the in-game situations and whether it was a defensible decision.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">(***Note: Do not base opinions on outcome, base it on thought process. No one likes a Monday Morning Quarterback.***)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<b>Pitching to Evan Longoria with two outs, runners on 2nd and 3rd, First Base open: </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Many people drew parallels to what Joe Maddon <i>should have done</i> by letting Ortiz beat him with a man on third and two outs but the situation is completely different. At this point, as manager, you are already behind 2-0 and you don't want to go down 3-0 by arguably the hottest hitter on the team especially with strikeout machine Mike Napoli on deck. The move should have been to walk Ortiz.<br />
<br />
However, while up 3-0 if you walk Longoria you are putting the tying run on first base. Myers hasn't done much throughout the series admittedly, a double ties the game but a home run in that situation puts the Rays ahead while a home run with Longoria although difficult to stomach, only ties the game.<br />
<br />
The other aspect is Clay Buchholz history vs. Evan Longoria and it has been largely one-sided. Entering yesterday's game in 34 at-bats Longoria had 7 hits (.206 average), 0 home runs, and 13 strikeouts. That number of strikeouts is the most for Clay Buchholz vs any batter and conversely the most for Evan Longoria vs any pitcher. This is called domination by a pitcher versus a batter.<br />
<br />
Longoria is undoubtedly the best player on the Rays, and you don't want the best player to beat you on most occasions. But given Buchholz and his gaudy numbers versus one of the leagues best and ultimately putting the tying run on base is risky. Hindsight says you shouldn't have pitched to him, however at the time the call is totally defensible and what I would have done knowing the batter history vs said pitcher. Pitch selection however is a completely different argument.<br />
<br />
<i>Farrell Decision: Defensible</i><br />
<br />
<b>Pinch Running Quintin Berry for David Ortiz in the 8th inning:</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
This is another move that people are judging based on the outcome and the hindsight of not having Ortiz up in the 9th inning.<br />
<br />
Quintin Berry has one job on the team during this post season: pinch run for David Ortiz or Mike Napoli late in the game and steal the base or score the run.<br />
<br />
David Ortiz led off the 8th inning with a walk. (Lead off base runners score almost 40% of the time) Given that there is only one regulation inning afterwards the odds of the Red Sox batting around to get back to Ortiz, not impossible, but slim. Ortiz is not fleet of foot so any ball in the gap it is a question whether he can score from first, however with Berry, it is a certainty. Also Berry gives you the stolen base factor which is one more thing for relievers to think about which means their full focus is not on the batter. If there are any outs I doubt Ortiz comes out of the game, but given that no men have been retired in the inning you need someone that can run in that situation.<br />
<br />
Berry then stole the base while Mike Napoli was up, in turn giving the Red Sox three opportunities to hit with a runner in scoring position without sacrificing an out to get a runner to second base. Ultimately the Red Sox didn't get a hit in the next three at-bats and Ortiz is out of the game for its duration.<br />
<br />
Berry came in and did the only job he has on this team and if you aren't going to use him in this situation when would you use him?<br />
<br />
<i>Farrell Decision: Defensible</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<b>NOT Pinch-Hitting Bogaerts for Drew with 2 outs in the 8th inning: </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Jake McGee is on the hill, very hard throwing lefty that is actually better against righties (.217) than lefties (.235).<br />
<br />
Stephen Drew at the plate has a wretched .196 batting average on the year vs lefties.<br />
<br />
Xander Bogaerts is on the bench, Jamey Wright (righty) warming up in the pen.<br />
<br />
There comes a time when sticking with a player is detrimental to team success and that time comes when Stephen Drew faces lefties. If he starts the game versus a lefty I have no problem with it, but later in the game it is not beneficial to have a .196 hitter against a lefty especially one that has lefties only hitting .235 off of him. If the splits were above .250 for the year it could be an acceptable risk to let Drew bat.<br />
<br />
Farrell's explanation:<br />
<br />
"McGee has been dominant against right‑handed hitters. He's almost a
right‑handed reliever in some ways because of the strong reverse splits he has,"
Farrell said. "Stephen is a good fastball hitter. We know McGee is going to come
at us with 95 percent fastballs, if not more. There was no hesitation to leave
Stephen at the plate."<br />
<br />
<i>*Full Disclosure: I understand there is a Small ML Sample Size here, however this is a player that EVERYONE expects to be handed the reigns at the beginning of next year. But we will use some Minor League Splits for a greater sample*</i><br />
<br />
If Xander Bogaerts comes in the Rays might make a pitching change or they may let McGee face Bogaerts.<br />
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>If they let McGee face Bogaerts LHP vs RHB (.298 avg, .926 OPS)</li>
<li>If the let Wright face Bogaerts RHP vs RHB ( .280 avg, .782 OPS)</li>
</ul>
<div>
The comment that "Stephen is a good fastball hitter" is also a bit contrite given that in a small sample size at the Major League level Bogaerts is hitting .600 against similar pitchers. Also, wouldn't you want a rookie batter up at the plate against a "one-trick pony" as McGee is with his fastball? If you want to take Ferrell's number at his words and you're getting 95% fastballs Bogaerts is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, the kid can hit a fastball, it would seem to at the very least be a push. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If they make the pitching change then you get Jamey Wright on the hill, whom is a worse reliever than McGee and also his splits versus righties yield a .255 avg. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So here's the decision:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Drew at .196 versus McGee .235 vs Lefties</div>
<div>
Bogaerts at .298 versus McGee .217 Righties</div>
<div>
Bogaerts at .280 versus Wright at .255 Righties</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Most likely Maddon keeps McGee in the game and you get a slightly more-favorable matchup, albeit a big spot for a rookie, where a predominantly fastball pitching Southpaw versus a good fastball hitting right-handed batter</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The decision Farrell made (letting Drew hit) was based largely on defense later in the game. But where you have already pinch ran for Ortiz in the inning you have already committed to needing this run to come in and assuring that you weakened your lineup for the right reasons. Not pinch hitting for Stephen Drew not only doesn't make sense it was borderline irresponsible. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If, as a manager, you are unprepared to hit for a player with drastic splits as Drew has versus lefties and are that worried about his defense, then he should not be on the roster and John MacDonald should have gotten the roster spot. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>Farrell Decision: Indefensible</i></div>
<div>
<i><br /></i></div>
<div>
<b>Shane Victorino bunting with runners on 1st and 2nd no one out in the 9th:</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
The semi-progressive baseball crowd saying, "you can't bunt with 1st and 2nd no one out, you're killing an inning" doesn't get it. </div>
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While a runner on second with no one out has a 60% chance of scoring, all things being equal , a bunt gets you two runners in scoring position with Pedroia coming up. Great contact hitter. If Victorino doesn't get a hit you are looking at a 45% chance of getting the runner in with one out from second or a 54% chance of getting the run in with one out and the runner at 3rd.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It would be one thing if the personnel that you have bunting was incapable or unfamiliar to bunting but Shane Victorino is a virtual certainty at getting the bunt down. Therefore with one out you have a better than 50% chance of the run scoring with a guy that is in top 5 in the league in hardest to strike out.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Also, consider Victorino's thumb. A pitcher with a power sinker pounding him inside is asking for a weak ground ball to the left side and possible rally-killing double play.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Thinking ahead, they could possibly have intentionally walked Pedroia to get to Mike Carp who just a few weeks ago beat the Rays on a grand slam against a similar sinker ball pitcher. However, with a historically wild pitcher, Farrell made an educated guess thinking that they would pitch to Pedroia to give him some flexibility in case he walked someone. Also this move takes away Rodney's change-up. A pitch that frequently bounces in the dirt and gets away from the catcher, which leaves you with two players that feast on fastballs in Pedroia and Carp coming up in the next two batters.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Ultimately, he put his players in the best position to succeed with this decision. And the tying run ended up scoring so the juice was worth the squeeze.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>Farrell Decision: Defensible</i></div>
<br />
<br />
Very rarely are you going to see a successful double-switch in an American League game, which leads me to believe that the Rays got a little lucky, but sometimes its better to be lucky than good. The Red Sox are still in the drivers seat, and have an advantage going into Game 4 with Peavy getting the nod against Hellickson.<br />
<br />
Stay Tuned<br />
<br />
Norton<br />
<br />Nortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-18790513091959233612013-10-01T12:35:00.001-04:002013-10-01T12:35:19.053-04:00Oakland v Detroit previewWhile you patiently await my Red Sox ALDS preview might as well preview the other AL match up.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Peripherals:</b></span><br />
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Oakland (96-66) won the season series from Detroit (93-69) 4 games to 3. Each team won one-run game.<br />
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While most people think the Tigers offense is a juggernaut, the Athletics have actually hit more home runs than the vaunted Motown Nine. The Tigers undoubtedly have the more well-known hitters and certainly have the advantage in batting average on the year, however the rest of the offensive stats are pretty close while leaning towards Detroit. This series should be very close and I expect it to go five games.<br />
<br />
Oakland's defense and base running advantage can not be overlooked in this series. The Athletics have more than doubled the Tigers in steals on the year and I expect them to try and run as often as possible especially on Alex Avila and his Saltalamacchian 17% caught stealing percentage.<br />
<br />
I will give the edge in overall offense to Detroit but its not a runaway. Base running and Defense give the edge to Oakland. If for some reason these two aspects of the game improve for Detroit or Oakland gets picked off/thrown out a lot, this series will be much shorter than the five games I see it at now.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Difference Makers</b>:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
This section we are going to look at the top 4 offensive catalysts for each team vs. the potential starters.<br />
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Just looking at Crisp's numbers I will make the educated guess that he will have the biggest impact offensively for the A's in this series followed by Donaldson who seems to be having one of "those years" and actually ended the year .1 WAR better than Miguel Cabrera. let that sink in.<br />
<br />
Reddick whom already has numerous holes in his swing would seem to be destined for a rough series, but it's a short series and anyone can string a couple hits together during 5 days.<br />
<br />
There are only 2 total career home runs by these four off the starting pitchers they are going to face both surprisingly by Coco Crisp, and despite their home run lead over the Tigers for the year, they have the capability to play small ball which may come into play given that runs may come at a premium in this series.<br />
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Cabrera obviously is one of the top 8 offensive players in Major League Baseball history, but his production vs these Oakland starters is impressive despite the relative small sample size. I would expect a ton of intentional walks and "not letting him beat you" out of the Athletics. (Note: Cabrera is not healthy, and although deserves attention, may not be the offensive force he usually is. It goes without saying without him being him this lineup can be pitched to.)<br />
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This would make Martinez probably the next bet to have a big series based on track record and history versus the Oakland starters. But each of these 4 has at least one home run against at least one of the pitchers.<br />
<br />
Torii Hunter has 10 and 5 strikeouts respectively against Bartolo Colon and Jarrod Parker, he also has been handled well in a small sample size versus AJ Griffin.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Brass Balls</span></b>:<br />
<br />
Sometimes it's about stepping up when the light shines brightest and we need to look at the Postseason track records of the starters of these two series.<br />
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The Tigers starters as a whole have done a better job than Oakland in letting runners on base given that every pitchers WHIP is better than even the best WHIP of the Athletics. That should not go unnoticed.<br />
<br />
However, I am starting to buy into the school of thought that Verlander can't pitch as well (or is not as good) in the postseason compared to the regular season. Maybe we should call him Peyton Verlander? I digress. His HR/9 goes up .6 and his ERA balloons in the postseason, which in 70 innings is a pretty substantial amount. I will not say that Verlander is a liability but his performance in October has not inspired ANY over-confidence. Sanchez however in 3 starts? Nails.<br />
<br />
Griffin and Parker have had very little experience and Gray having none. Parker has had a rough go in 2 starts in the post season and Griffin was average in one start. I have watched 3 starts of Sonny Gray's, all Wins, and he is going to do EXACTLY what Matt Moore did to the Rangers in 2011. The fact that none of the Tigers have faced him only gives him an advantage and unless he turns into a puddle out on the mound, ala Rick Ankiel, I expect him to win his start no matter whom he is up against.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>The Pens:</b></span><br />
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The Athletics have a decided advantage in bullpen. Although most would consider it a big advantage to be leading in GB% outside of Jose Iglesias everyone is below average on defense especially in range which means ground balls trickle through the holes a lot more often than most infield defenses.<br />
<br />
If the Athletics can get into the Detroit bullpen they should have a wonderful opportunity against everyone except for Rondon who's 103 mph fastball is a tall task for nine Mike Trout's let alone the Oakland A's. But with Rondon being shut down at the end of the year his availability is still uncertain as of right this moment, along with fellow bullpen arm Phil Coke. This would be a significant disadvantage for the Tigers and one that could make for an early exit. If the starters get knocked around or run up the pitch count after six innings.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>At the Helm:</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span>
While some may give the managing edge to Leyland because of pedigree I am not. I have watched him on multiple occasions this year run starters back out in the game when they had no reason to be out there, part of it because of a lack of confidence in the bullpen and the other part because he's a crotchety old-time baseball guy and believes his starters are borderline infallible.<br />
<br />
I am however not giving the advantage to Bob Melvin either. Melvin has done a wonderful job guiding the A's to 2 consecutive playoff births and Division titles, but I haven't seen anything out of him that blows me away either. This is a Push.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Verdict:</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
The Tigers virtually eliminated themselves from World Series contention when they got no-hit by the Florida Marlins on the last day of the season. No team that has ever been no-hit in the regular season has ever went on to win the World Series. Science.<br />
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I will take Oakland in 5, because I believe that Verlander can be gotten to in the playoffs, for whatever reason, and I'm not sure why. But I can't remember a dominating performance out of him ever when the lights shine brightest. So, if he is pitching games 1 and 5 I'll take the Athletics.<br />
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Stay Tuned,<br />
<br />
Norton<br />
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<br />Nortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-71331296605437333682013-09-25T13:00:00.001-04:002013-09-25T13:27:27.344-04:00Do You Want Salt on That?I've been called a lot of things, (just ask my ex-wife, HEY-O) but no one would ever call me someone that has been an advocate or a fan of Jarrod Saltalamacchia. That being said, the Red Sox are in quite the conundrum after the season with his impending free agency.<br />
<br />
Saltalamacchia has by and large had a solid year offensively (ranked 7th in terms of raw power (ISO)) and has certainly improved to be a better catcher defensively than in years past. The pitchers do seem more comfortable with him yet you will still see the occasional terrible throw back to the mound to still make me nervous about his bout with the "yips". Derek Lowe spoke at length in a recent Red Sox broadcast about how much he appreciated David Ross because his throw was always perfect back to the mound which kept him in rhythm. All this withstanding he has been an integral part of the success of this team this year, admirably catching both ends of a double-dip and his ability to be in the lineup day after day.<br />
<br />
My thoughts on this are simply this: Tell me who takes over for him and what's the cost.<br />
<br />
There is one free agent catchers that I would consider "big name" (Brian McCann) and one trade candidate (Yan Gomes). For those of you saying, "what the hell is a Yan Gomes?", he is the backup/timeshare catcher for the Indians with Carlos Santana and Kelly Shoppach.<br />
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<br />
How do they stack up against one another offensively?<br />
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I would say Gomes' 2013 is every bit as impressive as Saltalamacchia and McCann's despite having fewer at bats. Catchers typically blossom a little later in their careers compared to other position players and while Salty and McCann are in their respective primes Gomes is approaching his and doesn't become a free agent until 2019. These three are clearly head and shoulders above Ruiz offensively.<br />
<br />
The UBR stat takes into account all base running scenarios (taking the extra base, tagging up and advancing etc.) Saltalamacchia is the leader in this category and given John Farrell's mantra of taking the extra base, and the fact that been very fortunate lately with a few steals it is not a surprise, but Gomes is a much faster base runner.<br />
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Looking at wOBA, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/" target="_blank">which is a wonderful stat</a> that measures a hitter's overall offensive value, it shows that Gomes, McCann and Saltalamacchia are well above average in terms of overall offensive value. Gomes also has created 33% more runs than league average which for a player that has not yet reached his prime is quite remarkable. He is ranked 33rd in terms of wRC+ of all players with at least 300 plate appearances ahead of the likes of Buster Posey, Evan Longoria and Prince Fielder. This is what we call a diamond in the rough.<br />
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I included a new stat called 'Dollars' which is basically what the player is worth given their performance. if you divide it by their WAR it comes out to be approximately 5 million per Win. Yan Gomes has been worth 3.6 Wins Above Replacement this year which totals to be about $17.8 million. When you consider the fact that he is not even arbitration eligible this is one of the biggest bargains in baseball this year.<br />
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While you want every player on your team to be well-rounded <a href="http://vfromthecouch.blogspot.com/2013/08/catching-up.html" target="_blank">I place an importance on catcher defense </a>because of the ripple effect that it has on the rest of the team especially the pitching staff. If a pitcher has the confidence of his catcher that he will control the running game, or block a pitch in the dirt, it is one less thing that he has to worry about and can focus more of his effort on the execution of his pitches.<br />
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I'll let <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/catcher-defense/" target="_blank">Fangraphs explain how they quantify Catcher Defense</a>:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>"Like all defensive stats, both rSB and RPP are centered around 0, meaning
that a score of zero is considered league average. Scores above zero are good,
and those below zero are bad.</i></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Note: these values are for each stat separately. If you would like tiers for
catcher defensive value in total, double the values of the above tiers
in order to get a quick-and-dirty estimate."</i></blockquote>
Given these metrics how do our candidates measure?<br />
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If you do as Fangraphs 'Note' tells you and add up rSB and RPP you will get the following:<br />
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Gomes 5.9<br />
McCann 2.2<br />
Saltalamachhia -1.6<br />
