Sox Sign a First Baseman

Mike Napoli signs with the Red Sox for 3 years, 39 million (13 million per year)

First things first, the Sox are to be commended for being patient with the Mike Napoli signing and sticking to a three year deal instead of going for the fourth year, regardless of the higher AAV (average annual value). Given the current market of players, and the Red Sox financial situation this is the best thing for them to do, over pay for the players they want but do it on their terms with regard to length.

The Red Sox are actually doing intelligent business right now. They are building ridiculous depth given the rash of injuries that have happened the last three years. Not only that they are molding their lineup to fit their ballpark like the Yankees do, what the Red Sox have been lacking the last few years is power from the right side of the box. With a healthy Wil Middlebrooks, Napoli and Johnny Gomes (on a part-time basis) they finally have the thunder they need from that side of the plate.

I don't dislike the Napoli signing, but I think that some of the expectations need to be tempered. Much like with players such as Julio Lugo and Carl Crawford they killed the Red Sox before the became part of the team. Napoli won't be facing the Red Sox lackluster pitching of 2012 this year and will not have a .400 average at Fenway Park.

To me, this move also has a ripple effect, and I think it spells the end of Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Thank God). The Red Sox will not keep four catchers (David Ross, Ryan Lavarnway, Mike Napoli and Saltalamacchia) on the roster. Lavarnway has options left but he really doesn't have anything left to prove in AAA and is cheaper than Saltalamacchia (fiscal responsibility, remember?), Ross was signed to a 2-year deal and Napoli is too similar to Saltalamacchia to have in the same lineup.

Not only were their peripherals nearly identical in HR, R, RBI and WAR, but they are both minus defenders to boot, Napoli moreso than Saltalmacchia at catcher. Napoli however, walks a lot more than Saltalamacchia along with being able to play first base makes him more valuable because of his ability to get on base more and play another position. 2012 was a down year for Napoli in a lot of categories and I actually believe he will have a slightly better year average-wise (probably closer to .250) which will in turn bump up the OBP over .350.

As previously stated the Red Sox are conducting smarter business in structuring their team to fit the ballpark, however they are taking a calculated risk in 2012. The Red Sox have sacrificed defense at 1B and LF in Napoli and Gomes respectively, which is a gamble, but thinking along those lines it would make sense that they sign a plus defender to be in right field, and given the way the market is shaping up, I expect the Red Sox to sign Shane Victorino whom plays a Gold Glove quality right field. Let's look at the three players defensively:

Above is the total number of innings they've played at those positions during their Major League careers and easily what can be deduced is that Gomes is a butcher. But they are hoping that the HR production/Fenway wall will negate how porous he is defensively. Napoli is a slightly below average fielder at first base which means that Middlebrooks is really going to have to work on his throws across the diamond because Gonzalez isn't there to bail him out anymore, but he shouldn't cost many runs over the course of the year. Knowing that Fenway's right field is one of the most difficult in all of baseball to play, they almost have no choice but to go get a defensive stud and Victorino certainly fits that bill, add in the fact that he's a switch hitter with speed, he fits anywhere in the lineup.

Things are finally shaping up in Beantown and the Red Sox are making sound fiscal business decisions. There may be light at the end of this tunnel, and it may not be that long before they find it.

Stay Tuned

Norton