2013-2014 Pats Positional Primer: Part 1

How's that for alliteration?

Football season is upon us ladies and gentlemen! The Patriots played their final preseason game tonight and will trim the last fat off of a roster that, in some ways, is much improved over last season. They lost some key players and have made some nice additions to their team that will, in the long term, reap great benefits. Let's take a look at the offensive side of the ball as there were some extremely interesting and controversial signings there.

The average Pats fan will hem and haw, repeatedly about the loss of Wes Welker and how it was a terrible move for the franchise. "Why the hell did they let Welkah, go? I swayah that Belichick is frickin' retahded sometimes." I assure you that's not the case. If Welker's replacement, Danny Amendola, can stay healthy, he will be better than Wes in a lot of ways. He's 27 years old which is 5 years younger than the former slot receiver. He's not listed as being taller than Welker but when you see him on the field, he definitely looks substantially larger in stature than the diminutive #83. He's faster. You can see that he hits his top end speed much quicker than Welker ever did coming out of cuts. He's more elusive than Welker. Hell, as it stands right now he even has better hands than the former Pats receiver as Welker had the sixth most dropped passes in the NFL last season with 9. It's silly to think that Brady and Amendola will have the amazing rapport that Welker and Brady shared right out of the gate but, over time, that may be exactly what they share. It remains to be seen whether or not Danny can stay healthy for an entire NFL season though. Amendola carries the stigma of being a injury prone player but I tend to think that's a little exaggerated considering the freakishness of his injury last season. Danny was forced to have season ending clavicle surgery last season after breaking it in a game and having the clavicle pop inward instead of outward which caused it to come within millimeters of puncturing his trachea and aorta. The jury is still out as we move into the final week of the preseason but if all things go as we hope they will, Amendola will be a huge contributor right out of the gate as the Patriots number 1 receiving target.

You may have heard, and if you haven't then I may ask if you've been living under a rock all summer, that the Patriots signed quarterback Tim Tebow this off season. So many people make a huge deal over this signing because of who he is and the media circus that he brings to the team. In reality, he's nothing more than a third string quarterback who will never see any time on the field this season. No, they aren't going to create a separate playbook to incorporate him into the offense. For all you people that think they are going to draw up trick plays for him and he's going to see some time on the field. That's just not going to happen. The Pats aren't going to waste valuable practice time, and take time away from Brady's preparation, so they can work this guy into the offense. At MOST, he'll help the team in practice prepare for scrambling quarterbacks when they have one coming up on the schedule. He'll sit on the bench, probably pray a couple times a game and get way more camera time than he deserves. I'm not by any means a Tebow apologist as I think that there are probably 20 or more free agent quarterbacks that could come in right now and be a more productive backup than him. Who knows, this may be one of those pride moves for Belichick where he wants to prove he can make something of a man that nobody else could. I just don't think it's worth crucifying (see what I did there?) Belichick over. If I've learned anything over the years, it's that I trust the man in charge. (Note that as I write this, there is a very good chance that Tebow could be cut before the season begins next Sunday)

As we're coming out of preseason I've been thinking about who the key contributors at every position will be and what the depth charts will look like heading in to the season. Offensively this is how I see things shaking out.

Quarterback: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallet, Tim Tebow
Tom Brady is Tom Brady. The guy is coming off of one of his best seasons he's ever had throwing for 4,827 yards, 34 touchdowns and a sterling 8 interceptions. The guy is like a fine wine. He get's better with age. This season will certainly have a learning curve in the early stages with all the new faces Tom will be throwing to but once they get some games under their belt, expect much of the same from Brady and the Pats. If we've learned anything from him in the past, Tom Brady makes it work regardless of who he is throwing the ball to and in most cases, he makes the players he's throwing to look like All-Pros. This is a make or break season for Ryan Mallet. He's not going to get many glimpses of game action unless, God forbid, Brady goes down for some reason, so it'll be hard to evaluate exactly how the 3rd year backup has progressed. He has been mentioned by many media outlets as a guy that could be traded for by a team that needs a starting quarterback and I'm not exactly sure he proved he can come in a be that guy for a team.
Brady projected stat line: 4,650 yds, 38 TDs, 10 INT
Mallet projected stat line: Let's hope he doesn't have one

Offensive line: LT Nate Solder, LG Logan Mankins, C Ryan Wendell, RG Dan Connolly, RT Sebastian Vollmer
Not much has changed here. Third year man Nate Solder is protecting Brady's blindside for a second straight season. You didn't hear a whole lot about him last year and I guess that's a good thing considering it means he wasn't doing anything wrong. He was sound and athletic on the edge, and much improved from his rookie season. He'll look to build on that this year. Mankins is the quintessential guard. An absolute mauler who loves nothing more than smashing the face of the defender in front of him. He's the unquestioned leader of this line and provides excellent pass and run support. An important cog in this offensive line is Vollmer. When he's healthy, he's one of the best right tackles in the NFL, but he seems to be one of those guys who always contracts a nagging injury that keeps him out way longer than you think it should. If this line can stay healthy, it will continue the trend of being one of the top 5 offensive lines in the NFL.

Running backs: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, LeGarrette Blount, Leon Washington, Brandon Bolden
Ridley is entering his third NFL season and his second as the feature back of this offense. He broke out last season amassing 1,263 rushing yards, 18 total touchdowns and a 4.4 yards per carry average. He's not overly flashy but he proved last year he's someone whom you can give the ball to consistently between the tackles on first and second down and will take care of the football. Shane Vereen is one of my key players to watch this year. Danny Woodhead was shown the door in free agency as he bolted to the Chargers and Vereen will fill his spot as the third down, pass catching back seamlessly. Vereen has the skillset to be a weapon out of the backfield and make you forget Danny Woodhead was even a human. Vereen has exceptional hands and top end speed making him a huge asset in the passing game and a player that Brady will look to often. Blount adds an interesting wrinkle into the Pats running game as he's something they haven't really had in the past few seasons; a real power back. Blount is a monster of a running back and hardly ever gets taken down by the first tackler. He'll be used in short yardage and goal line situations and should be a very useful runner out of the backfield. Washington has the reputation as one of the best kick returners in the NFL and that's mostly where you'll see him used, but don't be surprised if you also see him catching some passes out of the backfield and spelling Shane Vereen.
Ridley projected stat line: 1,215 yds, 10 rushing TDs, 3 receiving TDs 4.6 yards per carry.
Vereen projected stat line: 425 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, 410 receiving yards, 4 receiving TDs
Blount projected stat line: 360 yds, 6 TDs

Wide receivers: Danny Amendola, Kenbrell Thompkins, Julian Edelman, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Matthew Slater
Danny Amendola is going to be the key guy here. As I stated above he is going to be Welker's replacement and even more because I've heard that he'll be lining up a lot outside of the numbers as well as inside, which brings more versatility to his role. He's sure handed and from all accounts a fast learner so I expect him to have a huge season as the Patriots go-to wideout. Rookie Kenbrell Thompkins is a fantastic story. Kenbrell is a former juvenile delinquent and drug dealer who decided to clean his act up, go to the University of Cincinatti and take this football thing seriously. Signed as an undrafted rookie, the six foot receiver has burst on to the scene impressing the coaching staff and hurdling over several other rookies who looked to be ahead of him going into training camp. He's quickly earned the trust of Tom Brady and has had some great games and flashes in the preaseason which lead me to believe he'll be the wide receiver lining up on the outside opposite Danny Amendola. Julian Edelman will see a huge amount of time in the slot and be the shifty, run after the catch receiver we've seen him be in the past. Injury is something Edelman has to avoid this year as Brady will be depending on him more heavily now, than in years past. Aaron Dobson, the Patriots second round draft pick is a 6'3, 210 lb specimen at the wide receiver spot. He has freakish hands and leaping ability that will undoubtedly make for some highlight reel catches this year, much like this one from his senior year at Marshall: "The Catch". He could very well finish this season as the second or third best wide receiver on the team. Josh Boyce is a strong, compact rookie wideout from TCU who can come in and do some special things in this offense. He provides the team something they have lacked in recent years, a guy with 4.30 speed that can get down the field. I expect him to be utilized on a lot of deep routes, and screen passes as he can be dangerous after the catch in the open field.
Amendola projected stat line: 89 rec, 1,100 yds, 6 TDs
Kenbrell Thompkins: 56 rec, 840 yds, 5 TD
Julian Edelman: 50 rec, 660 yds, 3 TD
Aaron Dobson: 40 rec, 520 yds, 4 TD
Josh Boyce: 35 rec, 410 yds, 3 TD

Tight Ends: Rob Gronkowski, Jake Ballard, Zach Sudfeld
The legend of Gronk continues on to another season. Unfortunately this season it begins with Gronk sidelined as he recovers from a broken wrist and offseason back surgery. When he returns, you should expect him to quickly take back his role as the best tight end in all of football. Maybe not right away, but the man is a freak of nature and I wouldn't put anything past him. To start the season, you'll see a lot of Jake Ballard and Zach Sudfeld. Ballard was an up and coming TE for the Giants before tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl against the Patriots which put an abrupt halt to his development. He has good hands an athleticism for a guy that stands at 6'7 and is also proficient in the blocking game. Sudfeld is a very interesting prospect. From what I've seen so far he has a lot of the unteachable tools that Gronk has on the field. He's extremely athletic and adjusts very well in the air to make difficult catches look easy. Also, much like Gronk, he is very strong in the blocking game and will be a huge contributor in that area of the game as that's one of the best ways to get on Belichick's good side.
Gronkowski projected stat line: 50 rec, 700 yds, 5 TD
Ballard projected stat line: 30 rec, 290 yds, 2 TD
Zach Sudfeld: 30 rec, 350 yds, 3 TD

If all goes according to plan, and it rarely does, that's how I see it playing out. Obviously injuries, cuts, and whatnot will follow this final preseason game but I think this offense, while slightly young and inexperienced, has the potential to do some special things. It may take them a couple weeks to get into the full swing of things, but I would expect them to be the same high octane offense they usually are and put up 30+ points a game. They could possibly be a little more run oriented than we've seen in the past as they have a pretty special stable of running backs, but overall this offense will be a force to be reckoned with.

Keep your eyes peeled for my next piece where I take a look at the defensive side of the ball and what you should expect from your beloved Patriots in that area.

Be well.

-ZHawk

Addressing the Patriots Draft Day Needs

Welcome to the second blog post of the day! After reading about the Bruins depressing game 7 loss at home let’s take a look at an upbeat topic and that’s the NFL Draft starting tonight on ESPN in primetime.

Get ready for it Patriots fans but guess what? You got it the Patriots have 2 first round picks in this years draft! And 2 in the second round as well! The chances they take all 4 of those picks in those spots? Slim to none and slim left the building a while ago but I’m going to play it like they will use both of those picks in the first and second round to try and plug holes. In the first round the Patriots hold the 27^th pick (from N.O.) and the 31^st. In the second round they’ll pick 48^th (from OAK) and 62^nd overall.

