World Series Preview-dictions

The Red Sox are back in the World Series in a rematch of the 2004 showdown with only 3 familiar faces in the games. The only two players that are still around on both teams are David Ortiz and Yadier Molina whom was a 22 year old rookie during that World Series. The only other hold over is Mike Matheny then catcher, but current manager for St. Louis. Personally I thought the Dodgers were a much better match up for the Red Sox because they have the edge in most aspects of the game. The Cardinals are a mirror image in most ways and this series is going to go the distance.

The Red Sox and Cardinals respectively beat teams that were widely selected to win their leagues pre season. However, The Red Sox and Cardinals both beat Cy Young award winners in their Championship Series' and runs were definitely at a premium for both teams.

Looking at the probably pitching match ups and how each pitcher has fared against the opposition goes as follows:

It is pretty plain to see that that most of these pitchers have not faced any of the other batters more than a handful of times or not at all. This should lead to numerous pitcher's duels throughout the series. Wainwright has never pitched against the Red Sox in his career and the player with the most success against him is Victorino with a .227 batting average, yikes.

As you all know I am an avid ball-washer of Jon Lester and he can and will go pitch for pitch with Wainwright but you're going to see pitching performances in Game 2 and Game 3 by Michael Wacha and John Lackey respectively that will reinvigorate your love for the game of baseball.

While I would certainly consider moving Lackey to Game 2 given that he and Lester have been the best two starters in the playoffs for the Red Sox. Game 3 means you're going in Game 7. Do you want any part of this no-stamina version of Clay Buchholz in a Game 7? Me either. There is also something to be said that keeping Buchholz on a normal rest schedule (4 days) may improve his command for his pitches instead of the longer layoff in between games. John Lackey has shown that a layoff didn't bother him in the ALCS and the way he has controlled his emotions and thrown with conviction exudes confidence going in any game this series. One other thing to take into account is that Lackey and Peavy are better hitters than Buchholz as well. Keeping Buchholz away from doing anything other than the required pitching and fielding motions would seem to be very important.

Michael Wacha however has been the most dominating starter in the post season and has an ERA of 0.43 and 22 strikeouts and 8 hits, in 21 innings pitched. Couple this with the fact that not one player on the Red Sox has ever faced him, if you thought the Detroit pitching staff shut down the Red Sox offense Michael Wacha is going to make Scherzer and Verlander look like "Way Back" Wasdin and Rolando Arrojo.

With a hat tip to Jeff Sullivan over at Fangraphs:

During the regular season Michael Wacha's velocity per pitch looked like this:

Fastball: 93.6 miles per hour
Changeup: 85.9
Curveball: 75.6

Solid for any starter, probably topping out at 95-96 but sitting around 93-94. Now looking at the postseasons numbers:

Fastball: 95.5 miles per hour
Changeup: 88.4
Curveball: 77.3

He has added 2 miles per hour to every pitch making him damn near unhittable living at 95-96 but topping out at 98-99. This has Complete game shut out written all over it in Game 2 (and possibly Game 6) for the Cardinals.

Looking at the overall starting pitching in this series I'm calling Wainwright and Lester a wash. Wacha versus vintage Gibson, I'm taking Wacha right now so he has the advantage in any game he's throwing. Buchholz is a shell of himself right now with no stamina, no velocity, and I almost think you throw him against Wacha and hope he gets lucky so as to not waste Lackey who will assuredly give you a very good start. But giving up 1 run may be like 10 in Game 2. Lackey has faced two guys (Beltran and Holliday) on the Cardinals and they are a combined (0-16). If he shuts down those two players he should win the first game in St. Louis. This match up is also not favorable for Peavy either and I fear he will get lit up in Game 4. Lynn versus Peavy will be a lot like the Fister versus Peavy game in Game 4 of the ALCS.

Starting Rotations: Push

As well as the Red Sox bullpen has pitched this postseason the St. Louis bullpen has been just as dominant. Each team has 3 relievers with 0.00 ERAs. Uehara has a 1.00 and Tazawa has a 1.80. Martinez and Axford have also both been VERY good too with a 2.70.

Two dark horses that I think could play a big role in this series are:

Ryan Dempster: With Buchholz not looking like himself and Peavy almost pre-destined to lay an egg versus the Cardinals, Dempster in long relief needs to pitch well. Dempster's ability to either limit damage or provide length in the bullpen may be huge in making sure the core relievers don't get completely gassed during the series.

Randy Choate: Choate hasn't given up a run in this postseason and he will be the late reliever you see against David Ortiz (3-9 with 3 RBI lifetime). If the Red Sox win this one-on-one it would go a long way to winning the series.

Trevor Rosenthal and Koji Uehara have both been as dominant as you could ask for as closers, with a .71 and .56 WHIP respectively.

