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Monday, May 7, 2012

These Sox Can't Get Started



Two teams, 17 innings, Baltimore 9 Boston 6 with the pitchers of record being two position players. Chris Davis of the Orioles threw 2 shutout innings to grab the first win for an AL position player since 1968. For the Red Sox Darnell McDonald got hung with the loss and saw his ERA balloon to 27.00 after giving up a 3 run homer to Adam 'not PAC-man' Jones. After wading thru 17 innings to polish off a 1-5 homestand against perpetual AL doormats Oakland and Baltimore the Red Sox Achilles heel has openly shown itself. That weak link in the chain is Red Sox starting staff. They ultimately will be the ones who determine the fate of John Henry's latest Beantown Bunch.

This isn't news to most Red Sox fans seeing that before the season most of the teams question marks were located in the team's bullpen and starting staff. I thought that Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Clay Buchholz would provide stability at the top with Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront providing great potential in the 4 and 5 slots. The bullpen was in semi disarray at the start of the year after Andrew Bailey's injury and Alfredo Aceves shaky introduction into the closers role but in the past few weeks the back end of the pen has really solidified itself. The starting rotation on the other hand, which I thought would be a strength based on Beckett and Buchholz having strong bounce seasons has actually been God awful.

The Red Sox stand at 11-16 in the basement of the AL East. Their defense hasn't been the problem (outside of a few miscues by saltalamacchia) their offense hasn't been the problem (Ortiz has made up for Youkilis sucking and A Gonz power outage) but rather it's been the teams starting 5. It's gotten to the point where when I watch a game I'm shocked to see one of the Sox starters even start the 7th inning. I'm openly jealous of almost every other teams starting rotations being able to work deep into games effectively instead of doing it Clay Buchholz style where you pitch 7 innings and give up 7 runs.

Speaking of Clay Buchholz, the Red Sox #3 starter who is currently sporting an ERA north of 9.00, I think I've found the perfect solution for him. Instead of letting him try to work out his command issues in the big leagues and taxing the bullpen in the process I say utilize the fact that he still has options left and let him take the Cliff Lee route of ironing out his problems in AAA before coming back to the show. Cliff Lee spent the beginning of the 2007 season ironing out his issues only to find himself as one of baseballs best a year later. It can work. Give Buchholz a chance to find himself in a pressure free environment get him righted and back to where he was before he broke his back. Then he can truly be the Red Sox #3 starter and help lead them to the playoffs, hopefully.

Their team ERA currently is better than only the Minnesota 'we suck some awful' Twins coming in at a calm cool 5.36. They have 1 complete game and 1 shoutout to go with a 1.47 WHIP and .272 BAA. Most of these numbers are being inflated by the poor starting pitching the team is receiving. We've already been over the terrible awful that has been Clay Buchholz but he's been joined in misery by supposed ace Jon Lester who's 1-2 with a 4.62 ERA. Those numbers are pretty damn far off where I thought he would be checking in on May 7th just check my fantasy draft where I made him the ace of my staff. Lester's problems though seem to be quite fixable. The biggest problem he's been running into is falling back into his old habit of letting walks came back to bite him in the ass in the form of a long drawn out inning that jacks up his pitch count. His last two starts however after getting absolutely shellacked by the Rangers have been right on track, 7 IP 0 R 1 BB 7 SO against the White Sox and 6 IP 3 R 3 BB 2 SO against the Orioles. I like his odds of getting back into All Star shape.

My main issue with Josh Beckett is that he isn't the gamer everyone thought he was after the 2007 regular season and postseason. In that year Beckett single handedly made sure that the Red Sox were going to win the 2007 World Series but other than 2009 he's been altogether a disappointment. Beckett made 30 starts last year but as everyone knows quite well he wasn't around in late August and September while the team was collapsing he was too busy getting hammed on brewskis in the clubhouse. This year, outside of that gross first start in Detroit, Beckett had actually been the Red Sox best starter logging 4 straight quality starts but then, shocker, injury struck again in the form of a 122 pitch outing against the Chicago White Sox. After the start Beckett said he needed to be skipped next turn due to general soreness. That start that he needed to take off was made by Aaron Cook who got lit for 7 runs in just over 2 innings a game that the Red Sox lost to the Orioles. Beckett is talented there's no doubting that but when his team needs him the most he has a tendency to get injured or fade into the background. As of today he has been cleared to start Thursday against the Cleveland Indians and hopefully he's able to provide a quality start and get the team a much needed W.

Rookie LHP Felix Doubront is just that, a rookie. He throws too many pitches and gets himself into far too many jams but all in all he's been about as good as you can hope for at the back end of a rotation. He gives you 5 to 6 innings and tends to give up 3 or less runs. He hasn't been spectacular mostly thanks to high pitch counts and long innings that force him out of the game before he truly should be getting the hook but with time he'll learn to be more efficient. Right now the Red Sox need longer outings out of him but I don't know if this is the right place to be looking. Like I said just a sentence ago  he's far too inefficient right now to consistently work deep into ballgames and give the bullpen a day of rest.

That brings us to the Sox #5 starter and probably the one with the highest ceiling, Daniel Bard. Bard, much like Doubront, has given the Sox exactly what they must have expected he was moved from back end of the bullpen to the starting rotation. He has been keeping the ball in the ballpark, surrendering only 1 home run so far, and other than a start against Tampa when he walked 7 guys he's been keeping the free passes to a minimum. The biggest problem for him has been that he isn't stretched out enough yet to go more than 7 innings at the maximum. He's only worked 7 innings once and hasn't gotten out of the 6th on two other occasions out of 4 starts. His stuff has been top notch but, and the Sox can't pretend to be shocked by this, he hasn't been dominant in the starting rotation like he was at the back end of the bullpen. I get why they moved him to the starting rotation it makes sense to have your best pitchers pitch more innings but that comes with growing pains and at a time when the Red Sox starting rotation is in shambles they need someone to carry the load for a start or two and throw a complete game or two Roy Halladay style.

The best solution for the Red Sox is for these 5 guys to get themselves straightened out and that's up to Bob McClure to find the proper solutions. There are no outside solutions that I would endorse for the Red Sox considering the dearth of talent at the top of the farm system as is. As far as Buchholz is concerned I've stated that I think the best solution is some time to right himself away from the bright lights but as far as the others are concerned they'll have to work their problems out up in the Big Leagues. Red Sox Nation needs the Sox starters to go deeper into games and provide the team with innings it desperately needs. Like it or not Red Sox fans this season might not go as originally planned and you can blame the Sox starting 5 for that but unless the 5 individuals mentioned above can correct themselves. There is a legitimate chance we're looking at a year of misery in the Fens. As a fan I can't go through another year where the Red Sox finish dead last in quality starts even behind the terrible starting rotations thrown out there by the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros of the world. It's time for the Sox starting rotation to step up and shit or get off the pot.

Geoff Jablonski

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