Yu Would Like To Play

The Texas Rangers delivered an early Christmas gift to their fan base, they hope, by winning the Yu Darvish sweepstakes with a record bid of $51.7 million. That’s $51.7 million just to hold a formal conversation with the young Japanese phenom not including the $50-60 million it’ll take to actually get him to pitch in Arlington. If you’re a Red Sox fan you’re probably holding back laughter and pointing your finger at the Rangers front office and thinking to yourself, “nice job Texas you just won the rights to the next Daisuke Matsuzaka.” I personally though am all in on the Whirling Darvish. I think he would’ve been money well spent for the Red Sox and believe that as long as the price tag is south of $125 million the Rangers got a great deal. Allow me to explain why Darvish’s situation is the polar opposite of Matsuzaka’s.

In my eyes the major difference between the two pitchers is their personal backgrounds. Daisuke was and still is a hermit crab whereas Darvish is a peacock thirsting for the spotlight. Matsuzaka is Japanese to the core and spent his entire childhood and adult life in that culture with his trip to become a Red Sox his first foray outside his comfort zone. Darvish on the other hand is the product of an Iranian father and Japanese mother. His parents met at Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida where his dad was a soccer player. His father went to high school in the United States as well and Darvish has made it known for years that he wants nothing more than to return to the land where his father went to high school and college to showcase his skills. He is also a national celebrity in Japan who is consistently seen enjoying the nightlife where Matsuzaka was a celebrity in his own right but didn’t allow his personal life into the media like Darvish does. Darvish wants to be the main attraction of the island nation. Yu Darvish isn’t only the best pitcher in the Japan Professional Leagues he’s the nations number one celebrity having achieved cult status at the ripe age of 21. The advantage in preparation for making the move from Japan to America goes to Yu Darvish.

Next lets break down Daisuke’s career in Japan with Yu’s. Daisuke spent 8 years in the NPB compiling a 108-60 record with a 2.95 ERA and 1,355 K’s. Over 7 years in the NPB Yu has compiled a 93-38 record with a 1.99 ERA and 1,259 K’s. They both won one Elji Sawamura Award as the best pitcher in Japan and two ERA titles and we’re selected to 5+ NPB All-Star Games but the difference is Darvish’s 2 Pacific League MVP Awards.  It shows just how much he means to his team that he has won 2 MVP’s over 7 years. Matsuzaka was a great pitcher in his own right but Darvish is on another level. They have both been the dominant and featured starting pitcher in Japan during their time in the NPB and we’re both the #1 pick coming out of high school. Their careers and numbers are nearly parallel though Darvish has had an ERA under 2.00 in the past 5 years with his 2011 season being the lowest at 1.44. For all the time Daisuke spent as the best kept secret in Japan, Darvish spent just as much time being the best pitcher in Japan and letting everyone know it. 

Each has an arsenal of pitches that are quite different though everything we know about Darvish’s pitch arsenal is heresay much like Matsuzaka’s was before he arrived in the Western World. Matsuzaka throws a fastball in the 90-92 MPH range, a slider/cutter in the mid-80s a changeup in the high 70s-80 range and a slow curve. There has been no gyro ball as was widely rumored but only a change up with fade into a right handed hitter. Yu throws a little harder fastball in the 92-95 MPH range, a hard slider around 80, and then an array of secondary pitches: cutter, curveball, changeup, and two seam fastball. Again most of those secondary pitches are hereseay and we’ll found out what he can really throw effectively when he gets to America. Physically Matsuzaka stands 6’0 tall and weighs 185 lbs. Yu towers over Daisuke standing at 6’5” and weighing in at 220 lbs. Physically Yu is built to succeed in the MLB’s 5-man rotation much more than Daisuke ever was. Daisuke was built for a 6 man rotation that tailored to his throwing routine, which consists of lots and lots of long toss, something that isn’t done but once every few days in America. Again I would personally favor Yu’s physical gifts more than Daisuke’s so I’ll give him the edge here too.

Now the final reason that I love the Darvish signing for the Rangers if they can finalize it: the market he’ll be playing in. Daisuke was thrust immediately into one of the two hardest markets, with New York being the other, in all of baseball to succeed in and asked to be an ace. He pitched quite well in his first two years going over 200 innings and 200 K’s in his first year and then racking up 18 wins with a 2.90 ERA. The past three years however have been wasted years watching his ERA, WHIP, and BB/9 skyrocket while his wins and IP have been on the decline. In true Boston fashion with each performance the expectations have been elevated leaving Matsuzaka virtually no chance of succeeding from here on out. In Texas, Darvish won’t be faced with nearly the same challenges from a media standpoint. He’ll also be helped out by the fact he’s joining an organization with the beginnings of a long-term juggernaut already in place. On the field the Rangers have a strong, fairly young starting 9 highlighted by 2010 AL MVP Josh Hamilton and perennial all-star 2B Ian Kinsler. The pitching staff is also strength for the Rangers even with the loss of SP C.J. Wilson. He’s being replaced in the rotation by former closer and relative flamethrower Neftali Feliz, who the Rangers are able to move due to the acquisition of rock steady CP Joe Nathan. The Rangers are coming off back-to-back AL Championships and World Series defeats. There isn’t the same amount of pressure on Darvish to be an ace like there was on Daisuke to be a savior in Boston. Darvish can come in and be a 3^rd starter on this team while he acclimates to his new surroundings and then in due time grow into the ace I think he can be.

My final analysis of the potential signing of Yu Darvish by the Rangers is that comparing it the Red Sox missteps with Daisuke Matsuzaka is like comparing Love Actually to Wedding Crashers. The two moves are/were done in completely different circumstances with different expectations in place. The Red Sox looked at Daisuke as a chance to crack the Japanese market wide open for themselves whereas the Rangers are looking at Darvish as a baseball player more than a global icon. From a baseball standpoint I also think that Darvish has a higher ceiling and, this is biased since I now know that Daisuke isn’t going to live up to the hype he came over with, is has a greater chance of reaching that potential. Darvish’s size and pedigree are going to be advantages for him during what is a major upheaval from the island of Japan to the great United States of America. In the end if the Rangers are able to sign Darvish to a 5 or 6-year deal for under $70 million dollars I think they’ve done a good job. That’s a guaranteed 5 or 6 years with 3 or 4 of those years being that of an ace at a well under market value contract. Can’t complain there if you’re the Rangers front office. Go sign Darvish, Jon Daniels and reap the benefits down the road. The Rangers are here to stay for a while. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski