What's Doing on Yawkey Way

There are a lot of questions surrounding the way the Red Sox have been conducting business in this off season entering 2013. To me, its simple, it's about two things, believing in the player development system (past and future) and not over-extending yourself for mediocre players/talent.

Any deal that totals three years or less in duration almost can not be viewed as a bad contract. Do not look at the AAV (average annual value) of the deal because the Red Sox were awarded a 'reset' button last July and have the money to spend. Are they overpaying? Absolutely. However ,coming off a last place finish, two miserable seasons in a row, and three seasons of not reaching October baseball the money has to speak and they have no choice but to overpay for some sort of incentive to come play in Beantown.
Most people are viewing Victorino, the newly signed Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli (if the deal gets completed), Johnny Gomes, and Koji Uehara as secondary talent. You would be correct. This is because they believe in the core of their team, when healthy, is still good. Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Will Middlebrooks, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury are the core of the team as currently constituted. They believe with the right manager at the front of the ship, and projecting players to play closer to their career norms rather than career worsts, they are capable of competing in the AL East. What they think was needed was complimentary players and depth instead of an overhaul and the sudden influx of cash has allowed them to go this route.

You'll notice that of all the players they've been signing, none of them have the stigma of losing compensatory draft picks after signing. This is also important because with those first two rounds they have had players come up through their system such as: Dustin Pedroia (2nd), Jon Lester (2nd), Justin Masterson (2nd), Clay Buchholz (1st), Jacoby Ellsbury (1st); just to name a few. So, they clearly feel that they can evaluate the top-end talent in a draft well. Therefore, you play to your strengths and load up (or not lose) the draft picks in the first couple rounds of the Draft.

The Red Sox have also upgraded their scouting department with the hiring of Eddie Bane as to not have to have the "bridge" years in the future and to re-develop the machine that was so bountiful with talent in the early 2000's. Eddie Bane was the talent evaluator in Anaheim that drafted Mike Trout, Kendrys Morales, Jered Weaver and Mark Trumbo. And before you say it, "what about the old draft busts, Brandon Wood and Dallas McPherson?" Bane was not part of that scouting team that inked those highly touted, but widely busted players, I looked it up.

The Ryan Dempster deal also pleases me because once again they got him for a minuscule two-year deal, it doesn't matter the money and it adds stability (has thrown 200+ innings in four out of the last five years with an average ERA of 3.73) to the back end of the rotation. This comes with a caveat though, if it all possible he needs to be handled with kid gloves when going up against the powerhouse offenses (Texas, Anaheim, Detroit and NYY). Which is why I would go with a pseudo-six-man rotation, and I would use someone like Franklin Morales or Alfredo Aceves as a spot starter so as to not over-expose the soft-throwing Dempster (average 2012 vFA: 89.6mph) to those lineups. If you go by the formula of 1-million dollars per win he should eclipse the 13 win plateau and therefore be worth his contract for the next two years.

While they have already signed Koji Uehara they should still be on the market for a late inning power reliever that could close if necessary. Which is why I think they need to pursue Joel Hanrahan to compete for the closer job. What they need is someone that throws hard and can put people away at the back end of the bullpen because Daniel Bard is not a sure thing right now, and my personal preference is to have power arms anchoring the bullpen.

Although his walk rate is up stockpiling fireballers at the back end of your bullpen is a recipe for success, and Hanrahan has had one of the leagues fastest fastballs for the past few years.

The other thing that the Red Sox are doing right now is putting a huge bunch of faith in their top prospects. There is nothing wrong with that, but it is extremely risky to think that every one of Bogaerts, Brentz, Bradley, Barnes and others are all going to pan out. But it shows that you have faith in the scouting and talent evaluation department which is the way to reload for the future.

These free agent deals are all deals that should serve as the perfect bridge to the next wave of the aforementioned "Killer B's".

Shane Victorino, three year deal. Ellsbury will be leaving at the end of the year (most likely) which gives the Red Sox leverage (can play center field, has speed, could hit lead off if need be) if you want to trade him, and also with Jackie Bradley Jr slotted for a late 2013 to early 2014 call-up the move doesn't block any ones progression unless for some reason they re-sign Ellsbury. There isn't much precedent though for letting a player get all the way through arbitration without signing them to a deal so I wouldn't anticipate them re-signing him at year's end.

Ryan Dempster, two year deal. Barnes will likely not be up with the big club until 2014 at the earliest which also would not impede any player's development.

