The NFL Final Four

And then there were four…

The NFL season has been going on now for a calm, cool 18 weeks and week 19 is here to determine who will square off in the big one: the Super Bowl at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The conference championship games will be played this Sunday with the AFC pitting the Baltimore Ravens against the New England Patriots and the NFC showcasing the New York Giants at the San Francisco 49ers at 3 and 6:30 PM, respectively. The games will be taking place as far away as possible with the Patriots and 49ers playing host to some hostile guests. Since there are only two matchups on the docket for this weekend each blogger has provided not only a pick of who will win each game but a score as well for all you degenerate gamblers out there wondering whether or not to take the points or the over/under. The favorites will have the amount they favored by in parentheses with the over/under being listed below.

(2) Baltimore Ravens at (1) New England Patriots (-7.5) Over/Under: 50.5 pts

This game is a rematch of the 2009 playoff matchup that sent the Patriots into their two-year playoff-losing spiral. The Ravens drubbed the Pats 33-14 with Ray Rice setting the pace early by scampering for a 83-yard TD run on the first play from scrimmage. It only got worse from their for the hometown Patriots as Tom Terrific only completed about half his passes for 154 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs. Joe Flacco only completed 4 passes for 34 yards on that fateful day but it didn’t matter as Ray Rice ran for 159 yards on 22 carries and 2 of the Ravens 4 TDs on the ground. One major factor that people tend to forget about that horrific loss by the Patriots is that Wes Welker didn’t play in that game after blowing out his ACL during a meaningless week 17 matchup with the Houston Texans. The Patriots were a one-dimensional team then and they are now but without Welker they couldn’t even be one-dimensional.

What does that playoff defeat by the Patriots have to do with the week’s matchup? Well, it has a good amount to do with it because I’m sure that stinging defeat is going to be fresh in the minds of multiple Patriots who were embarrassed on their home field by a very similar Ravens team only two years ago.  Tom Brady is a man on a mission right now knowing that if he can get back to the Super Bowl and win it that’ll put him in the upper echelon of the all time great QBs along with the only other two men to win 4 Super Bowls: Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw. Brady is fully aware of his legacy and knows that he has a chance to do something few others have ever had the chance of doing. If he can win on Sunday and propel his team to the Super Bowl he’ll be making his 5th Super Bowl start in a 10-year period. The only other person who has made 5 Super Bowl starts is John Elway and he did that over a 12-year period. Brady has a chance to cement his place in the pantheon of great QBs and I don’t see him letting an aging but still dangerous Ravens defense stand in his way.

For the Ravens the key is taking Hernandez out of the game. With his newfound skills as a running back Hernandez has become even more of a dynamic threat. Hernandez has become the absolute matchup nightmare for defensive coordinators between his ability to lineup in the backfield, run like a wide receiver, and muscle defenders off the ball like a tight end a la Gronk. He is the perfect complement to both Gronkowski and Wes Welker. The Ravens are exceptional at stopping the run thanks to a solid linebacking corps and the two-headed monster up front of Haloti Ngata and Cory Redding. In the passing game however the Ravens defense isn’t as formidable as past years. The cornerback position has become somewhat of a revolving door with LaDarius Webb being the only recognizable name and at safety Ed Reed still is a ball hawk like no other but he isn’t the same Ed Reed as two years ago. Injuries to his hips and ankles have helped slow him a little bit. Don’t underestimate this group though they can still hold any offense under 24 points and keep the offense in the ballgame. Speaking of the offense…

The Ravens offense starts and ends with Ray Rice. He’s the team’s leading rusher and leading pass catcher. For all the things Joe Flacco isn’t the one thing he can most certainly do is throw the ball deep to rookie WR Torrey Smith. Smith hauled in 7 TD receptions this year and they were all of the long bomb variety. Anquan Boldin is still a threat that needs close monitoring between the 20s but he isn’t much of a red zone threat. If TEs Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta sit down in the soft spots in the zone and make catches they can cause some problems too but in the end it all comes down to Rice. It’s up to the Patriots patchwork defense to keep Rice from grounding and pounding them into the ground and working the clock against the Patriots. If Rice and the Ravens can get some traction early and keep the ball out of Brady’s hands while putting up some points then the home team could be in for a long dog fight. This ballgame will come down to who can contribute more on the offensive side of the ball: Ray Rice or Tom Brady.

