2013-2014 Pats Positional Primer: Part 1

How's that for alliteration?

Football season is upon us ladies and gentlemen! The Patriots played their final preseason game tonight and will trim the last fat off of a roster that, in some ways, is much improved over last season. They lost some key players and have made some nice additions to their team that will, in the long term, reap great benefits. Let's take a look at the offensive side of the ball as there were some extremely interesting and controversial signings there.

The average Pats fan will hem and haw, repeatedly about the loss of Wes Welker and how it was a terrible move for the franchise. "Why the hell did they let Welkah, go? I swayah that Belichick is frickin' retahded sometimes." I assure you that's not the case. If Welker's replacement, Danny Amendola, can stay healthy, he will be better than Wes in a lot of ways. He's 27 years old which is 5 years younger than the former slot receiver. He's not listed as being taller than Welker but when you see him on the field, he definitely looks substantially larger in stature than the diminutive #83. He's faster. You can see that he hits his top end speed much quicker than Welker ever did coming out of cuts. He's more elusive than Welker. Hell, as it stands right now he even has better hands than the former Pats receiver as Welker had the sixth most dropped passes in the NFL last season with 9. It's silly to think that Brady and Amendola will have the amazing rapport that Welker and Brady shared right out of the gate but, over time, that may be exactly what they share. It remains to be seen whether or not Danny can stay healthy for an entire NFL season though. Amendola carries the stigma of being a injury prone player but I tend to think that's a little exaggerated considering the freakishness of his injury last season. Danny was forced to have season ending clavicle surgery last season after breaking it in a game and having the clavicle pop inward instead of outward which caused it to come within millimeters of puncturing his trachea and aorta. The jury is still out as we move into the final week of the preseason but if all things go as we hope they will, Amendola will be a huge contributor right out of the gate as the Patriots number 1 receiving target.

You may have heard, and if you haven't then I may ask if you've been living under a rock all summer, that the Patriots signed quarterback Tim Tebow this off season. So many people make a huge deal over this signing because of who he is and the media circus that he brings to the team. In reality, he's nothing more than a third string quarterback who will never see any time on the field this season. No, they aren't going to create a separate playbook to incorporate him into the offense. For all you people that think they are going to draw up trick plays for him and he's going to see some time on the field. That's just not going to happen. The Pats aren't going to waste valuable practice time, and take time away from Brady's preparation, so they can work this guy into the offense. At MOST, he'll help the team in practice prepare for scrambling quarterbacks when they have one coming up on the schedule. He'll sit on the bench, probably pray a couple times a game and get way more camera time than he deserves. I'm not by any means a Tebow apologist as I think that there are probably 20 or more free agent quarterbacks that could come in right now and be a more productive backup than him. Who knows, this may be one of those pride moves for Belichick where he wants to prove he can make something of a man that nobody else could. I just don't think it's worth crucifying (see what I did there?) Belichick over. If I've learned anything over the years, it's that I trust the man in charge. (Note that as I write this, there is a very good chance that Tebow could be cut before the season begins next Sunday)

As we're coming out of preseason I've been thinking about who the key contributors at every position will be and what the depth charts will look like heading in to the season. Offensively this is how I see things shaking out.

Quarterback: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallet, Tim Tebow
Tom Brady is Tom Brady. The guy is coming off of one of his best seasons he's ever had throwing for 4,827 yards, 34 touchdowns and a sterling 8 interceptions. The guy is like a fine wine. He get's better with age. This season will certainly have a learning curve in the early stages with all the new faces Tom will be throwing to but once they get some games under their belt, expect much of the same from Brady and the Pats. If we've learned anything from him in the past, Tom Brady makes it work regardless of who he is throwing the ball to and in most cases, he makes the players he's throwing to look like All-Pros. This is a make or break season for Ryan Mallet. He's not going to get many glimpses of game action unless, God forbid, Brady goes down for some reason, so it'll be hard to evaluate exactly how the 3rd year backup has progressed. He has been mentioned by many media outlets as a guy that could be traded for by a team that needs a starting quarterback and I'm not exactly sure he proved he can come in a be that guy for a team.
Brady projected stat line: 4,650 yds, 38 TDs, 10 INT
Mallet projected stat line: Let's hope he doesn't have one

