Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Nick Punto
for
James Loney, Allan Webster, Ivan Dejesus Jr (PTBNL's Rubby De La Rosa, Jerry Sands)
The Dodgers pick up 262.5M in salary
Drink that in. I'll give you a second to toss away the used Kleenex's because I went through six tubs of Jergens and 18 boxes of Puffs while on Twitter Friday night. This is not going to be a short blog post, so buckle up and enjoy the ride.
First we should look at what the Sox sent packing.
Josh Beckett (31.5M left on deal)- His time was up in Boston and despite the talent that he still possesses, he is no longer what the Red Sox want as a leader for their pitching staff. His WHIP is the highest of his career, and the attitude which used to accompany a winning mentality has turned into surliness and poor performance. It would not surprise me if Josh Beckett pitched well for LA because he will be pitching to weaker lineups, much larger parks especially in the NL West, and I do believe in the 'change of scenery' mantra.
Carl Crawford (102.25M left on deal)- This was the most surprising part of the deal to me. There is no precedent for any team ever trading for a player while he was on an operating table. He will not be ready for Opening Day next year so for them to take that kind of salary on in a player that has under-performed more than any other player in baseball relative to their contract it is a huge risk. His skill-set was too similar to Jacoby Ellsbury's at the time of his signing and the Red Sox already have one of baseball's best 2 hitter. Everything about his skill-set and game was redundant on the Boston Red Sox. I didn't like the signing at the time, I dislike it more now, and I'm not sure if he can handle it in Hollywood either.
Adrian Gonzalez (127M left on deal)- He was the reason that the Dodgers took on Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett. He is a Top 10 hitter in baseball over the last 6-7 years and will be a force in the middle of LA's lineup. With LA's new front office about to sign a new TV deal and being the largest Mexican-American demographic in the US, obtaining Adrian Gonzalez was a move that worked for business and for baseball. That being said, his laissez-faire attitude, blaming God for everything good or bad, and inability to really take responsibility for his role in anything regarding the Red Sox was surprising; given the type of player everyone thought he was and who he claims he is. As far as baseball is concerned, he's a stud. He knows the NL West very well and will have no problem living up to the contract which relative to his peers (Pujols, Votto, Texiera) is a relative bargain. However, is Adrian Gonzalez worth 56 million dollars per year which is essentially what it's costing the Dodgers while Crawford, Beckett and Gonzalez are all on the same roster.
I will not waste time talking about Nick Punto so let's look at what the Red Sox got in return.
James Loney- He's not you're prototypical slugging first baseman and the last few years have been underwhelming after a promising rookie year. He will be on the team for the rest of the season and I wouldn't be surprised if he's non-tendered after the season and the Red Sox opt for more power at a corner position via free agency.
Allan Webster- He's a 6'3'', 185 lbs right hander who going into the year was the Dodgers number 2 prospect and the 95th best prospect in all of baseball. In 27 games at AA this year for the Dodgers he has worked to 6-8, 3.55 ERA and 117 strikeouts in only 121.2 IP. He has a mid 90's fastball and also a curve, slider and changeup. One of my favorite sites, FanGraphs says that "he would slide into the Red Sox top 15 prospects at number 3 behind Matt Barnes and Xander Bogaerts". This is a player that could potentially be seen in Boston in 2013.
Ivan Dejesus Jr- He is easily the worst player among the lot. He was once a promising player but a horrific broken leg moved him from SS to 2B full-time and his defense has suffered because of it. A classic throw in and if he makes it to the Bigs is someone who will be a utility infielder at most. He was out of options so he made sense as a classic throw in for a trade.
For people that don't know why players are classified as PTBNL or Players to be named Later both Rubby de la Rosa and Jerry Sands are/were on the Dodgers 40-man roster. Because they didn't clear waivers and didn't give the option to all other teams to attempt to claim them they can not be dealt until the end of the season.
Rubby De La Rosa- Rubby de la Rosa is the wild card in this deal. He is coming off Tommy John surgery, but prior to Tommy John surgery he was throwing 100 mph. He appeared in one game for the Dodgers probably to showcase his health and he hit 96 on the gun and will only get stronger. The lack of power arms in the Red Sox system makes him immediately a commodity who's average fastball was 95.2 higher than Justin Verlander's. He has an unpredictable ceiling with the kind of arm he has which could be higher than Webster's, a solid back end of the bullpen reliever or just another arm.
Jerry Sands- Sands is a player that definitely has some power, but his numbers though extremely impressive are misleading. This year he has hit .303 with 24 HRs and 103 RBI in AAA. Looking at those you'd think you just signed a Triple Crown candidate but he plays in a league that is full of small ballparks that have players launching balls out left and right. For those thinking that Fenway park is a hitter's park as well, you're right but on average Fenway Park is a +8 for run differential and the fields that Sands has been frequenting are a +30. That is not to diminish what he has done but the numbers need to be taken into consideration. He could be in the mix for an outfield spot in 2013.
Now that you've seen what the Red Sox have given up and are getting in return what do I think of this trade?
This trade does not help them win right now, but it sets them up for the future. This is a franchise altering trade that has, in its wake, given Ben Cherington the keys to the Cadillac.