Picks: Geoff – NE 31-17, Norton – NE 27-17, Lang – NE 35-17, ZHawk – NE 34-21

(4) New York Giants at (2) San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) Over/Under: 42 pts

In the nightcap the New York GMen will be making the long cross-country flight out to the city of hills San Francisco. To no surprise to any football fan out there the Giants for like the 10th consecutive season did their best to be named football’s Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde. You never know what you’re going to get from them when they step on the football field. Are they the team that unseated the number one seed and overwhelming favorite 15-1 Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field or the squad that got blown out much worse than the score shows in a 23-10 home game against the ghastly Washington Redskins? The Giants had an up and season to say the least finishing at 9-7 scraping into the playoffs as the NFC East champion after the Cowboys shit the bed down the stretch. The Giants started 6-2 after beating the Patriots in Foxboro then fell to 7-7 after the abysmal loss to the ‘Skins and now are slight favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (bettors side note: though the 49ers are ‘favored’ by 2.5 pts that technically means the Giants are favored by a half a point because every home team is generally given a 3 point cushion at home).

The 49ers on the other hand have been the model of consistency all year long. They were 6-2 on the road, 7-1 at home. They won blowouts and they won close games that came down to the wire. They’ve won ball games by playing stellar defense against both the run and the pass, they didn’t give up their first rushing TD on the year until week 17, and hoarding the ball on offense while allowing David Akers to kick mass quantities of field goals. For the most part the 49ers don’t put up big points with QB Alex Smith going from bust to turnover free game manager this year basically working carefully between the 20s. Their biggest threats on the offensive side of the ball are RB Frank Gore, when he’s healthy, WR Michael Crabtree, whose really come on as of late, and physical freak TE Vernon Davis. Davis was a force to be reckoned with against the Saints last week and if he can play like that again this week then watch out below Giants’ fans. If the 49ers get the ground game working early and open up some holes for Smith to pick apart a decimated Giants secondary it could be a good day for 49ers fans to start dreaming of a trip to Indianapolis, never thought I’d ever say anyone is ‘dreaming’ of Indianapolis but this year all four of these teams are.

The key to this game for most people though is, again, what version of the Giants is going to walk out onto the field Sunday evening (afternoon out west) at Candlestick Park? If the Giants team that has been steamrolling through the playoffs shows up the 49ers defense better be their usual dominant selves or else the Niners’ offense is going to be forced into a shootout for the second straight week. They barely survived last week against the ultimate track meet champion New Orleans Saints and I don’t know if rookie coach Jim Harbaugh has enough bullets in the chamber to succeed two weeks in a row by deviating so far from the teams typical game plan. The Giants have been a team en fuego as of late with Eli Manning slinging the ball to all his weapons the past few weeks and watching teams struggle to decide which one of his weapons to leave single covered. WR Hakeem Nicks has shown up in a big way helping out breakout star WR Victor Cruz. The key to the Giants playoff offense however has been RB Ahmad Bradshaw who was running with abandon early in the year only to be sidelined for a few weeks due to a broken foot. Now that he’s back and being the dynamic guy he can be, he carried my fantasy team on more than one occasion this year, it has allowed RB Brandon Jacobs to go back to doing what he does best, which is be a change of pace back and wear down the defensive line. The 49ers are great run stuffers but if the thunder and lightning tandem of Bradshaw and Jacobs can soften them up at all it’ll open up the back end for Manning whose had a career year. This year he got smarter with the ball and has done a much better job at finding the open receiver not just his favorite receiver.

Defensively it’s pretty easy to see what the Giants game plan is. Stop the run and then allow their stable of unreal pass rushers to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. If they can stand up Gore and RB Kendall Hunter at the line and force the Niners to the air then their trio of rushers can do what they do best: get after the QB. The emergence of DE Jason Pierre-Paul as one of the most dynamic rushers in the league has allowed DEs Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck to be freed up a little more and get more opportunities at taking down the quarterback. When all three of them are in the game the offensive line is forced to single cover one of them making him look like Deacon Jones due to each ones abilities to win a one-on-one matchup with a left or right guard every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Key for the 49ers offense then becomes clear: get the running game going early, score touchdown and don’t kick field goals, and force the Giants great pass rush to stay honest against the run game. For the Giants it’s simple but oh so complicated for them to do on a consistent basis: show up.

