2013-2014 Pats Positional Primer: Part 1

How's that for alliteration?

Football season is upon us ladies and gentlemen! The Patriots played their final preseason game tonight and will trim the last fat off of a roster that, in some ways, is much improved over last season. They lost some key players and have made some nice additions to their team that will, in the long term, reap great benefits. Let's take a look at the offensive side of the ball as there were some extremely interesting and controversial signings there.

The average Pats fan will hem and haw, repeatedly about the loss of Wes Welker and how it was a terrible move for the franchise. "Why the hell did they let Welkah, go? I swayah that Belichick is frickin' retahded sometimes." I assure you that's not the case. If Welker's replacement, Danny Amendola, can stay healthy, he will be better than Wes in a lot of ways. He's 27 years old which is 5 years younger than the former slot receiver. He's not listed as being taller than Welker but when you see him on the field, he definitely looks substantially larger in stature than the diminutive #83. He's faster. You can see that he hits his top end speed much quicker than Welker ever did coming out of cuts. He's more elusive than Welker. Hell, as it stands right now he even has better hands than the former Pats receiver as Welker had the sixth most dropped passes in the NFL last season with 9. It's silly to think that Brady and Amendola will have the amazing rapport that Welker and Brady shared right out of the gate but, over time, that may be exactly what they share. It remains to be seen whether or not Danny can stay healthy for an entire NFL season though. Amendola carries the stigma of being a injury prone player but I tend to think that's a little exaggerated considering the freakishness of his injury last season. Danny was forced to have season ending clavicle surgery last season after breaking it in a game and having the clavicle pop inward instead of outward which caused it to come within millimeters of puncturing his trachea and aorta. The jury is still out as we move into the final week of the preseason but if all things go as we hope they will, Amendola will be a huge contributor right out of the gate as the Patriots number 1 receiving target.

You may have heard, and if you haven't then I may ask if you've been living under a rock all summer, that the Patriots signed quarterback Tim Tebow this off season. So many people make a huge deal over this signing because of who he is and the media circus that he brings to the team. In reality, he's nothing more than a third string quarterback who will never see any time on the field this season. No, they aren't going to create a separate playbook to incorporate him into the offense. For all you people that think they are going to draw up trick plays for him and he's going to see some time on the field. That's just not going to happen. The Pats aren't going to waste valuable practice time, and take time away from Brady's preparation, so they can work this guy into the offense. At MOST, he'll help the team in practice prepare for scrambling quarterbacks when they have one coming up on the schedule. He'll sit on the bench, probably pray a couple times a game and get way more camera time than he deserves. I'm not by any means a Tebow apologist as I think that there are probably 20 or more free agent quarterbacks that could come in right now and be a more productive backup than him. Who knows, this may be one of those pride moves for Belichick where he wants to prove he can make something of a man that nobody else could. I just don't think it's worth crucifying (see what I did there?) Belichick over. If I've learned anything over the years, it's that I trust the man in charge. (Note that as I write this, there is a very good chance that Tebow could be cut before the season begins next Sunday)

As we're coming out of preseason I've been thinking about who the key contributors at every position will be and what the depth charts will look like heading in to the season. Offensively this is how I see things shaking out.

Quarterback: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallet, Tim Tebow
Tom Brady is Tom Brady. The guy is coming off of one of his best seasons he's ever had throwing for 4,827 yards, 34 touchdowns and a sterling 8 interceptions. The guy is like a fine wine. He get's better with age. This season will certainly have a learning curve in the early stages with all the new faces Tom will be throwing to but once they get some games under their belt, expect much of the same from Brady and the Pats. If we've learned anything from him in the past, Tom Brady makes it work regardless of who he is throwing the ball to and in most cases, he makes the players he's throwing to look like All-Pros. This is a make or break season for Ryan Mallet. He's not going to get many glimpses of game action unless, God forbid, Brady goes down for some reason, so it'll be hard to evaluate exactly how the 3rd year backup has progressed. He has been mentioned by many media outlets as a guy that could be traded for by a team that needs a starting quarterback and I'm not exactly sure he proved he can come in a be that guy for a team.
Brady projected stat line: 4,650 yds, 38 TDs, 10 INT
Mallet projected stat line: Let's hope he doesn't have one