The new found financial flexibility has erased the remnants of Theo Epstein's mistakes (aside from Lackey) and has also expunged Larry Lucchino and his over-riding voice on the personnel front. This is Ben Cherington's team, and with this deal, he gets to build it how he wants it. And to be quite clear, he's the only person I trust that's already employed on Yawkey Way, that I would want putting my team together.
He is a former college baseball player, from a small town in New Hampshire, that despite all the corporate double-speak knows exactly what direction the Red Sox were headed. He is a Red Sox fan at heart. He is living the dream that most baseball loving/playing boys wet dream about when you live in the Northeast. Cherington made it a point to chastise his former boss (Theo) and the current owners when referencing "discipline" and that is exactly what the Red Sox need. He is the man for the job, now let's let the man work.
There are a few other issues to look at that is part of the fallout of this trade:
Bobby Valentine- Look, I do not think he's had a good season and I didn't think it was a good hire. I've said that time and time again. I also based that opinion on the roster as it was constituted at the time of his hire. With a roster with far less egomaniacs, that is the kind of environment that Bobby V has found his success. I think that this move has unfortunately assured Valentine of at the very least playing out his guaranteed 2-year deal. But at least you are putting Valentine in the best place for him to succeed with a roster full of people that want to prove that they aren't a bunch of for lack of a better word, assholes.
David Ortiz- With all the money that came off the books most people thought, "it's time to give Ortiz the 2-year deal he's been coveting." If Ben Cherington is true at his word (and remember the word is discipline) he will not give Ortiz two years just because the funds are there. The market for DH's is not what it once was and he has made more than double what the next closest full-time DH makes. The Red Sox should offer him one year at 8-10 million dollars. If other team's get into the bidding than you can entertain the thought of a two-year deal. But remember this, Ortiz will be a 38-year-old player that is coming off an Achilles injury that has kept him out for what will amount to be the final two months of the season. They need to start doing business more judiciously and Ortiz is not immune to it.
Jacoby Ellsbury- He is the most difficult case because he has been wildly inconsistent. Ridding themselves of Carl Crawford has opened the door to sign him long term which was effectively shut with him on the roster but you need to tread carefully before signing him. With Jackie Bradley on the cusp of his Major League career, you need to seriously look into dealing him before you sign him long term. If you can package him with other players for a stud starting pitcher you have no choice but to do it. If he is willing to sign a deal like the ones signed by Pedroia, Lester or Buchholz than you explore the extension, but given his agent and Ellsbury potential it is unlikely to see the hometown discount, but not out of the realm of possibility (Think Jered Weaver). If he doesn't, you let him walk and collect the draft picks.
I'm going to wait to get into more off season talk until the hot stove starts up but the best thing that came from this trade that it feels like Boston has their team back. The in-mates are no longer running the asylum and it feels like quietly John Henry has taken Larry Luchhino out back and beat him with a switch. All the while given Ben Cherington the authority to run the baseball team. The image of Ben Cherington sitting in front of the Red Sox logo, answering questions; giving thoughtful, honest and transparent answers makes me giddy with excitement that someone that knows what they are doing is running the organization. The future is no longer dim for the local nine but buzzing with hope and promise.
Stay Tuned
Norton
It's clear that getting the money off the books was a fantastic move for the Red Sox front office and dealing away some of the more fiery personalities like Beckett was another advantage of this trade as well. With that said, do you think that they will/should look to shop Pedroia next. Although he is considered one of the top 2nd basemen in the game, he was right in the middle of the epidemic that took over the Red Sox clubhouse.
ReplyDeleteFrom my point of view the Sox can take this trade in one of two directions. The first would be, as you mentioned, lock up Ellsbury to a long term contract followed by Pedroia. They have been on winning teams and have the ability to take over the clubhouse as veterans of the team and set a precedent of grit, hard work, and most importantly winning. The second option could be to deal both away and raise a new wave of youth like Middlebrooks, Cody Ross, Buckholz, etc.
I agree fully that the pendulum has swung back to the Front Office. They have asserted that they, not the team, run the organization. Some of the pressure comes off of Bobby V and they are beginning to establish a chain of command. Regardless of whether the players flourish in LA this was a move that had to be done, although at this time last week trying to tell sports fans that one team would take all of the money and players would have been outrageous.
Regarding Pedroia it's really hard to say. If you asked me 6 months ago I probably would have laughed at you but you have to wonder that with this move they have just said we're done letting the players be detrimental to the organization without consequence. (point and case: Alfredo Aceves suspension)
ReplyDeleteHe had a bordering on unprofessional love for his first and only manager before BV, so much so that Tito is actually his sons godfather. That being said I wonder if the front office calls him in and says "we want to know if you're going to buy in? If Valentine is not someone that you can play for we'll deal you, let us know". As much as I don't like valentine, that's the way I'd play it with Pedroia.
Ultimately I think he is salvageable and that they will keep him. He's now in his prime and one of the top 3 players at his position in baseball. He also embodies the kind of player that I would want on my team. I'm willing to give him a mulligan for this year and his conduct.