Sox Take Great First Step but Be Careful Not To Fall on Your Face With the Second

As my esteemed colleague wrote about and broke down piece by piece earlier today, here's VfC's own Ryan Norton's breakdown - read it now, the Red Sox and Dodgers pulled off a doozy of a trade at the most unlikely of times. I'm not here to breakdown the deal that sent Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto, and all of their bad contracts (expect you, Punto) to the Dodgers for Chavez Ravine's tenants top 2 pitching prospects, starting 1b, and some mid level prospects. What am I going to write about however is how yes it was a great step forward by the Red Sox after what has been an abysmal calendar year seeing them possess the 3rd WORST record in the AL over that time frame but that the Red Sox need to be careful not to fall flat on their faces this offseason/early next year.

By finding a taker for Josh Beckett's final 2 years, Carl Crawford's next 5 years, and Adrian Gonzalez's remaining 6 years the Red Sox were able to unload approximately $260 million in contracts. It did leave the team with a hole at first base but the ability to rid themselves of Crawford's albatross was well worth the price of losing Gonzalez and add Beckett's departure to the mix and you've got yourself a damn good deal. As for what's coming the Red Sox way it's incredible to me that there are ZERO BAD CONTRACTS coming back at them after unloading 3 megadeals. The only major league player the Red Sox received was the light hitting James Loney who's contract is up after this year anyway. The 2 pitching prospects the Sox managed to haggle from the Dodgers both have top of the rotation upside with Rubby De La Rosa possessing a top fastball and top of the rotation secondary stuff but a questionable ability to harness all his talent and he did have Tommy John Surgery recently but he looks good so far getting an appearance with the Dodgers in the past week. Allen Webster is also a top tier talent with a hard sinker that's been compared favorably to Derek Lowe's - not a bad thing at all.

Now that between myself and Ryan we have beaten this deals components to death it's time to look at what's next for the Red Sox moving forward and so far I don't like some of the ideas I'm hearing floated.

This offseason the Red Sox are going to have a ton of money to play with but by no means do I think that they need to get antsy and repeat history by throwing that money away on players who don't fit the long term plan that GM Ben Cherington has laid out in his mind. With this trade the Red Sox have the ability to look themselves in the mirror and honestly assess the young talent they have in their system currently and determine whether or not they're comfortable where they stand. The number one name I'm hearing Red Sox fans throw around is Josh Hamilton and how they believe the Sox should go after him once he finishes out his current contract with the Texas Rangers.

Now I agree that Hamilton is an absolute force to be reckoned with but there's a reason that the Rangers are allowing him to play out this year at 31 before deciding whether or not to engage in talks in what will be a contract in the 6 to 8 year range at $20+ million annually. Hamilton is a 31 year old in his 6th major league season and in only 1 of those years has he played more than 133 games (156 in 2008 at 27). His history of drug addiction is also a red flag as he had a relapse last offseason and it's not quite known exactly how much damage he did to his body through his persistent drug abuse early in his career and if I'm the Red Sox I don't think that's a risk I'm willing to take especially after taking a similar risk with Carl Crawford just two years earlier. The Red Sox also have a lot of OF options in their minor league system highlighted by Jackie Bradley, Jr., Bryce Brentz, Ryan Kalish, and Che-Hsuan Lin. I'd prefer to give one of those guys the opportunity to seize a starting OF job at Fenway over locking yourself into 6 years of a player who will deliver serious bang for the buck in the first 2 or 3 years but will inevitably fade in his 35-37 year old seasons.

The deficiency I believe the Red Sox truly need to address this offseason is their starting pitching and I don't think that this winters number one free agent Zack Greinke is an option. Greinke is a classic small to mid level market pitcher who doesn't appear to have any intention of playing in any of baseball's pressure cookers and doesn't have the makeup to handle it. Greinke is a stud when he's playing in front of small crowds as evidence by his Cy Young Award for Kansas City in 2009 and his success for the Brewers the previous season and a half. Since being dealt to the LA Angels in July of this year however he's struggled mightily going 2-2 with a 5.22 ERA in 6 starts and allowing 43 hits in 39.2 IP.