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This would put Gomes' defense at just about 'Great', McCann at slightly 'Above Average' and Jarrod Saltalamacchia approaching 'Below Average' in total catcher defense.<br />
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While Saltalamcchia has thrown out more runners than the other two he has been attempted on about twice as many times which speaks to the fact that the other teams don't fear his arm behind the plate and are daring him to throw them out, which he has been below average at best at in his career. This does not bode well for a long-term catcher as well whom will only get slower and less agile with age.<br />
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Numbers however are not the only factors when considering a player. McCann had shoulder surgery this past off season and for a position that throws just as many throws as the pitcher this is somewhat worrisome. Saltalamacchia and Gomes have not had major injuries to key body parts.<br />
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As mentioned Saltalamacchia's throwing is something that would need to be taken into consideration as the "yips" is something that could rear its ugly head at anytime, before doling out something long-term.<br />
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With McCann being the sexiest name as far as catchers go he will almost assuredly cost more than all the other catchers. I would guess that he gets at least a three to four year deal somewhere other than Atlanta, but if I am the Red Sox I pass on him at that length and being that he will be on the wrong side of 30 come next Spring Training.<br />
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Gomes will cost something in a trade, given his age, production, non-injury history and value (in terms of salary). Therefore you have to weigh, is what you're giving up plus the savings on Salty's contract demands worth it? I would say that one of the Indians needs is starting pitching which you could deal from a relative surplus depending on their demands. In the off season would you hesitate dealing the year of Jake Peavy an established veteran pitcher straight up for Gomes? I would. Or what about someone else who was cost-controllable like Doubront or Workman? I wouldn't think twice about this either. If Cleveland started talking about players like Barnes or Owens, then you'd certainly balk. But what about Webster? I digress.<br />
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Saltalamacchia is making 4.5 million this year so what would I deem to be an acceptable contract? At roughly the same age John Buck got a contract of 3 years 18 million. I believe Saltalamacchia is worth more than that. 3 years 23 million is the most that I would go for Saltalamacchia. I would go no longer than three years and while the money could fluctuate it is about length of contract not overall value. However, he is not a 10 million dollar per year player. Looking at just the salary, he would get a 3.1 million dollar raise per year for the next 3 years from his current salary which is a 70% pay raise from his current salary. You don't break the bank for flawed players, and given his age and current skill set this offer is more than fair.<br />
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There aren't many options but there are some. While the best option is to look into the trade market, ultimately I think the Red Sox strike a deal with Saltalamacchia and hope Blake Swihart makes strides in the minor leagues to supersede him in the future.<br />
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Stay Tuned,<br />
Norton<br />
<br />Nortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-83225607405649563252013-09-10T11:54:00.000-04:002013-09-10T11:54:21.091-04:00Outfield Paying the BillsMany people are looking for an explanation of how the "gritty", bearded Red Sox are pulling off such an outstanding season when most people, (<a href="http://vfromthecouch.blogspot.com/2013/01/new-years-prediction-for-boston.html" target="_blank">I'm not most people</a>), wrote them off before the first pitch. I'd say a healthier and more consistent rotation plays the biggest part, but I would say that the Red Sox outfield is the next place to look for an explanation to such a competitive, enthralling season.<br />
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Ellsbury and Victorino are two of the top three outfielders in the AL in terms of Wins Above Replacements. Given how remarkable they have been their WAR combined is only 1.2 WAR above Mike Trout aka Jesus Christ in velour pants. Anyway, back to the point, all of the teams that have two outfielders on the list above are very much alive in the playoff race, however The Red Sox have all three of their starting outfielders in the top 16 in the AL as well. (All of the outfielders on the chart qualify for the batting title in terms of PA).<br />
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First and foremost the Red Sox have stayed healthy this season. The list above had only 4 teams of the 12 that had 3 outfield candidates that earned enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. However, even without having Mike Trout the Red Sox have had the most productive outfield in the American League. Not including the Angels, because they are the outlier, look (below and to the left) at the next five teams in terms of outfield production: Orioles, Athletics Tigers, Rangers and Yankees. It's not a coincidence that these teams are in the thick of the pennant chases given that they are getting the production they are.<br />
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Ellsbury and Victorino have been dynamic at the top of the order. Ellsbury has 20 more stolen bases than his nearest competitor and is statistically the best base runner of all the outfielders that qualify. Not only has he had a very good offensive season with free agency pending, he has been the second best defensive outfielder on this list as well. The foot injury is troubling, but with a 7.5 game lead the Red Sox have the luxury of sitting him out. He played with it and stole bases for a week so I'm not entirely worried about the rest of this season however going into the off season I would have no choice but to bring up another injury when negotiating a deal, and I do think they need to explore a deal. (I'll save that for another post)<br />
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Ellsbury defensively, was second only, to Shane Victorino. <a href="http://vfromthecouch.blogspot.com/2012/12/sox-sign-first-baseman.html" target="_blank">I predicted that the Red Sox would sign Victorino based on other acquisitions the day before he was signed</a>, and also had spoke about how solid his defense would be in Fenway Park. I however had no idea we would be getting a vintage Evans performance in the largest RF in the Bigs. It also should not go unnoticed that Victorino has done a lot of his damage within the last month almost exclusively batting from the right side even against righties due to lingering hip and hamstring issues. The guy plays hurt and is still effective while playing with nagging injuries. It does not fall by the wayside Shane, I see you, I see you.<br />
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<i>(Sidenote: Major League hitters can hit fastballs, from any side of the plate. Michael Young said, <a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1207654/8/index.htm" target="_blank">"a Major League hitter can time a jet engine."</a> The biggest problem for a switch hitter going from seeing only the opposite arm throwing at him, is breaking pitches going a direction than they are used to. Yet he is continuing to get and mash fastballs. What kind of advanced scouting is happening? I can't be the only person that knows this, right?)</i><br />
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Daniel Nava has gone from relative obscurity to a full-fledged starting outfielder in the major leagues. He ranks 16th in terms of outfield Wins Above Replacement and for a guy that used to be the towel boy at his college baseball team, 1.6 Wins better than Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton and Nick Markakis this year makes all the difference in the world for a team that won 69 games last year. Daniel Nava was an afterthought coming into the season, so much so that Bill James didn't even have him in any projected lineup and had Ryan Kalish projections ahead of his. How many games has Ryan Kalish played at any level this year again? He very well could get Comeback Player of the Year if John Lackey wasn't in the same league.<br />
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This is not to belittle the contributions of Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz or any of the infield, but the outfield is far and away the best trio in the American League. It is not a surprise they are leading in run differential along with the best record in the Majors given the production they are receiving from foul pole to foul pole.<br />
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Stay Tuned,<br />
<br />
Norton<br />
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Nortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-55906282254935472722013-09-03T12:46:00.001-04:002013-09-03T12:46:19.026-04:00The Lackey EffectThe Red Sox don't have a starting pitcher that is as revered as Kershaw or Hernandez. But what they have in John Lackey this season is better than most and right now, he is the best healthy pitcher the Red Sox have. The healthy part of the Red Sox rotation right now looks as follows:<br />
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John Lackey has been the most consistent pitcher for the Red Sox all year and leads the staff in just about all advanced pitching metrics. But the fact that he doesn't lead the team in Wins is no where near indicative of how he has pitched. He has the lowest run support on the team at 3.77 with the other pitchers receiving almost 2 more full runs per game. Just to beat home the point of his lack of run support contributing to his losing record check the infographic below.<br />
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This is once again not to slight the season that Scherzer has had, but he gets more run support than any pitcher the Red Sox has and his win-loss record displays that. The Red Sox have been shutout six times during John Lackey's starts. In baseball terms, we call that "shit luck".<br />
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In looking at the<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=1507,4930,1051,1478,3543&sort=2,d" target="_blank"> pitchFX section on Fangraphs</a> it shows me the following velocity tidbits for John Lackey:<br />
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The striking thing is that he is only (on season's average) throwing .1mph harder than he was with a torn UCL in 2011. So what can we attribute this resurgence in John Lackey just looking at his velocity especially if you consider he's throwing his fastball at the same speed?<br />
<br />
Look at his secondary pitches, mostly his cutter (more of a slider) they are all slower than his 2011 version which creates more of a speed change to deal with as a hitter. In 2011, his elbow was torn and was most likely over-gripping his pitches to try and create some sort of feel. Now, in 2013, he is throwing pain-free which allows more confidence in snapping off a curve ball harder, yet gripping the ball softer in your hand. (Note: The harder two-seam fastball, also a big weapon, could explain the more than 7% jump in GB% from 2011 to 2013)<br />
<br />
This is where I make a proclamation I never thought I would make:<b> John Lackey is potentially your Game 1 starter for the playoffs when (not if) they clinch. </b><br />
<br />
A healthy Buchholz, for me, is a difference maker in winning the pennant but he doesn't need to start Game 1 of the playoffs and personally I don't want him starting the first game of the playoffs unless he is the pitcher he was at the beginning of the season, not something close to the pitcher, but THE pitcher.<br />
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Here are the postseason numbers for each of the starters including Buchholz:<br />
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Both Lester and Lackey are "battle-tested" very good pitchers in the playoffs with Lester pitching better despite a smaller sample. Buchholz pitched well in one start in 2008 and Peavy did not pitch well in two starts for San Diego pre-surgery but is now a different pitcher in terms of stuff on a team with a much better offense than his previous foray into October. Doubront has not yet experienced postseason baseball.<br />
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There are multiple outcomes for the playoff rotation all of which hinge on how Clay Buchholz pitches down the stretch:<br />
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Buchholz comes back and is just as dominant as he was in April and May then he should be the number one starter because given how much better he was than most other pitchers in the AL not just the Red Sox he gives you the best chance of winning Game 1.<b> (Rotation: Buchholz, Lackey, Lester, Peavy**)</b></li>
<li>Buchholz comes back and is not as dominant but is another above average pitcher then he would be slotted in the third spot in the rotation behind Lackey and Lester, in that order. <b>(Rotation: Lackey, Lester, Buchholz, Peavy)</b></li>
<li>Buchholz comes back and doesn't have it. This is not far-fetched. He has not pitched at the Major League-level in 3 months and now he's thrust into a pennant race. Despite pitching in the minors, there is a lot of rust to shake off and he may not have it. In which case, you leave Buchholz off the playoff roster entirely. You are not going to put a player in the bullpen and ask him to pitch high leverage innings with questionable health and/or stuff to get the job done. <b>(Rotation: Lackey, Lester, Peavy, Doubront)</b></li>
</ul>
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<i>**Why Peavy and not Doubront? Second half performances trend towards Peavy, and you are not trading away a young controllable player in Iglesias to sit Peavy if comparable performances are equal. "Peave" gets the nod. Other moves in the bullpen would be made for L-R balance. </i><br />
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Winning the game is ultimately the most important thing, however being the winning pitcher isn't. John Lackey has not only earned his spot in the playoff rotation, but atop the rotation is best for all parties.<br />
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Stay Tuned,<br />
NortonNortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-17320605826389139362013-08-30T06:48:00.000-04:002013-08-30T10:44:45.046-04:002013-2014 Pats Positional Primer: Part 1How's that for alliteration?<br />
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Football season is upon us ladies and gentlemen! The Patriots played their final preseason game tonight and will trim the last fat off of a roster that, in some ways, is much improved over last season. They lost some key players and have made some nice additions to their team that will, in the long term, reap great benefits. Let's take a look at the offensive side of the ball as there were some extremely interesting and controversial signings there.<br />
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The average Pats fan will hem and haw, repeatedly about the loss of Wes Welker and how it was a terrible move for the franchise. "Why the hell did they let Welkah, go? I swayah that Belichick is frickin' retahded sometimes." I assure you that's not the case. If Welker's replacement, Danny Amendola, can stay healthy, he will be better than Wes in a lot of <span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">ways. He's 27 years old which is 5 years younger than the former slot receiver. He's not listed as being taller than Welker but when you see him on the field, he definitely looks substantially larger in stature than the di</span>minutive #83. He's faster. You can see that he hits his top end speed much quicker than Welker ever did coming out of cuts. He's more elusive than Welker. Hell, as it stands right now he even has better hands than the former Pats receiver as Welker had the sixth most dropped passes in the NFL last season with 9. It's silly to think that Brady and Amendola will have the amazing rapport that Welker and Brady shared right out of the gate but, over time, that may be exactly what they share. It remains to be seen whether or not Danny can stay healthy for an entire NFL season though. Amendola carries the stigma of being a injury prone player but I tend to think that's a little exaggerated considering the freakishness of his injury last season. Danny was forced to have season ending clavicle surgery last season after breaking it in a game and having the clavicle pop inward instead of outward which caused it to come within millimeters of puncturing his trachea and aorta. The jury is still out as we move into the final week of the preseason but if all things go as we hope they will, Amendola will be a huge contributor right out of the gate as the Patriots number 1 receiving target.<br />
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You may have heard, and if you haven't then I may ask if you've been living under a rock all summer, that the Patriots signed quarterback Tim Tebow this off season. So many people make a huge deal over this signing because of who he is and the media circus that he brings to the team. In reality, he's nothing more than a third string quarterback who will never see any time on the field this season. No, they aren't going to create a separate playbook to incorporate him into the offense. For all you people that think they are going to draw up trick plays for him and he's going to see some time on the field. That's just not going to happen. The Pats aren't going to waste valuable practice time, and take time away from Brady's preparation, so they can work this guy into the offense. At MOST, he'll help the team in practice prepare for scrambling quarterbacks when they have one coming up on the schedule. He'll sit on the bench, probably pray a couple times a game and get way more camera time than he deserves. I'm not by any means a Tebow apologist as I think that there are probably 20 or more free agent quarterbacks that could come in right now and be a more productive backup than him. Who knows, this may be one of those pride moves for Belichick where he wants to prove he can make something of a man that nobody else could. I just don't think it's worth crucifying (see what I did there?) Belichick over. If I've learned anything over the years, it's that I trust the man in charge. <i>(Note that as I write this, there is a very good chance that Tebow could be cut before the season begins next Sunday)</i><br />
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As we're coming out of preseason I've been thinking about who the key contributors at every position will be and what the depth charts will look like heading in to the season. Offensively this is how I see things shaking out.<br />
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<b>Quarterback: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallet, Tim Tebow</b><br />
Tom Brady is Tom Brady. The guy is coming off of one of his best seasons he's ever had throwing for 4,827 yards, 34 touchdowns and a sterling 8 interceptions. The guy is like a fine wine. He get's better with age. This season will certainly have a learning curve in the early stages with all the new faces Tom will be throwing to but once they get some games under their belt, expect much of the same from Brady and the Pats. If we've learned anything from him in the past, Tom Brady makes it work regardless of who he is throwing the ball to and in most cases, he makes the players he's throwing to look like All-Pros. This is a make or break season for Ryan Mallet. He's not going to get many glimpses of game action unless, God forbid, Brady goes down for some reason, so it'll be hard to evaluate exactly how the 3rd year backup has progressed. He has been mentioned by many media outlets as a guy that could be traded for by a team that needs a starting quarterback and I'm not exactly sure he proved he can come in a be that guy for a team.<br />
<b><i>Brady projected stat line: 4,650 yds, 38 TDs, 10 INT</i></b><br />
<b><i>Mallet projected stat line: Let's hope he doesn't have one</i></b><br />
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<b>Offensive line: LT Nate Solder, LG Logan Mankins, C Ryan Wendell, RG Dan Connolly, RT Sebastian Vollmer</b><br />
Not much has changed here. Third year man Nate Solder is protecting Brady's blindside for a second straight season. You didn't hear a whole lot about him last year and I guess that's a good thing considering it means he wasn't doing anything wrong. He was sound and athletic on the edge, and much improved from his rookie season. He'll look to build on that this year. Mankins is the quintessential guard. An absolute mauler who loves nothing more than smashing the face of the defender in front of him. He's the unquestioned leader of this line and provides excellent pass and run support. An important cog in this offensive line is Vollmer. When he's healthy, he's one of the best right tackles in the NFL, but he seems to be one of those guys who always contracts a nagging injury that keeps him out way longer than you think it should. If this line can stay healthy, it will continue the trend of being one of the top 5 offensive lines in the NFL.<br />
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<b>Running backs: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, LeGarrette Blount, Leon Washington, Brandon Bolden</b><br />
Ridley is entering his third NFL season and his second as the feature back of this offense. He broke out last season amassing 1,263 rushing yards, 18 total touchdowns and a 4.4 yards per carry average. He's not overly flashy but he proved last year he's someone whom you can give the ball to consistently between the tackles on first and second down and will take care of the football. Shane Vereen is one of my key players to watch this year. Danny Woodhead was shown the door in free agency as he bolted to the Chargers and Vereen will fill his spot as the third down, pass catching back seamlessly. Vereen has the skillset to be a weapon out of the backfield and make you forget Danny Woodhead was even a human. Vereen has exceptional hands and top end speed making him a huge asset in the passing game and a player that Brady will look to often. Blount adds an interesting wrinkle into the Pats running game as he's something they haven't really had in the past few seasons; a real power back. Blount is a monster of a running back and hardly ever gets taken down by the first tackler. He'll be used in short yardage and goal line situations and should be a very useful runner out of the backfield. Washington has the reputation as one of the best kick returners in the NFL and that's mostly where you'll see him used, but don't be surprised if you also see him catching some passes out of the backfield and spelling Shane Vereen.<br />