Bullpens: Push

The Cardinals lineup is very similar to the Red Sox where it has a few run producers but a lot of role players that come up with timely hits.

Carlos Beltran has the strange ability to morph into Stan Musial once the calendar flips to October. He has 2HR 8BB 12 RBIs in 11 games this postseason and he always seems to be up during the most crucial at bat of the game for the Red Birds. Shutting him down in the series is paramount if the Red Sox want to win.

Going to a National League park is a serious disadvantage both offensively and defensively for the Red Sox whom have to lose one of their biggest power threats in each game. Given that the Cardinals don't have any lefty starters, I would expect Ortiz to play in at least 2 out of 3 in St. Louis.

Allen Craig is coming back which gives them a better option at DH than most NL teams would have going into an American League stadium, but his level of effectiveness remains to be seen given that he has been out a month and a half.

Both teams need to get runs off the starters in order to win, because runs will most likely be hard to come by with the bullpen's pitching the way they have been pitching.

Lineups: Slight advantage Red Sox when at home/Slight advantage Cardinals when at home. Push

In terms of overall team defense or DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) the Red Sox are at +9 for the year while the Cardinals come in at -39.

To put it in perspective, the chart at left shows what the overall defensive numbers would look like for one player. It is obvious that +9 is leaps and bounds better. But positionally the Red Sox are markedly better in CF, RF, 2B and 1B.

The teams are close at 3B, SS and LF. But where the Cardinals have a huge advantage is behind the dish. Yadier Molina, as we have gone through at length here, is the best defensive catcher in baseball. What the Red Sox have done better than any team in baseball this year is run the bases. Stealing bases and putting pressure on other teams by advancing the extra base (See Middlebrooks, Will in Game 5 ALCS) has been a huge part to this teams success.

Yadier Molina is the X-Factor in this series because he is the deterrent of every team's running game. He threw out (20 of 46) 43% of runners this year. The fact that there were only 46 attempts against Molina in 132 games behind the dish speaks volumes.

Here is a video from the NLDS. I have his pop time here at 1.97 seconds. (Time it if you want, as soon as the ball hits his glove to the nanosecond the 2nd baseman touches it) If the pitchers can get the ball to the plate in 1.5 or better (I had Martinez at 1.27), that means that mathematically the Red Sox will have to get to 2nd base faster than 3.24 seconds. That's a tall task for Ellsbury or Berry let alone anyone else. This could be a major problem for the Red Sox because the strongest player on the Cardinals makes the biggest strength for the Red Sox (base running) seemingly non-existent. This should not go unnoticed and should actually be frightening.

The overall team defense advantage goes decidedly to the Red Sox, but the caliber of defense that Yadier Molina plays is that of vintage Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez and you won't see many catchers that are as defensively gifted in any era in the history of the game.

Advantage: Red Sox

This managerial face off is also just as close as every other aspect of this series. Both managers in my opinion (outside of the Franklin Morales decision, seriously Farrell, you were just trolling us right?) have worked their pitching staffs brilliantly in the playoffs. Pulling the right strings at the right times leading to victories that other managers *Cough Don Mattingly Cough* just aren't mentally capable of accomplishing.

They have been swift and deliberate with taking the starters out of the games, and virtually both everything that they have touched has turned to gold. However two things to be aware of for each manager:

Farrell: He's going to stick with Drew. Get over it. There are only right-handed starters for St. Louis, and he is an above average defensive shortstop. That being said, he needs to be prepared to hit for him in this series in the later innings if this slump continues. Not only does he need to be prepared to hit for him, but Bogaerts needs to be moved to 7 in the order while in the NL stadium. Bogaerts is making more contact than Drew and putting Bogaerts in the 8 hole will negate his bat because the 8 hole gets pitched around in the National League in order to face the pitcher. Also Drew getting on base via IBB will be a welcome site compared to the lonely walk back to the dugout every time up at bat.

Matheny: Matheny needs to find a way to put pressure on both Saltalmacchia and Bogaerts. Without being reckless he needs to steal all day on Saltalamacchia simply because he can be stolen on. I am not an advocate of bunting to sacrifice outs but Bogaerts hasn't had many slow rollers at third base and testing him early in the series is something that should be explored. A natural shortstop has the range but it's a different angle to play and may be able to be exploited.

Manager: Push 

These teams are so evenly-matched. They both went 97-65 in the regular season. They have good starting pitching, lock down bullpens, adept at grinding out at bats and mangers that are decisive with sound reasoning for their moves and I expect this to be a World Series that people talk about for a long time. 

I'm taking the Red Sox in 7 games but the Cardinals are not to be over-looked. This is a very good team that can beat the Red Sox and is a much more difficult match up than the Detroit Tigers or the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Stay Tuned

Norton