Picks: Geoff – SF 23-21, Norton – SF 14-10, Lang – SF 27-17, ZHawk – SF 21-17

There you have it loyal readers a long drawn out and theory breakdown of both the AFC and NFC conference championship matchups. If you’re a gambling man I’d say you can take the Views from the Couch picks to the bank and if not enjoy the games this weekend gentleladies and men. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

NFL Conference Semifinals Here We Come

Last week’s NFL Wild Card round provided a one close matchup and three blowouts, not exactly the most exciting Wild Card weekend I’ve ever seen. The one close matchup though featured two of the NFL’s most controversial quarterbacks in Ben ‘Rapelisberger’ Roethlisberger and Tim ‘The Voice of Christ’ Tebow. The Broncos played the game in reverse order of how they’ve been winning during the regular season by jumping on the Steelers early and then fumbling away a lead late allowing the Big Raper to bring back the Steel Curtain and send the game to OT. He forgot one thing though that on the other sideline Tebow Time was getting ready to make his playoff OT debut. One play in OT, one TD, one Broncos win. Off to New England for a date with the top seeded Patriots for the Tebow show. Man another blog about the NFL and again I’ve managed to allow Tebow to devour my entire first paragraph, oh well he’s a polarizing guy but anywho moving on.

In the other three games the enigmatic Giants easily dispatched the Falcons 24-2, the Texans ran by the Bengals 31-10 for their first franchise postseason win, and the Saints went aerial against the Lions for a final score of 45-28. That leaves us with the following matchups going into the Conference Semifinals: (3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers and the (4) New York Giants at (1) Green Bay Packers in the NFC with (3) Houston Texans at (2) Baltimore Ravens and (4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots. The chalk reigned supreme in the Wild Card round for the first time in a while leading to 4 darn good matchups this weekend. Let’s take a look at each matchup individually and then give you each View from the Couch bloggers picks.

NFC

(3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers

The Saints have been hotter than Gisele Bundchen in the past 6 weeks or so with Drew Brees leading the track meet. Their opponent this week, the 49ers, started off strong and stayed strong throughout the entire regular season behind first year head coach Jim Harbaugh and reinvented former #1 overall pick QB Alex Smith. The 49ers adopted a ground and pound approach for this year and it has paid huge dividends leading to a 13-3 record and first round bye. The Saints have an identical 13-3 record but win thru the air not on the ground and in the trenches like the 49ers. The outcome of this game will be determined by whether or not the 49ers can do enough to slowdown the Saints prolific offense. If the Saints can get into the 30s the 49ers will have trouble keeping pace. If the 49ers can keep the Saints in the low 20s however and use Frank Gore, depending on if the healthy Frank Gore shows up, to grind out the clock and put some points on the board at the end of long drawn out drives. Smith isn’t designed to lead a team on a comeback so that’s probably out of the equation. Get ahead early and stay there is the 49ers game plan.

PICKS: Geoff, ZHawk, Lang: NO, Norton: SF

(4) New York Giants at (1) Green Bay Packers

This is a matchup of the Week 13 show down when the Giants nearly knocked off the then undefeated Packers 38-35. The difference is this matchup is in Lambeau instead of at home for the GMen and the GMen also lost their only remaining corner with a pulse in Aaron Ross. The Packers finished the regular season 15-1 with their only blemish coming to a Chiefs team who had no business ruining their perfect regular season. They are led by All World QB Aaron Rodgers (Who’s Brett Favre again?) and a lethal receiving corps. Defensively the Packers have multiple playmakers in OLB Clay Matthews, DT BJ Raji, and CB Charles Woodson but that didn’t stop the Packers from holding down the 32^nd ranked pass defense. That’s good news for the Giants who despite running for 172 yards last week against the Falcons are a pass first team led by Eli Manning who had a career year. The Giants will go as far as Manning and his right arm can take them. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks should present some problems for the Packers secondary but the key to the Giants passing game is going to be their embattled offensive lines ability to keep the Packers rushers at bay. Offensively for the Packers the key will be getting the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hand early thus negating the Giants stellar pass rush. If the Packers can do that and jump out to an early lead they should have no problem coasting to the Conference Finals. If the Giants on the other hand can get after Rodgers and disrupt his rhythm and timing then ladies and gentleman we’ve got a battle royale on our hands.