<b><i>Ridley projected stat line: 1,215 yds, 10 rushing TDs, 3 receiving TDs 4.6 yards per carry.</i></b><br />
<b><i>Vereen projected stat line: 425 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, 410 receiving yards, 4 receiving TDs</i></b><br />
<b><i>Blount projected stat line: 360 yds, 6 TDs</i></b><br />
<b><i><br /></i></b>
<b>Wide receivers: Danny Amendola, Kenbrell Thompkins, Julian Edelman, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Matthew Slater</b><br />
Danny Amendola is going to be the key guy here. As I stated above he is going to be Welker's replacement and even more because I've heard that he'll be lining up a lot outside of the numbers as well as inside, which brings more versatility to his role. He's sure handed and from all accounts a fast learner so I expect him to have a huge season as the Patriots go-to wideout. Rookie Kenbrell Thompkins is a fantastic story. Kenbrell is a former juvenile delinquent and drug dealer who decided to clean his act up, go to the University of Cincinatti and take this football thing seriously. Signed as an undrafted rookie, the six foot receiver has burst on to the scene impressing the coaching staff and hurdling over several other rookies who looked to be ahead of him going into training camp. He's quickly earned the trust of Tom Brady and has had some great games and flashes in the preaseason which lead me to believe he'll be the wide receiver lining up on the outside opposite Danny Amendola. Julian Edelman will see a huge amount of time in the slot and be the shifty, run after the catch receiver we've seen him be in the past. Injury is something Edelman has to avoid this year as Brady will be depending on him more heavily now, than in years past. Aaron Dobson, the Patriots second round draft pick is a 6'3, 210 lb specimen at the wide receiver spot. He has freakish hands and leaping ability that will undoubtedly make for some highlight reel catches this year, much like this one from his senior year at Marshall: <a href="http://youtu.be/YCdFFFAxLz0" target="_blank">"The Catch"</a>. He could very well finish this season as the second or third best wide receiver on the team. Josh Boyce is a strong, compact rookie wideout from TCU who can come in and do some special things in this offense. He provides the team something they have lacked in recent years, a guy with 4.30 speed that can get down the field. I expect him to be utilized on a lot of deep routes, and screen passes as he can be dangerous after the catch in the open field.<br />
<b><i>Amendola projected stat line: 89 rec, 1,100 yds, 6 TDs</i></b><br />
<b><i>Kenbrell Thompkins: 56 rec, 840 yds, 5 TD</i></b><br />
<b><i>Julian Edelman: 50 rec, 660 yds, 3 TD</i></b><br />
<b><i>Aaron Dobson: 40 rec, 520 yds, 4 TD</i></b><br />
<b><i>Josh Boyce: 35 rec, 410 yds, 3 TD</i></b><br />
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<b>Tight Ends: Rob Gronkowski, Jake Ballard, Zach Sudfeld</b><br />
The legend of Gronk continues on to another season. Unfortunately this season it begins with Gronk sidelined as he recovers from a broken wrist and offseason back surgery. When he returns, you should expect him to quickly take back his role as the best tight end in all of football. Maybe not right away, but the man is a freak of nature and I wouldn't put anything past him. To start the season, you'll see a lot of Jake Ballard and Zach Sudfeld. Ballard was an up and coming TE for the Giants before tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl against the Patriots which put an abrupt halt to his development. He has good hands an athleticism for a guy that stands at 6'7 and is also proficient in the blocking game. Sudfeld is a very interesting prospect. From what I've seen so far he has a lot of the unteachable tools that Gronk has on the field. He's extremely athletic and adjusts very well in the air to make difficult catches look easy. Also, much like Gronk, he is very strong in the blocking game and will be a huge contributor in that area of the game as that's one of the best ways to get on Belichick's good side.<br />
<b><i>Gronkowski projected stat line: 50 rec, 700 yds, 5 TD</i></b><br />
<b><i>Ballard projected stat line: 30 rec, 290 yds, 2 TD</i></b><br />
<b><i>Zach Sudfeld: 30 rec, 350 yds, 3 TD</i></b><br />
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If all goes according to plan, and it rarely does, that's how I see it playing out. Obviously injuries, cuts, and whatnot will follow this final preseason game but I think this offense, while slightly young and inexperienced, has the potential to do some special things. It may take them a couple weeks to get into the full swing of things, but I would expect them to be the same high octane offense they usually are and put up 30+ points a game. They could possibly be a little more run oriented than we've seen in the past as they have a pretty special stable of running backs, but overall this offense will be a force to be reckoned with.<br />
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Keep your eyes peeled for my next piece where I take a look at the defensive side of the ball and what you should expect from your beloved Patriots in that area.<br />
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Be well.<br />
<br />
-ZHawkZak "ZHawk" Hawkinshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02110030743708412575noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-31631566321087849752013-08-28T12:51:00.000-04:002013-08-28T12:51:38.132-04:00Winning Isn't Everything...Or is it?There is a philosophical debate among the "Old School" and "New School" baseball lifers that comes to a head again with this year's AL Cy Young race. The "wins" crowd versus the advanced SABR crowd.<br />
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The three candidates are: Yu Darvish, Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer.<br />
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Some newer statistics that have really piqued my interest are the LOB-Wins, BIP-Wins, FDP-Wins and RA9-WAR. The Crawfish Boxes, the SBNation site for the Houston Astros, <a href="http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2012/9/5/3293720/talking-sabermetrics-fangraphs-new-fielding-dependent-pitching-stats" target="_blank">does a great job explaining LOB, BIP and FDP in depth</a>. But for expediency purposes here is the Reader's Digest version:<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The new stat "BIP-Wins" quantifies the difference between FIP and RA which is
due to the impact of BABIP. Conventional SABRmetrics attributes excessive or very low BABIP mostly to luck.
However, the quality of the defense behind the pitcher also affects the BABIP
level.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The new stat "LOB-Wins" quantifies the difference between FIP and RA which is
due to the stranding of base runners. In effect, LOB-Wins is a clutch-like
measure, in that the new stat reflects the timing of run prevention actions
(whether hits, Ks, BBs, pick offs, etc.). </blockquote>
FDP is the combination of both of these stats to give you a Fielder Dependent Pitching number of wins a pitcher is worth given all the things that a pitcher can control. so the formula to calculate FDP would like like: <b>FDP</b>= <b>BIP-Wins</b> + <b>LOB-Wins</b><br />
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Just looking at the raw numbers and the leaders in each of the categories the tally would go as follows:<br />
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Hernandez-8<br />
Darvish-6<br />
Scherzer-6<br />
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*Note: I am giving the RS/9 (Run Support/9 innings) edge to the lowest run support recipient*<br />
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Max Scherzer has a sparkling 19-1 record and receives almost 7.5 runs per game of run support from his juggernaut of an offense. 17 starts (out of his total 26) have resulted in him giving up two runs or less, not earned runs, runs. I find that looking at the amount of runs (not earned runs) can show you how the game was controlled by the pitcher. (A pitcher can give up 8 runs and only 1 earned, and although the defense was terrible he didn't keep them in the game) The LOB-Wins category certainly hurts Scherzer because on average when men are reaching base compared to the two others they are scoring far more often despite being only .10 away from Hernandez in ERA.<br />
<br />
Scherzer has an absurdly low .247 BABIP. I say absurd because his career BABIP is .304, which means that, despite pitching very well this year he is the recipient of a lot of good fortune for all the balls in play that he has relinquished. It would also seem to be very lucky because Detroit has one of the poorer defenses in the league.<br />
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Statistically Scherzer has the worst SIERA of the three (Still excellent, by the way) but the worst of the three. SIERA is defined as such by Fangraphs:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
SIERA adds in complexity in an attempt to <em>more accurately model what makes a
pitcher successful</em>. SIERA doesn’t ignore balls in play, but attempts to
explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing
runs. This is the strength of SIERA; while it is only slightly more predictive
than xFIP, SIERA tells us more about the <em>how</em> and <em>why</em> of
pitching.</blockquote>
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Felix Hernandez has a 12-7 record and receives 4.73 runs per game of run support from his paltry offense. He has 19 starts (out of 27 thus far) that he has given up 2 runs or less. Hernandez is walking fewer guys, and allowing fewer home runs than the other two per nine innings. Hernandez also has thrown more innings and barring injury will finish the year with more than the other two.<br />
<br />
He has the best GB% of the group, which probably works to his detriment because he plays for the worst defensive team in the league by almost every advanced metric. But every other time a batter gets to the plate they are hitting the ball on the ground and thus making less solid contact allowing for fewer balls to leave the yard. Hernandez is on one of the worst teams in baseball yet pitching better than Scherzer or Darvish in more comparable categories.<br />
<br />
Hernandez SIERA predicts that his ERA would be a little bit higher than his tally for the year but is still good enough for second on this list behind Darvish and in front of Scherzer.<br />
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Yu Darvish has a 12-5 record and receives a middling 5.25 runs per game of support from his offense. 11 (out of his 25 starts) he has given up 2 runs or fewer. Darvish has been a strikeout machine with 10 of his 25 starts recording double digit strikeouts including five starts of at least 14.<br />
<br />
It is expected that Darvish would be giving up more home runs (and he has) given that he plays in a far more hitter-friendly park than the other two pitchers. He also has a moderately high BB/9 at 3.11 and a full 1.0 BB more than the next player on the list.<br />
<br />
Darvish SIERA was actually a tick lower than his actual ERA but generally in line which means his stats are essentially as "non-fluky" as they come and he has pitched to his Skill-Independent level.<br />
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Ultimately, this should come down to which pitcher has pitched the best for their team. Darvish has been striking people out at a crazy reliever-like rate but ultimately he finishes third on my list in the Cy Young voting.<br />
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Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer are essentially equal in WAR meaning that they are both worth about the same amount of wins to their club as one another. Scherzer has been very lucky with regards how low his BABIP is considering his team's poor defense and Hernandez has essentially matched or bested him in just about every statistical category while playing on a worse defensive team while pitching more in line to his career norms in terms of BABIP.<br />
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The fact that Scherzer has 19 wins and only 1 loss is remarkable, but far more indicative of the fact that his team scores more than 7 runs per game during his starts and is arguably the class of the American League. Being that Hernandez is close to or better in terms of production in more categories than Scherzer you'd have to think he'd fare just as well with that kind of offense supporting him.<br />
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If I had a vote for AL Cy Young it goes to King Felix, by a nose, but Felix nonetheless.<br />
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Stay Tuned,<br />
<br />
Norton<br />
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Nortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-8808125090183021872013-08-20T10:12:00.003-04:002013-08-22T08:06:59.288-04:00Catching Up A recent Twitter discussion (aka someone that has no idea what they are talking about) has prompted me to resume my post here as the unadulterated catching (and let's be frank, baseball) guru at VFC.<br />
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I love me some Posey, really I do, but that is an irresponsible and almost criminal statement by one of my followers. One that requires my re-entry into the blogosphere, so for your reading pleasure, away we go!<br />
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First things first, as far as catchers go it's Yadier Molina and then everyone else but my list is as follows:<br />
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1. Yadier Molina</div>
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1A. Buster Posey</div>
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2. Matt Wieters</div>
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Catching is a defense-first position. Therefore when talking about the top catcher, defense is where you start, and ultimately where you end. The following table are defensive stats compiled from the beginning of 2012 forward.</div>
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For the non-SABR-savvy here are the definitions according to FanGraphs for the table at left:</div>
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i><strong>rSB: </strong>Calculated by The
Fielding Bible, Stolen Base Runs Saved measures how many “runs” a catcher
contributes to their team by throwing out runners and preventing runners from
attempting steals in the first place.</i></blockquote>
<b>RPP </b>and <b>rSB</b> are both centered at zero meaning that anything above zero is above average. Anything below zero is below average. (Note +5 is considered Excellent for those two stats). In terms of throwing out runners (<b>rSB</b>) Molina has contributed 9 runs which comes in a tick above Wieters and a full +10 runs better than Posey.<br />
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<i><strong>RPP: </strong>First calculated by <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-one-bites-the-dust/" target="_blank">Bojan Koprivica</a>, Passed Pitch Runs (RPP) calculates the number of runs above / below average a catcher is at blocking pitches.</i> </blockquote>
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<i><b>Calculated Passed Pitches (CPP)</b>. This is another
statistic derived from Bojan’s research, and it measures how many passed balls a
catcher should have allowed based on his pitches seen.</i></blockquote>
Given that I used the stat for projected pass balls, I also included actual pass balls (<b>PB</b>) showing that each player is spectacular at blocking balls. Generally, in terms of<b> RPP</b> (blocking pitches), it will show that they are all close but Yadier Molina, yet again, comes in ahead of both players by .6 runs; in a two year sample size, saving 6.6 runs just by blocking pitches, let that sink in.<br />
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<i><b>DRS: </b>Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is a defensive statistic calculated by
The Fielding Bible, an organization run by John Dewan, that rates
individual players as above or below average on defense. Much like UZR, players
as measured in “runs” above or below average.</i></blockquote>
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For a <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/drs/" target="_blank">more complete definition of DRS</a>, FanGraphs is a Godsend.<br />
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<i><b>rGFP</b>: A Good Fielding Play is recorded when a fielder does something to prevent an
advancement or record an out that we wouldn't typically expect from a fielder at
the position. It is a play that is made when, had the play not been made, no one
would have faulted the fielder for not making it. There are currently 27
different types of Good Fielding Plays. <b>rGFP</b> is calculated in terms of runs.</i></blockquote>
In the last 2 years, Yadier Molina has contributed +24 runs behind the plate (+15 is considered Gold Glove Caliber) while Posey has saved just two runs and Wieters has been a negative player in terms of <b>DRS </b>during the same time frame<b>. </b>If this isn't enough to appreciate the landslide in which Molina is ahead of these two defensively he has added 4 runs worth of "Good Fielding Plays" in the two years while the others are negative run players in this category.<br />
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<i><b>FSR</b>: The Fan Scouting Report is a yearly project conducted by <a href="http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/" target="_blank">Tom Tango</a> that rates
players on their defensive ability based on fan observations and voting. Fans
are asked to rate players on a 0-100 scale (with 100 being the best and 0 being
the worst) in a number of different categories: Instinct, Speed, Hands, Arm
Strength and Accuracy, First Step, etc. </i></blockquote>
Fan Scouting isn't an exact science but with enough people's input you can usually gain a consensus as to how good each player is at the aforementioned tools. The metrics are the same as the Defensive Runs Saved (centered around zero, positive is above average, negative is below average). Molina has taken this category as well.<br />
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The fact that Buster Posey plays occasional games at first base is also a detriment to his attempt at the apex of catching. A far less physically demanding position and is basically a break on the legs for the day while Molina is THE catcher for the Cardinals and similarly for Wieters and the Orioles. Defensively it's not really close, It's Molina. But we shall look at the offensive side because there is always two sides to every argument.<br />
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Buster Posey was the rightful winner of the 2012 NL MVP award, he was the best all-around player in the National League last year, helped lead his team to the playoffs (voting takes place at the end of the season not after the World Series), and plays the most physically demanding position in baseball. Last year he was the best all-around player and catcher in the league. He was worth 1.5 more wins than Molina last year, and deservedly was the single most valuable player to his team which ultimately wont he World Series.<br />
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Molina this year despite spraining his knee, a death sentence for most catchers, has one more hit than Posey and leads in most offensive categories compared to the other two, despite playing in 15 fewer games as the San Francisco backstop. Both players are worth 44% more runs than league average (WRC+) but Molina is leading or tied for the lead in most other offensive categories. Molina is having a spectacular offensive season, not as good as Posey's 2012, certainly better than his 2013, and is in the running for the NL MVP in 2013.<br />
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This year there is no question who the best all-around catcher is, its Yadier Molina and it's not really close. Given that defensively it's a landslide, his offensive performance is outperforming his peers despite playing in fewer games and his team is in the running for a playoff spot, Yadier takes the cake and probably the hardware as well.<br />
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Stay Tuned,<br />
Norton<br />
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Nortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-65602893112520062322013-01-02T14:43:00.000-05:002013-01-02T14:43:03.385-05:00New Year's Prediction for the Boston Sporting LandscapeThere are many thoughts that usually flood into my simple, yet complex mind, and they usually come in the form of predictions. However, I would be remiss if I didn't put these down on paper (e-paper?) just so that I can say, "I told you so" when I'm inevitably right. Let's hop to it:<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><strong>Red Sox</strong></span><br />
<ul>
<li><strong>The Red Sox will make the playoffs and the Yankees will not.</strong> Everyone remembers the September version of the Red Sox which had Dustin Pedroia and a collection of Babe Ruth All-Stars (I'm looking at you Jarrod Saltalamacchia) but a healthy lineup without catastrophic injury after catastrophic injury goes a long way. They will make the playoffs but most likely get crushed by Anaheim at some point along the way.</li>
<li><strong>John Lackey will win at least 15 games. </strong>He has not been healthy at all since he came to Boston, but, a year removed from all of his physical, emotional and mental issues I think he comes back with renewed spirit and despite some demonstrative displays on the mound he will have his best season in a Red Sox uniform.</li>
<li><strong>Jon Lester will be an All-Star. </strong>Jon Lester is the linchpin to the upcoming season for the Red Sox. I think it was very telling when David Ortiz says that he is the one person that he expects a big turn around from. That, and I have a friendly wager with a VFC Couch Potato that says he'll be there.</li>
<li><strong>Will Middlebrooks will have the best offensive season of all Red Sox position players. </strong>Had he have been healthy the whole year he would have been second in the ROY running (no one was coming close to that Trout guy) and he will be the most dynamic offensive player in Beantown. I like him for .295 AVG, 26 HR 108 RBI.</li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: large;"><strong>Patriots</strong></span><br />
<ul>
<li><strong>The Patriots will re-sign both Wes Welker and Aqib Talib to contract extensions. </strong>Wes Welker is too instrumental to the offense and Tom Brady, I mean the Patriots, can not afford to let him go. Belichick has spent too many high draft picks on secondary help that is less than league average and Talib has that play maker mentality. He is a little rough around the edges but he should be signed if he can be fit under the cap after Welker's extension is done.</li>
