The Path to Success

Seeing as though most of us look at Red Sox games now in sort of a "hey, at least they didn't score four touchdowns" attitude, it seems only appropriate that I finally post about how I would approach this off season with a 5-step-plan.

*Violently slides GM Hat On*

1. Fire Bobby Valentine on October 4th

To say that his inaugural season as Red Sox manager was an unmitigated disaster would be the understatement of the century. I don't like placating to the players any more than I would have to given the way they have conducted themselves for the better part of a year. But he is not part of a long term solution, he is not the motivator/baseball savant that he was hailed to be in today's game of baseball and most importantly he does not have the backing of the GM. Valentine needs to be relieved of his duties the first day of the off season to let potential candidates know that one; they are looking, and two; they have a clear vision of the future and are ready to move forward.

     2. Be thorough and innovative with the managerial hire

There is a blueprint for this sort of thing. Look at the Cardinals, White Sox and even the much-maligned Yankees who were ahead of the curve in hiring a manager that isn't far removed from the game. The game has changed since the 80's and 90's when a lot of today's managers got their start. Today it is more about analysis, ego suppressing and speed. It is now a young man's game with old ideals. But with the old ideals there are new concepts that are used to evaluate players are something that should not only be taken into account in the front office but in the dugout. (For anyone that still thinks RBI's and Wins and Losses are valuable statistics, please read the following piece by Jonah Keri, a God among baseball writers.)

It is also imperative that the Red Sox front office try and be innovative with their hire. They don't need a "name" for the sake of hiring a "name". Don't try and appease people with a pedigree if a candidate without one jumps off the page. The other prerequisite that needs to be met with the next manager is a knowledge of pitching or at least the capability of knowing how to work with pitchers.

So the criteria for the next manager are:

• Recently removed from the game
• Ability to used advanced metrics
• Not necessarily a household name
• Knowledge of pitching/how to work with pitchers

It is with those qualities that I fully endorse Brad Ausmus as the candidate that I want to manage the Red Sox in 2013 and beyond. He had an 18-year Major League career as a catcher in four different organizations namely the Houston Astros. He is from the Northeast (New Haven, Connecticut). He is now the Special Assistant to Baseball Operations for the San Diego Padres. In May of 2012 he was named the manager of Israel's team for the World Baseball Classic.

Joe Torre once said, "There's no question he can be a manager. He's a smart cookie, everybody knows that, and he has an engaging personality." At the end of that season knowing that Ausmus' career was over Torre actually let Ausmus manage the game.

     3. Make an impact trade for controllable pitching

With the new found wealth of pitching prospects you have the ability to make an impact trade for the starting rotation for next year and beyond. It is with those prospects I would approach Billy Beane about Brett Anderson. Anderson is signed through 2013 with club options for '14 (8 million) and '15 (12 million). His salary for 2013 is not expensive at 5.5 million but for a team with limited funds they have in the past sold high on their pitchers such as Mark Mulder, Dan Haren, and Gio Gonzalez which has bolstered the Oakland farm systems which has been historically rich in pitching.

Anderson whom just recovered from Tommy John surgery owns a career WHIP of 1.24, BAA of .260 and a SLG against of .375. Another left-handed pitcher in the rotation whom would be under control essentially for the next three years at 25.5 million dollars and has already rehabbed from Tommy John? That's worth giving up the prospects, sign me up.

One player that doesn't fit the "controllable pitching" scenario, but I would also keep an eye on is Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals have a lot of prospects that are on the cusp of being called up to St. Louis and Wainwright is entering the final year of his contract.

      4. Revamp the bullpen

The Red Sox bullpen has been run into the ground this year by sub-standard starting pitching. Because of the amount of innings they have had to throw the "dog days of August" and now September have tired the 'pen. However, players like Alfredo Aceves (personal conduct has now become detrimental to the team) and Mark Melancon (makes "way back" Wasdin look like Satchel Paige) need to go and fresh arms/personalities need to be brought in.

Andrew Bailey is the closer. That's the reason you traded for him and he has the stuff, and makeup to have that job for 2013. The only other people that I would write on my depth chart in pen are: Franklin Morales and Andrew Miller. They need to look into power arms for the back-end of the bullpen that throw strikes consistently. Ideally Daniel Bard would fit this bill but his ability to throw strikes is in question not to mention a 4-mph drop in velocity on his average fastball.

      5. Keep the "disciplined" approach

As much as Joe Mauer on waivers was intriguing, especially given his propensity to play 1B as well as catch, Ben Cherington stuck to his word and passed on a player that this team has coveted for years. Mauer is not a 23 million dollar a year player, however if the Twins ate 50-60 million and made him essentially a 15-16 million dollar per year player he would have to be considered not as a catcher, but as a first baseman and backup catcher.

The "discipline" that Cherington talks about doesn't necessarily mean not spending money but more about fiscal responsibility. Exploring contract extensions for players like Ellsbury, if it isn't exorbitant, is something that should be explored. If there is no way that you can get him for the price that you think he is worth you need to look into dealing him.

With regards to negotiations with players like Ortiz playing hardball isn't necessarily the worst thing that you can do. The Red Sox are in the process of rebuilding. There aren't many rebuilding phases that include signing 37-year-old players to multi-year deals at anything more than a team-friendly contract. If he feels that he is worth more than a one year deal at a higher salary (8-10 million) than any other DH in baseball, then let him walk and use the position to rotate players/playing time.

There aren't any marquee free agents that fit in the Red Sox plan for 2013 so I would not make a "splash" in the free agency market. The trade market wiill most likely be more lively for Boston given the assets they have at their disposal.

The Red Sox certainly have their work cut out for them but with more financial flexibility, smarter baseball decisions and a more disciplined GM they are better positioned to be competing in the near term than their old business model would have allowed them to be.

Stay Tuned

Norton