PICKS: Geoff, Lang: GB, Norton, ZHawk: NYG

AFC

(3) Houston Texans at (2) Baltimore Ravens

The vaunted AFC North put three teams into the playoffs but only one of them will be playing this weekend: the Baltimore Ravens who had a bye and didn’t have the opportunity to lose last weekend like the Steelers and Bengals. The Ravens earned the AFC North crown and their first round bye and thus get the beat up Texans at home in round 2. The Texans continued their season of firsts for the franchise by getting their first postseason victory during the season when they recorded their first winning record, their first division title, and first postseason appearance. Much of those firsts can be attributed to the emergence of a topflight defense led by great coordinator horrible head coach Wade Phillips. Phillips has turned around the league’s worst defense and made it a top 5 difference-making defense. It also doesn’t hurt to have a guy who is running like his hairs on fire (that one’s for you Richard Pryor) Arian Foster who racked up 154 yards and 2 TDs against a good Bengals defense. The biggest problem the Texans will have in this rematch from earlier in the year when Foster only ran for 64 yards on 15 carries is that T.J. Yates is your starting quarterback. You’re talking about a 3^rd string rookie quarterback on the road. Yates is going to have to throw the ball around a little bit because you know Baltimore is going to stack the box against the run and shade all coverage towards Andre Johnson. The Ravens as always have a strong defense though it’s getting older I expect they’ll do a good job bottling up Yates. Offensively the Ravens will only go as far as Ray Rice can carry them. QB Joe Flacco has been a lightning rod for criticism because a lot of people feel he hasn’t taken steps forward but all he needs to do is protect the ball and make sure Ray Rice gets a million touches. If the Texans can get a few turnovers and hold Rice under 100 yards effectively making Flacco beat them deep they have to like their chances. Rookie WR Torrey Smith will also have to have an eye kept on him because he can easily haul in a 65-yard TD and swing the momentum Baltimore’s way. All eyes are on you to make sure that doesn’t happen Jonathan Joseph.

PICKS: Geoff, Norton: HOU, Lang, ZHawk: BAL

(4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots

Another week and another team gets Tebowed. Tebow Time is making its first career appearance in round 2 of the playoffs against the top seeded Patriots. These two teams played in Week 15 at Mile High and the Patriots whooped up on the Broncos 41-23 ending the Broncos 6 game winning streak and sending them into a tailspin to end the season. The Broncos still won the putrid AFC West however and then somewhat shocked the world by sneaking by a decimated Pittsburgh Steelers team in round 1. Tim Tebow only completed 10 passes but managed to rack up 316 yards (204 of them to Demaryious Thomas) and 2 scores. He also rushed the ball 10 times for 50 yards and a score. Tebow and the Broncos have unreal momentum not to mention God on their side but the last time they played the offensive juggernaut Patriots they got dismantled. No the Patriots can’t stop anyone thru the air but luckily for them Tebow can’t hit receivers consistently and that was before he, most likely, lost his top target WR Eric Decker after he got hit hard by James Harrison last week (shocker). In that mid December matchup the Broncos ran the ball in the first quarter for over 160 yards but after that they only managed to rack up 80 yards total in the next 3 quarters. The Broncos also jumped out to an early 16-7 lead only to give up 34 straight points to the Pats. The Patriots are led by two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl Champion QB Tom Brady and the Hoodie. The Patriots are the closest thing to a dynasty that football has seen since the Niners in the late 80s and the Cowboys in the early 90s. Though the Patriots haven’t won a playoff game in 3 years they are focused and ready to derail the Tebow Train and take advantage of their home field advantage throughout. With WR Wes Welker and TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez the Patriots have weapons in all sectors of the field. The emergence of rookie speedster RB Stevan Ridley only adds to Brady’s arsenal. This matchup is a battle of a guy who is riding waves of momentum to this game vs. a quarterback who has seen it all and done it all, and done it well. Unless something crazy happens on Saturday night the Patriots are the stronger team with the more talented roster and appear to have a great shot at moving on to the AFC Conference Final, which would be held at Gillette in Foxboro. The Hoodie is 4-6 lifetime against the Broncos including the playoffs but I don't think he's too worried about that. Before signing off and giving the VfC’s picks on this game I want to mention the Patriots bringing back former coordinator and Broncos coach Josh McDaniels. For anyone who thinks that Belichick did this solely to rattle the Broncos and get a leg up on what they might be thinking about running offensively I have two words for you: grow up. Belichick has never been one to make impulsive moves he brought back McDaniels because the team has heaps of success under his tutelage and with QB Bill O’Brien taking the job at Penn State it made sense to bring back someone who has already had success in the current system.

