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Wednesday, January 11, 2012

NFL Conference Semifinals Here We Come

Last week’s NFL Wild Card round provided a one close matchup and three blowouts, not exactly the most exciting Wild Card weekend I’ve ever seen. The one close matchup though featured two of the NFL’s most controversial quarterbacks in Ben ‘Rapelisberger’ Roethlisberger and Tim ‘The Voice of Christ’ Tebow. The Broncos played the game in reverse order of how they’ve been winning during the regular season by jumping on the Steelers early and then fumbling away a lead late allowing the Big Raper to bring back the Steel Curtain and send the game to OT. He forgot one thing though that on the other sideline Tebow Time was getting ready to make his playoff OT debut. One play in OT, one TD, one Broncos win. Off to New England for a date with the top seeded Patriots for the Tebow show. Man another blog about the NFL and again I’ve managed to allow Tebow to devour my entire first paragraph, oh well he’s a polarizing guy but anywho moving on.

In the other three games the enigmatic Giants easily dispatched the Falcons 24-2, the Texans ran by the Bengals 31-10 for their first franchise postseason win, and the Saints went aerial against the Lions for a final score of 45-28. That leaves us with the following matchups going into the Conference Semifinals: (3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers and the (4) New York Giants at (1) Green Bay Packers in the NFC with (3) Houston Texans at (2) Baltimore Ravens and (4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots. The chalk reigned supreme in the Wild Card round for the first time in a while leading to 4 darn good matchups this weekend. Let’s take a look at each matchup individually and then give you each View from the Couch bloggers picks.

NFC



(3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers

The Saints have been hotter than Gisele Bundchen in the past 6 weeks or so with Drew Brees leading the track meet. Their opponent this week, the 49ers, started off strong and stayed strong throughout the entire regular season behind first year head coach Jim Harbaugh and reinvented former #1 overall pick QB Alex Smith. The 49ers adopted a ground and pound approach for this year and it has paid huge dividends leading to a 13-3 record and first round bye. The Saints have an identical 13-3 record but win thru the air not on the ground and in the trenches like the 49ers. The outcome of this game will be determined by whether or not the 49ers can do enough to slowdown the Saints prolific offense. If the Saints can get into the 30s the 49ers will have trouble keeping pace. If the 49ers can keep the Saints in the low 20s however and use Frank Gore, depending on if the healthy Frank Gore shows up, to grind out the clock and put some points on the board at the end of long drawn out drives. Smith isn’t designed to lead a team on a comeback so that’s probably out of the equation. Get ahead early and stay there is the 49ers game plan.
PICKS: Geoff, ZHawk, Lang: NO, Norton: SF





(4) New York Giants at (1) Green Bay Packers

This is a matchup of the Week 13 show down when the Giants nearly knocked off the then undefeated Packers 38-35. The difference is this matchup is in Lambeau instead of at home for the GMen and the GMen also lost their only remaining corner with a pulse in Aaron Ross. The Packers finished the regular season 15-1 with their only blemish coming to a Chiefs team who had no business ruining their perfect regular season. They are led by All World QB Aaron Rodgers (Who’s Brett Favre again?) and a lethal receiving corps. Defensively the Packers have multiple playmakers in OLB Clay Matthews, DT BJ Raji, and CB Charles Woodson but that didn’t stop the Packers from holding down the 32nd ranked pass defense. That’s good news for the Giants who despite running for 172 yards last week against the Falcons are a pass first team led by Eli Manning who had a career year. The Giants will go as far as Manning and his right arm can take them. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks should present some problems for the Packers secondary but the key to the Giants passing game is going to be their embattled offensive lines ability to keep the Packers rushers at bay. Offensively for the Packers the key will be getting the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hand early thus negating the Giants stellar pass rush. If the Packers can do that and jump out to an early lead they should have no problem coasting to the Conference Finals. If the Giants on the other hand can get after Rodgers and disrupt his rhythm and timing then ladies and gentleman we’ve got a battle royale on our hands.
PICKS: Geoff, Lang: GB, Norton, ZHawk: NYG

