Sox Take Great First Step but Be Careful Not To Fall on Your Face With the Second

As my esteemed colleague wrote about and broke down piece by piece earlier today, here's VfC's own Ryan Norton's breakdown - read it now, the Red Sox and Dodgers pulled off a doozy of a trade at the most unlikely of times. I'm not here to breakdown the deal that sent Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto, and all of their bad contracts (expect you, Punto) to the Dodgers for Chavez Ravine's tenants top 2 pitching prospects, starting 1b, and some mid level prospects. What am I going to write about however is how yes it was a great step forward by the Red Sox after what has been an abysmal calendar year seeing them possess the 3rd WORST record in the AL over that time frame but that the Red Sox need to be careful not to fall flat on their faces this offseason/early next year.

By finding a taker for Josh Beckett's final 2 years, Carl Crawford's next 5 years, and Adrian Gonzalez's remaining 6 years the Red Sox were able to unload approximately $260 million in contracts. It did leave the team with a hole at first base but the ability to rid themselves of Crawford's albatross was well worth the price of losing Gonzalez and add Beckett's departure to the mix and you've got yourself a damn good deal. As for what's coming the Red Sox way it's incredible to me that there are ZERO BAD CONTRACTS coming back at them after unloading 3 megadeals. The only major league player the Red Sox received was the light hitting James Loney who's contract is up after this year anyway. The 2 pitching prospects the Sox managed to haggle from the Dodgers both have top of the rotation upside with Rubby De La Rosa possessing a top fastball and top of the rotation secondary stuff but a questionable ability to harness all his talent and he did have Tommy John Surgery recently but he looks good so far getting an appearance with the Dodgers in the past week. Allen Webster is also a top tier talent with a hard sinker that's been compared favorably to Derek Lowe's - not a bad thing at all.

Now that between myself and Ryan we have beaten this deals components to death it's time to look at what's next for the Red Sox moving forward and so far I don't like some of the ideas I'm hearing floated.

This offseason the Red Sox are going to have a ton of money to play with but by no means do I think that they need to get antsy and repeat history by throwing that money away on players who don't fit the long term plan that GM Ben Cherington has laid out in his mind. With this trade the Red Sox have the ability to look themselves in the mirror and honestly assess the young talent they have in their system currently and determine whether or not they're comfortable where they stand. The number one name I'm hearing Red Sox fans throw around is Josh Hamilton and how they believe the Sox should go after him once he finishes out his current contract with the Texas Rangers.

Now I agree that Hamilton is an absolute force to be reckoned with but there's a reason that the Rangers are allowing him to play out this year at 31 before deciding whether or not to engage in talks in what will be a contract in the 6 to 8 year range at $20+ million annually. Hamilton is a 31 year old in his 6th major league season and in only 1 of those years has he played more than 133 games (156 in 2008 at 27). His history of drug addiction is also a red flag as he had a relapse last offseason and it's not quite known exactly how much damage he did to his body through his persistent drug abuse early in his career and if I'm the Red Sox I don't think that's a risk I'm willing to take especially after taking a similar risk with Carl Crawford just two years earlier. The Red Sox also have a lot of OF options in their minor league system highlighted by Jackie Bradley, Jr., Bryce Brentz, Ryan Kalish, and Che-Hsuan Lin. I'd prefer to give one of those guys the opportunity to seize a starting OF job at Fenway over locking yourself into 6 years of a player who will deliver serious bang for the buck in the first 2 or 3 years but will inevitably fade in his 35-37 year old seasons.

The deficiency I believe the Red Sox truly need to address this offseason is their starting pitching and I don't think that this winters number one free agent Zack Greinke is an option. Greinke is a classic small to mid level market pitcher who doesn't appear to have any intention of playing in any of baseball's pressure cookers and doesn't have the makeup to handle it. Greinke is a stud when he's playing in front of small crowds as evidence by his Cy Young Award for Kansas City in 2009 and his success for the Brewers the previous season and a half. Since being dealt to the LA Angels in July of this year however he's struggled mightily going 2-2 with a 5.22 ERA in 6 starts and allowing 43 hits in 39.2 IP.

Greinke is an exceptional talent but he's not a fit for the Red Sox. He's more of a big fish in a small pond guy and has also been known to be a little quirky and standoffish in the clubhouse, something the Red Sox don't need to deal with now that they've gotten rid of public enemy numero uno in Josh Beckett. Greinke is going to command a deal in the 5 to 6 year range at $20 million a year...a price tag the Red Sox don't need to entertain. If I'm Ben Cherington I'm saying thanks but no thanks I'll spend my cake elsewhere.

Unlike their OF situation the Red Sox don't have great arms in the high minors that would be ready to step in early next year but what they do have is the arsenal to swing a trade for someone along the lines of King Felix if Seattle ever made him available. If I'm Ben Cherington I'm knocking on Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik's door every morning checking the status of Felix - who if dealt this offseason would still be under contract for 2 more years. Another possibility that I've heard floated out there is the Red Sox making a run after Cliff Lee. Now Lee is a pitcher that if I were Cherington I would in fact be comfortable paying $20 million a year because he's lights out and has proven that he can pitch anytime anywhere and be effective. The Phillies showed that their willing to deal him when they tried to get the Dodgers to take him off their hands just a few weeks ago but the Dodgers balked at picking up the remaining 3 yrs/$75 million on Lee's deal. That deal jumps up to 3 yrs/$87.5 million if the 4th year of the deal at $25 million isn't picked up and a $12.5 million buyout is activated. Now I wouldn't be comfortable paying him roughly $29 million a year for 3 years but if I the Phillies can be talked down to eating $9 million a year at the price of a higher prospect I would in fact by willing to make that deal. That would give the Red Sox a top of the rotation that consisted of Lee, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Felx Doubront. Pitching wins championships and the Red Sox as currently constructed don't have the pitching to make that happen. If either of these or any other big name guy can be had I'd be willing to part with the requesite pieces even if that included Jacoby Ellsbury.

Speaking of Ellsbury, since 'The Trade' all the chatter has been that the Red Sox can now use that money to lock him up long term. Not so fast Panama Jack. With Scott Boras as his agent the Red Sox would have a hard time engaging Ellsbury in extension talks (see: Fielder, Prince and Milwaukee) any time before his contract is up after next season and if I'm the Red Sox why would I want to extend him when I'm actually not really sure what kind of player he is. Is he the guy who has only played 3 full seasons out of 5 and had never hit more than 9 HR's in a season while being a speed threat or is he the guy who showed flashes of big time power last year and went yard 32 times? If this year's small sample size (50 games) is any indication he appears to sit more in the 10-15 range than the 25-30 range as far as power numbers are concerned. With a speedster like Ellsbury his value jumps from the $10-$15 million/year range to $20+ million/year when his power tool becomes playable. If that power tool he showed in 2011 is a flash in the pan then why commit to it long term when it doesn't actually exist? The Red Sox already signed a light hitting speedy outfielder to a big time long term deal and how'd that work out for them? Let Ellsbury play out the rest of this year see where he falls on the power/average scale (again is he a .321 hitter like last year or the guy who's previous career high was .301?) for the rest of this year and next year. This offseason if the Red Sox can maximize his value and ship him out of town for a big time starting pitcher I'm pressing the YES button. As I stated earlier the Red Sox upper minors are loaded with OF talent.

Ben Cherington swinging the deal of his life has opened up a lot of doors for the Red Sox moving forward and instilled confidence in Red Sox Nation in their new GM. He has the opportunity to peruse the free agent market without any restrictions and he also has the ability to evaluate his young talent at a time when Red Sox Nation has accepted their team isn't going to make the playoffs and was better off being blown up then left as currently constituted. Go ahead, Ben, the world is your oyster but be careful not to miss the mark and lose all that precious freedom you just earned with one fell swoop.

Let me know your thoughts and whether or not you agree or think that I'm way off and the Sox should go get Hamilton, Greinke, and whoever else they can land.


Geoff Jablonski

These Sox Can't Get Started

Two teams, 17 innings, Baltimore 9 Boston 6 with the pitchers of record being two position players. Chris Davis of the Orioles threw 2 shutout innings to grab the first win for an AL position player since 1968. For the Red Sox Darnell McDonald got hung with the loss and saw his ERA balloon to 27.00 after giving up a 3 run homer to Adam 'not PAC-man' Jones. After wading thru 17 innings to polish off a 1-5 homestand against perpetual AL doormats Oakland and Baltimore the Red Sox Achilles heel has openly shown itself. That weak link in the chain is Red Sox starting staff. They ultimately will be the ones who determine the fate of John Henry's latest Beantown Bunch.

This isn't news to most Red Sox fans seeing that before the season most of the teams question marks were located in the team's bullpen and starting staff. I thought that Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Clay Buchholz would provide stability at the top with Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront providing great potential in the 4 and 5 slots. The bullpen was in semi disarray at the start of the year after Andrew Bailey's injury and Alfredo Aceves shaky introduction into the closers role but in the past few weeks the back end of the pen has really solidified itself. The starting rotation on the other hand, which I thought would be a strength based on Beckett and Buchholz having strong bounce seasons has actually been God awful.

The Red Sox stand at 11-16 in the basement of the AL East. Their defense hasn't been the problem (outside of a few miscues by saltalamacchia) their offense hasn't been the problem (Ortiz has made up for Youkilis sucking and A Gonz power outage) but rather it's been the teams starting 5. It's gotten to the point where when I watch a game I'm shocked to see one of the Sox starters even start the 7th inning. I'm openly jealous of almost every other teams starting rotations being able to work deep into games effectively instead of doing it Clay Buchholz style where you pitch 7 innings and give up 7 runs.

Speaking of Clay Buchholz, the Red Sox #3 starter who is currently sporting an ERA north of 9.00, I think I've found the perfect solution for him. Instead of letting him try to work out his command issues in the big leagues and taxing the bullpen in the process I say utilize the fact that he still has options left and let him take the Cliff Lee route of ironing out his problems in AAA before coming back to the show. Cliff Lee spent the beginning of the 2007 season ironing out his issues only to find himself as one of baseballs best a year later. It can work. Give Buchholz a chance to find himself in a pressure free environment get him righted and back to where he was before he broke his back. Then he can truly be the Red Sox #3 starter and help lead them to the playoffs, hopefully.

Their team ERA currently is better than only the Minnesota 'we suck some awful' Twins coming in at a calm cool 5.36. They have 1 complete game and 1 shoutout to go with a 1.47 WHIP and .272 BAA. Most of these numbers are being inflated by the poor starting pitching the team is receiving. We've already been over the terrible awful that has been Clay Buchholz but he's been joined in misery by supposed ace Jon Lester who's 1-2 with a 4.62 ERA. Those numbers are pretty damn far off where I thought he would be checking in on May 7th just check my fantasy draft where I made him the ace of my staff. Lester's problems though seem to be quite fixable. The biggest problem he's been running into is falling back into his old habit of letting walks came back to bite him in the ass in the form of a long drawn out inning that jacks up his pitch count. His last two starts however after getting absolutely shellacked by the Rangers have been right on track, 7 IP 0 R 1 BB 7 SO against the White Sox and 6 IP 3 R 3 BB 2 SO against the Orioles. I like his odds of getting back into All Star shape.

My main issue with Josh Beckett is that he isn't the gamer everyone thought he was after the 2007 regular season and postseason. In that year Beckett single handedly made sure that the Red Sox were going to win the 2007 World Series but other than 2009 he's been altogether a disappointment. Beckett made 30 starts last year but as everyone knows quite well he wasn't around in late August and September while the team was collapsing he was too busy getting hammed on brewskis in the clubhouse. This year, outside of that gross first start in Detroit, Beckett had actually been the Red Sox best starter logging 4 straight quality starts but then, shocker, injury struck again in the form of a 122 pitch outing against the Chicago White Sox. After the start Beckett said he needed to be skipped next turn due to general soreness. That start that he needed to take off was made by Aaron Cook who got lit for 7 runs in just over 2 innings a game that the Red Sox lost to the Orioles. Beckett is talented there's no doubting that but when his team needs him the most he has a tendency to get injured or fade into the background. As of today he has been cleared to start Thursday against the Cleveland Indians and hopefully he's able to provide a quality start and get the team a much needed W.

Rookie LHP Felix Doubront is just that, a rookie. He throws too many pitches and gets himself into far too many jams but all in all he's been about as good as you can hope for at the back end of a rotation. He gives you 5 to 6 innings and tends to give up 3 or less runs. He hasn't been spectacular mostly thanks to high pitch counts and long innings that force him out of the game before he truly should be getting the hook but with time he'll learn to be more efficient. Right now the Red Sox need longer outings out of him but I don't know if this is the right place to be looking. Like I said just a sentence ago  he's far too inefficient right now to consistently work deep into ballgames and give the bullpen a day of rest.

That brings us to the Sox #5 starter and probably the one with the highest ceiling, Daniel Bard. Bard, much like Doubront, has given the Sox exactly what they must have expected he was moved from back end of the bullpen to the starting rotation. He has been keeping the ball in the ballpark, surrendering only 1 home run so far, and other than a start against Tampa when he walked 7 guys he's been keeping the free passes to a minimum. The biggest problem for him has been that he isn't stretched out enough yet to go more than 7 innings at the maximum. He's only worked 7 innings once and hasn't gotten out of the 6th on two other occasions out of 4 starts. His stuff has been top notch but, and the Sox can't pretend to be shocked by this, he hasn't been dominant in the starting rotation like he was at the back end of the bullpen. I get why they moved him to the starting rotation it makes sense to have your best pitchers pitch more innings but that comes with growing pains and at a time when the Red Sox starting rotation is in shambles they need someone to carry the load for a start or two and throw a complete game or two Roy Halladay style.

The best solution for the Red Sox is for these 5 guys to get themselves straightened out and that's up to Bob McClure to find the proper solutions. There are no outside solutions that I would endorse for the Red Sox considering the dearth of talent at the top of the farm system as is. As far as Buchholz is concerned I've stated that I think the best solution is some time to right himself away from the bright lights but as far as the others are concerned they'll have to work their problems out up in the Big Leagues. Red Sox Nation needs the Sox starters to go deeper into games and provide the team with innings it desperately needs. Like it or not Red Sox fans this season might not go as originally planned and you can blame the Sox starting 5 for that but unless the 5 individuals mentioned above can correct themselves. There is a legitimate chance we're looking at a year of misery in the Fens. As a fan I can't go through another year where the Red Sox finish dead last in quality starts even behind the terrible starting rotations thrown out there by the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros of the world. It's time for the Sox starting rotation to step up and shit or get off the pot.

Geoff Jablonski