We are not going to look at specific names until the end of the piece so here what we are going to look at:
Player A: 15.5 million club option which will most likely be declined and bought out (2MM), therefore will only cost money to obtain. Has made 30+ starts per season for last 8 years, no red flags for health
Player B: 22 million club option which will most likely be declined and bought out (4MM), therefore will only cost money to obtain. Has won a Cy Young Award, first time throwing 200 IP since 2007, One major injury to lat in 2010, no issues with arm.
Player C: 9 million club option which will most likely be picked up, therefore will need to trade prospects and established MLB Players. Has made 30+ starts per season for last 6 years, Only player in comparison to throw 200 + innings in past three seasons, no red flags for health
Player D: 13.75 million guaranteed salary, therefore will need to trade more prospects and established MLB Players due to age. Has made 30+ starts in only three of seven seasons in the MLB. Only eclipsed 200IP once in seven years. Has a history of shoulder inflammation issues.
Obviously knowing if the respective teams pick up the options weigh heavily upon this, looking at the teams financial situation this is my best educated guess as to what happens with the players, so let's assume that all four scenarios happen. Got it? Good.
Now let's digest the first set data as it pertains to the Red Sox:
Players A-C are all roughly the same age and in their prime while Player D is about to enter his prime. Point for Player D.
Leading the most cumulative stats (yellow) is another point for Player D.
Both Players A and C get two points for durability/health and both eclipsing the 600 IP mark which is an average of more than 200IP per year.
The only player to increase IP for the last three years and trend upwards for workload is Player B. Despite having the fewest total innings pitched, he has shown the ability to fully come back from an injury and be the top pitcher in the comparison for 2012. Point for Player B.
One of the major problems of 2012 for the Red Sox was the inability to get out of jams which is why the LOB% (left on base percentage) is such a crucial stat. Although the aggregate LOB% stat goes to Player D the 2012 LOB% champion is Player B and is once again the only player trending upwards in that category.We'll give both Players B and D points.
Fly balls in Fenway Park are definitely something that need to be monitored so a HR/FB ration of 5.47 is incredible and a point for Player D.
For the readers that don't know much about the SABR-side of pitching, FIP and xFIP are defined as this by the wonderful guys at Fangraphs:
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.
Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is a regressed version of FIP, developed by Dave Studeman from The Hardball Times. It’s calculated in the same way as FIP, except it replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed. This estimate is calculated by taking the league-average home run to fly ball rate (~9-10% depending on the year) and multiplying it by a pitcher’s fly ball rate.Basically read it the same as you would read an ERA (the lower the better). Players C and D should each get points here.
Last but not least WAR. Player A has generated one full more win than the nearest competitor which really speaks to how solid/consistent he has been the last three years. Point for A. We will also award a point for the best player in the previous year (2012) since this is a "what have you done for me lately" league, which is Player B.
Here's the running tally for hose keeping score at home:
Player A- 3
Player B- 3
Player C- 3
Player D- 5
One more set of information we need to seriously check out before the deliberating is the velocity/pitch trends:
Player D obviously is the hardest thrower here, but he's not getting a point for that because of the down-trending in his FBv (Fastball Velocity) over the past 3 years. This may be due to the shoulder issues that have cropped up over the past couple seasons and is raising a big red flag in my book. This could also be a serious shoulder issue on the horizon this will be a negative on Player D. Player A is also down-trending in velocity probably more so due to his age and natural progression whereas he's never had much of an injury history therefore no negative will be awarded. But players B and C are both trending slightly upwards in Fastball velocity. In fact, both B and C are up almost across the board with all their pitches. We will give Three points for both B and C.
In looking at GB%, LD%, FB% we'll turn once again to our friends at Fangraphs:
Line drives are death to pitchers, while ground balls are the best for a pitcher. In numerical terms, line drives produce 1.26 runs/out, fly balls produce 0.13 R/O, and ground balls produce only 0.05 R/O. Ground ball pitchers generally have grounder rates over 50%, while fly ball pitchers have fly ball rates above (or approaching) 40%.Player C is going to get a point for GB% given his total body of work and clear uptrend. The unfortunate uptrend in LD% for Player A is a negative point while Player C gets points for trending down in line drives and fly balls.
The HR/FB% is another particularly worrisome stat given the short porch in Left and in immediate Right. Player C loses a point for having a poor to awful rating and although Player D has a spectacular rating the upward trend is worrisome so we'll award half a point. Player B has been most consistent and now that he is fully healthy is more in line with previous years. Point for B.
The SwStr% (Swinging Strike Percentage) speaks volumes towards a pitchers "stuff" and how many pitches thrown are being swung at and missed by the opposition. The down-trending in A and D don't inspire confidence but the up-trending in B and C are both worth a point. It does need to be noted that all four pitchers were above the league average from 2011 for SwStr% which is worth a half point for all.
The last determining factor is that Players A and B will only cost money, Not money AND compensation. Most likely because of the 2012 season Player A will cost less than Player B therefore Player A will be awarded three points and Player B will be awarded two.
Here is how the final tally looks:
Player A- 5
Player B- 10.5
Player C- 7.5
Player D- 4.5
Despite all the charts showing Player B to have the "worst" aggregate stats for the combined three years a deeper look into the numbers actually would show that he is the most qualified and best fit for the Red Sox.
You may be asking yourself, who are these mystery players?
Player A- Dan Haren
Player C- James Shields
Player D- Josh Johnson
Everything is not necessarily cost-prohibitive but I'll call it cost conscious. The problem with how the Red Sox were doing business is they were just trying to buy the best available instead of finding the best fit for the team. That being said I would attempt to work on a 3-4 year deal worth in the neighborhood of 14 million per season with Player B.
And the newest starting pitcher for the Boston Red Sox should be, one, Jake Peavy.
Stay Tuned
Norton
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