Stephen Drew, classic Scott Boras one year "Pillow Contract". This should serve as a bridge to Bogaerts, but it also allows you to keep Iglesias in the minors to see if he can actually swing the stick because you still have to be able to hit your body weight in the majors, it doesn't matter how good your glove is. This might also be a sign that they have soured on Iglesias because they don't think he can hit. However he is still just 22 and has room/time to grow. Drew provides more balance to the lineup hitting from the left side, and should at least provide adequate defense.

David Ross, two year deal. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is a lumberjack playing catcher and shouldn't be allowed to put on a chest protector. Ryan Lavarnway whom the Red Sox should turn the reigns over to is still young and would need a veteran mentor catcher to learn from and Ross is as solid as they come defensively. Napoli shouldn't see many games behind the plate as the Red Sox don't have another first baseman that is really capable of playing there. Ross allows the flexibility to move Saltalamacchia, play Napoli solely at first base and play a more prominent role as a backup than most teams number two catchers.

These moves all look trivial right now, but the business model is sound because they have the money for it. I'll let the rest of the off season play out before I reserve judgement on the team but the allocating of funds is not something that I have a problem with, and you shouldn't either.

Stay Tuned

Norton

Sox Sign a First Baseman

Mike Napoli signs with the Red Sox for 3 years, 39 million (13 million per year)

First things first, the Sox are to be commended for being patient with the Mike Napoli signing and sticking to a three year deal instead of going for the fourth year, regardless of the higher AAV (average annual value). Given the current market of players, and the Red Sox financial situation this is the best thing for them to do, over pay for the players they want but do it on their terms with regard to length.

The Red Sox are actually doing intelligent business right now. They are building ridiculous depth given the rash of injuries that have happened the last three years. Not only that they are molding their lineup to fit their ballpark like the Yankees do, what the Red Sox have been lacking the last few years is power from the right side of the box. With a healthy Wil Middlebrooks, Napoli and Johnny Gomes (on a part-time basis) they finally have the thunder they need from that side of the plate.

I don't dislike the Napoli signing, but I think that some of the expectations need to be tempered. Much like with players such as Julio Lugo and Carl Crawford they killed the Red Sox before the became part of the team. Napoli won't be facing the Red Sox lackluster pitching of 2012 this year and will not have a .400 average at Fenway Park.

To me, this move also has a ripple effect, and I think it spells the end of Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Thank God). The Red Sox will not keep four catchers (David Ross, Ryan Lavarnway, Mike Napoli and Saltalamacchia) on the roster. Lavarnway has options left but he really doesn't have anything left to prove in AAA and is cheaper than Saltalamacchia (fiscal responsibility, remember?), Ross was signed to a 2-year deal and Napoli is too similar to Saltalamacchia to have in the same lineup.

Not only were their peripherals nearly identical in HR, R, RBI and WAR, but they are both minus defenders to boot, Napoli moreso than Saltalmacchia at catcher. Napoli however, walks a lot more than Saltalamacchia along with being able to play first base makes him more valuable because of his ability to get on base more and play another position. 2012 was a down year for Napoli in a lot of categories and I actually believe he will have a slightly better year average-wise (probably closer to .250) which will in turn bump up the OBP over .350.

As previously stated the Red Sox are conducting smarter business in structuring their team to fit the ballpark, however they are taking a calculated risk in 2012. The Red Sox have sacrificed defense at 1B and LF in Napoli and Gomes respectively, which is a gamble, but thinking along those lines it would make sense that they sign a plus defender to be in right field, and given the way the market is shaping up, I expect the Red Sox to sign Shane Victorino whom plays a Gold Glove quality right field. Let's look at the three players defensively:

Above is the total number of innings they've played at those positions during their Major League careers and easily what can be deduced is that Gomes is a butcher. But they are hoping that the HR production/Fenway wall will negate how porous he is defensively. Napoli is a slightly below average fielder at first base which means that Middlebrooks is really going to have to work on his throws across the diamond because Gonzalez isn't there to bail him out anymore, but he shouldn't cost many runs over the course of the year. Knowing that Fenway's right field is one of the most difficult in all of baseball to play, they almost have no choice but to go get a defensive stud and Victorino certainly fits that bill, add in the fact that he's a switch hitter with speed, he fits anywhere in the lineup.

Things are finally shaping up in Beantown and the Red Sox are making sound fiscal business decisions. There may be light at the end of this tunnel, and it may not be that long before they find it.

Stay Tuned

Norton