Here are the Patriots team needs and who I think they could look at it to fill each of those needs:

Edge Pass Rushing Specialist (OLB or DE)

The Patriots biggest weakness is well known and was even more evident in the playoffs last year after revelation Andre Carter went down for the year. Carter and scrap heap pickup Mark Anderson accounted for 20 of the Patriots 40 sacks. Carter might not come back this year as he recovers from his injury and Anderson signed a lucrative contract with the Bills. Who does that leave behind to rush the passer from the edge? Overachieving OLB Rob Ninkovich, underachieving OLB Jermaine Cunningham and basically a cast of misfits at the DE spots. Belichick for years has schemed around the fact that he hasn’t had a solid edge rusher since Mike Vrabel’s hayday but its time to use one of his first round picks on a big time rusher. Last year he didn’t use any of his picks to grab a rusher and he watched Jabaal Sheard, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Hayward, and Akeem Ayers slip by just to name a few. I think the Patriots go after Boise State OLB Shea McClellin who is versatile and has been rocketing up draft boards. Other options include Illinois DE Whitney Mercilus who is inconsistent but had a great year last year, Marshall DE Vinny Curry, and if they continue to fall down draft boards either the uber talented but undermotivated North Carolina DE Quinton Coples or the productive Alabama DE Courtney Upshaw. Any of those listed above would greatly improve the Patriots ability to move opposing QB’s off their spot.

Secondary Help

Plain and simple the Patriots don’t have enough talent in their secondary to stop giving up copious amounts of big plays. Last year the Patriots were statistically atrocious and a look at the names the Patriots threw back there shows you why. Kyle Arrington smoked and mirrored his way to 7 picks but he’s more suited to be a nickelback not a shutdown corner. I don’t know what the Patriots have in Ras-I Dowling and neither do they after he had his season cut short after week 1 last year and the year before at the University of Virginia. By all indications the Patriots plan to move former Pro Bowl and Rookie of the Year CB Devin McCourty to safety full time in his 3^rd year to pair him with potential stud Patrick Chung that leaves them weak at the CB spot. Belichick isn’t afraid to address the secondary early in the draft, see: McCourty and Chung in rounds 1 and 2 in 2010, and I think he’ll do it again this year. I’m going to say that the Patriots don’t go after Notre Dame S Harrison Smith, which is what a lot of experts think they’ll do, because of McCourty’s move to safety but rather one of the two troubled CBs in former Florida Gator and current North Alabama star Janoris Jenkins or Montana CB Trumaine Johnson. Central Florida CB Josh Robinson is also a possibility if the Patriots wait til round 2 to grab some CB help. Disclaimer: Belichick could definitely grab Harrison Smith if he’s sitting there.

Defensive Tackle Help for Wilfork

Kyle Love and Myron Pryor did a great job down the stretch last year but the Patriots need another big body to help out in their interior rotation. I think this could be the position they address at the end of round 1 or with their first pick in the middle of round 2. Get the big fella Wilfork some help! A whole slew of characters are possibilities at the DT position and many of them are mid first round talents who have slipped for a myriad of reasons. From the group that is slipping the Patriots will look at Penn State DT Devon Still and Michigan State DT Jerel Worthy (I think he’d be the best fit for the Patriots if they can land him late in round 1). UConn DT Kendall Reyes was flying up draft boards about a month ago but now he’s falling back into the late 1^st early 2^nd round talk and I don’t think the Patriots would mind getting their hands on him with their pick at 48. If Reyes is gone at 48 and they didn’t get one of the other two early, Cincinnati DT Derek Wolfe could come into play. If the heavens decide to smile down on the Pats then LSU DT Michael Brockers would slip to the end of the 1^st round but don’t hold your breath on that one.

Offensive Tackle

With decade long LT Matt Light revealing his intentions to retire from the NFL the Patriots now have a need at the tackle spot. The Patriots current starting tackles look like last years first round pick Nate ‘the Boulder’ Solder and talented but oft injured German tackle Sebastian Vollmer. The Patriots could use a young backup who has the ability to step in if Vollmer isn’t fully healed from last years nightmarish injury filled year. When he’s healthy though Vollmer is a beast along the line and is the reason why the Patriots considered not bringing back Light last year. Belichick tends to build his teams from the line out and I don’t think he’ll change that philosophy now especially with his long time LT calling it a career. Solder was a solid find in the middle of round 1 last year and I think he’ll definitely take a few more large steps forward this year. If he’s still there at the end of the 1^st round I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Patriots tap Andrew Luck’s former LT in Stanford OT Jonathan Martin. If he sticks around this long, and I don’t think he will, the Patriots would also be more than happy to grab versatile Georgia OT/G Cordy Glenn. Though he doesn’t play tackle another lineman who fits the Patriots mold is bruising Wisconsin C/G Peter Konz. I’ve read multiple places that his mean streak has been likened to that of current Patriots G Logan Mankins. A dark horse here is Ohio State OT Mike Adams who has played in some big games and protected the blind side of some big time QBs.

