So lets recap, see ya later Ellsbury and Saltalamacchia (Thanks be to God, and also with you, however that goes). Hello AJ Pierzynski and hello again Mike Napoli.
As of right now the lineup would look like this:
Victorino (S)
Nava/Gomes (S/R)
Pedroia (R)
Ortiz (L)
Napoli (R)
Bogaerts (R)
Pierzynski (L)
Middlebrooks (R)
Bradley Jr. (L)
That isn't a terrible lineup but losing the continuity of Ellsbury at the top of the order along with his base stealing ability will have some impact but not as much as you may think. Because as Billy Beane and Co. have taught us you are replacing aggregates NOT raw numbers. However, if there is the possibility to improve the lineup and I think there is, we should not hesitate to make the deal.
While I like Jackie Bradley Jr., having two other unknowns in the lineup in Middlebrooks and Bogaerts, invites the possibility for a slump by 33% of your lineup. I fully believe that Bogaerts will hit but the fact is that 1/3 of your guys don't have a full continuous season in Major League Baseball and that is difficult to bank on as a big market team. Playing two players with a limited track record is much more easily masked throughout a lineup of nine than three players, as odds are you will have to hit two of three back to back at some point (as evidenced above). Therefore, do you smell it? Yup I smell a trade.
It's time to call up the Milwaukee Brewers and look into their right-handed hitting outfielder. No not the one that drags innocent urine sample collectors through the mud, the other one.
My Proposal:
Red Sox Acquire: Carlos Gomez
Brewers Acquire: Clay Buchholz, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts
Why this makes sense for the Red Sox:
Carlos Gomez was the 2nd best CF in the NL last year in terms of WAR (7.6 tied with Miguel Cabrera) and would fill the void that Jacoby Ellsbury left at the top of the order. He also plays a better defensive center field than Ellsbury. He may not steal as many bases or hit from the left side but he just turned 28 and will be for the duration of the 2014 campaign. For those of you that are not familiar with what Gomez did last year for the Brewers let's have a looksee, shall we?
While Ellsbury walks a little more and strikes out less they are fairly equal offensively. He clearly has more power as evidenced in the .100 point difference in ISO and the .08 difference in SLG. Surprisingly in terms of overall runs created he created 30% more runs than an average player while Ellsbury only created 13%. Gomez was worth 1.8 more wins than Ellsbury last year by and large because of his defense. In looking at his scouting report he has a plus arm which would put plus arms in both RF and CF which is invaluable given how spacious Fenway Park is. It's not outrageous to say that he is double the player that Ellsbury is defensively.
Trading away Clay Buchholz may be a risky decision however in order to get something of value you must give up something of value. He may be a classic case of thriving in a different environment. The raw ability is there without question, but his inability to stay on the field for the Red Sox has made him far from "untouchable".
Bradley Jr. would no longer be necessary in the Red Sox organization because of the presence of Gomez therefore he would have to be in the trade and would replace Gomez in CF for the Brewers.
Why this makes sense for the Brewers:
The Brewers are not competing for a World Series in 2014. But in looking at their depth chart they have Yovanni Gallardo, Kyle Lohse and a bunch of nobodies, aka need to acquire pitching. No one wants to go to Milwaukee unless they overpay so acquiring via trade would seem to be their best bet in obtaining talent for their staff.
Enter Clay Buchholz.
When healthy he is very good, and would really lengthen their staff and has a relatively affordable contract. Obviously health is an issue and this would be contingent on health. In an abridged season for him he was masterful at times and worth 3.2 WAR. Pairing him against Lohse and Gallardo, he is unarguably the best pitcher of the three, which would give Milwaukee a top of the rotation-type pitcher.
Jackie Bradley would be the perfect center fielder for a team that is most likely not going to be in contention and can "get his feet wet" with a full year in the majors while not having to do so in the pressure cooker that is Boston, not to mention be cost controllable for the next 6-7 years.
Mookie Betts is someone that the Red Sox genuinely like and have said that he has the athletic ability to play other positions. However, he is blocked by Red Sox for life Dustin Pedroia at his primary position, Xander Bogaerts is a better player and is ready now to become a star at either 3B or SS so he is expendable and his value could not be higher despite being in A ball. His slash line of .314/.417/.506 along with 15 HR and 38 SB is definitely intriguing for a smaller market team to acquire.
If the Brewers were close to contending I don't think they would even think of doing this, but acquiring young affordable talent for 3-4 years down the road for when they are ready is something that makes sense for the Brewers at this juncture.
In terms of money, this also works because the AAV of Carlos Gomez is 8 million and the AAV of Clay Buchholz is 7.7. So you are essentially taking on 300K of salary between those two players which would even out when you factor in that JBJ is getting the league minimum (500K ish) for the year for the Brewers.
Here's hoping the trade-winds blow our way and we can talk about more than just an agitator behind the dish.
Stay Tuned
Norton
