The Lackey Effect

The Red Sox don't have a starting pitcher that is as revered as Kershaw or Hernandez. But what they have in John Lackey this season is better than most and right now, he is the best healthy pitcher the Red Sox have. The healthy part of the Red Sox rotation right now looks as follows:

John Lackey has been the most consistent pitcher for the Red Sox all year and leads the staff in just about all advanced pitching metrics. But the fact that he doesn't lead the team in Wins is no where near indicative of how he has pitched. He has the lowest run support on the team at 3.77 with the other pitchers receiving almost 2 more full runs per game. Just to beat home the point of his lack of run support contributing to his losing record check the infographic below.

This is once again not to slight the season that Scherzer has had, but he gets more run support than any pitcher the Red Sox has and his win-loss record displays that. The Red Sox have been  shutout six times during John Lackey's starts. In baseball terms, we call that "shit luck".

In looking at the pitchFX section on Fangraphs it shows me the following velocity tidbits for John Lackey:

The striking thing is that he is only (on season's average) throwing .1mph harder than he was with a torn UCL in 2011. So what can we attribute this resurgence in John Lackey just looking at his velocity especially if you consider he's throwing his fastball at the same speed?

Look at his secondary pitches, mostly his cutter (more of a slider) they are all slower than his 2011 version which creates more of a speed change to deal with as a hitter. In 2011, his elbow was torn and was most likely over-gripping his pitches to try and create some sort of feel. Now, in 2013, he is throwing pain-free which allows more confidence in snapping off a curve ball harder, yet gripping the ball softer in your hand. (Note: The harder two-seam fastball, also a big weapon, could explain the more than 7% jump in GB% from 2011 to 2013)

This is where I make a proclamation I never thought I would make: John Lackey is potentially your Game 1 starter for the playoffs when (not if) they clinch. 

A healthy Buchholz, for me, is a difference maker in winning the pennant but he doesn't need to start Game 1 of the playoffs and personally I don't want him starting the first game of the playoffs unless he is the pitcher he was at the beginning of the season, not something close to the pitcher, but THE pitcher.

Here are the postseason numbers for each of the starters including Buchholz:

Both Lester and Lackey are "battle-tested" very good pitchers in the playoffs with Lester pitching better despite a smaller sample. Buchholz pitched well in one start in 2008 and Peavy did not pitch well in two starts for San Diego pre-surgery but is now a different pitcher in terms of stuff on a team with a much better offense than his previous foray into October. Doubront has not yet experienced postseason baseball.

There are multiple outcomes for the playoff rotation all of which hinge on how Clay Buchholz pitches down the stretch:

• Buchholz comes back and is just as dominant as he was in April and May then he should be the number one starter because given how much better he was than most other pitchers in the AL not just the Red Sox he gives you the best chance of winning Game 1. (Rotation: Buchholz, Lackey, Lester, Peavy**)
• Buchholz comes back and is not as dominant but is another above average pitcher then he would be slotted in the third spot in the rotation behind Lackey and Lester, in that order. (Rotation: Lackey, Lester, Buchholz, Peavy)
• Buchholz comes back and doesn't have it. This is not far-fetched. He has not pitched at the Major League-level in 3 months and now he's thrust into a pennant race. Despite pitching in the minors, there is a lot of rust to shake off and he may not have it. In which case, you leave Buchholz off the playoff roster entirely.  You are not going to put a player in the bullpen and ask him to pitch high leverage innings with questionable health and/or stuff to get the job done. (Rotation: Lackey, Lester, Peavy, Doubront)

**Why Peavy and not Doubront? Second half performances trend towards Peavy, and you are not trading away a young controllable player in Iglesias to sit Peavy if comparable performances are equal. "Peave" gets the nod. Other moves in the bullpen would be made for L-R balance. 

Winning the game is ultimately the most important thing, however being the winning pitcher isn't. John Lackey has not only earned his spot in the playoff rotation, but atop the rotation is best for all parties.

Stay Tuned,
Norton