The State of the Nation is Due For a Trade

The Red Sox officially have someone manning the ship, and even though he isn't the candidate I fully endorse, he is fully capable despite little success in Toronto. Oh yeah, I have yet to give you the best part; he's not Bobby Valentine.

With regards to the compensation they gave up nothing so it's a win. For the people that are of the "no coach is worth any player" school of thought, had Mike Aviles not been the player given to the Blue Jays for Farrell he would have been non-tendered. Mike Aviles is not a starting Major League shortstop. He is an adequate utility player, however you already have a cheaper, faster utility player in Pedro Ciriaco therefore, you obtained the manager that you coveted and a player (who may or may not pan out, it really doesn't matter either way) in David Carpenter for someone that has been replaced on your roster and that you were not going to even extend a contract to, that's called winning a negotiation.

The off season has just begun for Boston but the work is nowhere near complete and before I can look forward we need to rehash the past for just a split second longer.

Back in the winter of 2003 John Henry, Larry Lucchino tried to trade Manny Ramirez for Alex Rodriguez. Here is the 2003 statistics for the two:

At that time just speaking baseball-wise this is as even a trade that you can get. Not only would Alex Rodriguez have been part of the fold but Magglio Ordonez also would have been in a Red Sox uniform. Now why would you want to trade for Alex Rodriguez and the largest contract in baseball at the time, when you have his statistical equal? The answer, marketability. Alex Rodriguez was more marketable, he was even more high profile than Ramirez and when Larry Lucchino and Tom Werner saw that this was possible they jumped at the time to make a bigger profit. (Anyone want to buy a brick?)

Eventually the MLBPA nixed the deal because of the money changing hands and money Rodriguez would have deferred, but since then, the Red Sox have used the same business model. When the television ratings dipped after 2009 and the Red Sox lost to the Angels what did they do? Made a splash in free Agency with John Lackey who was the best pitcher on the open market. When they didn't make the playoffs because of a rash of injuries in 2010 and the end of year ratings dipped again. They signed Carl Crawford and traded for Adrian Gonzalez, for four months they were the best team in baseball despite getting nothing from Crawford and ratings were booming. Then the Collapse, Bobby Valentine and The Trade happened and we're sitting here with a collective thumb right where a thumb usually doesn't go.

Does anyone see the problem with the aforementioned business model? On the surface making a splash to drive team interest when it's waning, which would add buzz/ticket sales/revenue makes all the sense in the world, but a business decision can't take precedent over an actual baseball decision if you want a successful team.

The thing that the Red Sox are seriously lacking heading into 2013 is a middle of the order number 3 hitter. Unless Josh Hamilton will take a 1-2 year deal then I want no part of him. And Justin Upton has all the potential in the world but he is not a sure thing, and it would be hard to give up commodities for anything less than a sure thing. The Red Sox must deal for an impact bat. This is to restore team interest as well as a sound baseball decision.

 It is with this in mind that I suggest the following trade:

Red Sox Trade Felix Doubront, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Bryce Brentz and Allen Webster

to

Minnesota for Joe Mauer , Scott Baker and 40 million dollars

Much like the upcoming election, fiscal responsibility is going to be a very big key going forward with the Red Sox organization. The Twins need controllable young pitching and power in their lineup. Which is why in this case I'd give a Major League ready starter and two very good prospects along for a little more salary flexibility for the future.

Joe Mauer doesn't turn 30 until the start of the next season and is still an elite hitter. I would not acquire him to be the starting catcher. I acquire him to be the starting first baseman and backup catcher and hand the reigns to Ryan Lavarnway. Thinking further, when inter league play comes about you move Ortiz to first, and put Mauer behind the dish.

Looking at his last three years shows us that the injury year in 2011 was the aberration and that he is back to producing at a close to elite level.

In 2012, he was still a top 25 player in terms of generating wins for his team and what the Red Sox need to do more than anything is win baseball games. Forgive me for sounding like a broken record but how do you win games? By scoring runs. How do you score runs, by getting on base and of anyone in baseball with at least 500 plate appearances do you know who had the highest OBP? That would be one Joe Mauer at .416. You look at the FLD numbers and see a -3.9 and while this is not the best way to trend, it was his first year playing first base on a more regular basis and I think will actually improve in 2013.