Wide Receiver

The Patriots need to get younger at WR there’s no way around it. WR Deion Branch is getting up there in years and outside of Wes Welker the rest of the group isn’t very versatile, young, or particularly fast. Belichick has never gone into the 1^st round for a WR and I don’t think he will this year but grabbing one in the 2^nd round isn’t uncommon for him, i.e. Chad Jackson and Brandon Tate though neither one of them worked out particularly well. Two months ago I would’ve told you that Georgia Tech WR Stephen Hill would’ve been a steal in round 2 due to his ability to burn deep but now that he’s become a known commodity among the NFL’s elite he’s not going to stick around until the second round leaving the Patriots to probably say ‘Go fish’ on a receiver in the first two rounds. They’ll probably kick the tires on LSU WR Reuben Randle, Belichick does love his LSU kids, South Carolina tall guy WR Alshon Jeffery but I don’t see him taking either one. This pick will come later in the draft.

There it is folks my breakdown of the Bruins season ending prematurely and where I think the Patriots might look in tonight’s first round of the NFL draft and tomorrow’s second round. Check back after the draft for a breakdown of all the Patriots selections (and probably their multiple trades to accumulate picks in the 2013 NFL Draft). Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

Causeway Street Patriots Nation turns its lonely eyes to you

Quick question Red Sox and Patriots Nation what building houses the last two Boston sports champions simultaneously? Ding ding ding! Time’s up! Sorry Gillette but it’s not you with the Revolution and Patriots nor is it you Fenway Park with the Red Sox and the Liverpool whatevers but it’s you TD Garden!

The TD Garden suffered for years through a myriad of names ranging from the Fleet Center and multiple other random names including at one point when you could by the rights to name the stadium whatever you wanted for a day – fun fact. Finally (mercifully a better word?) though it’s two inhabitants, the Bruins and Celts, finally turned the corner from habitual first round exit and perpetual suckfest, respectively, and rewarded the Boston faithful with a Stanley Cup and an NBA championship. In the past 5 years the Bruins and Celtics are the only champions that the great region of New England has to boast about to those arrogant New York pricks. The Red Sox have come close in that 5 year window losing in game 7 of the ALCS to those loveable Tampa Bay Rays, I know I should hate them because they’re in the AL East but boy are they fun to watch and they just seem to do everything the right way, and the Patriots have made it to the biggest game on Earth twice as favorites only to be turned away by the fuckin’ Giants, sorry still a little bitter about Super Bowl XLII and XLVI, yet it’s only the Bruins and Celtics who have delivered the crowns upon which titletown USA was built: the Stanley Cup and NBA title. After watching the Red Sox win the 2010 offseason and subsequently drink there way to infamy during the 2011 baseball season and then turning their eyes and watching the Patriots go from a solid team who should win a playoff game or two to Super Bowl favorites only to be bested by Eli Manning it’s now time that Boston turns its sad eyes back to the Bruins and Celtics in hopes that they’ll quell that championship thirst.

The Red Sox turned out to be the ultimate paper champions when the shit hit the fan and the Patriots gave it a valiant effort but if you honestly thought that Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo and their band of misfits we’re going to stop Eli on that last drive after the Welker-Brady miscue then you’re a better fan than I can ever be. It was becoming more and more clear throughout that game that the defense was playing masterfully but the ball just wasn’t fumbling the Patriots way and midnight was bound to strike soon on the Cinderella defensive scheme, yet I digress. Back to the topic at hand which is the Celtics and mostly the Bruins carry on their shoulders the Boston fan bases hopes and dreams for being the sports elite and lately they’ve done a fine job of it. Time to take a glimpse at each team’s chances of restoring the peace in Beantown.

First up we have the Celtics who about a month ago didn’t appear anywhere near sniffing the second round of the playoffs let alone a shot at the title but recently they’ve started to gain some steam with no coincidence that they’re resurgence coincides with Paul Pierce getting healthy again and KG looking the best he has since the devastating knee injury of three years ago. Before KG blew out his knee against Utah 3 odd years ago the Celtics appeared poised to make it two rings in three years but since then they’ve still managed to make it to game 7 of the NBA finals against the vaunted Lakers before blowing a late lead in L.A. but last year they were bounced unceremoniously by the new Big Three in Miami.

The Celtics started the abbreviated 2011-12 year 0-3 and then 4-8 before ripping off 9 out of 10 with a 5 win streak currently in their midst. The shortened season tends to favor a team like the Celtics as long as they can get into the playoffs in the top 4 seeds. A shortened season favors older teams who are good enough to allow their old dogs a few games off here and there and still track down one of those top seeds. Home court has always been crucial for this latest version of the Celtics. The swap of big baby Glen Davis for Brandon Bass has looked like a stroke of genius on the part of GM Danny Ainge and another mind numbing mistake by Orlando GM Otis Smith. Bass has been a better offensive player and a better defender and rebounder than baby while playing alongside Garnett he’s done a great job of bringing out the firey defender in Garnett once again. When Garnett is defending like he has been lately while also pouring in between 15-20 points and grabbing roughly 10 rebounds the Celtics are on the right track. Ray Allen has been phenomenal all year and he’s the kind of guy who takes pride in staying in shape over the long haul. Pierce took the beginning of the year to get healthy and as long as he can stay in shape he’s a great offensive piece to center it all around. Rajon Rondo makes this offense tick and his health will be one of the keys to the Celtics making a run deep into the playoffs, just if he could shoot but oh well.

The true key in my mind will be whether or not Ainge is able to swing a deal for a body to defend the paint and chip in some offense because as good a player as he was in his hay day Jermaine O’Neal just can’t stay healthy enough to be a solid contributor over the long haul. Mikael Pietrus is a great wing defender and once he settles in he’ll be a huge piece coming off the bench down the stretch and the Celtics are all set backing up the guard spots with veteran Keyon Dooling and youngster Avery Bradley. Bradley has settled in nicely and is playing very good perimeter defense and taking care of the ball not much more you can ask for in a backup PG. The Celtics are a big body and possibly a wing scorer off the bench from giving the Heat, Bulls, Mavs, Lakers and anyone else one last run for their money. There is hope but don’t hang your hat on it rather I’d hitch my wagon to the latest Boston champion: the Boston Bruins.