Offensive line: LT Nate Solder, LG Logan Mankins, C Ryan Wendell, RG Dan Connolly, RT Sebastian Vollmer
Not much has changed here. Third year man Nate Solder is protecting Brady's blindside for a second straight season. You didn't hear a whole lot about him last year and I guess that's a good thing considering it means he wasn't doing anything wrong. He was sound and athletic on the edge, and much improved from his rookie season. He'll look to build on that this year. Mankins is the quintessential guard. An absolute mauler who loves nothing more than smashing the face of the defender in front of him. He's the unquestioned leader of this line and provides excellent pass and run support. An important cog in this offensive line is Vollmer. When he's healthy, he's one of the best right tackles in the NFL, but he seems to be one of those guys who always contracts a nagging injury that keeps him out way longer than you think it should. If this line can stay healthy, it will continue the trend of being one of the top 5 offensive lines in the NFL.

Running backs: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, LeGarrette Blount, Leon Washington, Brandon Bolden
Ridley is entering his third NFL season and his second as the feature back of this offense. He broke out last season amassing 1,263 rushing yards, 18 total touchdowns and a 4.4 yards per carry average. He's not overly flashy but he proved last year he's someone whom you can give the ball to consistently between the tackles on first and second down and will take care of the football. Shane Vereen is one of my key players to watch this year. Danny Woodhead was shown the door in free agency as he bolted to the Chargers and Vereen will fill his spot as the third down, pass catching back seamlessly. Vereen has the skillset to be a weapon out of the backfield and make you forget Danny Woodhead was even a human. Vereen has exceptional hands and top end speed making him a huge asset in the passing game and a player that Brady will look to often. Blount adds an interesting wrinkle into the Pats running game as he's something they haven't really had in the past few seasons; a real power back. Blount is a monster of a running back and hardly ever gets taken down by the first tackler. He'll be used in short yardage and goal line situations and should be a very useful runner out of the backfield. Washington has the reputation as one of the best kick returners in the NFL and that's mostly where you'll see him used, but don't be surprised if you also see him catching some passes out of the backfield and spelling Shane Vereen.
Ridley projected stat line: 1,215 yds, 10 rushing TDs, 3 receiving TDs 4.6 yards per carry.
Vereen projected stat line: 425 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, 410 receiving yards, 4 receiving TDs
Blount projected stat line: 360 yds, 6 TDs

Wide receivers: Danny Amendola, Kenbrell Thompkins, Julian Edelman, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Matthew Slater
Danny Amendola is going to be the key guy here. As I stated above he is going to be Welker's replacement and even more because I've heard that he'll be lining up a lot outside of the numbers as well as inside, which brings more versatility to his role. He's sure handed and from all accounts a fast learner so I expect him to have a huge season as the Patriots go-to wideout. Rookie Kenbrell Thompkins is a fantastic story. Kenbrell is a former juvenile delinquent and drug dealer who decided to clean his act up, go to the University of Cincinatti and take this football thing seriously. Signed as an undrafted rookie, the six foot receiver has burst on to the scene impressing the coaching staff and hurdling over several other rookies who looked to be ahead of him going into training camp. He's quickly earned the trust of Tom Brady and has had some great games and flashes in the preaseason which lead me to believe he'll be the wide receiver lining up on the outside opposite Danny Amendola. Julian Edelman will see a huge amount of time in the slot and be the shifty, run after the catch receiver we've seen him be in the past. Injury is something Edelman has to avoid this year as Brady will be depending on him more heavily now, than in years past. Aaron Dobson, the Patriots second round draft pick is a 6'3, 210 lb specimen at the wide receiver spot. He has freakish hands and leaping ability that will undoubtedly make for some highlight reel catches this year, much like this one from his senior year at Marshall: "The Catch". He could very well finish this season as the second or third best wide receiver on the team. Josh Boyce is a strong, compact rookie wideout from TCU who can come in and do some special things in this offense. He provides the team something they have lacked in recent years, a guy with 4.30 speed that can get down the field. I expect him to be utilized on a lot of deep routes, and screen passes as he can be dangerous after the catch in the open field.
Amendola projected stat line: 89 rec, 1,100 yds, 6 TDs
Kenbrell Thompkins: 56 rec, 840 yds, 5 TD
Julian Edelman: 50 rec, 660 yds, 3 TD
Aaron Dobson: 40 rec, 520 yds, 4 TD
Josh Boyce: 35 rec, 410 yds, 3 TD

