The Direction is Promising

In the last two weeks the direction of the Red Sox has taken a drastic U-Turn from an abyss and towards a relative level of respectability among the Boston landscape. We've got a few topics to cover so we might as well get started.

David Ortiz is re-signed a 2 year 26 million dollar deal (incentives can boost up to 30 mil.) 

From a business standpoint Ortiz bent the Red Sox over a barrel and really laid the wood to 'em. Before you cut my nuts off for blaspheming think about this. When Ortiz was 35 they picked up his 12.5 million dollar option and didn't give him a multi year deal. When Ortiz was 36 he accepted their arbitration offer of 14.58 million and didn't give him a multi year deal. Now when he's 37, and coming off an injury that cut his season in half you give him a two year deal? Where's the logic? Answer: Pink hat's need to be appeased, but at least this was a baseball move which is more than they can say for the Carl Crawford signing.

There is also the question of motivation. Ortiz has been pissed off and motivated to produce for the last couple years. Now, what happens in 2013 where he doesn't have to hit to get a contract for the next year? The last time he had the security of a contract he had the mighty struggles that almost got him cut from the team.

While I much rather would have held Ortiz to a one year pact they could have spent the money worse. At thirteen mil a year his base pay is actually less than what the qualifying offer was (13.3 million) and will most likely have gone up next year. Therefore by signing this deal he has forfeited at least $600,000 in what would be part of a guaranteed salary. If you subtract that from the potential money he could reach with incentives ($4 million) people are quibbling over 3.4 million dollars. With a guaranteed team salary in the 40 million range and what will be closer to 70 after all arbitration's and raises take into effect, they have around 90 million dollars that they could spend for this year (if they find it judicious to spend), and I honestly have no problem with giving Ortiz an extra 1.7 million dollars per year for the next two years if he meets the incentives.

The lack of a contract for Cody Ross

I for one am for this move because everyone is overrating him just because he is a great teammate and "dirt dog". Unfortunately he is not as indispensable as all the pink hats are making him out to be. Let's look at the following chart of available OFs:

What the Red Sox are in need of are on-base machines to "keep the line moving" as they say. Something they also need to limit is the amount of strikeouts, the amount of strikeouts they had with RISP last year was something out of a Bad News Bears movie.

Players A, B and D each led four of the categories while Player C led three. Players E and F led one and none respectively.

Player A was clearly the most superior player as he generated more Wins Above Replacement at 5.3 and was a spectacular fielder. His BABIP would indicate that he'll probably regress a little next year but he should definitely remain in consideration

Player B was probably the best all-around offensive player in this group but a suspension for PED's cut his season short. He needs to remain in play to be signed by the Red Sox because of the massive cut he will have to take in pay as a free agent.

Player C ranked last the most in four categories, however he also played the most games and had more opportunities to fail (or succeed). This player is more dynamic and is a switch-hitter which is something the Red Sox could desperately use. This was statistically one of Player C's more sub par years but his durability alone must keep him in the race, for now.

Player D clearly has the most power as three of the four categories he leads are power related but doesn't bring much else to the table as he had the least amount of hits, not one stolen base and was statistically the worst fielder, therefore he's out.

Player E had a solid all-around peripheral year (.325 avg, FLD 2.3) while playing many positions but he doesn't walk enough and was basically a part-time/match up player. I would not sign him to be a starting OF. If he was a fourth OF and backup IF he makes perfect sense, but for a starter, nope.

Player F led the group in strikeouts and generated the least WAR. He didn't do anything spectacularly but for the most part didn't do anything overly bad outside of striking out far too much, but the Red Sox need players that are more than just another player.

Just based on the numbers Players A, B and C should be the choice for the OF that the Red Sox need.
Players A, B and C should not receive more than 2-3 year deals and some may receive one-year pacts.

For me, I'd like to see what player B looks like a year removed from a positive PED test before I offer him a contract unless players A and C are off the map, and we are looking for a bargain outfielder.

Players A and C would equally have my interest piqued on two year deals. Neither of these players are Cody Ross. In fact, Cody Ross didn't even make the second cut.

Mike Reinhold out as head physical therapist

This is actually a positive development. Not because someone lost their job because that's never a positive development, but because they are finally addressing that there is something amiss in the Boston infirmary.

Reinhold was notoriously a "Theo guy" and butted heads with Valentine (who didn't?). But a manager trumps a head physical therapist and Reinhold needed to find a way to work with a new regime and he didn't do it, bottom line. The communication was not good between the medical and coaching staff and I am not blaming all that on Bobby V. The handling of certain medical treatments in the last half decade has been suspect to say the least and it was definitely time to fully cleanse the situation.

It would not surprise me if Reinhold ends up in Chicago with Theo in some similar role but for now the Red Sox definitely made the correct choice, which is not something that has been said often enough lately.

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Overall the general direction of the Red Sox is trending upwards and I wish I knew if it was because Larry Lucchino is less involved or Ben Cherrington was given more of a voice.

Stay Tuned

Norton