PICKS: Geoff, Lang, Norton, ZHawk: NE

There you have it folks a breakdown of all 4 matchups that the NFL has to offer this upcoming weekend. The only team that all 4 bloggers agreed would advance appears to be the hometown Patriots. Otherwise we’re all split, which tells me that this matchups are going to be juicy and provide some good entertainment so tune and check em out. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

Fantasy Forum Week 14: Studs/Duds

For most of your leagues across the ESPN and Yahoo! Fantasy football platforms the playoffs begin this week if you were fortunate enough to get that far. For all of you in the playoffs good luck going forward and for those of you who playing in the consolation bracket well there’s always going to be next year. Without further adieu let’s move on to your week 14 studs and duds.

STUDS

Carson Palmer QB Oakland Raiders vs. the Green Bay Packers

Palmer has actually been a pretty good starting QB for the Raiders and fantasy owners alike since being inserted in week 9. He hasn’t scored below 10 points in the 5 games posting lines of 19, 15, 16, 10, and 16, respectively. The Packers score points in bunches and force other teams to throw. Luckily for their opponents their secondary hasn’t been all that solid this year and has been giving up yardage at a record pace, luckily for the Packers the Patriots pass defense has been even worse thus they aren’t last in the league. I see the Raiders getting down early and Palmer being forced to the air early and often. It’s not going to be pretty but he’ll put up over 300 yards and a few scores.

Stats: 326 yards, 3 TDs, 2 Ints

Chris Johnson RB Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints

After sucking thru the first 8 games of the year Johnson has turned it on the past 4 weeks, minus a 2 point performance against the stout Falcons run defense, scoring above 17 points 3 times. In those three games Johnson has gone for at least 130 yards with 3 scores total. He’s always a threat to catch a few passes out of the backfield and the Saints don’t do an overly good job of stopping the run. The key for Johnson is the Titans not being forced to the air too early for him to be able to find running lanes cause they’ll be there. I’m thinking that the Johnson from the past two weeks and last season is going to show up again in week 14.

Stats: 22 carries, 126 yards, 1 TD, 4 rec, 32 yards, 0 TD

Dez Bryant WR Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants 

The Cowboys have been taking to the air in the recent weeks with Bryant and Laurent Robinson being the main beneficiaries. Tony Romo has been throwing TD passes at a pretty good clip and Bryant’s reeled in at least 1 score in 3 of the last 4 games. This week I don’t see being any different when you look at the Giants 29^th ranking against the pass. Miles Austin is returning this weekend but I only see that helping Bryant get open. I expect to see Bryant dancing in the end zone.

Stats: 6 rec, 89 yards, 1 TD

DUDS

T.J. Yates QB Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals

A rookie QB without his top WR against a top 5 defense? I’ll pass thank you very much. Yates scored in double digits last week, 10 points, but that was with Andre Johnson reeling in 4 catches for 97 yards before he was forced to exit the game after he hurt his hamstring. That hamstring is going to keep him out of this week’s matchup with the stingy Bengals defense leaving Yates to lean on TE Owen Daniels who’s been a no show all year and WR Jacoby Jones who can’t seem to grab onto the reigns as a number one wideout. The Texans are going to lean heavily on RB Arian Foster and keep the ball out of Yates hands. Sit him.

Stats: 159 yards, 1 TD, 2 Ints

Dwayne Bowe WR Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets pass defense

Bowe hasn’t found the end zone in 7 straight games and he’s about to take a vacation on to Revis Island. Advantage: Revis and the Jets. Tyler Palko is also still going to be under center for the Chiefs after Kyle Orton hurt himself last week after 1 play last week against the Bears. That equals bad news for Bowe and the Chiefs. He’ll get targeted but I don’t see him reeling in too many of those targets and especially none in the red zone.

Stats: 4 rec, 45 yards, 0 TD

Pierre Garcon WR Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens

Garcon has had 3 huge games this year scoring over 24 points in each of them. The other 9 games he hasn’t been able to crack 8 points with outputs of 3, 2, 8, 3, 3, 6, 2, 4, and 3. He reeled in 2 TDs against the worst pass defense the league has ever known, the record books will confirm this at the end of the year, and racked up 150 yards on 9 catches. With Dan Orlovsky at QB attempting to become the first man to ever lead two teams to 0-16 records I don’t see Garcon repeating that success against the 7^th ranked Baltimore Ravens pass defense. The offense isn’t strong enough all around to support Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon having huge games and if I had to put my money on of them I’d take Wayne and his past success. Don’t look to either though to carry your team with a weak offensive line and Dan Orlovsky throwing the passes.