Tight Ends: Rob Gronkowski, Jake Ballard, Zach Sudfeld
The legend of Gronk continues on to another season. Unfortunately this season it begins with Gronk sidelined as he recovers from a broken wrist and offseason back surgery. When he returns, you should expect him to quickly take back his role as the best tight end in all of football. Maybe not right away, but the man is a freak of nature and I wouldn't put anything past him. To start the season, you'll see a lot of Jake Ballard and Zach Sudfeld. Ballard was an up and coming TE for the Giants before tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl against the Patriots which put an abrupt halt to his development. He has good hands an athleticism for a guy that stands at 6'7 and is also proficient in the blocking game. Sudfeld is a very interesting prospect. From what I've seen so far he has a lot of the unteachable tools that Gronk has on the field. He's extremely athletic and adjusts very well in the air to make difficult catches look easy. Also, much like Gronk, he is very strong in the blocking game and will be a huge contributor in that area of the game as that's one of the best ways to get on Belichick's good side.
Gronkowski projected stat line: 50 rec, 700 yds, 5 TD
Ballard projected stat line: 30 rec, 290 yds, 2 TD
Zach Sudfeld: 30 rec, 350 yds, 3 TD

If all goes according to plan, and it rarely does, that's how I see it playing out. Obviously injuries, cuts, and whatnot will follow this final preseason game but I think this offense, while slightly young and inexperienced, has the potential to do some special things. It may take them a couple weeks to get into the full swing of things, but I would expect them to be the same high octane offense they usually are and put up 30+ points a game. They could possibly be a little more run oriented than we've seen in the past as they have a pretty special stable of running backs, but overall this offense will be a force to be reckoned with.

Keep your eyes peeled for my next piece where I take a look at the defensive side of the ball and what you should expect from your beloved Patriots in that area.

Be well.

-ZHawk

Super Bowl XLVI Primer: Patriots vs. Giants

Hey you! It's been a while!

For those of you that follow professional tackle football, and more so for those of you that don't, there is a pretty big game going down on Sunday. The New England Patriots square off against the New York football Giants in Super Bowl XLVI in a clash of two great offenses and two mediocre defenses. The Patriots are looking to avenge their loss in the 2007 Super Bowl in which they fell to the Giants ending their bid at a perfect season. You can bet that loss is still fresh in the great minds of Brady and Belichick and they have been game planning to make sure history does not repeat itself. The Giants are looking to do the same thing they did in 2007 and upset the favored Patriots and win their 2nd title in 4 years. Although these teams did meet just 4 seasons ago, they are in no way the same teams. The Giants return 15 players from that game while the Pats return just seven. The Giants defense is much weaker as is the Patriots. Patriots offense is just as dynamic, but is executed with a much more intermediate passing game and throws between the numbers rather than the high octane historic offense of '07. Giants offense is much improved since '07 as well. Eli Manning is coming off of his best season yet and is making his best case for you to consider his name when you mention the best QBs in the NFL. If you are a NFL die-hard, you may know much of what I am telling you and going to tell you. If not, then I hope I inform you the best way I can about what could possibly be the biggest Super Bowl in NFL history.

Offensive outlook and predictions:

Patriots:

Tom Brady is coming off the second best season of his illustrious career in the NFL and is poised to earn his 4th championship ring. Brady threw for 5,235 yards this season, breaking 'Thunder' Dan Marino's NFL record 5,084, he also threw for 39 touchdowns and had a 105.6 passer rating. In simple terms, he wasn't exactly bad. He slings it around to a great group of receivers headlined by Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. Welker historically torches the Giants in his career so look for him to have a big game on Sunday. Gronk is a serious question mark on the other hand and has many Patriots fans biting their nails wondering if he will be recovered from a high ankle sprain that he suffered in last weeks win over the Baltimore Ravens. Aaron Hernandez is another key part to this offense and has taken on multiple roles as of late for the Pats. Hernandez is superb in the open field so Belichick looks to get him the ball in a multitude of ways, screen passes, handoffs, short throws and deep throws, Hernandez does it all. With Gronk ailing look for Aaron to have a big game across the middle.

