NL Push to the Playoffs Underway

After Cliff Lee shocked seamheads in Arlington and the Bronx and decided on a second tour of duty in Philadelphia, baseball pundits penciled the Fightin’ Phils in to running away with the NL East, and making their third World Series trip in four years. Add in the blockbuster deal for Hunter Pence made just before the deadline, and the rich seemed to be getting richer. Before anointing the Phillies kings of the NL, one need only look back to this time last year when the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants were in second place behind the San Diego Fathers, with the Colorado Rockies making their patented second half charge. In other words: not so fast baseball fans.

Until recently when the Phillies started to pull away from the offensively challenged Braves in the East, all three NL division races had been hotly contested, with the West in a deadlock and the Central a three horse race. For one of the second place finishers, the Wild Card consolation prize will be awarded, but that tends to mean a slightly harder path to the ultimate goal then finishing on top of your division. In the end, each team wants to be crowned division champ. So without further adieu, here’s your handicap on the contenders in each of the three division races in the old circuit.

NL East

Current standings: Phillies (78-41) Braves (70-51) 9 GB

The Phillies own baseball’s best record and the largest division lead in all of the majors. A three game losing streak (including 2 straight losses to the NL East cellar dwelling Nationals) last week hurt the Braves who had been hanging tough within striking distance thanks in no small part to their strong pitching staff. Derek Lowe bounced back from a miserable 3 straight outings (0-3, 14 IP, 14 ER) with a strong outing (6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER) but Jair Jurrjens has seen his league leading 1.85 ERA before the All Star break rise to 2.63 post break. If Jurrjens and Lowe can pick up the pace set by Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson the Braves might give the Phillies a run for their money. Don’t count on it though with Roy Oswalt coming back to the Phillies rotation to team up with Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hamels. Prediction: The Phillies continue to stretch out that lead and run away with the division. Phils are 9-1 in their last 10 with no signs of slowing down. Expect to see the Braves sneak into the playoffs as the NL Wild Card winners.

NL Central

Current standings: Brewers (70-51) Cardinals (64-56) 5.5 GB Pirates (56-63) 13 GB 

Instead of beefing up their lackluster starting rotation in free agency the Brewers surveyed the trading landscape and landed RHP SP’s Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. Greinke came with more hype but so far this year Marcum was an All Star with a 10-3 record, 3.58 ERA, and 116 K’s in 135.2 IP. Greinke has struggled with the long ball this year but the 2009 AL Cy Young winner has the potential to carry the beer makers to the playoffs. With their offense led by All Stars Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and Rickie Weeks the Brewers are poised to continue their solid play of late (11-1 last 12) and at home all year (41-15 at Miller Park). The Cardinals though aren’t going to go down quietly with an offense led by current NL home run leader Lance Berkman, Albert Pujols, and Matt Holiday. With the additions of SS Rafael Furcal (.976 fielding %) and RHP Edwin Jackson (3.78 ERA in 128 IP) at the deadline the Cards have also shored up their defense and starting rotation. The Brewers took 2 out of 3 from the Cards in Milwaukee last week but now it’s the Cards turn to try and hop up into first with the Brewers visiting for 3 this week. The Pirates are MLB’s feel good story for the year but after running the gauntlet through St. Louis, Atlanta, and Philadelphia they have slipped back to earth and now sit below .500 after a 10 game losing streak. A winning season would be a great accomplishment for this young team in a city starved for anything positive from their Buckos. After 18 straight years of losing you’d settle for an 82-80 record too. Prediction: The Brewers and Cardinals will be locked in a dogfight right down to the wire but in the end I think the Brewers solid defense and offensive firepower will carry them to the division title. Bernie the Beermaker running around the concourse of Miller Park and sliding down that every kids dream slide will be a welcome playoff sight.

NL West

Current standings: DBacks (67-53) Giants (66-55) 1 .5 GB

After defeating the Giants’ 2-time Cy Young Award winner, ace, and proven stopper Tim Lincecum on Tuesday night the Diamondbacks tied the Giants for first place in the Wild West.  The Giants made headlines at the deadline by picking up coveted RF Carlos Beltran from the Mets for prized pitching prospect Zack Wheeler but the Diamondbacks quietly strengthened their pitching staff by adding veterans SP Jason Marquis (tho the Giants lit him up in his 1^st start) and RP Brad Ziegler. Holding a 4 game lead and adding a primetime bat like Beltran it appeared the Giants were going to run away with the division but their offense hasn’t ignited the way many expected it would. The Giants lost 2 out of 3 to the DBacks, 3 out of 4 to the Phillies and helped the Pirates stop their 10 game losing streak. The DBacks haven’t been able to take advantage though and are still in a virtual tie for first instead of on top. Budding ace Daniel Hudson (11-8, 3.83 ERA, 1.26 WHIP in 157.1 IP) has carried Arizona’s staff this year (he was part of the Edwin Jackson deal with the White Sox) but the back end of their bullpen is a crapshoot (I’ll take black beard’s delight Brian Wilson over the human DL that is J.J. Putz). The Giants might not be able to score more than 3 runs a game but with their pitching staff led by Lincecum, Matt Cain, and revelation Ryan Vogelsong they don’t have to on most nights. Prediction: Arizona has done a great job charging up the standing and won’t go away without a fight but I’ll take the Giants experience and pitching to win out and grab the NL West crown. Watch out for the 2^nd place finisher to make a run at the Wild Card.

Until we cross paths again,

Geoff Jablonski