Outfield Paying the Bills

Many people are looking for an explanation of how the "gritty", bearded Red Sox are pulling off such an outstanding season when most people, (I'm not most people), wrote them off before the first pitch. I'd say a healthier and more consistent rotation plays the biggest part, but I would say that the Red Sox outfield is the next place to look for an explanation to such a competitive, enthralling season.

Ellsbury and Victorino are two of the top three outfielders in the AL in terms of Wins Above Replacements. Given how remarkable they have been their WAR combined is only 1.2 WAR above Mike Trout aka Jesus Christ in velour pants. Anyway, back to the point, all of the teams that have two outfielders on the list above are very much alive in the playoff race, however The Red Sox have all three of their starting outfielders in the top 16 in the AL as well. (All of the outfielders on the chart qualify for the batting title in terms of PA).

First and foremost the Red Sox have stayed healthy this season. The list above had only 4 teams of the 12 that had 3 outfield candidates that earned enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. However, even without having Mike Trout the Red Sox have had the most productive outfield in the American League. Not including the Angels, because they are the outlier, look (below and to the left) at the next five teams in terms of outfield production: Orioles, Athletics Tigers, Rangers and Yankees. It's not a coincidence that these teams are in the thick of the pennant chases given that they are getting the production they are.

Ellsbury and Victorino have been dynamic at the top of the order. Ellsbury has 20 more stolen bases than his nearest competitor and is statistically the best base runner of all the outfielders that qualify. Not only has he had a very good offensive season with free agency pending, he has been the second best defensive outfielder on this list as well. The foot injury is troubling, but with a 7.5 game lead the Red Sox have the luxury of sitting him out. He played with it and stole bases for a week so I'm not entirely worried about the rest of this season however going into the off season I would have no choice but to bring up another injury when negotiating a deal, and I do think they need to explore a deal. (I'll save that for another post)

Ellsbury defensively, was second only, to Shane Victorino. I predicted that the Red Sox would sign Victorino based on other acquisitions the day before he was signed, and also had spoke about how solid his defense would be in Fenway Park. I however had no idea we would be getting a vintage Evans performance in the largest RF in the Bigs. It also should not go unnoticed that Victorino has done a lot of his damage within the last month almost exclusively batting from the right side even against righties due to lingering hip and hamstring issues. The guy plays hurt and is still effective while playing with nagging injuries. It does not fall by the wayside Shane, I see you, I see you.

(Sidenote: Major League hitters can hit fastballs, from any side of the plate. Michael Young said, "a Major League hitter can time a jet engine." The biggest problem for a switch hitter going from seeing only the opposite arm throwing at him, is breaking pitches going a direction than they are used to. Yet he is continuing to get and mash fastballs. What kind of advanced scouting is happening? I can't be the only person that knows this, right?)

Daniel Nava has gone from relative obscurity to a full-fledged starting outfielder in the major leagues. He ranks 16th in terms of outfield Wins Above Replacement and for a guy that used to be the towel boy at his college baseball team, 1.6 Wins better than Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton and Nick Markakis this year makes all the difference in the world for a team that won 69 games last year. Daniel Nava was an afterthought coming into the season, so much so that Bill James didn't even have him in any projected lineup and had Ryan Kalish projections ahead of his. How many games has Ryan Kalish played at any level this year again? He very well could get Comeback Player of the Year if John Lackey wasn't in the same league.

This is not to belittle the contributions of Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz or any of the infield, but the outfield is far and away the best trio in the American League. It is not a surprise they are leading in run differential along with the best record in the Majors given the production they are receiving from foul pole to foul pole.

Stay Tuned,

Norton