Haven't convinced you yet? Let's think about the ballpark the Red Sox play in and look at Joe Mauer's career spray numbers:

These numbers represent his career breakout by the field he hit the ball into. Based on the numbers it would not be over-reaching to say that he is a line drive to the opposite field hitter. Anyone see where I'm going with this? Joe Mauer's natural swing is to left field on a line. He hits more fly balls to left as well which in a small left field park is just one more thing to add to Joe Mauer's mystique and I don't think hitting .375 is out of the question.

ISO is a relatively new stat that shows the isolate power league average is approximately .145 so, to left field, in two far more spacious parks he has been damn near Ruth-ian. Is there any better park in baseball for that kind of swing than Fenway Park?

Joe Mauer still has 6 years and 138 million dollars left on his deal which is why you ask for 40 million of salary relief. However, we'll round to 38 million so that we are left with 6 years 100 million which is essentially a 16 and 2/3 million AAV and who wouldn't want Joe Mauer for under 17 million dollars per year for the next 6 years.

Scott Baker is coming off Tommy John surgery and would need to be eased back into a rotation but to have someone like Franklin Morales available as well would make that transition seamless in sort of a rotating number 5 pitcher. He is however one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.

On average he is giving approximately three more wins above a run of the mill pitcher. I'd like to pay careful attention to FIP and xFIP and use the following chart for context.

The Chart is the same for a baseline for both FIP and xFIP. What FIP and xFIP is defined as:

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.

What it shows here is that he was a better than average pitcher for the last three years until he was sidelined with Tommy John and while I'm not usually in the business of having two rehabbing players in Lackey and Baker in the same rotation but I am expecting a big rebound in Lester and Buchholz, and if my last post comes to fruition and the up-trending Jake Peavy is a part of the rotation than there is some margin for error. It is also very important that both Lackey and Baker had started throwing in 2012 and have been on track to be ready for Spring Training.

Joe Mauer has a full no trade clause that he could invoke, so this could be all for naught but giving the Twins two top 10 prospects along with Doubront, and 100 million dollars in salary relief could be just enticing enough for them to consider this deal.

Stay Tuned

Norton



Pitching the Trends

While most of you have switched to Neanderthal, I mean, football mode; Ok I'm sort of there too, baseball is always at the forefront of my mind. And I can't sleep most nights thinking about what the Red Sox need to do to make a respectable team for 2013. As far as I can see it's going to start and end with pitching.

We are not going to look at specific names until the end of the piece so here what we are going to look at:

Here is a little more background on the respective contract/heath situations of each player:

Player A: 15.5 million club option which will most likely be declined and bought out (2MM), therefore will only cost money to obtain. Has made 30+ starts per season for last 8 years, no red flags for health

Player B: 22 million club option which will most likely be declined and bought out (4MM), therefore will only cost money to obtain. Has won a Cy Young Award, first time throwing 200 IP since 2007, One major injury to lat in 2010, no issues with arm.

Player C: 9 million club option which will most likely be picked up, therefore will need to trade prospects and established MLB Players. Has made 30+ starts per season for last 6 years, Only player in comparison to throw 200 + innings in past three seasons, no red flags for health

Player D: 13.75 million guaranteed salary, therefore will need to trade more prospects and established MLB Players due to age. Has made 30+ starts in only three of seven seasons in the MLB. Only eclipsed 200IP once in seven years. Has a history of shoulder inflammation issues.

Obviously knowing if the respective teams pick up the options weigh heavily upon this, looking at the teams financial situation this is my best educated guess as to what happens with the players, so let's assume that all four scenarios happen. Got it? Good.

Now let's digest the first set data as it pertains to the Red Sox:

Players A-C are all roughly the same age and in their prime while Player D is about to enter his prime. Point for Player D.

Leading the most cumulative stats (yellow) is another point for Player D.

Both Players A and C get two points for durability/health and both eclipsing the 600 IP mark which is an average of more than 200IP per year.

The only player to increase IP for the last three years and trend upwards for workload is Player B. Despite having the fewest total innings pitched, he has shown the ability to fully come back from an injury and be the top pitcher in the comparison for 2012. Point for Player B.

