Oakland v Detroit preview

While you patiently await my Red Sox ALDS preview might as well preview the other AL match up.

Peripherals:

Oakland (96-66) won the season series from Detroit (93-69) 4 games to 3. Each team won one-run game.

While most people think the Tigers offense is a juggernaut, the Athletics have actually hit more home runs than the vaunted Motown Nine. The Tigers undoubtedly have the more well-known hitters and certainly have the advantage in batting average on the year, however the rest of the offensive stats are pretty close while leaning towards Detroit. This series should be very close and I expect it to go five games.

Oakland's defense and base running advantage can not be overlooked in this series. The Athletics have more than doubled the Tigers in steals on the year and I expect them to try and run as often as possible especially on Alex Avila and his Saltalamacchian 17% caught stealing percentage.

I will give the edge in overall offense to Detroit but its not a runaway. Base running and Defense give the edge to Oakland. If for some reason these two aspects of the game improve for Detroit or Oakland gets picked off/thrown out a lot, this series will be much shorter than the five games I see it at now.

Difference Makers:

This section we are going to look at the top 4 offensive catalysts for each team vs. the potential starters.

Just looking at Crisp's numbers I will make the educated guess that he will have the biggest impact offensively for the A's in this series followed by Donaldson who seems to be having one of "those years" and actually ended the year .1 WAR better than Miguel Cabrera. let that sink in.

Reddick whom already has numerous holes in his swing would seem to be destined for a rough series, but it's a short series and anyone can string a couple hits together during 5 days.

There are only 2 total career home runs by these four off the starting pitchers they are going to face both surprisingly by Coco Crisp, and despite their home run lead over the Tigers for the year, they have the capability to play small ball which may come into play given that runs may come at a premium in this series.

Cabrera obviously is one of the top 8 offensive players in Major League Baseball history, but his production vs these Oakland starters is impressive despite the relative small sample size. I would expect a ton of intentional walks and "not letting him beat you" out of the Athletics. (Note: Cabrera is not healthy, and although deserves attention, may not be the offensive force he usually is. It goes without saying without him being him this lineup can be pitched to.)

This would make Martinez probably the next bet to have a big series based on track record and history versus the Oakland starters. But each of these 4 has at least one home run against at least one of the pitchers.

Torii Hunter has 10 and 5 strikeouts respectively against Bartolo Colon and Jarrod Parker, he also has been handled well in a small sample size versus AJ Griffin.

Brass Balls:

Sometimes it's about stepping up when the light shines brightest and we need to look at the Postseason track records of the starters of these two series.

The Tigers starters as a whole have done a better job than Oakland in letting runners on base given that every pitchers WHIP is better than even the best WHIP of the Athletics. That should not go unnoticed.

However, I am starting to buy into the school of thought that Verlander can't pitch as well (or is not as good) in the postseason compared to the regular season. Maybe we should call him Peyton Verlander? I digress. His HR/9 goes up .6  and his ERA balloons in the postseason, which in 70 innings is a pretty substantial amount. I will not say that Verlander is a liability but his performance in October has not inspired ANY over-confidence. Sanchez however in 3 starts? Nails.

Griffin and Parker have had very little experience and Gray having none. Parker has had a rough go in 2 starts in the post season and Griffin was average in one start. I have watched 3 starts of Sonny Gray's, all Wins, and he is going to do EXACTLY what Matt Moore did to the Rangers in 2011. The fact that none of the Tigers have faced him only gives him an advantage and unless he turns into a puddle out on the mound, ala Rick Ankiel, I expect him to win his start no matter whom he is up against.

The Pens:

The Athletics have a decided advantage in bullpen. Although most would consider it a big advantage to be leading in GB% outside of Jose Iglesias everyone is below average on defense especially in range which means ground balls trickle through the holes a lot more often than most infield defenses.

If the Athletics can get into the Detroit bullpen they should have a wonderful opportunity against everyone except for Rondon who's 103 mph fastball is a tall task for nine Mike Trout's let alone the Oakland A's. But with Rondon being shut down at the end of the year his availability is still uncertain as of right this moment, along with fellow bullpen arm Phil Coke. This would be a significant disadvantage for the Tigers and one that could make for an early exit. If the starters get knocked around or run up the pitch count after six innings.

At the Helm:

While some may give the managing edge to Leyland because of pedigree I am not. I have watched him on multiple occasions this year run starters back out in the game when they had no reason to be out there, part of it because of a lack of confidence in the bullpen and the other part because he's a crotchety old-time baseball guy and believes his starters are borderline infallible.

I am however not giving the advantage to Bob Melvin either. Melvin has done a wonderful job guiding the A's to 2 consecutive playoff births and Division titles, but I haven't seen anything out of him that blows me away either. This is a Push.

Verdict:

The Tigers virtually eliminated themselves from World Series contention when they got no-hit by the Florida Marlins on the last day of the season. No team that has ever been no-hit in the regular season has ever went on to win the World Series. Science.

I will take Oakland in 5, because I believe that Verlander can be gotten to in the playoffs, for whatever reason, and I'm not sure why. But I can't remember a dominating performance out of him ever when the lights shine brightest. So, if he is pitching games 1 and 5 I'll take the Athletics.

Stay Tuned,

Norton