Stats: 3 rec, 36 yards, 0 TD

There you have it my faithful readers week 14 of the NFL is about to get underway and you now know who to start and who to sit. Good luck in the playoffs! Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

NFL Playoff Picture Getting Clearer: AFC Breakdown

We’re now through 12 weeks and the playoff race in the AFC has started to take a more definitive shape. There are 9 teams vying for 6 spots, the cutoff is the Bills at 10 so sorry Buffalo but losing 4 in a row and your top offensive player in Fred Jackson doesn’t allow you to be vying for a playoff spot anymore. Of those 9 teams the Bengals, Broncos, and Titans all appear to shift from week to week on whether they are pretenders or contenders. I know that Denver starts Tim Tebow at quarterback and shouldn’t really be in this conversation but there’s not much else to say other than he’s 5-1 as a starter and the team, mostly the defense, rallies around him more and more each week. They can’t score a lick and I’m pretty sure John Fox has Tebow running a dumbed down version of the offense from “Football for Dumbies” but a win is a win. Back to the subject at hand this isn’t going to be a rant or rave about Tim Tebow but a look at all the teams, here is how the AFC top 9 line up currently:

1. Houston Texans (8-3)
2. New England Patriots (8-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (8-3)
4. Oakland Raiders (7-4)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
7. New York Jets (6-5)
8. Denver Broncos (6-5)
9. Tennessee Titans (6-5)

Now let’s break these standings down and I’m going to throw at you how I think this race is going to shake out.

You are seeing straight that is the Houston Texans sitting in the top slot. A franchise that has never had a winning record is currently your number one seed though I see that changing in the near future with the news that Matt Leinart is out for the year and the team just signed Jake “Day Light Come And I Wanna” Delhomme. The Texans are still going to win the weak AFC South but I don’t see them holding onto the top spot over the likes of the Patriots and Steelers. They’ll settle in nicely to the 3 seed ahead of the (spoiler alert!) AFC West champion Oakland Raiders. The other shoo-ins as far as this blogger is concerned are the Patriots, Ravens, and Steelers. Those three teams know how to win when the mercury drops below 32 and the calendar turns to January, I don’t see that changing this year. All three sit at 8-3 with each having the possibility of running the table. The Patriots play an extremely weak schedule the last 5 weeks of the year so I see them penciling in as the 1 seed with a 13-3 final tally. The Steelers and Ravens will battle it out for the other bye and the 2 seed. I’m going to lean towards the Ravens since they’ve already beaten the Steelers twice thus owning the tiebreaker. All they have to do is play the Steelers even down the stretch and they get the coveted bye through the wildcard weekend. Steelers will finish either 12-4 or 11-5 securing themselves the 5 seed behind the 4 division winners. Between the Patriots, Ravens, Texans, and Steelers that’s four spots out of six locked down let’s take a peek at who might grab those final two openings.

Handicapping The Rest of the Field

We’ve now decided the definite lets look at who’s left and who is going to punch a ticket to the dance and who’s going to be left out in the cold. I’m going to eliminate the Tennessee Titans from the race right off the bat. CJ1K has been a ghost all year and has only had two really good games all year and they came against the porous run defenses of the Tampa Bay Bucs and Carolina Panthers. Against everyone else he’s struggled to break the 40-yard mark while Matt Hasselbeck has been firing off interceptions like it’s going out of style. They still have games against the Saints and Texans left I don’t see them cracking the 10 wins it takes to even sniff the playoffs. Titans are off the list.

Next team up that I’m going to eliminate is those pesky Denver Broncos. There hasn’t been a simpler offense run in the NFL since the ball was oval shaped and passing was considered awkward at best. The Broncos beat the Chiefs a few weeks ago after attempting only 8 passes, completing 2, and running the ball 55 times. This week they beat the free falling Chargers in OT with Tebow completing 9-18 and running the ball over 20 times. I personally fall under the belief that it’s more of an indictment on the Chargers and Chiefs not playing well than the belief that this high school option offense will have continued success at the NFL level. There’s a reason that option quarterbacks don’t transition from college to the pros if they did the quarterbacks of Army, Navy, and the Air Force would all be top 10 picks. Tebow is winning now but teams will realize he’s not a threat to pass the ball effectively and the magic will run out. Broncos land on the outside looking in.