As an abashed Bruins fan who watched and had my heart broken by the Spoked B my entire life watching them blow top seeds and get bumped out by the dreaded Canadiens habitually last years run to the Stanley Cup was absolutely orgasmic. For once the Bruins were the team who got ridiculously hot at exactly the right team and ran train on the rest of the league. The Bruins were the ones with the top goaltender, Timmy Thomas, who could stop mass quantities of rubber on command and lead his team to numerous 1-0 and 2-0 victories. The Bruins were also the ones with the annoying as shit guy in Brad Marchand and the gifted offensive talent who caught fire at just right the time in David Krejci. It was beautiful to watch the Bruins exile their past demons by coming back from a 2-0 hole against the Canadiens in round 1 and then sweeping the Flyers, who just the year before had sent the Bruins into the history books by rebounding from a 3-0 series deficit to advance, with beat down after beat down. They then leaned on 2-time, in 3 years might I add, Vezina Trophy winner Tim Thomas to carry them past the very gifted but goaltenderless Tampa Bay Lightning in 7 games. Finally in the Stanley Cup Finals the Bruins squared off their polar opposite in the savvy but weak President Trophy winning Vancouver Canucks and after losing the first two games in Vancouver rebounded to humiliate the Canucks and Roberto Luongo throughout the last 5 games by winning 4 and the Cup.

After a deep run in the playoffs and the retirement of the Bruins heart and soul Mark Recchi the Bruins understandably got off to a super slow start this year before rebounding in a big way. After the season’s first month and first ten games the Bruins were an abysmal 3-7 and looked brutal after losing a home and home to the Canadiens. I don’t know what Claude Julien did but he found a way to light a fire under his teams ass and watched them rip off 10 straight wins and points in 15 straight with their only non win point coming in a 3-2 shootout loss to the Western Conference leader Detroit Red Wings. That’s 29 out of a possible 30 points. Led by young sniper whiz kid Tyler Seguin and the league’s best goaltending tandem the Bruins found their stride and after dropping two in a row then won 7 more in a row. The Bruins have hit a little bit of a snag lately with some poor losses against some below par teams but have still been able to keep up the pace with the top team in the Eastern Conference: the New York Blueshirts.

Peter Chiarelli found a way to wrestle power and money away from the Jacobs family like no one has been able to before and he has rewarded the Hub of Hockey with one championship and a very real possibility of another one. The Bruins are loaded with young talent and depth up to wazoo not to mention the top goaltending tandem in hockey: Tuuka Rask and Tim Thomas. The Bruins already have a 20-goal scorer in Tyler Seguin and 4 other guys over 15 goals: Patrice Bergeron (15) Nathan Horton (17) Milan Lucic (19) Brad Marchand (19). With a reinvented power play (11^th in the league at 18.5%, thanks to Tyler Seguin channeling his inner Marc Savard and being able to control the halfwall), the usual amazing penalty killing (7^th in the NHL), a GAA of 2.2 (4^th), and a GFA of 3.4 (1^st) the Bruins are the envy of the NHL currently. On any given night Julien can move his ‘first line’ center David Krejci who has become more and more of a magician with the puck to the third line and bring defensive minded Chris Kelly up to the first line and still pull off a 4-1 win over the Southeast Conference leading Washington Capitals.

Defensively Julien’s system is better than ever and you can thank Big Z, Zdeno Chara, coupled with the emergence of Dennis Seidenberg, Johnny Boychuck, Andrew Ference and Adam McQuaid teamed up with his amazing backstops for keeping the Bruins near the top of the league in GAA. The Bruins have depth for days and 3 very solid lines that can score at will and a 4^th line that is amazing at beating and battering the other teams top lines. All of this goes without mentioning the best reason why the Bruins have a very good chance of piecing back together New England’s broken hearts by making a run deep in the playoffs: the play of the Seguin-Bergeron-Marchand line. The Bruins second line has become one of the top 3 or 4 lines in the league and has been producing points at an unreal rate. In 51 games Bergeron has 46 points to lead the Bruins Seguin is a close second with 44 points and Marchand is pulling up the rear with 38 points. This line can shut down another teams top line while also putting a few goals up on the board what more can you ask for? The Bruins have a shot to repeat and win a title that New England feels it deserves after having the Super Bowl pulled from the grasp for the 2^nd time in 5 years.

There you have it folks a few reasons why there is a legitimate shot that either the Bruins or Celtics will be able to deliver a championship in June 2012. If I was a betting man I wouldn’t hesitate to throw a few bones the way of the Bruins and maybe even grab the Celtics if the odds were right because if things break their way you never know what a few old dogs might be able to pull off. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

Super Bowl XLVI Primer: Patriots vs. Giants

Hey you! It's been a while!