<li><strong>Josh McDaniels is the heir apparent to Bill Belichick. </strong>Bill Belichick's contract ends at the end of next year and it spoke volumes that they pulled him from St. Louis just before the Super Bowl last year and now when there are seven job openings including Philadelphia and Chicago (two very reputable, albeit mismanaged franchises) and he has said, "I like where I am". There is no doubt in my mind that McDaniels is the next head coach of the New England Patriots, but the question really is, when?</li>
<li><strong>The Patriots will win the Super Bowl. </strong>This is a team that was within a few minutes and a second horseshoe up Eli Manning's ass away from winning another Bowl last year. And this year they are better. There are only two teams that could possibly beat the Patriots and neither of them are in the AFC, San Francisco and Green Bay, but given the aforementioned Belichick statement above you wonder if this is close to a last hurrah, and I'm not betting against that man's game planning with something to prove one last time, if it is indeed one last time.</li>
</ul>
<strong><span style="font-size: large;">Celtics</span></strong><br />
<ul>
<li><strong>Avery Bradley is one of the pieces that the Celtics are missing. </strong>His on-ball defense is the best that I have seen since Bruce Bowen and if he can disrupt the passing lanes and add the energy that he gave the Celtics last year he should be good for a few more W's in the left hand column for Boston. That being said, he doesn't put them over the top.</li>
<li><strong>The Celtics will make an impact trade for a big man. </strong>The Celtics need someone that can rebound the ball and make an impact defensively. I don't know who it is, but I know that this man would be the difference in a playoff push for the Green. The Celtics have too much redundancy on their roster with all the two guards and they have an expendable piece in Brandon Bass that is unhappy with his current role (but can't be traded until January 15th or later). Do it Danny, get it done.</li>
<li><strong>Jared Sullinger needs to play more. </strong>I value Doc Rivers' talent evaluation like I value a medium rare steak (I value that with my life, don't go near my red meat) and when he says, "this kid doesn't play like a rookie" it doesn't get much higher praise for a first year player than that and he has a nose for the basketball. Especially now when the Celtics can't seem to get out of their own way some nights, this kid needs more PT.</li>
<li><strong>There is one more deep playoff run back in this team. </strong>This team is capable of beating any team any night but they need a legitimate big body that plays defense and rebounds. A healthy Avery Bradley neutralizes Dwayne Wade and then you have LeBron vs the rest of the Celtics and I'll take my chances.</li>
</ul>
<strong><span style="font-size: large;">Bruins</span></strong><br />
<ul>
<li><strong>Jeremy Jacobs needs to leave the Bruins organization. This is not a prediction, just an educated opinion. </strong>I'm not the biggest hockey fan but I am big on loyalty to a fan base, especially in Boston and the Boston Bruins owner is the man leading the charge in the continuation of this lockout. He is a hypocrite in the fact that he is an advocate for no deals longer than five years for players yet right before the lockout he OK'd a 6-year deal for Tyler Seguin. And he is still making money because he owns the TD Garden, so he could care less if the Bruins are on the ice or not. He is the main proponent that this lockout is going on and there are a lot of people in this region/country that want hockey back. </li>
</ul>
There it is, in concrete form for you all to ridicule and or stare at in astonishment, and most likely the latter. But I would like to take the time out to thank all the Couch Potatoes out there because without you I would just be another douche bag with an opinion. Here's to 2013.<br />
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Stay Tuned<br />
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NortonNortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-41958926252553898872012-12-19T06:58:00.002-05:002012-12-19T06:58:54.228-05:00What's Doing on Yawkey WayThere are a lot of questions surrounding the way the Red Sox have been conducting business in this off season entering 2013. To me, its simple, it's about two things, believing in the player development system (past and future) and not over-extending yourself for mediocre players/talent. <br />
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Any deal that totals three years or less in duration almost can not be viewed as a bad contract. Do not look at the AAV (average annual value) of the deal because the Red Sox were awarded a 'reset' button last July and have the money to spend. Are they overpaying? Absolutely. However ,coming off a last place finish, two miserable seasons in a row, and three seasons of not reaching October baseball the money has to speak and they have no choice but to overpay for some sort of incentive to come play in Beantown.<br />
Most people are viewing Victorino, the newly signed Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli (if the deal gets completed), Johnny Gomes, and Koji Uehara as secondary talent. You would be correct. This is because they believe in the core of their team, when healthy, is still good. Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Will Middlebrooks, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury are the core of the team as currently constituted. They believe with the right manager at the front of the ship, and projecting players to play closer to their career norms rather than career worsts, they are capable of competing in the AL East. What they think was needed was complimentary players and depth instead of an overhaul and the sudden influx of cash has allowed them to go this route.<br />
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You'll notice that of all the players they've been signing, none of them have the stigma of losing compensatory draft picks after signing. This is also important because with those first two rounds they have had players come up through their system such as: Dustin Pedroia (2nd), Jon Lester (2nd), Justin Masterson (2nd), Clay Buchholz (1st), Jacoby Ellsbury (1st); just to name a few. So, they clearly feel that they can evaluate the top-end talent in a draft well. Therefore, you play to your strengths and load up (or not lose) the draft picks in the first couple rounds of the Draft.<br />
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The Red Sox have also upgraded their scouting department with the hiring of Eddie Bane as to not have to have the "bridge" years in the future and to re-develop the machine that was so bountiful with talent in the early 2000's. Eddie Bane was the talent evaluator in Anaheim that drafted Mike Trout, Kendrys Morales, Jered Weaver and Mark Trumbo. And before you say it, "what about the old draft busts, Brandon Wood and Dallas McPherson?" Bane was not part of that scouting team that inked those highly touted, but widely busted players, <a href="http://nesn.com/2012/10/eddie-banes-hiring-show-red-sox-are-tweaking-new-school-approach-to-talent-evaluation/" target="_blank">I looked it up</a>.<br />
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The Ryan Dempster deal also pleases me because once again they got him for a minuscule two-year deal, it doesn't matter the money and it adds stability (has thrown 200+ innings in four out of the last five years with an average ERA of 3.73) to the back end of the rotation. This comes with a caveat though, if it all possible he needs to be handled with kid gloves when going up against the powerhouse offenses (Texas, Anaheim, Detroit and NYY). Which is why I would go with a pseudo-six-man rotation, and I would use someone like Franklin Morales or Alfredo Aceves as a spot starter so as to not over-expose the soft-throwing Dempster (average 2012 vFA: 89.6mph) to those lineups. If you go by the formula of 1-million dollars per win he should eclipse the 13 win plateau and therefore be worth his contract for the next two years.<br />
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While they have already signed Koji Uehara they should still be on the market for a late inning power reliever that could close if necessary. Which is why I think they need to pursue Joel Hanrahan to compete for the closer job. What they need is someone that throws hard and can put people away at the back end of the bullpen because Daniel Bard is not a sure thing right now, and my personal preference is to have power arms anchoring the bullpen. <br />
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Although his walk rate is up stockpiling fireballers at the back end of your bullpen is a recipe for success, and Hanrahan has had one of the leagues fastest fastballs for the past few years.<br />
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The other thing that the Red Sox are doing right now is putting a huge bunch of faith in their top prospects. There is nothing wrong with that, but it is extremely risky to think that every one of Bogaerts, Brentz, Bradley, Barnes and others are all going to pan out. But it shows that you have faith in the scouting and talent evaluation department which is the way to reload for the future. <br />
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These free agent deals are all deals that should serve as the perfect bridge to the next wave of the aforementioned "Killer B's".<br />
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Shane Victorino, three year deal. Ellsbury will be leaving at the end of the year (most likely) which gives the Red Sox leverage (can play center field, has speed, could hit lead off if need be) if you want to trade him, and also with Jackie Bradley Jr slotted for a late 2013 to early 2014 call-up the move doesn't block any ones progression unless for some reason they re-sign Ellsbury. There isn't much precedent though for letting a player get all the way through arbitration without signing them to a deal so I wouldn't anticipate them re-signing him at year's end.<br />
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Ryan Dempster, two year deal. Barnes will likely not be up with the big club until 2014 at the earliest which also would not impede any player's development.<br />
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Stephen Drew, classic Scott Boras one year "Pillow Contract". This should serve as a bridge to Bogaerts, but it also allows you to keep Iglesias in the minors to see if he can actually swing the stick because you still have to be able to hit your body weight in the majors, it doesn't matter how good your glove is. This might also be a sign that they have soured on Iglesias because they don't think he can hit. However he is still just 22 and has room/time to grow. Drew provides more balance to the lineup hitting from the left side, and should at least provide adequate defense. <br />
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David Ross, two year deal. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is a lumberjack playing catcher and shouldn't be allowed to put on a chest protector. Ryan Lavarnway whom the Red Sox should turn the reigns over to is still young and would need a veteran mentor catcher to learn from and Ross is as solid as they come defensively. Napoli shouldn't see many games behind the plate as the Red Sox don't have another first baseman that is really capable of playing there. Ross allows the flexibility to move Saltalamacchia, play Napoli solely at first base and play a more prominent role as a backup than most teams number two catchers.<br />
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These moves all look trivial right now, but the business model is sound because they have the money for it. I'll let the rest of the off season play out before I reserve judgement on the team but the allocating of funds is not something that I have a problem with, and you shouldn't either.<br />
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Stay Tuned<br />
<br />
Norton<br />
<br />Nortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-16653576777773600772012-12-04T11:57:00.000-05:002012-12-04T11:57:29.187-05:00Sox Sign a First Baseman<div style="text-align: center;">
<strong>Mike Napoli signs with the Red Sox for 3 years, 39 million (13 million per year)</strong></div>
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First things first, the Sox are to be commended for being patient with the Mike Napoli signing and sticking to a three year deal instead of going for the fourth year, regardless of the higher AAV (average annual value). Given the current market of players, and the Red Sox financial situation this is the best thing for them to do, over pay for the players they want but do it on their terms with regard to length. </div>
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The Red Sox are actually doing intelligent business right now. They are building ridiculous depth given the rash of injuries that have happened the last three years. Not only that they are molding their lineup to fit their ballpark like the Yankees do, what the Red Sox have been lacking the last few years is power from the right side of the box. With a healthy Wil Middlebrooks, Napoli and Johnny Gomes (on a part-time basis) they finally have the thunder they need from that side of the plate.</div>
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I don't dislike the Napoli signing, but I think that some of the expectations need to be tempered. Much like with players such as Julio Lugo and Carl Crawford they killed the Red Sox before the became part of the team. Napoli won't be facing the Red Sox lackluster pitching of 2012 this year and will not have a .400 average at Fenway Park.</div>
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To me, this move also has a ripple effect, and I think it spells the end of Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Thank God). The Red Sox will not keep four catchers (David Ross, Ryan Lavarnway, Mike Napoli and Saltalamacchia) on the roster. Lavarnway has options left but he really doesn't have anything left to prove in AAA and is cheaper than Saltalamacchia (fiscal responsibility, remember?), Ross was signed to a 2-year deal and Napoli is too similar to Saltalamacchia to have in the same lineup.</div>
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Not only were their peripherals nearly identical in HR, R, RBI and WAR, but they are both minus defenders to boot, Napoli moreso than Saltalmacchia at catcher. Napoli however, walks a lot more than Saltalamacchia along with being able to play first base makes him more valuable because of his ability to get on base more and play another position. 2012 was a down year for Napoli in a lot of categories and I actually believe he will have a slightly better year average-wise (probably closer to .250) which will in turn bump up the OBP over .350.</div>
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As previously stated the Red Sox are conducting smarter business in structuring their team to fit the ballpark, however they are taking a calculated risk in 2012. The Red Sox have sacrificed defense at 1B and LF in Napoli and Gomes respectively, which is a gamble, but thinking along those lines it would make sense that they sign a plus defender to be in right field, and given the way the market is shaping up, I expect the Red Sox to sign Shane Victorino whom plays a Gold Glove quality right field. Let's look at the three players defensively:</div>
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Above is the total number of innings they've played at those positions during their Major League careers and easily what can be deduced is that Gomes is a butcher. But they are hoping that the HR production/Fenway wall will negate how porous he is defensively. Napoli is a slightly below average fielder at first base which means that Middlebrooks is really going to have to work on his throws across the diamond because Gonzalez isn't there to bail him out anymore, but he shouldn't cost many runs over the course of the year. Knowing that Fenway's right field is one of the most difficult in all of baseball to play, they almost have no choice but to go get a defensive stud and Victorino certainly fits that bill, add in the fact that he's a switch hitter with speed, he fits anywhere in the lineup.</div>
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Things are finally shaping up in Beantown and the Red Sox are making sound fiscal business decisions. There may be light at the end of this tunnel, and it may not be that long before they find it.</div>
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Stay Tuned</div>
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Norton</div>
Nortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-63774701704876921232012-11-16T10:24:00.001-05:002012-11-16T13:41:14.752-05:00Rounding the Bases and an AL MVP DebacleIt seems to be a never-ending update with little to show thus far for the Red Sox as far as "winning the off season" but they are sticking to a method and that is to be commended. I'm also going to wax poetically on why the BBWAA is the biggest group of knuckleheads this side of the mighty Missus-Sip And away we go...<br />
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<strong>The Blue Jays Acquire an Ace a Number 3 and a cornerstone shortstop-</strong><br />
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I'm not going to lie to ya'll, it cuts deep as a Sox fan when a division rival pulls off a blockbuster for what would seem to amount to pennies, but I'm glad the Red Sox, whom were in discussions for the same deal, passed on this one, because according to sources the Marlins asked for Middlebrooks, Bogaerts and Doubront which is absolutely not a good deal for Boston.<br />
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This move, with the teams currently constituted as they are, doesn't put the Blue Jays at the forefront of the AL EAST but what it does is add more parity to a very competitive division. What I mean by this is that it is widely-known that it usually takes 95 wins to win the division. With the additions that Toronto has made it should allow for them not to be a punching bag and could allow for as much as 3 less wins for whichever team wins the AL East.<br />
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As of right now my standings look like this:</div>
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Tampa Bay Rays</div>
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New York Yankees</div>
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Toronto Blue Jays</div>
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Boston Red Sox </div>
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Baltimore Orioles</div>
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Whoa, what did he just say? Yes I put the Orioles in last place in the division because as of right now, I believe that they were a fluke and the slapstick pitching staff they had was more of an anomaly than the start of something big. The Orioles were a staggering 29-9 in one run games last year and I believe that their accomplishments are going to be hard to duplicate and unless the obtain at least one premium starter that they will regress significantly. </div>
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Buck Showalter did a masterful job with his bullpen but knowing the volatility of relievers from year to year I am not willing to put them ahead of a healthy Red Sox team that is going to be far better with the right manager. This is not to say that the Orioles will not compete. The AL East might be the most balanced and competitive division when the off season is all said and done.<br />
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I still like the Red Sox pitching despite a down year more than the Orioles staff and the impact of a healthy Ortiz, Middlebrooks and (possibly?) motivated Ellsbury going into his walk year. I am calling the Sox and Orioles offense equal as of right now, but I still give the edge on the bump to Boston.<br />
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<strong>The Red Sox lack of a Hitting Coach</strong><br />
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The Red Sox are still in the process of hiring a hitting coach and until he signed with the Marlins, Tino Martinez was rumored to be in the running for that post which in my opinion would have been a very good outside the box hire.<br />
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However, it's time to get a body in here, and my vote is for Rudy Jaramillo. He was the hitting coach for all of those powerful lineups in Texas for the last decade and a half. He has the pedigree to handle any ego that is still left in Boston and the experience to command respect that a man at that post deserves.<br />
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<strong>A Pre-Emptive Extension for Dustin Pedroia</strong><br />
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This is a spectacular development for Boston from every standpoint. Pedroia despite a little bump in the road mostly attributed to an inept manager is everything that embodies what you want in a baseball player and it makes business sense. He has two years left on his deal and Robinson Cano is due to hit the market in 2013, so by signing him now to your price, you don't have to use Cano as a barometer for Pedroia's contract.<br />
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So right now the benchmark for Pedroia is Ian Kinsler's 5 year 75 million dollar deal. I think a five year pact is a good place to start and 80 million dollars which would make him the highest paid 2B in terms of AAV at the time of the contract which will for sure drive Cano's contract up and hopefully financially tie the hands of the Yankees with the new luxury tax rules.<br />
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<strong>Miguel Cabrera over Mike Trout is a Travesty</strong><br />
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Miguel Cabrera had a spectacular offensive season and I will not take that from him. However, Miguel Cabrera winning the Most RBI Award, I mean the MVP Award is the most irresponsible vote of all time. If you want to talk about the value of a player there are three facets of baseball, there is hitting, fielding, and base running. <br />
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Here's the breakdown:</div>
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(Sidenote: You will notice that RBI is not on this chart because RBI is a pointless statistic that has more to do with ancillary team accomplishments compared to individual performance.) </div>
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Mike Trout had an unparallelled season in the history of baseball. No player in baseball history has ever hit 30 HR, scored more than 120 runs and stolen more than 45 bases in one season. He had the highest WAR over the course of a season since a guy named Barry Bonds in 2004 but if you want to go with someone without a PED past than you're looking at Albert Pujols in 2003 and before that Griffey Jr. in 1996. You're talking about one of the Top 10 non-steroid seasons in the last 30 years in terms of WAR</div>