I expect the Patriots to give the Giants a steady dose of the run to set up the pass, look for 'The Law Firm', sure handed Benjarvus Green-Ellis to hammer the ball up the middle and cut back runner Stevan Ridley to have an impact in this one. I have a sneaky suspicion that some plays are being drawn up for oft-maligned wideout Chad Ochocinco for this game. Although its been his a tumultuous season for the receiver, I feel like this game can't be played without Ocho getting on the field, Bill Belichick likes him too much. He's been through too much in his career and been too much of a team player to not get on the field in his first and possibly only Super Bowl, and you can bet that he'll be targeted AT LEAST 2-3 times because of the Giants game planning for the other big names. The Patriots offensive line is going to determine the outcome of this game, I fully believe that. If they can give Brady time in the pocket the Patriots will easily win this game. If not, well, all bets are off.

Notable Stat Predictions:

Tom Brady: 23-35 345 yards 3 TD 1 INT

Wes Welker: 13 catches 145 yards 1 TD

Aaron Hernandez: 8 catches 112 yards

Rob Gronkowski: 6 catches 56 yards 1 TD

Chad Ochocinco: 2 catches 37 yards 1 TD

Benjarvus Green-Ellis: 17 carries 83 yards 1 TD

Giants:

Can't lie here. As much as it hurts to say it, Eli Manning has been great this season. He was one of the constants on an up and down Giants team this season, he kept them pushing forward when things were looking bleak. He also may have officially taken the "Comeback Kid" moniker away from Tom Brady. Manning has been elite in the fourth quarter this season leading the NFL in fourth quarter touchdowns. Eli has his fantastic receiving core to thank for his season. Strong bodied Hakeem Nicks, paired with elusive, sure-handed Victor Cruz is definitely a troubling match up for the Pats defense which was ranked last in passing yardage this season. Add in Mario Manningham and the Pats will surely have their hands full while defending the pass.

The Giants tout a running game consisting of Ahmad Bradshaw and 6'4 bruising back Brandon Jacobs. The Giants are primarily known as a run first team and are usually pretty successful at doing so, but I can't see that happening on Super Bowl sunday. The Patriots haven't been ran over this season at all except for one game where Fred Jackson had over 100 yards. Bradshaw isn't very fast or shifty and Jacobs is slower now than ever and isn't what he used to be. Like the Patriots, the Giants will run to set up the play action pass and open up the offense. The Giants do tend to go deeper down the field than the Patriots do though, so look for some deep balls to Nicks and Manningham.

Notable stat predictions:

Eli Manning: 27-43 321 yards 2 TD 2 INT

Victor Cruz: 10 catches 119 yards

Hakeem Nicks: 6 catches 88 yards 1 TD

Mario Mannnigham: 4 catches 45 yards

Jake Ballard: 2 catches 21 yards 1 TD

Ahmad Bradshaw: 19 carries 68 yards 1 TD

Defensive outlook:

Patriots:

The Pats D has been referred to as many things this season. None of them are good. The thing they have been called the most though is 'the worst defense of all time'. That's a little harsh though and kind of unfair to this team in my opinion. The Patriots gave up the second most yards per game in the NFL this season, but that stat got padded so much by them going into a prevent defense at the end of games because they were up by so much. That's when guys like Dan Orlovsky and Matt Moore racked up a good chunk of yardage. It's not like the Patriots were getting tossed on for all 4 quarters, their record would have been nowhere near as good if that were the case. Another underrated stat is that the Pats only give up 21.4 points per game this year which is good for 15th in the league. Not the greatest, but nowhere near the worst of all time.

The Patriots D is headlined by Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Patrick Chung and Brandon Spikes. Vince Wilfork will almost undoubtedly be a force in this game. He was a beast in the AFC championship game against the Ravens and hopes to get the same kind of pressure up the middle on Eli that he did on Flacco. He has such a high motor for a man his size and plays all three downs most of the time. Look for him to have a MAJOR impact on this game. On each side of Wilfork, you have Mark Anderson who has filled in very well for the injured Andre Carter, and Rob Ninkovich. Both players have been huge parts in this late season defensive surge the Patriots have been on of late. It seems as though Mayo and Spikes are going to have to step up and stop the run too, which I think they will do effectively. That's Spikes area of expertise and Mayo is no slouch in the run game either. The main focus here is going to be the secondary. The secondary has to play well in this game if the Patriots are going to have a shot at winning this thing. Sterling Moore and Kyle Arrington will need help from Chung and McCourty over the top in this game as the Giants will be looking to take advantage of the Pats weak secondary early and often. Hopefully Moore can continue the great play he has been showing as of late and McCourty can continue to provide the help that the Patriots needed at safety. They will look to stop the run first and force Eli to throw into tight windows. If they can get pressure on Eli it would go a long way toward them winning this game. I can't see him keeping up the current pace he is on, I know that old Eli Manning is in there somewhere.

