After a brief hiatus from the blogosphere in honor of the Super Bowl week off, ok so maybe I just wasn’t feeling very inspirational at the moment but either way, I’m back and ready to bandy about how I think Super Bowl XLVI between YOUR New England Patriots and the New York Giants will unfold.
If you’re reading this post currently there’s a good chance that you are aware of the fact that the Patriots and Giants squeaked by the Ravens and 49ers, respectively, a week and a half ago in the AFC and NFC Conference championship games. The Pats and Giants wins resulted in a rematch of the infamous Super Bowl XLII tilt. Again as most of you probably know the undefeated, 18-0, Patriots came into that game seeking to become only the second team ever to run the table, along with the ’72 Dolphins right Mercury Morris?, and the first ever team to go 19-0. The Giants came into that Super Bowl led by an enigma at QB who symbolized the entire vibe of that team all year long, a solid ground game, a stellar front four defensively, a coach who defined the word disciplinarian, and an upset of the Green Bay Packers and Brett Favre at Lambeau Field in -23 degree wind chill. Not to reopen old wounds for Patriots fans but we all know how that game turned out: David Tyree made the only catch of his career on his helmet and the Giants ended the Patriots season with a defeat 17-14.
Most of the media figureheads in the past week and a half have been attempting to link the outcome from Super Bowl XLII to a prediction for Super Bowl XLVI and let me tell you right now don’t waste your time. The only bearing that that game from 4 years ago is going to have on this game is that Brady is realizing he might not get many opportunities to be back on the big stage. I don’t think he could care less whether the Pats were going to be play the 49ers or the Giants all he seems focused on is tying Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw at 4 rings apiece. That would move him permanently into the pantheon of winners with the ability to possible reach the summit and be crowned as the winnest QB ever. On the line for Eli Manning is the possibility to grab his 2nd ring, one more than his much more lauded older brother Peyton has, and pour a little more concrete mix on his candidacy for Canton and football immortality. I think if he can take down the Patriots for the 2nd time on football’s biggest stage he’ll stand a pretty damn good chance of getting elected into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. But enough about the QBs and their legacies lets take a look at what I think are the major keys to this game (in no particular order I’m just working stream of conciousness over here):
How effective will the Giants vaunted front 4 be against the Patriots solid offensive line and subsequently how well will the Giants Swiss cheese offensive line be able to slow down Vince Wilfork? To me personally the biggest wildcard in this game is Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP had a year for the ages racking up 80 tackles from the DE position to go along with 16.5 sacks. When he came out of college he was labeled as a very raw talent who didn’t start playing football until he was 16 and in just two years he’s morphed into possibly the premier defensive lineman in football behind maybe only Jared Allen out in Minnesota. His athleticism is unreal and makes Jevon Kearse (the original freak) look like a slouch. He is the key to whether or not Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck are matched up one-on-one with an opportunity to disrupt the Patriots horizontal passing attack. If the Patriots are forced to constantly double team JPP or run plays away from his side because he’s wreaking mass quantities of havoc then the Giants stand a good chance of holding the Patriots offense to a score far south of 30.
On the other side of the coin though is the beast Vince Wilfork. He singlehandedly won that game for the Patriots against the Ravens by making 8 or 9 plays that made your jaw hit the floor with his ability to occupy two sometimes three blockers and STILL get to the ballcarrier in the backfield or grab a hold of QB Joe Flacco. When Wilfork gets playing like that it’s easy to see why he’s considered one of the elite defensive lineman in football. He’s an absolute load and I don’t see David Baas who got injured against the 49ers and will not be 100% being able to slow him down for very long. The rest of the Patriots defensive line is also quite underrated from Brandon Deaderick to Kyle Love. The matchup in the trenches will, like it usually does, play a major role in the outcome of this game. I’d give an edge to the Patriots slightly due to the Giants porous offensive line.
