Fantasy Forum Week 10: Studs and Duds

Another week of football, another list of those who may (or may not) excel in their upcoming fantasy matchups. I’m also going to start keeping a running tally of hits and misses by the fantasy forum staff here at Views from the Couch. A win if the pick proved correct a loss if the pick was a misfire and a ‘tie’ if the pick had a decent week but didn’t really blow anyone out of the water.

Last week: 2-2-2

Without further adieu (how over used is that saying? But anyway) here are the Views from the Couch week 10 studs and duds.

STUDS

Greg Olsen TE Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans

Olsen has been a bit of a feast or famine type of player this year, 3 double digit performances and 3 sub-4 point performances, but he has reeled in 4 TD passes from rookie phenom Cam Newton. Newton appears to be leaning slightly towards Olsen in recent weeks though Jeremy Shockey has snaked some of Olsen’s targets from the other TE spot. The stats don’t lie however and Olsen is still the 7^th ranked TE according to ESPN scoring and is projected to post 10 points this week against a Titans defense that yields 8.9 PPG to opposing TE’s and has been burned for 5 scores already this year by those TE’s. Start Olsen without fear and expect some big things out of him. I see him in the feast category for this week.

Stats: 5 rec, 73 yards, 1 TD

Maurice Jones-Drew RB Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts run defense

The Colts run defense can’t stop anyone even though CJ0K couldn’t crack the 40-yard mark against them 2 weeks ago but I digress. This isn’t about CJ0K and how he sucks this year but rather about how MJD has been a horse for the Jaguars. If you’ve seen Blaine Gabbert play then you’ll understand why MoJo is tied for the league lead in totes at 166. MoJo is also averaging 92.5 YPG which is good for 9 fantasy points guaranteed one a weekly basis without factoring in TD or reception points. The Jaguars give him the rock and often and against a soft Colts defense that’s yielding 21.3 PPG to opposing running games I love this matchup. Expect the Jaguars to take the ball out of Gabbert’s hands and put it into MJD’s to ensure that the Colts continue to ‘Suck for Luck’.

Stats: 26 carries, 115 yards, 1 TD, 1 rec, 7 yards

Dallas Cowboys D/ST vs. Buffalo Bills offense

Since lighting the world on fire in their first three games the Bills offense has slowed down considerably. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick did enough in those games to earn a 5-year extension but in the world of fantasy football, which is all we care about for this posts sake, he has been a dud the past 5 games. In his first three games he racked up totals of 24, 22, and 18 points but since then he hasn’t scored more than 14 points in a single game and has thrown 3 single digit performances out there. As far as the Cowboys defense is concerned these are all things working in their favor as is their phenomenal pass rusher DeMarcus Ware. Ware has already recorded 12.5 sacks through 8 games including 4 in a matchup two weeks ago against Vick and the Eagles. He’s going to be good for a sack or three against a weak Bills O-line. As a whole the Cowboys defense has scored double digits in all of their games against 2 duds: one against the Eagles and one against the Lions. Those two offenses are full of explosive playmakers that the Bills don’t possess. Start the Cowboys defense with confidence.

Stats: 4 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FumRec, 0 TD, 13 fantasy points

DUDS

DeSean Jackson WR Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals

The past two years Jackson has been Michael Vick’s go to target but this year he seems to have fallen to the number 2 option behind Missouri product Jeremy Maclin. Jackson hasn’t posted higher than 4 fantasy points in his past 3 games, including 0 against the Bears last week, since torching the Bills and 49ers secondaries for 14 and 17 points respectively. Out of the Eagles 8 games this year Jackson has posted three stud performances, week 1 vs. the Rams and the two I just mentioned, with the other five games falling in the dud category racking up 2, 3, 4, 3, and 0 points in those games. For a guy drafted to be a WR1 he has been a major disappointment and become increasingly riskier to start. I know the Cardinals secondary is dicey at best but Patrick Peterson is a prime time player, that ones for you Dick Vitale, and he is going to be covering Jackson. Vick has also struggled to connect with Jackson on their patented fly routes, which has hurt Jackson’s value. Until they get on the same page avoid Jackson.

Stats: 3 rec, 32 yards, 0 TD

Matt Forte RB Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions

Forte is going to get his yards against the Lion. Their run defense is nothing special and has been torched recently but the Bears are going to be forced into passing early and often once the Lions jump out to an early lead. This game is a perfect storm for Forte to not be able to take advantage of a Lions run defense that is asking to be sliced and diced for 150 yards and 2 scores. QB Jay Cutler is going to bothered all game since the Lions pass rush is ferocious and pays little to no attention to the running game instead pinning their ears back and heading up field on every play. I wouldn’t call Forte a dud this week as much as I’d say that he’s just not going to get the opportunities to post the big time number we’ve come to expect from the 5^th ranked RB. He hasn’t been as big a factor in the passing game the past two weeks and he fumbled on a reception last week. Forte won’t get fully utilized this week though I do expect him to go over a 100 yards but he won’t find the end zone.

Stats: 18 carries, 105 yards, 0 TD, 2 rec, 13 yards, 0 TD

Tiquan Underwood’s high top fade WR New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

With Taylor Price’s hamstring injury and Chad Ochocinco doing a great disappearing act the Patriots this week resigned preseason casualty Tiquan Underwood and his high top fade. Underwood is a former 7^th round draft pick of the Jaguars in 2009 and he’s seen the field sparingly since then but really all anyone cares about is whether or not he’ll be rocking the high top fade he sported during this preseason. I’m guessing if he wants to stay relevant he’ll stick with the flat top since that’s probably the only way he’s going to get Tom Terrific to notice him on or off the field. He’s not going to catch a pass and I pray you didn’t add him thinking he’s going to do something in the Patriots high octane offense but look for the guy with the high top fade on the sideline on Sunday night and you’ve found Underwood.

Stats: 0 rec, 0 yards, 0 TD, 1 all-hair team award

There you have it folks this weeks studs and duds list let me know what you think and we’ll see how accurate the prognostications where in a week. Good luck to all in their matchups this week.

Geoff Jablonski

The Quick Slant Week 6: Brady, Hernandez move the Pats to 5-1

After a week’s hiatus in order to provide an in depth preview of the Boston Bruins ‘The Quick Slant’ is back and better than ever. A brief synopsis of the game before I get into what I saw in particular and a few random thoughts on the game and its outcome. As most of you know the Patriots beat the Dallas Cowboys 20-16 yesterday with Tom Brady hitting Aaron Hernandez for an 8 yard score with :22 left in the 4^th quarter. Brady went 27/41 (identical to Romo) for 289 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 picks. Now that you’ve seen a final score and how Tom Terrific did on the day let’s get to some of the news and notes from the matchup.

-Thank God Buddy Ryan only had two defensive minded sons. Rex Ryan and the Jets (before last week) were 3-2 against the Patriots since he’s been at the helm and unceremoniously knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs last year. Rob Ryan, the current defensive coordinator of the Cowboys, was at the head of the Browns defense that before Sunday was the last d to hold the Patriots under 30 points in the regular season. Ryan guided defenses tend to give Brady and the Patriots some trouble for extended period of times. The common theme between the brothers Ryan ability to slowing down the Patriots is the ability to get pressure on Brady with 4 and a good amount of the time only 3 rushers. DeMarcus Ware is an absolute beast and he showed it again yesterday wreaking havoc on Matt Light and the Pats o-line all day long. He and the Boys d-line were able to take down Brady 3 times and the secondary picked up 2 interceptions. Until the final drive the Cowboys had done a great job of holding the Patriots in check but that’s just it: it’s almost impossible to hold them down for a full 60 minutes and Brady showed why when he marched down the field 80 yards with precision and accuracy to lead the Patriots to victory.

-Yesterday’s matchup between New England and Dallas provided a much clearer view of why Tom Brady’s one of the greatest of all-time and Tony Romo will never excel into the upper echelon. Brady scores TDs and is allowed to make plays when the game is on the line where Romo scores FGs and is forced to call a handoff dive off right tackle on 3^rd down in the Red Zone. Romo has been at this for almost 6 years now and he’s still not allowed to throw the ball late in the game with the game tied. The Cowboys would rather hand off and take 3 points instead of risking Romo throwing an INT. The Cowboys went 1-3 (TDs-atts) in the Red Zone yesterday with the Patriots going 2-4. Romo leads the Cowboys on long drives that yield 3 instead of the 7 points Brady and Patriots consistently put on the board.

-Andre Carter looked great yesterday putting 2 sacks on the board and disrupting multiple others. Carter is a strong presence in the locker room and the kind of guy you root for. He’s been in the league for 11 years and if he can continue the level of play that he brought to the table last week for the rest of the year the Patriots found them a gem on the scrap heap.

-If he’s healthy, and I know it’s a big IF, Albert Haynesworth can bring the noise. On one of Carter’s sacks yesterday Haynesworth occupied 3 (3!) blockers to allow Carter a free lane to Romo. His presence doesn’t always show up on the stat sheet but he is a beast and occupies multiple blockers on every play allowing the other linemen and linebackers free shots at the ball carrier. He can also provide some pressure up the middle, which for all his other talents and soft hands, Vince Wilfork isn’t the best at. He’s more of a run stuffer and block occupier than he is pocket collapser. Haynesworth is a pocket collapser.

-The Patriots turned the ball over 4 times yesterday including putting it on the ground for the first 2 times all year. They were lucky to win considering they lost the turnover battle 4-2. Yet, championship caliber teams win these games and the Patriots did just that.

-The Cowboys are way too skilled to be sitting at 2-3. They should pretty easily be at 5-0 with the talent they field at every position. If you look at the Pats and Cowboys man for man the only areas where you would give the Patriots a decided edge is Quarterback. Running Back is a close push and I’ll give the o-line to the Patriots slightly though the Cowboys have some talent but WRs? Cowboys. D-Line? Cowboys. DBs? Cowboys? LBs? Cowboys? The Patriots have 2 very good TEs whereas the Boys only have Witten but he just happens to be one of the 3 best in football. Not too shabby. Jerry Jones needs to figure out who is the right head coach for this team because Jason Garrett is nothing more than a glorified offensive coordinator. As we’ve all seen from when Belichick tried it a few years ago head coaches shouldn’t be the offensive coordinators at the same time. Find a strong personality to come in and lead this talented bunch to their place among the NFL’s elite.

-Finally, Chad Ochocinco might be close to putting ex-New England Patriot on his resume. He only made it on the field for 7 plays yesterday and none after the Patriots ran isolation for him on the left side and he ran the wrong route. Ochocinco ran an in instead of an out when the Patriots lined him up alone on the left with 4 WRs bunched on the right. After the game Brady said that he still believes Ochocinco can contribute but on the field you can tell that he’s lost all confidence in throwing him the ball and Ochocinco looks stiff and lot. He’s not playing fluid and loose like he did in Cincinnati. If he has any chance of making it in New England he has to dedicate himself to this offense play a little more carefree and think less. He’s a talented player and the Pats could use him down the stretch but we all know if he doesn’t produce soon Belichick won’t be afraid to cut ties and move on.

That’s all for this week folks we’ll see you again in two weeks since YOUR New England Patriots are on a bye this week. Until we cross paths again…

Geoff Jablonski