Eliminating the Broncos means that I’m crowning the Oakland Raiders the AFC West champions as I mentioned a few paragraphs above. The Raiders have actually been playing halfway decent with Carson Palmer steering the ship and Michael Bush picking up the slack while Run DMC’s foot heals. When the Raiders get him back and have their entire WR corps healthy the Raiders will stand a punchers chance moving forward. They can hold off the Broncos and their Tebowing. They’re in as AFC West champions and the 4 seed.

Then there were two…the current 6 seed Cincinnati Bengals and the 7 seed New York Jets. It kills me to say this as a diehard Pats fan but I’m going to concede the 6 seed to the Jets in the end. They have an easier schedule down the stretch than the Bengals and though Mark Sanchez has done nothing to show he has a semblance of consistency he’s been to the AFC Championship game twice and can somewhat handle playing under stress. The Bengals are lead by a rookie quarterback who has exceeded all expectations in the redheaded fireball Andy Dalton. Dalton has had an extraordinary season by all accounts but I don’t think he can beat the Texans, Steelers and Ravens down the stretch while the Jets get the likes of the Redskins, Chiefs, reeling Eagles, Giants, and Dolphins. The Jets have a pretty good shot at winning out whereas the Bengals would do well to win 2 out of 3 of those games, their other two games are against the Rams and Cardinals I’m going to chalk those up as W’s. The Bengals have had a much better year than anticipated in year 1 of the Dalton experience and I think next year they’ll be dancing with the big boys but this year they’re going to be left waiting for a prom date. Jets wrap up the 6th seed and if there’s justice for being obnoxious ego inflated pricks they’ll be bounced in round 1 by the Texans. If not then hopefully the Steelers or Ravens can serve them papers in round 2.

There you have it folks that’s why I see the AFC playoff race playing out and stay tuned for my take on the NFC race tomorrow night. Let me know what you think.

Geoff Jablonski

Fantasy Forum Week 11: Studs/Duds with a little Sleeper action

Last week: 5-1

Season totals: 8-4

Week 11 has arrived folks and its time for this week’s Studs/Duds here at the Fantasy Forum brought to you by Views from the Couch. Last week was a strong week for yours truly nailing 5 out of 6 picks, thanks for not showing up for your meeting DeSean Jackson making me look like a genius appreciate it. This week we’re going to be bringing you a special edition with 4 studs, 3 duds, and 2 sleepers.

STUDS

Carson Palmer QB Oakland Raiders vs. Minnesota Vikings inadequate pass defense

Since being acquired from the Bungals and Mike Brown for 2 future 1^st round picks (nice trade Oakland) Palmer hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire. He’s thrown 5 TD passes as opposed to 7 interceptions and fumbled twice for good measure. Expect all of that to change this week however. Palmer has managed to sling the rock for 332 and 299 yards the past two weeks respectively and he’s now facing the 31^st ranked pass defense. Denarious Moore also appears poised to continue his ascent up the Raiders WR depth chart and Palmer loves lobbying it up deep to him. Expect big things this week in Minnesota for Carson.

Stats: 30-44, 325 yards 3 TD 1 INT

Brandon Marshall WR Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills pass defense

Buffalo is 25^th against the pass this year and is 31^st against opposing teams #1 wide receivers, which is exactly what Marshall is for the Dolphins. Since coming out of the gate on fire in the first 2 weeks and then slowing down for a few games Marshall has picked it up the past 2 games going for 8 rec, 106 yards and a score and 7 rec for 98 yards. He gets targeted on more than 50% of the Dolphins pass plays so opportunities are aplenty on a weekly basis for the man with the notorious case of the dropsies. He’ll get his yards every week the question as always is can he find the end zone and grab those 6 extra fantasy points. This week I’m going to go with yes.

Stats: 7 rec, 112 yards 1 TD

Brandon Jacobs RB New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles atrocious run defense

With Ahmad Bradshaw already having been ruled out for the 3^rd consecutive week Jacobs is in line to get the lion’s share of the carries against the Eagles this week. The Eagles can’t stop anyone on the ground and Jacobs used to be a good back. I see the possibility of him regaining some of that old form this week against a run defense that is surrendering over 20 fantasy points a game to opposing backfields. He’s received 18 carries in each of the last two games I think he’ll get around 20 this game and make the most of them while finding the end zone to boot.