Offensive line: LT Nate Solder, LG Logan Mankins, C Ryan Wendell, RG Dan Connolly, RT Sebastian Vollmer
Not much has changed here. Third year man Nate Solder is protecting Brady's blindside for a second straight season. You didn't hear a whole lot about him last year and I guess that's a good thing considering it means he wasn't doing anything wrong. He was sound and athletic on the edge, and much improved from his rookie season. He'll look to build on that this year. Mankins is the quintessential guard. An absolute mauler who loves nothing more than smashing the face of the defender in front of him. He's the unquestioned leader of this line and provides excellent pass and run support. An important cog in this offensive line is Vollmer. When he's healthy, he's one of the best right tackles in the NFL, but he seems to be one of those guys who always contracts a nagging injury that keeps him out way longer than you think it should. If this line can stay healthy, it will continue the trend of being one of the top 5 offensive lines in the NFL.

Running backs: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, LeGarrette Blount, Leon Washington, Brandon Bolden
Ridley is entering his third NFL season and his second as the feature back of this offense. He broke out last season amassing 1,263 rushing yards, 18 total touchdowns and a 4.4 yards per carry average. He's not overly flashy but he proved last year he's someone whom you can give the ball to consistently between the tackles on first and second down and will take care of the football. Shane Vereen is one of my key players to watch this year. Danny Woodhead was shown the door in free agency as he bolted to the Chargers and Vereen will fill his spot as the third down, pass catching back seamlessly. Vereen has the skillset to be a weapon out of the backfield and make you forget Danny Woodhead was even a human. Vereen has exceptional hands and top end speed making him a huge asset in the passing game and a player that Brady will look to often. Blount adds an interesting wrinkle into the Pats running game as he's something they haven't really had in the past few seasons; a real power back. Blount is a monster of a running back and hardly ever gets taken down by the first tackler. He'll be used in short yardage and goal line situations and should be a very useful runner out of the backfield. Washington has the reputation as one of the best kick returners in the NFL and that's mostly where you'll see him used, but don't be surprised if you also see him catching some passes out of the backfield and spelling Shane Vereen.
Ridley projected stat line: 1,215 yds, 10 rushing TDs, 3 receiving TDs 4.6 yards per carry.
Vereen projected stat line: 425 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, 410 receiving yards, 4 receiving TDs
Blount projected stat line: 360 yds, 6 TDs

Wide receivers: Danny Amendola, Kenbrell Thompkins, Julian Edelman, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Matthew Slater
Danny Amendola is going to be the key guy here. As I stated above he is going to be Welker's replacement and even more because I've heard that he'll be lining up a lot outside of the numbers as well as inside, which brings more versatility to his role. He's sure handed and from all accounts a fast learner so I expect him to have a huge season as the Patriots go-to wideout. Rookie Kenbrell Thompkins is a fantastic story. Kenbrell is a former juvenile delinquent and drug dealer who decided to clean his act up, go to the University of Cincinatti and take this football thing seriously. Signed as an undrafted rookie, the six foot receiver has burst on to the scene impressing the coaching staff and hurdling over several other rookies who looked to be ahead of him going into training camp. He's quickly earned the trust of Tom Brady and has had some great games and flashes in the preaseason which lead me to believe he'll be the wide receiver lining up on the outside opposite Danny Amendola. Julian Edelman will see a huge amount of time in the slot and be the shifty, run after the catch receiver we've seen him be in the past. Injury is something Edelman has to avoid this year as Brady will be depending on him more heavily now, than in years past. Aaron Dobson, the Patriots second round draft pick is a 6'3, 210 lb specimen at the wide receiver spot. He has freakish hands and leaping ability that will undoubtedly make for some highlight reel catches this year, much like this one from his senior year at Marshall: "The Catch". He could very well finish this season as the second or third best wide receiver on the team. Josh Boyce is a strong, compact rookie wideout from TCU who can come in and do some special things in this offense. He provides the team something they have lacked in recent years, a guy with 4.30 speed that can get down the field. I expect him to be utilized on a lot of deep routes, and screen passes as he can be dangerous after the catch in the open field.
Amendola projected stat line: 89 rec, 1,100 yds, 6 TDs
Kenbrell Thompkins: 56 rec, 840 yds, 5 TD
Julian Edelman: 50 rec, 660 yds, 3 TD
Aaron Dobson: 40 rec, 520 yds, 4 TD
Josh Boyce: 35 rec, 410 yds, 3 TD