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If you want to talk about Cabrera "carrying his team to the playoffs" you are completely ignoring the fact that the Angels had one, a better record than Detroit with 89 and 88 wins respectively. Two, the fact that the Tigers got to play the Royals and Twins to end their season along with almost twenty times a piece throughout the year. Three, saying that Cabrera did it alone is to completely degrade the contributions of Austin Jackson, Prince Fielder, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer who all had great seasons as well. The Angels by and large faced a lot stiffer competition throughout the year which certainly can't be overlooked.</div>
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The real advantage that Cabrera had is that he played about 3 weeks more games than Trout did. That is not to go unnoticed, however, despite that 3 week discrepancy Trout had one more walk in three weeks less time at the plate. When talking about value at the plate the worst thing you can do at the plate is not strike out, the worst thing you can do is ground into a double play, because the name of the game is not making outs and making two outs in one at bat is worse than one. With that knowledge Cabrera grounded into 28 double plays to Trout's 7. If my math is correct that is a 300% increase in double plays grounded into thus creating two outs with one swing instead of one.</div>
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Anyone that says Cabrera was "OK" at third base has never watched a baseball game plain and simple. Moving to third base for the sake of the team is admirable, but that has no bearing on an MVP vote and his defense, or lack there of was atrocious. If the ball was hit right at him, and not to either the left or right he would make the play, he has a good arm, but his lack of range severely hurt the Detroit pitching staff throughout the course of the year. Mike Trout played a more difficult defensive position but let's let the numbers speak for themselves:<br />
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Both players played different positions for their team so this doesn't take into account Cabrera at 1B or Trout in LF or RF but both of their primary positions. The other caveat is that CF is the more difficult position, not by a lot, but you have more ground to cover and many more angles to play than thrid base. As you can clearly see, Mike Trout in the DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) saved 23 runs as opposed to Cabrera who essentially let 4 runs in defensively over the course of the season.<br />
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RZR is defined by Fangraphs as:<br />
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<em>Revised Zone Rating (RZR)</em> measures, “the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out”</div>
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Think of these as a percentage like a grade in high school Mike Trout got a 95 which is an A while Miguel Cabrera got either a D- or an F.</div>
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The Out of Zone rating had Mike Trout make more than double the amount of plays outside of his "zone" on defense in three weeks less time mind you. As far as all of the other zone ratings he is literally double the defensive player that Cabrera is, so I'll just let you continue to digest the landslide that took place while standing in the field.<br />
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Value is something that should be looked at thoroughly for the three aspects of the game of baseball and the archaic Baseball Writers Association of America members need a refresher course to get a better understanding of the game. Ultimately had Mike Trout hit one percentage point higher than Miguel Cabrera he would have been a landslide victory so for him to lose in a landslide is a travesty.<br />
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Stay Tuned<br />
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NortonNortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-74391855173824550452012-11-06T11:23:00.000-05:002012-11-06T13:31:09.041-05:00The Direction is PromisingIn the last two weeks the direction of the Red Sox has taken a drastic U-Turn from an abyss and towards a relative level of respectability among the Boston landscape. We've got a few topics to cover so we might as well get started.<br />
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<strong>David Ortiz is re-signed a 2 year 26 million dollar deal (incentives can boost up to 30 mil.) </strong><br />
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From a business standpoint Ortiz bent the Red Sox over a barrel and really laid the wood to 'em. Before you cut my nuts off for blaspheming think about this. When Ortiz was 35 they picked up his 12.5 million dollar option and didn't give him a multi year deal. When Ortiz was 36 he accepted their arbitration offer of 14.58 million and didn't give him a multi year deal. Now when he's 37, and coming off an injury that cut his season in half you give him a two year deal? Where's the logic? Answer: Pink hat's need to be appeased, but at least this was a baseball move which is more than they can say for the Carl Crawford signing.<br />
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There is also the question of motivation. Ortiz has been pissed off and motivated to produce for the last couple years. Now, what happens in 2013 where he doesn't have to hit to get a contract for the next year? The last time he had the security of a contract he had the mighty struggles that almost got him cut from the team.<br />
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While I much rather would have held Ortiz to a one year pact they could have spent the money worse. At thirteen mil a year his base pay is actually less than what the qualifying offer was (13.3 million) and will most likely have gone up next year. Therefore by signing this deal he has forfeited at least $600,000 in what would be part of a guaranteed salary. If you subtract that from the potential money he could reach with incentives ($4 million) people are quibbling over 3.4 million dollars. With a guaranteed team salary in the 40 million range and what will be closer to 70 after all arbitration's and raises take into effect, they have around 90 million dollars that they could spend for this year (if they find it judicious to spend), and I honestly have no problem with giving Ortiz an extra 1.7 million dollars per year for the next two years if he meets the incentives.<br />
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<strong>The lack of a contract for Cody Ross</strong><br />
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I for one am for this move because everyone is overrating him just because he is a great teammate and "dirt dog". Unfortunately he is not as indispensable as all the pink hats are making him out to be. Let's look at the following chart of available OFs:<br />
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What the Red Sox are in need of are on-base machines to "keep the line moving" as they say. Something they also need to limit is the amount of strikeouts, the amount of strikeouts they had with RISP last year was something out of a Bad News Bears movie.<br />
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Players A, B and D each led four of the categories while Player C led three. Players E and F led one and none respectively.<br />
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Player A was clearly the most superior player as he generated more Wins Above Replacement at 5.3 and was a spectacular fielder. His BABIP would indicate that he'll probably regress a little next year but he should definitely remain in consideration<br />
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Player B was probably the best all-around offensive player in this group but a suspension for PED's cut his season short. He needs to remain in play to be signed by the Red Sox because of the massive cut he will have to take in pay as a free agent.<br />
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Player C ranked last the most in four categories, however he also played the most games and had more opportunities to fail (or succeed). This player is more dynamic and is a switch-hitter which is something the Red Sox could desperately use. This was statistically one of Player C's more sub par years but his durability alone must keep him in the race, for now.<br />
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Player D clearly has the most power as three of the four categories he leads are power related but doesn't bring much else to the table as he had the least amount of hits, not one stolen base and was statistically the worst fielder, therefore he's out. <br />
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Player E had a solid all-around peripheral year (.325 avg, FLD 2.3) while playing many positions but he doesn't walk enough and was basically a part-time/match up player. I would not sign him to be a starting OF. If he was a fourth OF and backup IF he makes perfect sense, but for a starter, nope.<br />
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Player F led the group in strikeouts and generated the least WAR. He didn't do anything spectacularly but for the most part didn't do anything overly bad outside of striking out far too much, but the Red Sox need players that are more than just another player.<br />
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Just based on the numbers Players A, B and C should be the choice for the OF that the Red Sox need. <br />
Players A, B and C should not receive more than 2-3 year deals and some may receive one-year pacts.<br />
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For me, I'd like to see what player B looks like a year removed from a positive PED test before I offer him a contract unless players A and C are off the map, and we are looking for a bargain outfielder.<br />
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Players A and C would equally have my interest piqued on two year deals. Neither of these players are Cody Ross. In fact, Cody Ross didn't even make the second cut.<br />
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<strong>Mike Reinhold out as head physical therapist</strong><br />
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This is actually a positive development. Not because someone lost their job because that's never a positive development, but because they are finally addressing that there is something amiss in the Boston infirmary.<br />
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Reinhold was notoriously a "Theo guy" and butted heads with Valentine (who didn't?). But a manager trumps a head physical therapist and Reinhold needed to find a way to work with a new regime and he didn't do it, bottom line. The communication was not good between the medical and coaching staff and I am not blaming all that on Bobby V. The handling of certain medical treatments in the last half decade has been suspect to say the least and it was definitely time to fully cleanse the situation.<br />
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It would not surprise me if Reinhold ends up in Chicago with Theo in some similar role but for now the Red Sox definitely made the correct choice, which is not something that has been said often enough lately.<br />
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Overall the general direction of the Red Sox is trending upwards and I wish I knew if it was because Larry Lucchino is less involved or Ben Cherrington was given more of a voice. <br />
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Stay Tuned<br />
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NortonNortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-88128825208447153012012-10-25T10:36:00.000-04:002012-10-25T11:20:10.130-04:00The State of the Nation is Due For a TradeThe Red Sox officially have someone manning the ship, and even though he isn't the candidate I fully endorse, he is fully capable despite little success in Toronto. Oh yeah, I have yet to give you the best part; he's not Bobby Valentine.<br />
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With regards to the compensation they gave up nothing so it's a win. For the people that are of the "no coach is worth any player" school of thought, had Mike Aviles not been the player given to the Blue Jays for Farrell he would have been non-tendered. Mike Aviles is not a starting Major League shortstop. He is an adequate utility player, however you already have a cheaper, faster utility player in Pedro Ciriaco therefore, you obtained the manager that you coveted and a player (who may or may not pan out, it really doesn't matter either way) in David Carpenter for someone that has been replaced on your roster and that you were not going to even extend a contract to, that's called winning a negotiation.<br />
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The off season has just begun for Boston but the work is nowhere near complete and before I can look forward we need to rehash the past for just a split second longer. <br />
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Back in the winter of 2003 John Henry, Larry Lucchino tried to trade Manny Ramirez for Alex Rodriguez. Here is the 2003 statistics for the two:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuHw6hrd6_m3PF5T-UJSwFZ4ag_rIIzqnzMFspmdmjzOKEu8c8H1bzSrqqXj9uFMumqsoOa45cGhGg4Tk1e3sBm9cgZ7lZTx7_fpLhJ-5Co6KJnK4cC2rBbk54lnF_lNjELjlYPchRyb8/s1600/ManvArod.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="42" oea="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuHw6hrd6_m3PF5T-UJSwFZ4ag_rIIzqnzMFspmdmjzOKEu8c8H1bzSrqqXj9uFMumqsoOa45cGhGg4Tk1e3sBm9cgZ7lZTx7_fpLhJ-5Co6KJnK4cC2rBbk54lnF_lNjELjlYPchRyb8/s400/ManvArod.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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At that time just speaking baseball-wise this is as even a trade that you can get. Not only would Alex Rodriguez have been part of the fold but Magglio Ordonez also would have been in a Red Sox uniform. Now why would you want to trade for Alex Rodriguez and the largest contract in baseball at the time, when you have his statistical equal? The answer, marketability. Alex Rodriguez was more marketable, he was even more high profile than Ramirez and when Larry Lucchino and Tom Werner saw that this was possible they jumped at the time to make a bigger profit. (Anyone want to buy a brick?) <br />
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Eventually the MLBPA nixed the deal because of the money changing hands and money Rodriguez would have deferred, but since then, the Red Sox have used the same business model. When the television ratings dipped after 2009 and the Red Sox lost to the Angels what did they do? Made a splash in free Agency with John Lackey who was the best pitcher on the open market. When they didn't make the playoffs because of a rash of injuries in 2010 and the end of year ratings dipped again. They signed Carl Crawford and traded for Adrian Gonzalez, for four months they were the best team in baseball despite getting nothing from Crawford and ratings were booming. Then the Collapse, Bobby Valentine and The Trade happened and we're sitting here with a collective thumb right where a thumb usually doesn't go.<br />
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Does anyone see the problem with the aforementioned business model? On the surface making a splash to drive team interest when it's waning, which would add buzz/ticket sales/revenue makes all the sense in the world, but a business decision can't take precedent over an actual baseball decision if you want a successful team.<br />
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The thing that the Red Sox are seriously lacking heading into 2013 is a middle of the order number 3 hitter. Unless Josh Hamilton will take a 1-2 year deal then I want no part of him. And Justin Upton has all the potential in the world but he is not a sure thing, and it would be hard to give up commodities for anything less than a sure thing. The Red Sox must deal for an impact bat. This is to restore team interest as well as a sound baseball decision.<br />
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It is with this in mind that I suggest the following trade:<br />
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<strong>Red Sox Trade Felix Doubront, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Bryce Brentz and Allen Webster</strong></div>
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<strong>Minnesota for Joe Mauer , Scott Baker and 40 million dollars</strong><br />
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Much like the upcoming election, fiscal responsibility is going to be a very big key going forward with the Red Sox organization. The Twins need controllable young pitching and power in their lineup. Which is why in this case I'd give a Major League ready starter and two very good prospects along for a little more salary flexibility for the future. </div>
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Joe Mauer doesn't turn 30 until the start of the next season and is still an elite hitter. I would not acquire him to be the starting catcher. I acquire him to be the starting first baseman and backup catcher and hand the reigns to Ryan Lavarnway. Thinking further, when inter league play comes about you move Ortiz to first, and put Mauer behind the dish.</div>
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Looking at his last three years shows us that the injury year in 2011 was the aberration and that he is back to producing at a close to elite level.<br />
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In 2012, he was still a top 25 player in terms of generating wins for his team and what the Red Sox need to do more than anything is win baseball games. Forgive me for sounding like a broken record but how do you win games? By scoring runs. How do you score runs, by getting on base and of anyone in baseball with at least 500 plate appearances do you know who had the highest OBP? That would be one Joe Mauer at .416. You look at the FLD numbers and see a -3.9 and while this is not the best way to trend, it was his first year playing first base on a more regular basis and I think will actually improve in 2013.</div>
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Haven't convinced you yet? Let's think about the ballpark the Red Sox play in and look at Joe Mauer's career spray numbers:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghiT_GMgTR8x0-1HIcZ5HFdNJAM5ks9ZsbhKnVxqcVvbRdbkcpy97j12kiB8kErbAEmAD-DdROPwTW54jaNp6A-fz48cG2LaB8zw0cBVQlA70CORFCm1e134m5gsS_k_QNiN0EGodV1jQ/s1600/MauerSpray.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="42" oea="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghiT_GMgTR8x0-1HIcZ5HFdNJAM5ks9ZsbhKnVxqcVvbRdbkcpy97j12kiB8kErbAEmAD-DdROPwTW54jaNp6A-fz48cG2LaB8zw0cBVQlA70CORFCm1e134m5gsS_k_QNiN0EGodV1jQ/s400/MauerSpray.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />These numbers represent his career breakout by the field he hit the ball into. Based on the numbers it would not be over-reaching to say that he is a line drive to the opposite field hitter. Anyone see where I'm going with this? Joe Mauer's natural swing is to left field on a line. He hits more fly balls to left as well which in a small left field park is just one more thing to add to Joe Mauer's mystique and I don't think hitting .375 is out of the question.</div>
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ISO is a relatively new stat that shows the isolate power league average is approximately .145 so, to left field, in two far more spacious parks he has been damn near Ruth-ian. Is there any better park in baseball for that kind of swing than Fenway Park? </div>
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Joe Mauer still has 6 years and 138 million dollars left on his deal which is why you ask for 40 million of salary relief. However, we'll round to 38 million so that we are left with 6 years 100 million which is essentially a 16 and 2/3 million AAV and who wouldn't want Joe Mauer for under 17 million dollars per year for the next 6 years.</div>
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Scott Baker is coming off Tommy John surgery and would need to be eased back into a rotation but to have someone like Franklin Morales available as well would make that transition seamless in sort of a rotating number 5 pitcher. He is however one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.<br />
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On average he is giving approximately three more wins above a run of the mill pitcher. I'd like to pay careful attention to FIP and xFIP and use the following chart for context.</div>
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The Chart is the same for a baseline for both FIP and xFIP. What FIP and xFIP is defined as: </div>
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<em>Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)</em> measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher <em>can </em>control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.</blockquote>
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What it shows here is that he was a better than average pitcher for the last three years until he was sidelined with Tommy John and while I'm not usually in the business of having two rehabbing players in Lackey and Baker in the same rotation but I am expecting a big rebound in Lester and Buchholz, and if<a href="http://vfromthecouch.blogspot.com/2012/10/pitching-trends.html" target="_blank"> my last post</a> comes to fruition and the up-trending Jake Peavy is a part of the rotation than there is some margin for error. It is also very important that both Lackey and Baker had started throwing in 2012 and have been on track to be ready for Spring Training.<br />
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Joe Mauer has a full no trade clause that he could invoke, so this could be all for naught but giving the Twins two top 10 prospects along with Doubront, and 100 million dollars in salary relief could be just enticing enough for them to consider this deal.<br />
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Stay Tuned<br />
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Norton</div>
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Nortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-91719602698175004412012-10-09T08:02:00.003-04:002012-10-09T09:42:13.549-04:00Pitching the TrendsWhile most of you have switched to Neanderthal, I mean, football mode; Ok I'm sort of there too, baseball is always at the forefront of my mind. And I can't sleep most nights thinking about what the Red Sox need to do to make a respectable team for 2013. As far as I can see it's going to start and end with pitching. <br />