Giants:

This is where my problem is. The Giants defense is being severely overrated going into this game. The way the media is talking about it, it's like its the second coming of the '85 Bears, or the 'Steel Curtain'. Guess what sports fans? Statistically, the Giants defense was worse than the Patriots this season. They were 25th in points given up per game (10 slots worse than the Pats), and 2 slots worse against the run, giving up 121.2 yards per game on the ground. Oh and the Patriots also had more sacks than the Giants this season, just thought I would throw that out there and see how it settles with you. The Giants know where their bread is buttered, and that's on the defensive line. They have three men who can all get to the quarterback at any given time, Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. They are all strong, fast and long, which can lead to immediate pressure to Brady, and strip sacks. Throughout the season JPP has terrorized QBs totaling 16.5 sacks and he will more than likely provide a tough matchup for rookie tackle Nate Solder. Chris Canty is another name on the line you can't sleep on and may step up big when the other linemen are being blocked. The rest of the Giants defense is where it starts to get ugly. Michael Boley and BC alum Mathias Kiwanuka are standout names in the linebacking core. Kiwanuka has proven he can get to the quarterback at times and could present problems for the Pats, like Kawika Mitchell was in 2007.

The Giants secondary is weak, Aaron Ross and Corey Webster are coming off less than stellar seasons. Antrel Rolle and Kenny Phillips will provide the help in the middle of the field and over the top at safety. Rolle is a playmaker for them. He is the person I see getting an interception when Brady tries to force one to Gronk or Welker. As scary as the Giants pass rush is, they only had 4 sacks this season against two tight end sets, and that's what the Patriots run 70% of the time. If you are expecting a rush and sack fest like you saw in 2007, think again. Brady will have time. What he does with that time remains to be seen.

Overall outlook:

The Patriots will run the ball early to set up mid range catch and run plays early. They will look to keep Eli and the intimidating passing attack off the field as much as possible. The Giants will follow suit when they get the ball and take deeper shots down field. They'll keep the clock running with Bradshaw and Jacobs in an attempt to keep Tom off the field. The Pats will most likely report Nate Solder in as a tight end in a lot of situations to provide extra blocking on JPP to keep him neutralized. Don't expect a big game out of him. Hernandez will set up alongside Matt Light to provide help on Osi. The tight end help will keep the big name pass rushers out of the backfield for the most part. Justin Tuck scares me the most coming up the middle on Dan Conolly who is filling in for the injured Dan Koppen. I see the Brady having much more time than he had in 2007 and being able to connect with his receivers at will. The Giants don't have any linebackers that can run with Hernandez, and nobody that can match up with Gronk if he is healthy enough to participate in the passing game. Welker will rack up the yardage as usual against the Giants and have the biggest game for the Pats. Green-Ellis will set up the pass perfectly with his between the tackles running, I expect a good game out of him. I see Eli being able to get his yardage and probably complete a few deep balls but its the turnover battle where this game will be won and I see Eli screwing up before Brady does. Wilfork will pressure Eli up the middle forcing him to roll out into the arms of Anderson and Ninkovich.

Brady and Belichick won't let the Patriots lose this game. There is too much riding on it. It would be their 4th title together. It would send Brady into almost unarguable 'greatest of all time' status. A win would also mean so much to this organization and the Kraft family who lost a key contributor and member of their family in Bob Kraft's wife, Myra. She meant so much to him and this team as you can see by the patch they wear in her honor on the left breast. They have to win this game for Myra.

Final Score: Patriots 34 Giants 24

Superbowl MVP: Tom Brady

We can only hope. Win it for MHK boys.

-Zakary 'ZHawk' Hawkins