The next key is will Rob Gronkowski be ‘The Gronk’ or will he be more of a decoy? Don’t read into the fact that he hasn’t practice yet since the AFC Championship game. Belichick knows that his sprained ankle needs maximum time to heal and it’s not like Gronkowski doesn’t know the offense or hasn’t gotten enough reps throughout the year. He’ll be fine mentally, well as fine as Gronk can be mentally, on Sunday the real question is what form of Gronk are we going to see? The beast who set a single season record for TDs and receiving yards by a TE or an injured decoy who has to leave all the production to the TE position to come from Aaron Hernandez? Hernandez getting all the production isn’t a bad alternative since he’s a matchup nightmare but he’s made that much more effective by Gronk’s ability to run the seam route to perfection. Gronkowski opens up the underneath for Welker and Hernandez to do what they do best and that’s get yards after the catch. Gronk is also Tom Brady’s binky. When things get tough he knows he can just lob it up to the physical phenom at TE and he’ll reel it in 95% of the time and if not it’ll fall incomplete. Gronkowski is on pair with Pierre-Paul physically in that he has revolutionized how people look at the TE position. He can stay in as a mauler on the offensive line due to his size being equivalent to that of a tackle but he can also run good routes and has the hands of wide receiver. The Patriots need at least 85% of the Gronkowski they had during the regular season if they want to be able to put up big numbers against the Giants. The Patriots passing attack is predicated on Gronkowski stretching the field somewhat vertically to allow the little guys to work underneath. I also believe that it’ll be imperative for Deion Branch to look like the Deion Branch of old and help pick up some of the slack that’s bound to occur with Gronkowski’s ankle injury. Branch is more than capable of snagging 5 or 6 balls for 80 to 90 yards and helping keep the Giants defense honest.
The last key to the matchup that I’m going to discuss before throwing out a final score prediction is whether or not Belichick truly plans to use the same philosophy on the Giants offense as he did against the Rams ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ offense back in February 2002. In that game Belichick basically instructed his defensive backs to mug the Rams receivers at the line and for his LBs and Ss to punish Marshall Faulk every time he touched the ball. The Giants are built somewhat similar to that 2002 version of the Rams with Eli Manning having a career year throwing the ball to his All-Pro and breakout of the year #1 WR Victor Cruz and #1a Hakeem Nicks. The Giants don’t run the ball extremely well but Brandon Jacobs is a bruiser who can wear the defense and Ahmad Bradshaw is a good slasher out of the backfield who is dangerous as a receiver.
Belichick stated in an interview over the weekend that he intended to use the likes of Julian Edelman to attempt to disrupt the Giants wide receivers at the line with his CBs actually playing the safety position per se picking up the wide out after they’ve been bumped at the line. It’s an interesting strategy to put the physical safeties, or in Edelman’s case Jack of all trades, up at the line to disrupt the receivers and then allow the corners who can’t beat either wideout in a foot race to pick up the slack and cover them the rest of the way downfield. If Cruz and Nicks are allowed to run free off the line of scrimmage and head downfield then I think the Patriots defense is in for a tough battle. The Giants receiving corps is a much more potent unit then the one the Patriots faced in 2008 and if they are given the chance Eli and Company will prove it on Super Sunday. I am a fan of the idea of the Patriots attempting to rough up the Giants slippery wide receivers because I think it’s a better strategy then allowing Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty to attempt to lockdown Cruz and Nicks when we all know they won’t be getting much help from the safety position. Patrick Chung is a run stopper not a coverage guy and the other safety position is a revolving door of guys who can’t cover. In my book physical is the way to go against this Giants attack.
Final Prediction for the game: Patriots 31, Giants 24
I think they Patriots are going to be able to exact some revenge, more for the fans than for themselves considering almost the entire team from the 18-1 season is gone, and put up over 30 on the Giants shaky at times brilliant at others defense. In my mind 30 is the key if the Patriots score over 30 I think they’ve got it in the bag if they are held south of that number then you may just see the Giants upset the Pats, though most people in New York seem to think a Patriots win would be an upset, for the 2nd time in 4 years. Expect offense folks and for the Patriots not to allow the Giants front four to pressure Tom Brady nearly as much in the ‘rematch’ allowing him to have a big day and claim that 4th Super Bowl ring. Until we cross paths again.
Geoff Jablonski
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