For those of you that follow professional tackle football, and more so for those of you that don't, there is a pretty big game going down on Sunday. The New England Patriots square off against the New York football Giants in Super Bowl XLVI in a clash of two great offenses and two mediocre defenses. The Patriots are looking to avenge their loss in the 2007 Super Bowl in which they fell to the Giants ending their bid at a perfect season. You can bet that loss is still fresh in the great minds of Brady and Belichick and they have been game planning to make sure history does not repeat itself. The Giants are looking to do the same thing they did in 2007 and upset the favored Patriots and win their 2nd title in 4 years. Although these teams did meet just 4 seasons ago, they are in no way the same teams. The Giants return 15 players from that game while the Pats return just seven. The Giants defense is much weaker as is the Patriots. Patriots offense is just as dynamic, but is executed with a much more intermediate passing game and throws between the numbers rather than the high octane historic offense of '07. Giants offense is much improved since '07 as well. Eli Manning is coming off of his best season yet and is making his best case for you to consider his name when you mention the best QBs in the NFL. If you are a NFL die-hard, you may know much of what I am telling you and going to tell you. If not, then I hope I inform you the best way I can about what could possibly be the biggest Super Bowl in NFL history.

Offensive outlook and predictions:

Patriots:

Tom Brady is coming off the second best season of his illustrious career in the NFL and is poised to earn his 4th championship ring. Brady threw for 5,235 yards this season, breaking 'Thunder' Dan Marino's NFL record 5,084, he also threw for 39 touchdowns and had a 105.6 passer rating. In simple terms, he wasn't exactly bad. He slings it around to a great group of receivers headlined by Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. Welker historically torches the Giants in his career so look for him to have a big game on Sunday. Gronk is a serious question mark on the other hand and has many Patriots fans biting their nails wondering if he will be recovered from a high ankle sprain that he suffered in last weeks win over the Baltimore Ravens. Aaron Hernandez is another key part to this offense and has taken on multiple roles as of late for the Pats. Hernandez is superb in the open field so Belichick looks to get him the ball in a multitude of ways, screen passes, handoffs, short throws and deep throws, Hernandez does it all. With Gronk ailing look for Aaron to have a big game across the middle.

I expect the Patriots to give the Giants a steady dose of the run to set up the pass, look for 'The Law Firm', sure handed Benjarvus Green-Ellis to hammer the ball up the middle and cut back runner Stevan Ridley to have an impact in this one. I have a sneaky suspicion that some plays are being drawn up for oft-maligned wideout Chad Ochocinco for this game. Although its been his a tumultuous season for the receiver, I feel like this game can't be played without Ocho getting on the field, Bill Belichick likes him too much. He's been through too much in his career and been too much of a team player to not get on the field in his first and possibly only Super Bowl, and you can bet that he'll be targeted AT LEAST 2-3 times because of the Giants game planning for the other big names. The Patriots offensive line is going to determine the outcome of this game, I fully believe that. If they can give Brady time in the pocket the Patriots will easily win this game. If not, well, all bets are off.

Notable Stat Predictions:

Tom Brady: 23-35 345 yards 3 TD 1 INT

Wes Welker: 13 catches 145 yards 1 TD

Aaron Hernandez: 8 catches 112 yards

Rob Gronkowski: 6 catches 56 yards 1 TD

Chad Ochocinco: 2 catches 37 yards 1 TD

Benjarvus Green-Ellis: 17 carries 83 yards 1 TD

Giants:

Can't lie here. As much as it hurts to say it, Eli Manning has been great this season. He was one of the constants on an up and down Giants team this season, he kept them pushing forward when things were looking bleak. He also may have officially taken the "Comeback Kid" moniker away from Tom Brady. Manning has been elite in the fourth quarter this season leading the NFL in fourth quarter touchdowns. Eli has his fantastic receiving core to thank for his season. Strong bodied Hakeem Nicks, paired with elusive, sure-handed Victor Cruz is definitely a troubling match up for the Pats defense which was ranked last in passing yardage this season. Add in Mario Manningham and the Pats will surely have their hands full while defending the pass.

The Giants tout a running game consisting of Ahmad Bradshaw and 6'4 bruising back Brandon Jacobs. The Giants are primarily known as a run first team and are usually pretty successful at doing so, but I can't see that happening on Super Bowl sunday. The Patriots haven't been ran over this season at all except for one game where Fred Jackson had over 100 yards. Bradshaw isn't very fast or shifty and Jacobs is slower now than ever and isn't what he used to be. Like the Patriots, the Giants will run to set up the play action pass and open up the offense. The Giants do tend to go deeper down the field than the Patriots do though, so look for some deep balls to Nicks and Manningham.

Notable stat predictions:

Eli Manning: 27-43 321 yards 2 TD 2 INT

Victor Cruz: 10 catches 119 yards

Hakeem Nicks: 6 catches 88 yards 1 TD

Mario Mannnigham: 4 catches 45 yards

Jake Ballard: 2 catches 21 yards 1 TD

Ahmad Bradshaw: 19 carries 68 yards 1 TD

Defensive outlook:

Patriots:

The Pats D has been referred to as many things this season. None of them are good. The thing they have been called the most though is 'the worst defense of all time'. That's a little harsh though and kind of unfair to this team in my opinion. The Patriots gave up the second most yards per game in the NFL this season, but that stat got padded so much by them going into a prevent defense at the end of games because they were up by so much. That's when guys like Dan Orlovsky and Matt Moore racked up a good chunk of yardage. It's not like the Patriots were getting tossed on for all 4 quarters, their record would have been nowhere near as good if that were the case. Another underrated stat is that the Pats only give up 21.4 points per game this year which is good for 15th in the league. Not the greatest, but nowhere near the worst of all time.