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We are not going to look at specific names until the end of the piece so here what we are going to look at:<br />
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Here is a little more background on the respective contract/heath situations of each player:<br />
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<strong><em>Player A</em></strong>: 15.5 million club option which will most likely be declined and bought out (2MM), therefore will only cost money to obtain. Has made 30+ starts per season for last 8 years, no red flags for health<br />
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<strong><em>Player B: </em></strong>22 million club option which will most likely be declined and bought out (4MM), therefore will only cost money to obtain. Has won a Cy Young Award, first time throwing 200 IP since 2007, One major injury to lat in 2010, no issues with arm.<br />
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<strong><em>Player C: 9</em></strong> million club option which will most likely be picked up, therefore will need to trade prospects and established MLB Players. Has made 30+ starts per season for last 6 years, Only player in comparison to throw 200 + innings in past three seasons, no red flags for health<br />
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<strong><em>Player D</em></strong>: 13.75 million guaranteed salary, therefore will need to trade more prospects and established MLB Players due to age. Has made 30+ starts in only three of seven seasons in the MLB. Only eclipsed 200IP once in seven years. Has a history of shoulder inflammation issues.<br />
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Obviously knowing if the respective teams pick up the options weigh heavily upon this, looking at the teams financial situation this is my best educated guess as to what happens with the players, so let's assume that all four scenarios happen. Got it? Good.<br />
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Now let's digest the first set data as it pertains to the Red Sox:<br />
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Players A-C are all roughly the same age and in their prime while Player D is about to enter his prime. Point for Player D.<br />
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Leading the most cumulative stats (yellow) is another point for Player D.<br />
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Both Players A and C get two points for durability/health and both eclipsing the 600 IP mark which is an average of more than 200IP per year.<br />
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The only player to increase IP for the last three years and trend upwards for workload is Player B. Despite having the fewest total innings pitched, he has shown the ability to fully come back from an injury and be the top pitcher in the comparison for 2012. Point for Player B.<br />
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One of the major problems of 2012 for the Red Sox was the inability to get out of jams which is why the LOB% (left on base percentage) is such a crucial stat. Although the aggregate LOB% stat goes to Player D the 2012 LOB% champion is Player B and is once again the only player trending upwards in that category.We'll give both Players B and D points.<br />
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Fly balls in Fenway Park are definitely something that need to be monitored so a HR/FB ration of 5.47 is incredible and a point for Player D. <br />
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For the readers that don't know much about the SABR-side of pitching, FIP and xFIP are defined as this by the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/fip/" target="_blank">wonderful guys at Fangraphs</a>:<br />
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<em>Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)</em> measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher <em>can </em>control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.</blockquote>
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<em>Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP)</em><em> </em>is a regressed version of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/fip/">FIP</a>, developed by Dave Studeman from The Hardball Times. It’s calculated in the same way as FIP, except it replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they <em>should</em> have allowed. This estimate is calculated by taking the league-average home run to fly ball rate (~9-10% depending on the year) and multiplying it by a pitcher’s fly ball rate.</blockquote>
Basically read it the same as you would read an ERA (the lower the better). Players C and D should each get points here.<br />
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Last but not least WAR. Player A has generated one full more win than the nearest competitor which really speaks to how solid/consistent he has been the last three years. Point for A. We will also award a point for the best player in the previous year (2012) since this is a "what have you done for me lately" league, which is Player B.<br />
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Here's the running tally for hose keeping score at home:<br />
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<strong>Player A- 3</strong><br />
<strong>Player B- 3</strong><br />
<strong>Player C- 3</strong><br />
<strong>Player D- 5</strong><br />
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One more set of information we need to seriously check out before the deliberating is the velocity/pitch trends:<br />
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Player D obviously is the hardest thrower here, but he's not getting a point for that because of the down-trending in his FBv (Fastball Velocity) over the past 3 years. This may be due to the shoulder issues that have cropped up over the past couple seasons and is raising a big red flag in my book. This could also be a serious shoulder issue on the horizon this will be a negative on Player D. Player A is also down-trending in velocity probably more so due to his age and natural progression whereas he's never had much of an injury history therefore no negative will be awarded. But players B and C are both trending slightly upwards in Fastball velocity. In fact, both B and C are up almost across the board with all their pitches. We will give Three points for both B and C.<br />
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In looking at GB%, LD%, FB% we'll turn once again to <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/batted-ball/" target="_blank">our friends at Fangraphs:</a><br />
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Line drives are death to pitchers, while ground balls are the best for a pitcher. In numerical terms, line drives produce 1.26 runs/out, fly balls produce 0.13 R/O, and ground balls produce only 0.05 R/O. Ground ball pitchers generally have grounder rates over 50%, while fly ball pitchers have fly ball rates above (or approaching) 40%.</blockquote>
Player C is going to get a point for GB% given his total body of work and clear uptrend. The unfortunate uptrend in LD% for Player A is a negative point while Player C gets points for trending down in line drives and fly balls.<br />
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The <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/hrs/" target="_blank">HR/FB% is another particularly worrisome stat</a> given the short porch in Left and in immediate Right. Player C loses a point for having a poor to awful rating and although Player D has a spectacular rating the upward trend is worrisome so we'll award half a point. Player B has been most consistent and now that he is fully healthy is more in line with previous years. Point for B.<br />
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The SwStr% (Swinging Strike Percentage) speaks volumes towards a pitchers "stuff" and how many pitches thrown are being swung at and missed by the opposition. The down-trending in A and D don't inspire confidence but the up-trending in B and C are both worth a point. It does need to be noted that all four pitchers were above the league average from 2011 for SwStr% which is worth a half point for all.<br />
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The last determining factor is that Players A and B will only cost money, Not money AND compensation. Most likely because of the 2012 season Player A will cost less than Player B therefore Player A will be awarded three points and Player B will be awarded two.<br />
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Here is how the final tally looks:<br />
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<strong>Player A- 5</strong><br />
<strong>Player B- 10.5</strong><br />
<strong>Player C- 7.5</strong><br />
<strong>Player D- 4.5</strong><br />
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Despite all the charts showing Player B to have the "worst" aggregate stats for the combined three years a deeper look into the numbers actually would show that he is the most qualified and best fit for the Red Sox.<br />
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You may be asking yourself, who are these mystery players?<br />
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Player A- Dan Haren<br />
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Player C- James Shields</div>
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Player D- Josh Johnson<br />
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Everything is not necessarily cost-prohibitive but I'll call it cost conscious. The problem with how the Red Sox were doing business is they were just trying to buy the best available instead of finding the best fit for the team. That being said I would attempt to work on a 3-4 year deal worth in the neighborhood of 14 million per season with Player B.<br />
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And the newest starting pitcher for the Boston Red Sox should be, one, Jake Peavy.<br />
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Stay Tuned</div>
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Norton</div>
Nortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-42088261630977709102012-09-02T21:19:00.001-04:002012-09-02T21:19:45.336-04:00The Path to SuccessSeeing as though most of us look at Red Sox games now in sort of a "hey, at least they didn't score four touchdowns" attitude, it seems only appropriate that I finally post about how I would approach this off season with a 5-step-plan. <br />
<br />
*<em>Violently slides GM Hat On*</em><br />
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<ol>
<li><strong>Fire Bobby Valentine on October 4th</strong></li>
</ol>
To say that his inaugural season as Red Sox manager was an unmitigated disaster would be the understatement of the century. I don't like placating to the players any more than I would have to given the way they have conducted themselves for the better part of a year. But he is not part of a long term solution, he is not the motivator/baseball savant that he was hailed to be in today's game of baseball and most importantly he does not have the backing of the GM. Valentine needs to be relieved of his duties the first day of the off season to let potential candidates know that one; they are looking, and two; they have a clear vision of the future and are ready to move forward.<br />
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<strong>2. Be thorough and innovative with the managerial hire</strong><br />
<br />
There is a blueprint for this sort of thing. Look at the Cardinals, White Sox and even the much-maligned Yankees who were ahead of the curve in hiring a manager that isn't far removed from the game. The game has changed since the 80's and 90's when a lot of today's managers got their start. Today it is more about analysis, ego suppressing and speed. It is now a young man's game with old ideals. But with the old ideals there are new concepts that are used to evaluate players are something that should not only be taken into account in the front office but in the dugout. (For anyone that still thinks RBI's and Wins and Losses are valuable statistics, please read the following piece by <a href="http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6756722/derek-jeter-subtleties-greatness" target="_blank">Jonah Keri, a God among baseball writers.</a>)<br />
<br />
It is also imperative that the Red Sox front office try and be innovative with their hire. They don't need a "name" for the sake of hiring a "name". Don't try and appease people with a pedigree if a candidate without one jumps off the page. The other prerequisite that needs to be met with the next manager is a knowledge of pitching or at least the capability of knowing how to work with pitchers. <br />
<br />
So the criteria for the next manager are:<br />
<ul>
<li>Recently removed from the game</li>
<li>Ability to used advanced metrics</li>
<li>Not necessarily a household name</li>
<li>Knowledge of pitching/how to work with pitchers</li>
</ul>
It is with those qualities that I fully endorse Brad Ausmus as the candidate that I want to manage the Red Sox in 2013 and beyond. He had an 18-year Major League career as a catcher in four different organizations namely the Houston Astros. He is from the Northeast (New Haven, Connecticut). He is now the Special Assistant to Baseball Operations for the San Diego Padres. In May of 2012 he was named the manager of Israel's team for the World Baseball Classic. <br />
<br />
Joe Torre once said, "There's no question he can be a manager. He's a smart cookie, everybody knows that, and he has an engaging personality." At the end of that season knowing that Ausmus' career was over Torre actually let Ausmus manage the game.<br />
<br />
<strong> 3. Make an impact trade for controllable pitching</strong><br />
<br />
With the new found wealth of pitching prospects you have the ability to make an impact trade for the starting rotation for next year and beyond. It is with those prospects I would approach Billy Beane about Brett Anderson. Anderson is signed through 2013 with club options for '14 (8 million) and '15 (12 million). His salary for 2013 is not expensive at 5.5 million but for a team with limited funds they have in the past sold high on their pitchers such as Mark Mulder, Dan Haren, and Gio Gonzalez which has bolstered the Oakland farm systems which has been historically rich in pitching.<br />
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Anderson whom just recovered from Tommy John surgery owns a career WHIP of 1.24, BAA of .260 and a SLG against of .375. Another left-handed pitcher in the rotation whom would be under control essentially for the next three years at 25.5 million dollars and has already rehabbed from Tommy John? That's worth giving up the prospects, sign me up.<br />
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One player that doesn't fit the "controllable pitching" scenario, but I would also keep an eye on is Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals have a lot of prospects that are on the cusp of being called up to St. Louis and Wainwright is entering the final year of his contract.<br />
<br />
<strong> 4. Revamp the bullpen</strong><br />
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The Red Sox bullpen has been run into the ground this year by sub-standard starting pitching. Because of the amount of innings they have had to throw the "dog days of August" and now September have tired the 'pen. However, players like Alfredo Aceves (personal conduct has now become detrimental to the team) and Mark Melancon (makes "way back" Wasdin look like Satchel Paige) need to go and fresh arms/personalities need to be brought in. <br />
<br />
Andrew Bailey is the closer. That's the reason you traded for him and he has the stuff, and makeup to have that job for 2013. The only other people that I would write on my depth chart in pen are: Franklin Morales and Andrew Miller. They need to look into power arms for the back-end of the bullpen that throw strikes consistently. Ideally Daniel Bard would fit this bill but his ability to throw strikes is in question not to mention a <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7115&position=P#pfxpitchvelocity" target="_blank">4-mph drop in velocity</a> on his average fastball.<br />
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<strong> 5. Keep the "disciplined" approach</strong><br />
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As much as Joe Mauer on waivers was intriguing, especially given his propensity to play 1B as well as catch, Ben Cherington stuck to his word and passed on a player that this team has coveted for years. Mauer is not a 23 million dollar a year player, however if the Twins ate 50-60 million and made him essentially a 15-16 million dollar per year player he would have to be considered not as a catcher, but as a first baseman and backup catcher.<br />
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The "discipline" that Cherington talks about doesn't necessarily mean not spending money but more about fiscal responsibility. Exploring contract extensions for players like Ellsbury, if it isn't exorbitant, is something that should be explored. If there is no way that you can get him for the price that you think he is worth you need to look into dealing him. <br />
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With regards to negotiations with players like Ortiz playing hardball isn't necessarily the worst thing that you can do. The Red Sox are in the process of rebuilding. There aren't many rebuilding phases that include signing 37-year-old players to multi-year deals at anything more than a team-friendly contract. If he feels that he is worth more than a one year deal at a higher salary (8-10 million) than any other DH in baseball, then let him walk and use the position to rotate players/playing time.<br />
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There aren't any marquee free agents that fit in the Red Sox plan for 2013 so I would not make a "splash" in the free agency market. The trade market wiill most likely be more lively for Boston given the assets they have at their disposal.<br />
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The Red Sox certainly have their work cut out for them but with more financial flexibility, smarter baseball decisions and a more disciplined GM they are better positioned to be competing in the near term than their old business model would have allowed them to be.<br />
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Stay Tuned<br />
<br />
NortonNortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-52922381213345679532012-08-27T20:01:00.000-04:002012-08-27T20:01:29.861-04:00Sox Take Great First Step but Be Careful Not To Fall on Your Face With the Second <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
As my esteemed colleague wrote about and broke down piece by piece earlier today, <a href="http://vfromthecouch.blogspot.com/2012/08/a-franchise-altering-trade.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #eeeeee;">here's VfC's own Ryan Norton's breakdown - read it now</span></a>, the Red Sox and Dodgers pulled off a doozy of a trade at the most unlikely of times. I'm not here to breakdown the deal that sent Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto, and all of their bad contracts (expect you, Punto) to the Dodgers for Chavez Ravine's tenants top 2 pitching prospects, starting 1b, and some mid level prospects. What am I going to write about however is how yes it was a great step forward by the Red Sox after what has been an abysmal calendar year seeing them possess the 3rd WORST record in the AL over that time frame but that the Red Sox need to be careful not to fall flat on their faces this offseason/early next year.<br />
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By finding a taker for Josh Beckett's final 2 years, Carl Crawford's next 5 years, and Adrian Gonzalez's remaining 6 years the Red Sox were able to unload approximately $260 million in contracts. It did leave the team with a hole at first base but the ability to rid themselves of Crawford's albatross was well worth the price of losing Gonzalez and add Beckett's departure to the mix and you've got yourself a damn good deal. As for what's coming the Red Sox way it's incredible to me that there are ZERO BAD CONTRACTS coming back at them after unloading 3 megadeals. The only major league player the Red Sox received was the light hitting James Loney who's contract is up after this year anyway. The 2 pitching prospects the Sox managed to haggle from the Dodgers both have top of the rotation upside with Rubby De La Rosa possessing a top fastball and top of the rotation secondary stuff but a questionable ability to harness all his talent and he did have Tommy John Surgery recently but he looks good so far getting an appearance with the Dodgers in the past week. Allen Webster is also a top tier talent with a hard sinker that's been compared favorably to Derek Lowe's - not a bad thing at all.<br />
<br />
Now that between myself and Ryan we have beaten this deals components to death it's time to look at what's next for the Red Sox moving forward and so far I don't like some of the ideas I'm hearing floated.<br />
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This offseason the Red Sox are going to have a ton of money to play with but by no means do I think that they need to get antsy and repeat history by throwing that money away on players who don't fit the long term plan that GM Ben Cherington has laid out in his mind. With this trade the Red Sox have the ability to look themselves in the mirror and honestly assess the young talent they have in their system currently and determine whether or not they're comfortable where they stand. The number one name I'm hearing Red Sox fans throw around is Josh Hamilton and how they believe the Sox should go after him once he finishes out his current contract with the Texas Rangers.<br />
<br />
Now I agree that Hamilton is an absolute force to be reckoned with but there's a reason that the Rangers are allowing him to play out this year at 31 before deciding whether or not to engage in talks in what will be a contract in the 6 to 8 year range at $20+ million annually. Hamilton is a 31 year old in his 6th major league season and in only 1 of those years has he played more than 133 games (156 in 2008 at 27). His history of drug addiction is also a red flag as he had a relapse last offseason and it's not quite known exactly how much damage he did to his body through his persistent drug abuse early in his career and if I'm the Red Sox I don't think that's a risk I'm willing to take especially after taking a similar risk with Carl Crawford just two years earlier. The Red Sox also have a lot of OF options in their minor league system highlighted by Jackie Bradley, Jr., Bryce Brentz, Ryan Kalish, and Che-Hsuan Lin. I'd prefer to give one of those guys the opportunity to seize a starting OF job at Fenway over locking yourself into 6 years of a player who will deliver serious bang for the buck in the first 2 or 3 years but will inevitably fade in his 35-37 year old seasons.<br />