Tight Ends: Rob Gronkowski, Jake Ballard, Zach Sudfeld
The legend of Gronk continues on to another season. Unfortunately this season it begins with Gronk sidelined as he recovers from a broken wrist and offseason back surgery. When he returns, you should expect him to quickly take back his role as the best tight end in all of football. Maybe not right away, but the man is a freak of nature and I wouldn't put anything past him. To start the season, you'll see a lot of Jake Ballard and Zach Sudfeld. Ballard was an up and coming TE for the Giants before tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl against the Patriots which put an abrupt halt to his development. He has good hands an athleticism for a guy that stands at 6'7 and is also proficient in the blocking game. Sudfeld is a very interesting prospect. From what I've seen so far he has a lot of the unteachable tools that Gronk has on the field. He's extremely athletic and adjusts very well in the air to make difficult catches look easy. Also, much like Gronk, he is very strong in the blocking game and will be a huge contributor in that area of the game as that's one of the best ways to get on Belichick's good side.
Gronkowski projected stat line: 50 rec, 700 yds, 5 TD
Ballard projected stat line: 30 rec, 290 yds, 2 TD
Zach Sudfeld: 30 rec, 350 yds, 3 TD

If all goes according to plan, and it rarely does, that's how I see it playing out. Obviously injuries, cuts, and whatnot will follow this final preseason game but I think this offense, while slightly young and inexperienced, has the potential to do some special things. It may take them a couple weeks to get into the full swing of things, but I would expect them to be the same high octane offense they usually are and put up 30+ points a game. They could possibly be a little more run oriented than we've seen in the past as they have a pretty special stable of running backs, but overall this offense will be a force to be reckoned with.

Keep your eyes peeled for my next piece where I take a look at the defensive side of the ball and what you should expect from your beloved Patriots in that area.

Be well.

-ZHawk

Winning Isn't Everything...Or is it?

There is a philosophical debate among the "Old School" and "New School" baseball lifers that comes to a head again with this year's AL Cy Young race. The "wins" crowd versus the advanced SABR crowd.

The three candidates are: Yu Darvish, Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer.

Some newer statistics that have really piqued my interest are the LOB-Wins, BIP-Wins, FDP-Wins and RA9-WAR. The Crawfish Boxes, the SBNation site for the Houston Astros, does a great job explaining LOB, BIP and FDP in depth. But for expediency purposes here is the Reader's Digest version:

The new stat "BIP-Wins" quantifies the difference between FIP and RA which is due to the impact of BABIP. Conventional SABRmetrics attributes excessive or very low BABIP mostly to luck. However, the quality of the defense behind the pitcher also affects the BABIP level.

The new stat "LOB-Wins" quantifies the difference between FIP and RA which is due to the stranding of base runners. In effect, LOB-Wins is a clutch-like measure, in that the new stat reflects the timing of run prevention actions (whether hits, Ks, BBs, pick offs, etc.). 

FDP is the combination of both of these stats to give you a Fielder Dependent Pitching number of wins a pitcher is worth given all the things that a pitcher can control. so the formula to calculate FDP would like like:                                                   FDP= BIP-Wins + LOB-Wins

Just looking at the raw numbers and the leaders in each of the categories the tally would go as follows:

Hernandez-8
Darvish-6
Scherzer-6

*Note: I am giving the RS/9 (Run Support/9 innings) edge to the lowest run support recipient*

Max Scherzer has a sparkling 19-1 record and receives almost 7.5 runs per game of run support from his juggernaut of an offense. 17 starts (out of his total 26) have resulted in him giving up two runs or less, not earned runs, runs. I find that looking at the amount of runs (not earned runs) can show you how the game was controlled by the pitcher. (A pitcher can give up 8 runs and only 1 earned, and although the defense was terrible he didn't keep them in the game) The LOB-Wins category certainly hurts Scherzer because on average when men are reaching base compared to the two others they are scoring far more often despite being only .10 away from Hernandez in ERA.