The Patriots D is headlined by Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Patrick Chung and Brandon Spikes. Vince Wilfork will almost undoubtedly be a force in this game. He was a beast in the AFC championship game against the Ravens and hopes to get the same kind of pressure up the middle on Eli that he did on Flacco. He has such a high motor for a man his size and plays all three downs most of the time. Look for him to have a MAJOR impact on this game. On each side of Wilfork, you have Mark Anderson who has filled in very well for the injured Andre Carter, and Rob Ninkovich. Both players have been huge parts in this late season defensive surge the Patriots have been on of late. It seems as though Mayo and Spikes are going to have to step up and stop the run too, which I think they will do effectively. That's Spikes area of expertise and Mayo is no slouch in the run game either. The main focus here is going to be the secondary. The secondary has to play well in this game if the Patriots are going to have a shot at winning this thing. Sterling Moore and Kyle Arrington will need help from Chung and McCourty over the top in this game as the Giants will be looking to take advantage of the Pats weak secondary early and often. Hopefully Moore can continue the great play he has been showing as of late and McCourty can continue to provide the help that the Patriots needed at safety. They will look to stop the run first and force Eli to throw into tight windows. If they can get pressure on Eli it would go a long way toward them winning this game. I can't see him keeping up the current pace he is on, I know that old Eli Manning is in there somewhere.

Giants:

This is where my problem is. The Giants defense is being severely overrated going into this game. The way the media is talking about it, it's like its the second coming of the '85 Bears, or the 'Steel Curtain'. Guess what sports fans? Statistically, the Giants defense was worse than the Patriots this season. They were 25th in points given up per game (10 slots worse than the Pats), and 2 slots worse against the run, giving up 121.2 yards per game on the ground. Oh and the Patriots also had more sacks than the Giants this season, just thought I would throw that out there and see how it settles with you. The Giants know where their bread is buttered, and that's on the defensive line. They have three men who can all get to the quarterback at any given time, Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. They are all strong, fast and long, which can lead to immediate pressure to Brady, and strip sacks. Throughout the season JPP has terrorized QBs totaling 16.5 sacks and he will more than likely provide a tough matchup for rookie tackle Nate Solder. Chris Canty is another name on the line you can't sleep on and may step up big when the other linemen are being blocked. The rest of the Giants defense is where it starts to get ugly. Michael Boley and BC alum Mathias Kiwanuka are standout names in the linebacking core. Kiwanuka has proven he can get to the quarterback at times and could present problems for the Pats, like Kawika Mitchell was in 2007.

The Giants secondary is weak, Aaron Ross and Corey Webster are coming off less than stellar seasons. Antrel Rolle and Kenny Phillips will provide the help in the middle of the field and over the top at safety. Rolle is a playmaker for them. He is the person I see getting an interception when Brady tries to force one to Gronk or Welker. As scary as the Giants pass rush is, they only had 4 sacks this season against two tight end sets, and that's what the Patriots run 70% of the time. If you are expecting a rush and sack fest like you saw in 2007, think again. Brady will have time. What he does with that time remains to be seen.

Overall outlook:

The Patriots will run the ball early to set up mid range catch and run plays early. They will look to keep Eli and the intimidating passing attack off the field as much as possible. The Giants will follow suit when they get the ball and take deeper shots down field. They'll keep the clock running with Bradshaw and Jacobs in an attempt to keep Tom off the field. The Pats will most likely report Nate Solder in as a tight end in a lot of situations to provide extra blocking on JPP to keep him neutralized. Don't expect a big game out of him. Hernandez will set up alongside Matt Light to provide help on Osi. The tight end help will keep the big name pass rushers out of the backfield for the most part. Justin Tuck scares me the most coming up the middle on Dan Conolly who is filling in for the injured Dan Koppen. I see the Brady having much more time than he had in 2007 and being able to connect with his receivers at will. The Giants don't have any linebackers that can run with Hernandez, and nobody that can match up with Gronk if he is healthy enough to participate in the passing game. Welker will rack up the yardage as usual against the Giants and have the biggest game for the Pats. Green-Ellis will set up the pass perfectly with his between the tackles running, I expect a good game out of him. I see Eli being able to get his yardage and probably complete a few deep balls but its the turnover battle where this game will be won and I see Eli screwing up before Brady does. Wilfork will pressure Eli up the middle forcing him to roll out into the arms of Anderson and Ninkovich.

Brady and Belichick won't let the Patriots lose this game. There is too much riding on it. It would be their 4th title together. It would send Brady into almost unarguable 'greatest of all time' status. A win would also mean so much to this organization and the Kraft family who lost a key contributor and member of their family in Bob Kraft's wife, Myra. She meant so much to him and this team as you can see by the patch they wear in her honor on the left breast. They have to win this game for Myra.

Final Score: Patriots 34 Giants 24

Superbowl MVP: Tom Brady

We can only hope. Win it for MHK boys.

-Zakary 'ZHawk' Hawkins

Did You Hear The Pats Are Playing The Giants This Weekend?

After a brief hiatus from the blogosphere in honor of the Super Bowl week off, ok so maybe I just wasn’t feeling very inspirational at the moment but either way, I’m back and ready to bandy about how I think Super Bowl XLVI between YOUR New England Patriots and the New York Giants will unfold.

If you’re reading this post currently there’s a good chance that you are aware of the fact that the Patriots and Giants squeaked by the Ravens and 49ers, respectively, a week and a half ago in the AFC and NFC Conference championship games. The Pats and Giants wins resulted in a rematch of the infamous Super Bowl XLII tilt. Again as most of you probably know the undefeated, 18-0, Patriots came into that game seeking to become only the second team ever to run the table, along with the ’72 Dolphins right Mercury Morris?, and the first ever team to go 19-0. The Giants came into that Super Bowl led by an enigma at QB who symbolized the entire vibe of that team all year long, a solid ground game, a stellar front four defensively, a coach who defined the word disciplinarian, and an upset of the Green Bay Packers and Brett Favre at Lambeau Field in -23 degree wind chill. Not to reopen old wounds for Patriots fans but we all know how that game turned out: David Tyree made the only catch of his career on his helmet and the Giants ended the Patriots season with a defeat 17-14.