<br />
The deficiency I believe the Red Sox truly need to address this offseason is their starting pitching and I don't think that this winters number one free agent Zack Greinke is an option. Greinke is a classic small to mid level market pitcher who doesn't appear to have any intention of playing in any of baseball's pressure cookers and doesn't have the makeup to handle it. Greinke is a stud when he's playing in front of small crowds as evidence by his Cy Young Award for Kansas City in 2009 and his success for the Brewers the previous season and a half. Since being dealt to the LA Angels in July of this year however he's struggled mightily going 2-2 with a 5.22 ERA in 6 starts and allowing 43 hits in 39.2 IP.<br />
<br />
Greinke is an exceptional talent but he's not a fit for the Red Sox. He's more of a big fish in a small pond guy and has also been known to be a little quirky and standoffish in the clubhouse, something the Red Sox don't need to deal with now that they've gotten rid of public enemy numero uno in Josh Beckett. Greinke is going to command a deal in the 5 to 6 year range at $20 million a year...a price tag the Red Sox don't need to entertain. If I'm Ben Cherington I'm saying thanks but no thanks I'll spend my cake elsewhere.<br />
<br />
Unlike their OF situation the Red Sox don't have great arms in the high minors that would be ready to step in early next year but what they do have is the arsenal to swing a trade for someone along the lines of King Felix if Seattle ever made him available. If I'm Ben Cherington I'm knocking on Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik's door every morning checking the status of Felix - who if dealt this offseason would still be under contract for 2 more years. Another possibility that I've heard floated out there is the Red Sox making a run after Cliff Lee. Now Lee is a pitcher that if I were Cherington I would in fact be comfortable paying $20 million a year because he's lights out and has proven that he can pitch anytime anywhere and be effective. The Phillies showed that their willing to deal him when they tried to get the Dodgers to take him off their hands just a few weeks ago but the Dodgers balked at picking up the remaining 3 yrs/$75 million on Lee's deal. That deal jumps up to 3 yrs/$87.5 million if the 4th year of the deal at $25 million isn't picked up and a $12.5 million buyout is activated. Now I wouldn't be comfortable paying him roughly $29 million a year for 3 years but if I the Phillies can be talked down to eating $9 million a year at the price of a higher prospect I would in fact by willing to make that deal. That would give the Red Sox a top of the rotation that consisted of Lee, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Felx Doubront. Pitching wins championships and the Red Sox as currently constructed don't have the pitching to make that happen. If either of these or any other big name guy can be had I'd be willing to part with the requesite pieces even if that included Jacoby Ellsbury.<br />
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Speaking of Ellsbury, since 'The Trade' all the chatter has been that the Red Sox can now use that money to lock him up long term. Not so fast Panama Jack. With Scott Boras as his agent the Red Sox would have a hard time engaging Ellsbury in extension talks (see: Fielder, Prince and Milwaukee) any time before his contract is up after next season and if I'm the Red Sox why would I want to extend him when I'm actually not really sure what kind of player he is. Is he the guy who has only played 3 full seasons out of 5 and had never hit more than 9 HR's in a season while being a speed threat or is he the guy who showed flashes of big time power last year and went yard 32 times? If this year's small sample size (50 games) is any indication he appears to sit more in the 10-15 range than the 25-30 range as far as power numbers are concerned. With a speedster like Ellsbury his value jumps from the $10-$15 million/year range to $20+ million/year when his power tool becomes playable. If that power tool he showed in 2011 is a flash in the pan then why commit to it long term when it doesn't actually exist? The Red Sox already signed a light hitting speedy outfielder to a big time long term deal and how'd that work out for them? Let Ellsbury play out the rest of this year see where he falls on the power/average scale (again is he a .321 hitter like last year or the guy who's previous career high was .301?) for the rest of this year and next year. This offseason if the Red Sox can maximize his value and ship him out of town for a big time starting pitcher I'm pressing the YES button. As I stated earlier the Red Sox upper minors are loaded with OF talent.<br />
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Ben Cherington swinging the deal of his life has opened up a lot of doors for the Red Sox moving forward and instilled confidence in Red Sox Nation in their new GM. He has the opportunity to peruse the free agent market without any restrictions and he also has the ability to evaluate his young talent at a time when Red Sox Nation has accepted their team isn't going to make the playoffs and was better off being blown up then left as currently constituted. Go ahead, Ben, the world is your oyster but be careful not to miss the mark and lose all that precious freedom you just earned with one fell swoop.<br />
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Let me know your thoughts and whether or not you agree or think that I'm way off and the Sox should go get Hamilton, Greinke, and whoever else they can land.<br />
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Geoff JablonskiGeoff Jablonskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13077611918060703480noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-65564207515461395812012-08-27T14:23:00.000-04:002012-08-27T14:23:15.426-04:00A Franchise Altering Trade<div style="text-align: center;">
<strong>Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Nick Punto</strong></div>
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<strong>for</strong></div>
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<strong>James Loney, Allan Webster, Ivan Dejesus Jr (PTBNL's Rubby De La Rosa, Jerry Sands)</strong></div>
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<strong>The Dodgers pick up 262.5M in salary</strong></div>
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Drink that in. I'll give you a second to toss away the used Kleenex's because I went through six tubs of Jergens and 18 boxes of Puffs while on <a href="https://twitter.com/CatchNorton13" target="_blank">Twitter </a>Friday night. This is not going to be a short blog post, so buckle up and enjoy the ride.</div>
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First we should look at what the Sox sent packing.</div>
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<strong>Josh Beckett (31.5M left on deal)-</strong> His time was up in Boston and despite the talent that he still possesses, he is no longer what the Red Sox want as a leader for their pitching staff. His WHIP is the highest of his career, and the attitude which used to accompany a winning mentality has turned into surliness and poor performance. It would not surprise me if Josh Beckett pitched well for LA because he will be pitching to weaker lineups, much larger parks especially in the NL West, and I do believe in the 'change of scenery' mantra. </div>
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<strong>Carl Crawford (102.25M left on deal)- </strong>This was the most surprising part of the deal to me. There is no precedent for any team ever trading for a player while he was on an operating table. He will not be ready for Opening Day next year so for them to take that kind of salary on in a player that has under-performed more than any other player in baseball relative to their contract it is a huge risk. His skill-set was too similar to Jacoby Ellsbury's at the time of his signing and the Red Sox already have one of baseball's best 2 hitter. Everything about his skill-set and game was redundant on the Boston Red Sox. I didn't like the signing at the time, I dislike it more now, and I'm not sure if he can handle it in Hollywood either.</div>
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<strong>Adrian Gonzalez (127M left on</strong> <strong>deal)- </strong>He was the reason that the Dodgers took on Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett. He is a Top 10 hitter in baseball over the last 6-7 years and will be a force in the middle of LA's lineup. With LA's new front office about to sign a new TV deal and being the largest Mexican-American demographic in the US, obtaining Adrian Gonzalez was a move that worked for business and for baseball. That being said, his laissez-faire attitude, blaming God for everything good or bad, and inability to really take responsibility for his role in anything regarding the Red Sox was surprising; given the type of player everyone thought he was and who he claims he is. As far as baseball is concerned, he's a stud. He knows the NL West very well and will have no problem living up to the contract which relative to his peers (Pujols, Votto, Texiera) is a relative bargain. However, is Adrian Gonzalez worth 56 million dollars per year which is essentially what it's costing the Dodgers while Crawford, Beckett and Gonzalez are all on the same roster.</div>
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I will not waste time talking about Nick Punto so let's look at what the Red Sox got in return.</div>
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<strong>James Loney-</strong> He's not you're prototypical slugging first baseman and the last few years have been underwhelming after a promising rookie year. He will be on the team for the rest of the season and I wouldn't be surprised if he's non-tendered after the season and the Red Sox opt for more power at a corner position via free agency.</div>
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<strong>Allan Webster-</strong> He's a 6'3'', 185 lbs right hander who going into the year was the Dodgers number 2 prospect and the 95th best prospect in all of baseball. In 27 games at AA this year for the Dodgers he has worked to 6-8, 3.55 ERA and 117 strikeouts in only 121.2 IP. He has a mid 90's fastball and also a curve, slider and changeup. One of my favorite sites, FanGraphs says that "he would slide into the Red Sox top 15 prospects at number 3 behind Matt Barnes and Xander Bogaerts". This is a player that could potentially be seen in Boston in 2013.</div>
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<strong>Ivan Dejesus Jr</strong>- He is easily the worst player among the lot. He was once a promising player but a horrific broken leg moved him from SS to 2B full-time and his defense has suffered because of it. A classic throw in and if he makes it to the Bigs is someone who will be a utility infielder at most. He was out of options so he made sense as a classic throw in for a trade.</div>
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For people that don't know why players are classified as PTBNL or Players to be named Later both Rubby de la Rosa and Jerry Sands are/were on the Dodgers 40-man roster. Because they didn't clear waivers and didn't give the option to all other teams to attempt to claim them they can not be dealt until the end of the season.</div>
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<strong>Rubby De La Rosa</strong>- Rubby de la Rosa is the wild card in this deal. He is coming off Tommy John surgery, but prior to Tommy John surgery he was throwing 100 mph. He appeared in one game for the Dodgers probably to showcase his health and he hit 96 on the gun and will only get stronger. The lack of power arms in the Red Sox system makes him immediately a commodity who's average fastball was 95.2 higher than Justin Verlander's. He has an unpredictable ceiling with the kind of arm he has which could be higher than Webster's, a solid back end of the bullpen reliever or just another arm.</div>
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<strong>Jerry Sands-</strong> Sands is a player that definitely has some power, but his numbers though extremely impressive are misleading. This year he has hit .303 with 24 HRs and 103 RBI in AAA. Looking at those you'd think you just signed a Triple Crown candidate but he plays in a league that is full of small ballparks that have players launching balls out left and right. For those thinking that Fenway park is a hitter's park as well, you're right but on average Fenway Park is a +8 for run differential and the fields that Sands has been frequenting are a +30. That is not to diminish what he has done but the numbers need to be taken into consideration. He could be in the mix for an outfield spot in 2013.</div>
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Now that you've seen what the Red Sox have given up and are getting in return what do I think of this trade?</div>
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This trade does not help them win right now, but it sets them up for the future. This is a franchise altering trade that has, in its wake, given Ben Cherington the keys to the Cadillac.</div>
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The new found financial flexibility has erased the remnants of Theo Epstein's mistakes (aside from Lackey) and has also expunged Larry Lucchino and his over-riding voice on the personnel front. This is Ben Cherington's team, and with this deal, he gets to build it how he wants it. And to be quite clear, he's the only person I trust that's already employed on Yawkey Way, that I would want putting my team together.</div>
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He is a former college baseball player, from a small town in New Hampshire, that despite all the corporate double-speak knows exactly what direction the Red Sox were headed. He is a Red Sox fan at heart. He is living the dream that most baseball loving/playing boys wet dream about when you live in the Northeast. Cherington made it a point to chastise his former boss (Theo) and the current owners when referencing "discipline" and that is exactly what the Red Sox need. He is the man for the job, now let's let the man work. </div>
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There are a few other issues to look at that is part of the fallout of this trade:</div>
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<strong>Bobby Valentine</strong>- Look, I do not think he's had a good season and I didn't think it was a good hire. I've said that time and time again. I also based that opinion on the roster as it was constituted at the time of his hire. With a roster with far less egomaniacs, that is the kind of environment that Bobby V has found his success. I think that this move has unfortunately assured Valentine of at the very least playing out his guaranteed 2-year deal. But at least you are putting Valentine in the best place for him to succeed with a roster full of people that want to prove that they aren't a bunch of for lack of a better word, assholes.</div>
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<strong>David Ortiz</strong>- With all the money that came off the books most people thought, "it's time to give Ortiz the 2-year deal he's been coveting." If Ben Cherington is true at his word (and remember the word is discipline) he will not give Ortiz two years just because the funds are there. The market for DH's is not what it once was and he has made more than double what the next closest full-time DH makes. The Red Sox should offer him one year at 8-10 million dollars. If other team's get into the bidding than you can entertain the thought of a two-year deal. But remember this, Ortiz will be a 38-year-old player that is coming off an Achilles injury that has kept him out for what will amount to be the final two months of the season. They need to start doing business more judiciously and Ortiz is not immune to it.</div>
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<strong>Jacoby Ellsbury- </strong>He is the most difficult case because he has been wildly inconsistent. Ridding themselves of Carl Crawford has opened the door to sign him long term which was effectively shut with him on the roster but you need to tread carefully before signing him. With Jackie Bradley on the cusp of his Major League career, you need to seriously look into dealing him before you sign him long term. If you can package him with other players for a stud starting pitcher you have no choice but to do it. If he is willing to sign a deal like the ones signed by Pedroia, Lester or Buchholz than you explore the extension, but given his agent and Ellsbury potential it is unlikely to see the hometown discount, but not out of the realm of possibility (Think Jered Weaver). If he doesn't, you let him walk and collect the draft picks.</div>
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I'm going to wait to get into more off season talk until the hot stove starts up but the best thing that came from this trade that it feels like Boston has their team back. The in-mates are no longer running the asylum and it feels like quietly John Henry has taken Larry Luchhino out back and beat him with a switch. All the while given Ben Cherington the authority to run the baseball team. The image of Ben Cherington sitting in front of the Red Sox logo, answering questions; giving thoughtful, honest and transparent answers makes me giddy with excitement that someone that knows what they are doing is running the organization. The future is no longer dim for the local nine but buzzing with hope and promise.</div>
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Stay Tuned</div>
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Norton</div>
Nortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-60281081723418202002012-08-23T13:28:00.002-04:002012-08-23T13:28:32.367-04:00The McClure Backlash and Future of Bobby ValentineLet's recap, shall we? On the same day that the Red Sox decided they were shutting down Carl Crawford for the remainder of the season with Tommy John surgery, they fired their pitching coach, Bob McClure. Wait, what? The strange timing of this has me questioning why now, and is there more to this story?<br />
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For starters, I'll say that this was absolutely the right move given the under-performance of just about everyone in the starting rotation. Ben Cherington is right when he says that "it is a performance based job," and if you don't perform you don't keep your job, it's that simple. However, this move should have been done in June, not August. (This is why I don't think this was strictly performance-related, but given the slop that the pitchers have been tossing up to the dish all year, his methods clearly were ineffective and a firing was warranted.)<br />
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It is said that the baseball season can be broken up into 3 parts April and May to evaluate, June and July to add or subtract to the roster, and August and September to see if the moves you've made were good enough to play in October. Throughout the first two months of the season, the Red Sox had the worst starting staff in baseball and clearly whatever McClure was (or wasn't) doing was not conducive to winning or productive pitching. He should have gotten the axe then, which leads me to speculate further about the timing of this firing.<br />
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This is particularly appalling to me only because they have now committed to Assistant Pitching Coach Randy Niemann. (Quick Sidenote: Do you know how many other teams at the beginning of 2012 had an assistant pitching coach? That would be none, but I digress.) Usually committing to someone new after a just firing would not bother me, but the fact that they are promoting Niemann, whom is Bobby Valentine's "right-hand man", is striking me as an evaluation that could lead to letting Bobby Valentine stick around for another year. <br />
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Bobby Valentine was put into a no-win situation when he took this job. He had to take over for the most successful manager in Red Sox history, he wass thrust into a strange dictatorship (Larry Lucchino, emphasis on the dic), and a GM that did not want him to be hired. With that being said he has had too many missteps this year in my eyes to be the manager.<br />
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These missteps include but are not limited to:<br />
<ul>
<li>Not knowing whether opposing starting pitchers are left-right handed</li>
<li>Not being transparent with injuries </li>
<li>Calling out players before having enough time to cognitively evaluate (Think Kevin Youkilis)</li>
<li>Blatantly lying when asked about the Middlebrooks "Nice Inning, Will" situation. (He told a story about himself making three errors in one inning on a seat cushion giveaway night at Dodger Stadium and tried to relate to his player. It turns out that he never made 3 errors in one game in his Major League career, nor did the Dodgers have a "seat cushion giveaway" night during his tenure in LA.)</li>
<li>Letting Mark Melancon pitch in any game with a lead is almost a fire-able offense as said lead undoubtedly turns into a deficit.</li>
<li>The kowtowing to players such as Josh Beckett after being critical (and rightly so) while being an analyst on ESPN in reference to the rate of play that he pitches at.</li>
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Let's be clear, he has done some positive while he's been here despite his divisive personality. By driving a wedge in his relationship with Youkilis ultimately leading to his departure, we have seen the rise of Will Middlebrooks as a legitimate Major League 3rd baseman and cornerstone of the franchise. His keen sense of evaluating talent did put Franklin Morales in the rotation where he has been electric at times and has excelled when most of the starting staff has floundered. Pedro Ciriaco may have also been given the chance he needed in order to be a starting SS for a big league club whom Valentine liked from the beginning of Spring Training.<br />
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I sincerely hope that the Niemann promotion is not a signal that they are committing to Bobby for 2013 and beyond, because I think that would be another mistake to throw on top of the roster full of underperforming players and anarchy in the front office.<br />
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Stay Tuned<br />
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NortonNortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-13801338403738571762012-08-20T13:23:00.000-04:002012-08-20T13:23:26.495-04:00Pre-Emptive Pussification of AmericaThere are two schools of thought that have to be taken into account when assessing the Carl Crawford and Stephen Strasburg preemptive measures to capitalize on the value(s) of the certain players.<br />
