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Thursday, December 1, 2011

Time For a Change

Anyone can throw out trade rumors like those guys that say Jed Lowrie should be a centerpiece for King Felix, that's not the kind of business we're in here. What this piece is about is 3 players that if I was a GM I would explore trading, while the iron is hot.

Josh Hamilton
















Look, I love Hamilton. I love his story. But if I'm the Texas GM and I have the kind of potent offense down there that I have, (Kinsler, Napoli, Beltre, Young, Cruz) I'm trading Josh Hamilton for a stud pitcher, and making Prince Fielder my number 1 priority. You'll note that all the players that I listed with power are right-handed. If they traded Hamilton they'd need a big lefty bat. Prince Fielder at 23+ mil per year at 27 years old is a far more sure thing than Hamilton at 31 at 18+ mil per year over the duration of the contract.

With CJ Wilson all but out the door, they will certainly need an arm (or two) for their rotation. The Rangers took a chance on Hamilton and it has paid off spectacularly, that being said, he hasn't played more than 133 games since 2008, he has been prone to injury and he is on the wrong side of 30.

You never know what kind of adverse effects the years of substance abuse are going to have on his body and that's why signing him to a huge deal of around 20-mil per year for 4-5 years is very risky. It would be wise to explore trading him, for an arm now.

Call up San Francisco and inquire on Lincecum or Cain. Or maybe you call up Atlanta and look at Jair Jurrjens or Tommy Hanson.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia




One thing you shouldn't be getting in the habit of is trading young, affordable starting catching. I however, am sold on Ryan Lavarnway and will make an exception to trade him. This is not just from the small September sample size, but Saltalamacchia's erratic throws and unorthodox catching style are not my cup of tea. When his throws are accurate he has a heat-seeker behind the dish but too many throws are off line and you can see pitchers growing impatient with him when he can't consistently get the ball back to them.

Salty faded down the stretch and I think it speaks volumes that Lavarnway started game 162 last year. You only trade him if you can get a solid 4-5 starter or bullpen arm in return. Also, another provision is that you can obtain a defensive-minded backup catcher (Bengie Molina?), to mentor and work with Lavarnway.

Tim Hudson


The Atlanta Braves arguably have the deepest pitching staff and minor league system in all of Major League Baseball. But when push came to shove and they had a collapse only rivaled by the 2011 Boston Red Sox they didn't have enough offense to keep them afloat. (Scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games). They already traded Derek Lowe, but maybe it's time to lean more on the young guys and trade Hudson as well.

Hudson still has value. (3.22 ERA, 215IP, 1.14WHIP, .236BAA) While he may not have been the best of the "Big 3" (LOVED Mark Mulder, yes I'm a sucker for big lefties) out in Oakland, he was certainly most durable and has had the best overall career.

You only do this with the provision that you think you're young staff (Jurrjens, Hanson, Teheran, Vizcaino) can carry the load. Maybe you sign an Edwin Jackson as well who has a healthy track record, so you know you'll get 200+ innings out of atleast 1 pitcher.

Lots of moving parts during this Hot Stove period, and I honestly expect more. The price of some of these middling free agents is so exorbitant that I expect more trades than huge contracts this year.

Sneakily the Rockies just made a blockbuster trade when they traded away Chris Iannetta for a pitcher that really caught my eye next year, Tyler Chatwood. He doesn't have the prototypical body of a pitcher he's only 6 foot nothing, a buck 85 soaking wet. But this kid has a lot of tools...fastball that ranges from 91-93, solid change up and sharp breaking ball. Hopefully the switch to Coors Field doesn't doom him, but this kid is a legitimate talent. (Sidenote: Why are the Angels getting rid of Tyler Chatwood, for Chris Iannetta, he of the .172 batting average away from Coors Field?)

Love this time of year, everyone's an Armchair GM!

Stay Tuned

Norton

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