Scherzer has an absurdly low .247 BABIP. I say absurd because his career BABIP is .304, which means that, despite pitching very well this year he is the recipient of a lot of good fortune for all the balls in play that he has relinquished. It would also seem to be very lucky because Detroit has one of the poorer defenses in the league.

Statistically Scherzer has the worst SIERA of the three (Still excellent, by the way) but the worst of the three. SIERA is defined as such by Fangraphs:

SIERA adds in complexity in an attempt to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. SIERA doesn’t ignore balls in play, but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. This is the strength of SIERA; while it is only slightly more predictive than xFIP, SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.

Felix Hernandez has a 12-7 record and receives 4.73 runs per game of run support from his paltry offense. He has 19 starts (out of 27 thus far) that he has given up 2 runs or less. Hernandez is walking fewer guys, and allowing fewer home runs than the other two per nine innings. Hernandez also has thrown more innings and barring injury will finish the year with more than the other two.

He has the best GB% of the group, which probably works to his detriment because he plays for the worst defensive team in the league by almost every advanced metric. But every other time a batter gets to the plate they are hitting the ball on the ground and thus making less solid contact allowing for fewer balls to leave the yard. Hernandez is on one of the worst teams in baseball yet pitching better than Scherzer or Darvish in more comparable categories.

Hernandez SIERA predicts that his ERA would be a little bit higher than his tally for the year but is still good enough for second on this list behind Darvish and in front of Scherzer.

Yu Darvish has a 12-5 record and receives a middling 5.25 runs per game of support from his offense. 11 (out of his 25 starts) he has given up 2 runs or fewer. Darvish has been a strikeout machine with 10 of his 25 starts recording double digit strikeouts including five starts of at least 14.

It is expected that Darvish would be giving up more home runs (and he has) given that he plays in a far more hitter-friendly park than the other two pitchers. He also has a moderately high BB/9 at 3.11 and a full 1.0 BB more than the next player on the list.

Darvish SIERA was actually a tick lower than his actual ERA but generally in line which means his stats are essentially as "non-fluky" as they come and he has pitched to his Skill-Independent level.

Ultimately, this should come down to which pitcher has pitched the best for their team. Darvish has been striking people out at a crazy reliever-like rate but ultimately he finishes third on my list in the Cy Young voting.

Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer are essentially equal in WAR meaning that they are both worth about the same amount of wins to their club as one another. Scherzer has been very lucky with regards how low his BABIP is considering his team's poor defense and Hernandez has essentially matched or bested him in just about every statistical category while playing on a worse defensive team while pitching more in line to his career norms in terms of BABIP.

The fact that Scherzer has 19 wins and only 1 loss is remarkable, but far more indicative of the fact that his team scores more than 7 runs per game during his starts and is arguably the class of the American League. Being that Hernandez is close to or better in terms of production in more categories than Scherzer you'd have to think he'd fare just as well with that kind of offense supporting him.

If I had a vote for AL Cy Young it goes to King Felix, by a nose, but Felix nonetheless.

Stay Tuned,

Norton

Catching Up

A recent Twitter discussion (aka someone that has no idea what they are talking about) has prompted me to resume my post here as the unadulterated catching (and let's be frank, baseball) guru at VFC.

I love me some Posey, really I do, but that is an irresponsible and almost criminal statement by one of my followers. One that requires my re-entry into the blogosphere, so for your reading pleasure, away we go!

First things first, as far as catchers go it's Yadier Molina and then everyone else but my list is as follows:

1. Yadier Molina

1A. Buster Posey

2. Matt Wieters

Catching is a defense-first position. Therefore when talking about the top catcher, defense is where you start, and ultimately where you end. The following table are defensive stats compiled from the beginning of 2012 forward.