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<strong>The forward thinking aspect</strong>:<br />
Mike Rizzo (Nationals) and Ben Cherington (Red Sox) have the (un)fortunate job of trying to prognosticate for a baseball team. Not only do they have to try and forecast how good a player will be over the duration of a contract they have to try and maximize the values of the exorbitant contracts that are already in place.<br />
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With this predicament the Nationals have chosen to shut down Stephen Strasburg at 160 innings (albeit to preserve his long-term health/value to the franchise) despite leading the NL East and are destined for a playoff appearance, their first since becoming the Nationals re-branded the Expos franchise. In a slice from the same bread, the Red Sox have decided to shut down Carl Crawford so as to get ready for the beginning to 2013 because clearly 2012 is over for the Boys from Beantown.<br />
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If I'm the GM of these teams, this only seems to be the correct decision in one of these cases. You are taking player safety/health into account first and foremost and probably bolstering the long-term health of your club into consideration, which is admirable. However, given the circumstances I'm not positive how you can sell the Strasburg decision as a baseball mind to the rest of the team not to mention a fan base. This decision should have been based on overall health of the player involved and the standings at the time of the eclipsing of the innings limit. <br />
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With regards to Crawford, from a GM standpoint, it's the correct way to go. The Red Sox are facing an uphill battle that they will not win, and will not see October baseball this year. Therefore the correct decision is to have Crawford get the surgery. The one misstep is that they knew about this elbow issue as far back as April and tried to rehab him until now. Now there is a chance that he isn't ready for Opening Day 2013 where this is a 6-9 month recovery process for position players. Why was this not taken care of when it first came out instead of having the cat & mouse media game between Crawford, Valentine and Cherington?<br />
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<strong>The Ballplayer aspect</strong>:<br />
If I'm a player on the Nationals I'm going absolutely bat-shit insane if they shut down Strasburg for the year at 160 innings. Most of the players on that team have never experienced the playoffs, and given the parity of the Major Leagues you never know if they will have that chance again. The Nationals have very capable number two and three starters in Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman but Strasburg is the epitome of what wins in the post season, Power Pitching.<br />
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If Stephen Strasburg is indeed fully healthy he would gain more respect in my book if he went to ownership/Rizzo and said, "Do not limit my innings, I'm healthy, I want to win a World Series."<br />
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I wonder how Scott Boras feels about this. On the one hand, he is the second most electric pitcher in baseball, and you should want to limit him one year out of surgery. But in the heat of a pennant race is where you can make buco bucks as far as cementing a legacy. And if what Rizzo says is true he won't be tested on the biggest of stages, at least not this year. My guess would be that Boras could care less about overall record rather than individual performance because he doesn't get more money when his players make the postseason.<br />
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In the case of Carl Crawford I think that this is the biggest example of the Pussification of America. As a player, your job is to play, unless you physically can not. This has had little or limited impact on his hitting ability so yes his arm will hurt after every game but he needs to keep his bat, legs and ass in the lineup. I am under no circumstances saying that his elbow does not hurt, I am however saying that if you are able to play, you play. If it means that instead of constantly overthrowing the SS you hit your cut-off man for the first time in 2 seasons than so be it.<br />
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I understand that his elbow has discomfort, but the whole notion of preemptive surgery is the biggest crock of garbage I've ever seen. That is like saying that you rolled your ankle once and now you need to put a brand new ankle there just because it hurts from time to time. If this were twitter I would say "#pussbag".<br />
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I understand that baseball is a business, but let's be honest here. He has a guaranteed 142 million dollar contract, does there really need to be that much more negotiating throughout his career? He has his money already bankrolled right in front of him, and if I were in the same situation I'd owe it to my teammates first and my fans second to go out there until I physically can not. Call me a hardass if you want, but one of the reasons that people enjoy all-time players like Dustin Pedroia and Derek Jeter is because they play through it. It's mind over matter and the numbers don't mean a thing. And when the numbers don't matter, at the end of the day, that's usually when there tends to be consistency in your stats at the end of your year/career.<br />
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Stay Tuned<br />
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NortonNortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-61136537528871442852012-08-14T12:17:00.000-04:002012-08-14T13:29:24.878-04:00Throw in the Towel and the Answer to Boston's StrugglesIt's alright, I deserve it. There is no discernible reason for my sabbatical from Views from the Couch so if you need to give me whiplash from a verbal assault, kick me in the shin or anything in between I'm clearly fair game. I may have been on hiatus from the blog, but I was repping the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.388773321357.170397.516576357&type=3#!/photo.php?fbid=10151055888626358&set=a.388773321357.170397.516576357&type=3&theater" target="_blank">VFC on NESN</a>, and having <a href="https://twitter.com/JennyDellNESN/status/230097584193159168" target="_blank">Jenny Dell blow up my spot on Twitter.</a><br />
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There is good reason however for my re-entrance into the big leagues of blogging. When Will Middlebrooks had his wrist broken that was the metaphorical straw that broke the camel's back. The Red Sox are done. It's time to focus on 2013. That means there needs to be some changes on the team and questions that need to be answered:<br />
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Kelly Shoppach needs to be moved so that Lavarnway can have a spot on the team when if/when Ortiz comes back. (Quick Aside: When Ortiz got injured the first thing that came out of the Red Sox medical staff was 'maybe a week' we're now approaching two months. Couple that with the handling of Jacoby Ellsbury, Andrew Bailey's ridiculous rehab time and the conundrum of Carl Crawford, what kind of inept medical staff is in Boston?)<br />
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Why is Mike Aviles still on this team? The Red Sox are going no where fast and someone like the San Francisco Giants could use Aviles for their playoff push. Also, by either making Ciriaco your starting SS or calling up Iglesias for the rest of the season you give the fans a reason to come watch. (Another Aside: I realize that Ciriaco has been very solid but I would implore all of you to take him with a grain of salt. there's a reason that he's 26 and played for three organizations in the MLB. He's still a flash in the pan but I'd rather have him or Iglesias starting and deal Aviles).<br />
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Josh Beckett has to go. <a href="http://vfromthecouch.blogspot.com/2011/10/gm-for-day.html" target="_blank">I've been pining for him to be traded</a> since the end of last season and they dropped the ball. I can't remember the last time a player got booed off the mound in back to back starts at Fenway. Beckett right now is a shell of himself. At the beginning of last season he went on record saying, "Baseball isn't as important to me as it once was." I understand that priorities change when you become a parent, but that doesn't mean that I want that kind of player anchoring my pitching staff. It doesn't matter how much money you eat get this slug off the team.<br />
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While many things have contributed to the fall from grace of the Boston Red Sox I'd like to bring attention one thing. The atrocious display of defensive in-ability of Jarrod Saltalamacchia. He is one of the main reasons that this staff is not as good as it could/should be. I'm not trying to make excuses for the likes of Josh Beckett because his lack of physical preparation and dearth of perception in the Boston market is his own doing. But let's look at how "Salty" stacks up against his competition in the AL:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFQKzP45dx4sQE5QO3kMxEpW5-aHZP7OxPQlGFI3lLO0QJbjoitk62vFz2CyPsEXK2_O1rkvnyBiSIzSI7luC8rQz5sy5yuxuipmuR_cKUmvTPM4Ekhs61WwT1n0OFfWYQxgcEJQp8pug/s1600/Catcher+Comparison.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="152" mda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFQKzP45dx4sQE5QO3kMxEpW5-aHZP7OxPQlGFI3lLO0QJbjoitk62vFz2CyPsEXK2_O1rkvnyBiSIzSI7luC8rQz5sy5yuxuipmuR_cKUmvTPM4Ekhs61WwT1n0OFfWYQxgcEJQp8pug/s400/Catcher+Comparison.png" width="400" /></a></div>
The first column is on average, over 135 games (the average number of games catchers play per year) how many runs he saves while he's on the field. He statistically gives up 8 runs over the course of a season, the worst in all of baseball. The next closest is Carlos Santana whom is coming back from a leg injury last season and is probably going to be a full-time first baseman soon. A player like Derek Norris is saving the upstart A's 12 runs per year with his play. While it may be too much to ask for an Elite catcher, would it be too much to one that at least doesn't give up any runs over the course of a season?<br />
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The second column is pretty self-explanatory but I'd like it to be known that the 18% of runners thrown out is the <em>worst</em> in the American League. Not only is it the <em>worst </em>in the American League it is also the <em>worst</em> in baseball among starting catchers. Furthermore, he is ranked <em>66 out of 80</em> with most of the rest of the 14 behind him being back up catchers or guys that split time.<br />
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Catcher ERA is a relatively new stat that combines all the pitchers they work with and gives them an ERA as well. His was the third highest, and is behind a 2nd year catcher (Perez) and Ryan Doumit whom has one of the worst staffs in baseball. This stat obviously is a little bloated because of the tremendously down years of Beckett and Lester however the Red Sox bullpen has by and large exceeded expectations. The inflated ERA would lead me to believe that pitch selection/"game-calling" is not one of his strengths. And before you say it, Yes, it's ultimately up to the pitcher but if the hurler has no confidence in the backstop it's not going to work.<br />
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Much like the Catcher ERA stat he has also given up the 3rd most runs while on the field. Once again this is aided by the horrific seasons by Beckett, Lester and Bard, but still giving up 5 runs a game when you're on the field is not a good recipe for success at the big league level.<br />
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Offensively the career high in home runs are great but the strike outs will also be a career high and if you look at his "<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=saltaja01&year=&t=b#clutc" target="_blank">clutch</a>" stats they are pretty abysmal.<br />
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By all accounts he's a good teammate and solid person, but the Red Sox not only need a revamp in the rotation but they need to hand the reigns over to Lavarnway, because Saltalamacchia is not cutting the mustard.<br />
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Stay Tuned<br />
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NortonNortonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04636747913326661032noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3236380839871805633.post-39226922325202963292012-08-10T13:38:00.001-04:002012-08-12T12:54:43.299-04:00The 'Dwightmare' Fallout<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;">Hello all! I've missed you dearly. It took the conclusion of 'The Dwightmare' to bring me out of my blogging coma, and I solemnly swear to you that I am back and fully rejuvenated. Oh and yes, you read that correctly it is ALL OVER (pending league approval). This may come as a shot below the belt to most of Celtics Nation, but Dwight Howard is headed to Hollywood. Four teams, the Los Angeles Lakers, Orlando Magic, Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers have agreed in principle to a trade that will look as follows:</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', sans-serif;"><i>Lakers receive: Dwight Howard, Chris Duhon and Earl Clark</i></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><i>76ers receive: C Andrew Bynum, Jason Richardson</i></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><i>Nuggets receive: G/F Andre Iguodala</i></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><i>Magic receive: PF Al Harrington, SG Aaron Afflalo, SG Mo Harkless, PF/C Nikola Vucevic and three protected first round draft picks</i></span></span><br />
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<b style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;"><u>Winners: Lakers, Nuggets and Sixers</u></span></b></span><br />
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</span><a href="http://ru-crazy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/lakers-600x600.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://ru-crazy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/lakers-600x600.jpg" width="320" /></span></a><span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Lakers - The Lakers get the NBA's best center in Dwight Howard who hasn't even entered the prime of his career yet to add another link to the chain of franchise changing big men the organization has garnered over the years. Starting in the early years with George Mikan, moving on to Wilt Chamberlain, then Kareem Abdul Jabbar followed later by Shaquille O'Neal and now Mr. Howard. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black; color: white;">Dwight will bring his expert defensive prowess </span><span style="background-color: black; color: white;">(three time defensive player of the year),</span><span style="background-color: black; color: white;"> along with a bevy of jaw dropping dunks and still improving post moves to the Lakers front court. He'll be paired with finesse </span><span style="background-color: black; color: white;">Spaniard and fellow seven footer Pau Gasol down low which will form one of the best big man duos in the league for years to come. </span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white;">Not to mention that two-time MVP and multiple time all-star point guard Steve Nash has been added to this team as well. The Lakers have put together one of the most impressive off seasons in recent memory and granted he re-signs with them after this season, will surely be one of the top three teams in the NBA for the next few years. They also still have that Kobe Bryant guy.</span></span><br />
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<i style="background-color: black; color: white; text-align: center;"><b>Lakers Projected Starting Lineup:</b></i></span><br />
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<span style="color: white;"><i style="background-color: black;">PG: Steve Nash</i></span></span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><i style="background-color: black;">SG: Kobe Bryant</i></span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><i style="background-color: black;">SF: Metta World Peace</i></span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><i style="background-color: black;">PF: Pau Gasol</i></span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><i style="background-color: black;">C: Dwight Howard</i></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white;">Nuggets - The Nuggets acquire well rounded all-star swingman Andre Iguodala in the deal. He replaces Aaron Afflalo and will bring elite defensive and athletic ability, unique slashing and scoring and unselfish leadership that the youthful but promising Nuggets need. Adding Iggy will give them a very well balanced and extremely athletic team that can score and defend anywhere on the floor. It's a tough crowd out west but this trade improves them greatly and in my opinion makes them one of the top five teams in the Western Conference.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: white;"><i style="background-color: black;"><b>Nuggets Projected Starting Lineup:</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: white;"><i style="background-color: black;">PG: Ty Lawson</i></span></span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><i style="background-color: black;">SG: Andre Iguodala</i></span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><i style="background-color: black;">SF: Wilson Chandler</i></span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><i style="background-color: black;">PF: Kenneth Faried</i></span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><i style="background-color: black;">C: JaVale McGee</i></span><br />
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<span style="color: white;"><span style="background-color: black;">Sixers - They add talented center Andrew Bynum to their front court who is a huge replacement over Spencer Hawes at the position. They also receive veteran sharp shooter Jason Richardson in the deal who will provide veteran leadership and scoring depth at the guard position. Bynum is regarded by most as the second best center in the NBA, so this is no small acquisition for the franchise, as he will be something they can build around for years to come. He'll provide a desperately needed scoring threat in the post, along with superb defense and rebounding. The Sixers already were one of the best up and coming young teams in the league and this trade further cements that fact.</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: white;"><span style="background-color: black;"><i><b>Sixers Projected Starting Lineup:</b></i></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: white;"><span style="background-color: black;"><i>PG: Jrue Holiday</i></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"><i>SG: Evan Turner/Nick Young/Jason Richardson</i></span></span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"><i>SF: Thaddeus Young</i></span></span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"><i>PF: Elton Brand</i></span></span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black;"><i>C: Andrew Bynum</i></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: white;"><span style="background-color: black;"><b><u>Losers: Orlando Magic</u></b></span></span></span><br />
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</span><a href="http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile-ak-ash2/592104_74947776908_1401069399_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" src="http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile-ak-ash2/592104_74947776908_1401069399_n.jpg" /></span></a><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">In July, the Orlando Magic rejected the Brooklyn Nets more than generous offer of top five center Brook Lopez, power forward and reality television maven Kris Humphries (who has an attractive expiring $9.6 mil contract), second year scoring threat Marshon Brooks and four unprotected first round picks for Dwight Howard, Jason Richardson, Chris Duhon and Earl Clark. More than enough compensation to build a solid future around, no? This would have given the Magic a very promising foundation to build upon for the next five-ten years. Needless to say, they rejected the offer.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">Fast forward to last night, in which the hapless Magic agreed, for reasons unknown (maybe they hate their franchise and fans), to a deal that nets them aging and declining, shoot-first, undersized veteran power forward Al Harrington, sixth man Aaron Afflalo, rookie Mo Harkless, second year big man Nikola Vucevic and THREE PROTECTED first round picks. </span></span><span style="background-color: black; color: white;">For those of you who don't know much about the NBA, the first package offered by the Nets was </span><b style="background-color: black; color: white;">244x better</b><span style="background-color: black; color: white;"> than the package they agreed to last night. The agreed upon deal leaves Orlando with a mash-up of cast off players, a couple young players with potential and three first rounders that have security clauses attached to them.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><i><b>Magic Projected Starting Lineup:</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><i>PG: Jameer Nelson</i></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><i><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">SG: JJ Redick</span></i></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><i><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">SF: Hedo Turkoglu</span></i></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><i><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">PF: Andrew Nicholson</span></i></span><br />
<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><i><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">C: Glen Davis</span></i></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white;">The professional basketball future in Disney World looks grim. If I'm a Magic fan I would be looking to take my allegiance elsewhere because they are just a horribly run franchise. The Dwight Howard situation has been one of the most poorly handled disputes in NBA history by both parties involved and I for one, and I think I speak for many when I say this, am genuinely glad its over.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white;">I'm back in the saddle again folks.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: black; color: white;">Stay classy.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white;">-ZHawk</span></span>Zak "ZHawk" Hawkinshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02110030743708412575noreply@blogger.com0