Stats: 20 carries, 85 yards, 1 TD, 2 Rec, 12 yards

New England Patriots D/ST vs. Kansas City Chiefs and starting QB Tyler Palko

The Patriots defense has struggled all year to stop anyone, which you already know if you live in the New England area and read the paper, watch TV, or listen to the radio. It’s well documented how the Patriots lack elite personnel on defense to create turnovers at the same clip they did last year when they finished a league best +28 in takeaways/giveaways. Insert the Kansas City Chiefs sans QB Matt Cassel and RB Jamaal Charles and viola all your defensive ills are cured. Last week against the Sanchize and the Jets the Pats D/ST racked up 17 points I think they can approach that number again this week. Palko was cut from NFL Europe a few years back, enough said. The Patriots defense will have a strong day for the second straight week.

Stats: 275 yards against, 7 points, 2 INT, 1 FumRec, 3 Sacks

DUDS

Andy Dalton QB Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

Last week Dalton somewhat came back to earth against a strong Steelers defense in an AFC North showdown. This week is another AFC North battle against a Baltimore Ravens defense that always brings the pressure and heat on opposing QB’s. In none of the past 3 weeks has Dalton thrown for more than 217 yards twice finishing under 200 I see that continuing this week especially with star rookie and favorite target WR AJ Green banged up and approaching the rookie wall. UPDATE: Green has been ruled doubtful for this weeks tilt against the Ravens making Dalton’s task even taller against the league’s number one pass defense.

Stats: 15-33, 167 yards 1 TD 2 INT

Beanie Wells RB Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers stout run defense

The 49ers have the top ranked run defense in the league and Wells is an enigma. After a few big weeks early in the year and a solid game against the Ravens 3 weeks ago (83 yards, 1 TD) juicy matchups against the Rams and Eagles seemed like great opportunities to rack up major points. Wrong. Bells ran for 20 yards and 62 yards putting 3 and 6 points, respectively, on the board fantasy wise. If he couldn’t run all that well against the weakest run defenses on the league I don’t see much reason why he’ll torch the best run defense. UPDATE: Wells has been ruled Questionable for this weeks matchup so if you have him I wouldn’t run the risk of starting him.

Stats: 14 carries, 34 yards, 0 TD

Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Oakland Raiders vs. Minnesota Vikings

Even though his QB, Carson Palmer, is in the studs category I’m going to put Heyward-Bey in the duds section. Since Palmer took over the starting job in Oakland Heyward-Bey has disappeared. He doesn’t appear to have any chemistry with Palmer causing him to put up back to back goose eggs. What’s so frustrating about that for fantasy owners is that the previous 4 weeks with Jason Campbell under center Heyward-Bey actually seemed like a guy worthy of being drafted 7^th overall in the NFL Draft, news flash he wasn’t. He had put up 11, 15, 8, and 8 points making it look like he was trending upwards but alas he is back to the Darrius Heyward-Bey who recorded to goose eggs thru the first 3 weeks.

Stats: 1 Rec, 7 yards, 0 TD

SLEEPERS

I’m not going to put up any stats predictions for the following two players but I am going to put a brief blurb on why the Couch thinks that it might be wise to grab the following two players for the stretch run.

Kendall Hunter RB San Francisco 49ers

If you own Frank Gore in any of your fantasy leagues I’d suggest picking up Hunter quickly before someone else scoops him up. With Gore ailing and the 49ers already having seemingly wrapped up the NFC West, they own a 5 game lead on the 2^nd place team with 7 to play I like their odds, Hunter is going to get some carries going forward. He managed to rack up 40 yards and a TD on 6 carries last week. He’s been getting 8 or 9 carries pretty consistently all year and I think that number will actually trend upwards in the coming weeks. Hunter’s going to see carries while the 49ers attempt to keep the ever-fragile Gore healthy for a playoff run.

Damian Williams WR Tennessee Titans

When Kenny Britt went down in week 3 with a torn ACL the Titans #1 WR spot was vacant waiting to be taken. At first it appeared that Nate Washington would step in and fill that role but he’s been somewhat of a disappointment and Williams is slowly catching up to him. QB Matt Hasselbeck is targeting and gaining more and more confidence in Williams each and every week. Williams has found paydirt in each of the last two weeks while also racking up 107 yards last week. He has 4 scores on the year and I don’t see Hasselbeck decreasing his targets moving forward. If he’s available in your league, he probably is considering he’s only at 7.2% ownership, scoop him up and reap the benefits.

There you have it folks another week here at the Fantasy Forum. We’ll see you next week for week 12’s Studs/Duds.

Geoff Jablonski