Greinke is an exceptional talent but he's not a fit for the Red Sox. He's more of a big fish in a small pond guy and has also been known to be a little quirky and standoffish in the clubhouse, something the Red Sox don't need to deal with now that they've gotten rid of public enemy numero uno in Josh Beckett. Greinke is going to command a deal in the 5 to 6 year range at $20 million a year...a price tag the Red Sox don't need to entertain. If I'm Ben Cherington I'm saying thanks but no thanks I'll spend my cake elsewhere.

Unlike their OF situation the Red Sox don't have great arms in the high minors that would be ready to step in early next year but what they do have is the arsenal to swing a trade for someone along the lines of King Felix if Seattle ever made him available. If I'm Ben Cherington I'm knocking on Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik's door every morning checking the status of Felix - who if dealt this offseason would still be under contract for 2 more years. Another possibility that I've heard floated out there is the Red Sox making a run after Cliff Lee. Now Lee is a pitcher that if I were Cherington I would in fact be comfortable paying $20 million a year because he's lights out and has proven that he can pitch anytime anywhere and be effective. The Phillies showed that their willing to deal him when they tried to get the Dodgers to take him off their hands just a few weeks ago but the Dodgers balked at picking up the remaining 3 yrs/$75 million on Lee's deal. That deal jumps up to 3 yrs/$87.5 million if the 4th year of the deal at $25 million isn't picked up and a $12.5 million buyout is activated. Now I wouldn't be comfortable paying him roughly $29 million a year for 3 years but if I the Phillies can be talked down to eating $9 million a year at the price of a higher prospect I would in fact by willing to make that deal. That would give the Red Sox a top of the rotation that consisted of Lee, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Felx Doubront. Pitching wins championships and the Red Sox as currently constructed don't have the pitching to make that happen. If either of these or any other big name guy can be had I'd be willing to part with the requesite pieces even if that included Jacoby Ellsbury.

Speaking of Ellsbury, since 'The Trade' all the chatter has been that the Red Sox can now use that money to lock him up long term. Not so fast Panama Jack. With Scott Boras as his agent the Red Sox would have a hard time engaging Ellsbury in extension talks (see: Fielder, Prince and Milwaukee) any time before his contract is up after next season and if I'm the Red Sox why would I want to extend him when I'm actually not really sure what kind of player he is. Is he the guy who has only played 3 full seasons out of 5 and had never hit more than 9 HR's in a season while being a speed threat or is he the guy who showed flashes of big time power last year and went yard 32 times? If this year's small sample size (50 games) is any indication he appears to sit more in the 10-15 range than the 25-30 range as far as power numbers are concerned. With a speedster like Ellsbury his value jumps from the $10-$15 million/year range to $20+ million/year when his power tool becomes playable. If that power tool he showed in 2011 is a flash in the pan then why commit to it long term when it doesn't actually exist? The Red Sox already signed a light hitting speedy outfielder to a big time long term deal and how'd that work out for them? Let Ellsbury play out the rest of this year see where he falls on the power/average scale (again is he a .321 hitter like last year or the guy who's previous career high was .301?) for the rest of this year and next year. This offseason if the Red Sox can maximize his value and ship him out of town for a big time starting pitcher I'm pressing the YES button. As I stated earlier the Red Sox upper minors are loaded with OF talent.

Ben Cherington swinging the deal of his life has opened up a lot of doors for the Red Sox moving forward and instilled confidence in Red Sox Nation in their new GM. He has the opportunity to peruse the free agent market without any restrictions and he also has the ability to evaluate his young talent at a time when Red Sox Nation has accepted their team isn't going to make the playoffs and was better off being blown up then left as currently constituted. Go ahead, Ben, the world is your oyster but be careful not to miss the mark and lose all that precious freedom you just earned with one fell swoop.

Let me know your thoughts and whether or not you agree or think that I'm way off and the Sox should go get Hamilton, Greinke, and whoever else they can land.


Geoff Jablonski