Who's It Gonna Be?

The Boston Red Sox have more questions heading into this spring training than in recent memory, and I think the competition is a good thing. Last year with everyone pigeonholed in their positions there was complacency to start the year and complacency to end the year. As much as I still am not an advocate of Bobby Valentine's brash antics, (honestly, why are you bringing up Derek Jeter's flip from almost a decade ago?) the one thing he is doing is running his camp how a camp should be ran. Longer practices, more hitting, more fielding and more fundamentals. A lot of the players seem to forget that baseball isn't something that should be taken for granted and is much more gratifying when it is grasped through hard-work, blood and sweat.

One of the more intriguing story lines of this spring season is going to be who wins the battle for the fifth spot in the rotation. Let's face it, Lester, Beckett and Buchholz have their spot sewn up. They wouldn't have ramped up Bard all off season to put him back in the pen unless he was catastrophic in the spring. So there is ONLY one spot for the taking, let's take a look at the candidates:

Alfredo Aceves, 29- (10-2, 2.61 ERA, 114 IP, 80K, 1.105 WHIP, 2.9WAR) Fettuccine had a phenomenal year as a spot starter and 'Ace' reliever. He saved the bullpen many times and also bailed out the starters more often than not. However he drilled 3x more guys (15) in 2011 than he had in any other season and his walk rate was the highest it had been in any of his prior 4 seasons. His WHIP was actually quite good, but if he is going to be plunking that many player be it because of stubbornness or lack of control the last thing this team needs is someone who is going to put base runners on without earning the base.

Aaron Cook, 33- (3-10, 6.03 ERA, 97 IP, 48K, 1.691 WHIP, .2 WAR) At the beginning of 2011, Aaron Cook had strengthened his shoulder and seemed ready for the long haul when during spring training jammed his finger in a door, and was set back 4 weeks. He wasn't the same after that and his statistics suffered. That coupled with pitching in Colorado made for a long 2011. He is not a power pitcher, he pitches to contact and has a real heavy sinker.

Vicente Padilla, 34- (2010 stats 6-5, 4.07 ERA, 95IP, 84K, 1.084 WHIP, .7 WAR) Vicente Padilla was all but out of baseball in 2011 because of a poor attitude. He doesn't walk many guys and he has great stuff, according to scouts he was back to hitting the mid-90's in Dominican League and his secondary pitches were back to par. This would essentially be his last chance in the MLB if he doesn't clean up his act in the clubhouse.

Ross Ohlendorf, 29- (2010 stats 1-10, 4.07 ERA, 108.1IP, 79K, 1.385WHIP, 1.9WAR) 2011 was another guy whose 2011 season was all but lost and without looking at his W-L record of 2010 (because he pitched on a putrid Pirates team) his season was pretty good. He's another guy that will rely on his defense because he will not over power hitters but he went to Princeton and is regarded as one of the smartest players/pitchers in the game with his ability to break down film and use computers to generate outs on the mound.

Felix Doubront, 24- (PAW stats 2-5, 4.22 ERA, 70.1IP, 61K, 1.298WHIP, 0WAR) In 2011 Felix came into camp overweight and out of shape and ended up getting injured because of it. Thus far in 2012 Doubront has shed pounds and come into camp with an urgency that would suggest he's ready for the big leagues. The Red Sox could use another lefty every five days, but Felix has the same durability questions that plague Ohlendorf and Cook.

Andrew Miller, NOT A GODDAMN CHANCE

There are two different opinions here as to who SHOULD get it and who I think will get it. All things being equal Alfredo Aceves SHOULD get it because of how good he was last year but if I'm the manager I am 100% not taking him out of my bullpen. He is much more valuable throwing 3-4x a week at multiple innings in high leverage situations than 1 per week at 6-7 innings per start. He has a rubber arm which is something you can't teach, keep him in the stable.

Vicente Padilla, right now, probably has the inside track. He's a hard thrower with excellent secondary stuff. Cook and Ohlendorf at this point I don't think are anything more than the 8-9 guys in the rotation that one of them might make the bullpen and the other will be stashed away in Pawtucket for the dog days in August or if a cataclysm of injuries arise.

Despite Padilla having the inside track, Doubront is something to watch. Doubront doesn't come with half the baggage that Padilla does of being an absolute meat whistle in the clubhouse and that could be a saving grace. The one downside is that Doubront still has options and Padilla does not. They will option him back down to Pawtucket and try their hand with Vicente before handing the reigns over to a young'n. Because of the frugality of the Red Sox they will most certainly send him down, unless he is lights-out in the spring. Light's out meaning Sub-2 ERA, WHIP below 1 and striking out double the amount of guys as innings pitched.

None of the options are sure things, but at least there are options.

Stay Tuned

Norton