One of the major problems of 2012 for the Red Sox was the inability to get out of jams which is why the LOB% (left on base percentage) is such a crucial stat. Although the aggregate LOB% stat goes to Player D the 2012 LOB% champion is Player B and is once again the only player trending upwards in that category.We'll give both Players B and D points.

Fly balls in Fenway Park are definitely something that need to be monitored so a HR/FB ration of 5.47 is incredible and a point for Player D.

For the readers that don't know much about the SABR-side of pitching, FIP and xFIP are defined as this by the wonderful guys at Fangraphs:

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.

 Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is a regressed version of FIP, developed by Dave Studeman from The Hardball Times. It’s calculated in the same way as FIP, except it replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed. This estimate is calculated by taking the league-average home run to fly ball rate (~9-10% depending on the year) and multiplying it by a pitcher’s fly ball rate.

Basically read it the same as you would read an ERA (the lower the better). Players C and D should each get points here.

Last but not least WAR. Player A has generated one full more win than the nearest competitor which really speaks to how solid/consistent he has been the last three years. Point for A. We will also award a point for the best player in the previous year (2012) since this is a "what have you done for me lately" league, which is Player B.

Here's the running tally for hose keeping score at home:

Player A- 3
Player B- 3
Player C- 3
Player D- 5

One more set of information we need to seriously check out before the deliberating is the velocity/pitch trends:

Player D obviously is the hardest thrower here, but he's not getting a point for that because of the down-trending in his FBv (Fastball Velocity) over the past 3 years. This may be due to the shoulder issues that have cropped up over the past couple seasons and is raising a big red flag in my book. This could also be a serious shoulder issue on the horizon this will be a negative on Player D. Player A is also down-trending in velocity probably more so due to his age and natural progression whereas he's never had much of an injury history therefore no negative will be awarded. But players B and C are both trending slightly upwards in Fastball velocity. In fact, both B and C are up almost across the board with all their pitches. We will give Three points for both B and C.

In looking at GB%, LD%, FB% we'll turn once again to our friends at Fangraphs:

Line drives are death to pitchers, while ground balls are the best for a pitcher. In numerical terms, line drives produce 1.26 runs/out, fly balls produce 0.13 R/O, and ground balls produce only 0.05 R/O. Ground ball pitchers generally have grounder rates over 50%, while fly ball pitchers have fly ball rates above (or approaching) 40%.

Player C is going to get a point for GB% given his total body of work and clear uptrend. The unfortunate uptrend in LD% for Player A is a negative point while Player C gets points for trending down in line drives and fly balls.

The HR/FB% is another particularly worrisome stat given the short porch in Left and in immediate Right. Player C loses a point for having a poor to awful rating and although Player D has a spectacular rating the upward trend is worrisome so we'll award half a point. Player B has been most consistent and now that he is fully healthy is more in line with previous years. Point for B.

The SwStr% (Swinging Strike Percentage) speaks volumes towards a pitchers "stuff" and how many pitches thrown are being swung at and missed by the opposition. The down-trending in A and D don't inspire confidence but the up-trending in B and C are both worth a point. It does need to be noted that all four pitchers were above the league average from 2011 for SwStr% which is worth a half point for all.

The last determining factor is that Players A and B will only cost money, Not money AND compensation. Most likely because of the 2012 season Player A will cost less than Player B therefore Player A will be awarded three points and Player B will be awarded two.

Here is how the final tally looks:

Player A- 5
Player B- 10.5
Player C- 7.5
Player D- 4.5

Despite all the charts showing Player B to have the "worst" aggregate stats for the combined three years a deeper look into the numbers actually would show that he is the most qualified and best fit for the Red Sox.

You may be asking yourself, who are these mystery players?

Player A- Dan Haren

Player C- James Shields



Player D- Josh Johnson

Everything is not necessarily cost-prohibitive but I'll call it cost conscious. The problem with how the Red Sox were doing business is they were just trying to buy the best available instead of finding the best fit for the team. That being said I would attempt to work on a 3-4 year deal worth in the neighborhood of 14 million per season with Player B.

And the newest starting pitcher for the Boston Red Sox should be, one, Jake Peavy.

Stay Tuned

Norton