AFC



(3) Houston Texans at (2) Baltimore Ravens

The vaunted AFC North put three teams into the playoffs but only one of them will be playing this weekend: the Baltimore Ravens who had a bye and didn’t have the opportunity to lose last weekend like the Steelers and Bengals. The Ravens earned the AFC North crown and their first round bye and thus get the beat up Texans at home in round 2. The Texans continued their season of firsts for the franchise by getting their first postseason victory during the season when they recorded their first winning record, their first division title, and first postseason appearance. Much of those firsts can be attributed to the emergence of a topflight defense led by great coordinator horrible head coach Wade Phillips. Phillips has turned around the league’s worst defense and made it a top 5 difference-making defense. It also doesn’t hurt to have a guy who is running like his hairs on fire (that one’s for you Richard Pryor) Arian Foster who racked up 154 yards and 2 TDs against a good Bengals defense. The biggest problem the Texans will have in this rematch from earlier in the year when Foster only ran for 64 yards on 15 carries is that T.J. Yates is your starting quarterback. You’re talking about a 3rd string rookie quarterback on the road. Yates is going to have to throw the ball around a little bit because you know Baltimore is going to stack the box against the run and shade all coverage towards Andre Johnson. The Ravens as always have a strong defense though it’s getting older I expect they’ll do a good job bottling up Yates. Offensively the Ravens will only go as far as Ray Rice can carry them. QB Joe Flacco has been a lightning rod for criticism because a lot of people feel he hasn’t taken steps forward but all he needs to do is protect the ball and make sure Ray Rice gets a million touches. If the Texans can get a few turnovers and hold Rice under 100 yards effectively making Flacco beat them deep they have to like their chances. Rookie WR Torrey Smith will also have to have an eye kept on him because he can easily haul in a 65-yard TD and swing the momentum Baltimore’s way. All eyes are on you to make sure that doesn’t happen Jonathan Joseph.
PICKS: Geoff, Norton: HOU, Lang, ZHawk: BAL



(4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots

Another week and another team gets Tebowed. Tebow Time is making its first career appearance in round 2 of the playoffs against the top seeded Patriots. These two teams played in Week 15 at Mile High and the Patriots whooped up on the Broncos 41-23 ending the Broncos 6 game winning streak and sending them into a tailspin to end the season. The Broncos still won the putrid AFC West however and then somewhat shocked the world by sneaking by a decimated Pittsburgh Steelers team in round 1. Tim Tebow only completed 10 passes but managed to rack up 316 yards (204 of them to Demaryious Thomas) and 2 scores. He also rushed the ball 10 times for 50 yards and a score. Tebow and the Broncos have unreal momentum not to mention God on their side but the last time they played the offensive juggernaut Patriots they got dismantled. No the Patriots can’t stop anyone thru the air but luckily for them Tebow can’t hit receivers consistently and that was before he, most likely, lost his top target WR Eric Decker after he got hit hard by James Harrison last week (shocker). In that mid December matchup the Broncos ran the ball in the first quarter for over 160 yards but after that they only managed to rack up 80 yards total in the next 3 quarters. The Broncos also jumped out to an early 16-7 lead only to give up 34 straight points to the Pats. The Patriots are led by two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl Champion QB Tom Brady and the Hoodie. The Patriots are the closest thing to a dynasty that football has seen since the Niners in the late 80s and the Cowboys in the early 90s. Though the Patriots haven’t won a playoff game in 3 years they are focused and ready to derail the Tebow Train and take advantage of their home field advantage throughout. With WR Wes Welker and TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez the Patriots have weapons in all sectors of the field. The emergence of rookie speedster RB Stevan Ridley only adds to Brady’s arsenal. This matchup is a battle of a guy who is riding waves of momentum to this game vs. a quarterback who has seen it all and done it all, and done it well. Unless something crazy happens on Saturday night the Patriots are the stronger team with the more talented roster and appear to have a great shot at moving on to the AFC Conference Final, which would be held at Gillette in Foxboro. The Hoodie is 4-6 lifetime against the Broncos including the playoffs but I don't think he's too worried about that. Before signing off and giving the VfC’s picks on this game I want to mention the Patriots bringing back former coordinator and Broncos coach Josh McDaniels. For anyone who thinks that Belichick did this solely to rattle the Broncos and get a leg up on what they might be thinking about running offensively I have two words for you: grow up. Belichick has never been one to make impulsive moves he brought back McDaniels because the team has heaps of success under his tutelage and with QB Bill O’Brien taking the job at Penn State it made sense to bring back someone who has already had success in the current system.
PICKS: Geoff, Lang, Norton, ZHawk: NE

There you have it folks a breakdown of all 4 matchups that the NFL has to offer this upcoming weekend. The only team that all 4 bloggers agreed would advance appears to be the hometown Patriots. Otherwise we’re all split, which tells me that this matchups are going to be juicy and provide some good entertainment so tune and check em out. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

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