For the non-SABR-savvy here are the definitions according to FanGraphs for the table at left:

rSB: Calculated by The Fielding Bible, Stolen Base Runs Saved measures how many “runs” a catcher contributes to their team by throwing out runners and preventing runners from attempting steals in the first place.

RPP and rSB are both centered at zero meaning that anything above zero is above average. Anything below zero is below average. (Note +5 is considered Excellent for those two stats). In terms of throwing out runners (rSB) Molina has contributed 9 runs which comes in a tick above Wieters and a full +10 runs better than Posey.

 RPP: First calculated by Bojan Koprivica, Passed Pitch Runs (RPP) calculates the number of runs above / below average a catcher is at blocking pitches. 

Calculated Passed Pitches (CPP). This is another statistic derived from Bojan’s research, and it measures how many passed balls a catcher should have allowed based on his pitches seen.

Given that I used the stat for projected pass balls, I also included actual pass balls (PB) showing that each player is spectacular at blocking balls. Generally, in terms of RPP (blocking pitches), it will show that they are all close but Yadier Molina, yet again, comes in ahead of both players by .6 runs; in a two year sample size, saving 6.6 runs just by blocking pitches, let that sink in.

DRS: Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is a defensive statistic calculated by The Fielding Bible, an organization run by John Dewan, that rates individual players as above or below average on defense. Much like UZR, players as measured in “runs” above or below average.

For a more complete definition of DRS, FanGraphs is a Godsend.

rGFP: A Good Fielding Play is recorded when a fielder does something to prevent an advancement or record an out that we wouldn't typically expect from a fielder at the position. It is a play that is made when, had the play not been made, no one would have faulted the fielder for not making it. There are currently 27 different types of Good Fielding Plays. rGFP is calculated in terms of runs.

In the last 2 years, Yadier Molina has contributed +24 runs behind the plate (+15 is considered Gold Glove Caliber) while Posey has saved just two runs and Wieters has been a negative player in terms of DRS during the same time frame. If this isn't enough to appreciate the landslide in which Molina is ahead of these two defensively he has added 4 runs worth of "Good Fielding Plays" in the two years while the others are negative run players in this category.

FSR: The Fan Scouting Report is a yearly project conducted by Tom Tango that rates players on their defensive ability based on fan observations and voting. Fans are asked to rate players on a 0-100 scale (with 100 being the best and 0 being the worst) in a number of different categories: Instinct, Speed, Hands, Arm Strength and Accuracy, First Step, etc. 

Fan Scouting isn't an exact science but with enough people's input you can usually gain a consensus as to how good each player is at the aforementioned tools. The metrics are the same as the Defensive Runs Saved (centered around zero, positive is above average, negative is below average). Molina has taken this category as well.

The fact that Buster Posey plays occasional games at first base is also a detriment to his attempt at the apex of catching. A far less physically demanding position and is basically a break on the legs for the day while Molina is THE catcher for the Cardinals and similarly for Wieters and the Orioles. Defensively it's not really close, It's Molina. But we shall look at the offensive side because there is always two sides to every argument.

Buster Posey was the rightful winner of the 2012 NL MVP award, he was the best all-around player in the National League last year, helped lead his team to the playoffs (voting takes place at the end of the season not after the World Series), and plays the most physically demanding position in baseball. Last year he was the best all-around player and catcher in the league. He was worth 1.5 more wins than Molina last year, and deservedly was the single most valuable player to his team which ultimately wont he World Series.

Molina this year despite spraining his knee, a death sentence for most catchers, has one more hit than Posey and leads in most offensive categories compared to the other two, despite playing in 15 fewer games as the San Francisco backstop. Both players are worth 44% more runs than league average (WRC+)  but Molina is leading or tied for the lead in most other offensive categories. Molina is having a spectacular offensive season, not as good as Posey's 2012, certainly better than his 2013, and is in the running for the NL MVP in 2013.

This year there is no question who the best all-around catcher is, its Yadier Molina and it's not really close. Given that defensively it's a landslide, his offensive performance is outperforming his peers despite playing in fewer games and his team is in the running for a playoff spot, Yadier takes the cake and probably the hardware as well.

Stay Tuned,
Norton