Most of the media figureheads in the past week and a half have been attempting to link the outcome from Super Bowl XLII to a prediction for Super Bowl XLVI and let me tell you right now don’t waste your time. The only bearing that that game from 4 years ago is going to have on this game is that Brady is realizing he might not get many opportunities to be back on the big stage. I don’t think he could care less whether the Pats were going to be play the 49ers or the Giants all he seems focused on is tying Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw at 4 rings apiece. That would move him permanently into the pantheon of winners with the ability to possible reach the summit and be crowned as the winnest QB ever. On the line for Eli Manning is the possibility to grab his 2^nd ring, one more than his much more lauded older brother Peyton has, and pour a little more concrete mix on his candidacy for Canton and football immortality. I think if he can take down the Patriots for the 2^nd time on football’s biggest stage he’ll stand a pretty damn good chance of getting elected into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. But enough about the QBs and their legacies lets take a look at what I think are the major keys to this game (in no particular order I’m just working stream of conciousness over here):

How effective will the Giants vaunted front 4 be against the Patriots solid offensive line and subsequently how well will the Giants Swiss cheese offensive line be able to slow down Vince Wilfork? To me personally the biggest wildcard in this game is Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP had a year for the ages racking up 80 tackles from the DE position to go along with 16.5 sacks. When he came out of college he was labeled as a very raw talent who didn’t start playing football until he was 16 and in just two years he’s morphed into possibly the premier defensive lineman in football behind maybe only Jared Allen out in Minnesota. His athleticism is unreal and makes Jevon Kearse (the original freak) look like a slouch. He is the key to whether or not Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck are matched up one-on-one with an opportunity to disrupt the Patriots horizontal passing attack. If the Patriots are forced to constantly double team JPP or run plays away from his side because he’s wreaking mass quantities of havoc then the Giants stand a good chance of holding the Patriots offense to a score far south of 30.

On the other side of the coin though is the beast Vince Wilfork. He singlehandedly won that game for the Patriots against the Ravens by making 8 or 9 plays that made your jaw hit the floor with his ability to occupy two sometimes three blockers and STILL get to the ballcarrier in the backfield or grab a hold of QB Joe Flacco. When Wilfork gets playing like that it’s easy to see why he’s considered one of the elite defensive lineman in football. He’s an absolute load and I don’t see David Baas who got injured against the 49ers and will not be 100% being able to slow him down for very long. The rest of the Patriots defensive line is also quite underrated from Brandon Deaderick to Kyle Love. The matchup in the trenches will, like it usually does, play a major role in the outcome of this game. I’d give an edge to the Patriots slightly due to the Giants porous offensive line.

The next key is will Rob Gronkowski be ‘The Gronk’ or will he be more of a decoy? Don’t read into the fact that he hasn’t practice yet since the AFC Championship game. Belichick knows that his sprained ankle needs maximum time to heal and it’s not like Gronkowski doesn’t know the offense or hasn’t gotten enough reps throughout the year. He’ll be fine mentally, well as fine as Gronk can be mentally, on Sunday the real question is what form of Gronk are we going to see? The beast who set a single season record for TDs and receiving yards by a TE or an injured decoy who has to leave all the production to the TE position to come from Aaron Hernandez? Hernandez getting all the production isn’t a bad alternative since he’s a matchup nightmare but he’s made that much more effective by Gronk’s ability to run the seam route to perfection. Gronkowski opens up the underneath for Welker and Hernandez to do what they do best and that’s get yards after the catch. Gronk is also Tom Brady’s binky. When things get tough he knows he can just lob it up to the physical phenom at TE and he’ll reel it in 95% of the time and if not it’ll fall incomplete. Gronkowski is on pair with Pierre-Paul physically in that he has revolutionized how people look at the TE position. He can stay in as a mauler on the offensive line due to his size being equivalent to that of a tackle but he can also run good routes and has the hands of wide receiver. The Patriots need at least 85% of the Gronkowski they had during the regular season if they want to be able to put up big numbers against the Giants. The Patriots passing attack is predicated on Gronkowski stretching the field somewhat vertically to allow the little guys to work underneath. I also believe that it’ll be imperative for Deion Branch to look like the Deion Branch of old and help pick up some of the slack that’s bound to occur with Gronkowski’s ankle injury. Branch is more than capable of snagging 5 or 6 balls for 80 to 90 yards and helping keep the Giants defense honest.

The last key to the matchup that I’m going to discuss before throwing out a final score prediction is whether or not Belichick truly plans to use the same philosophy on the Giants offense as he did against the Rams ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ offense back in February 2002. In that game Belichick basically instructed his defensive backs to mug the Rams receivers at the line and for his LBs and Ss to punish Marshall Faulk every time he touched the ball. The Giants are built somewhat similar to that 2002 version of the Rams with Eli Manning having a career year throwing the ball to his All-Pro and breakout of the year #1 WR Victor Cruz and #1a Hakeem Nicks. The Giants don’t run the ball extremely well but Brandon Jacobs is a bruiser who can wear the defense and Ahmad Bradshaw is a good slasher out of the backfield who is dangerous as a receiver.

Belichick stated in an interview over the weekend that he intended to use the likes of Julian Edelman to attempt to disrupt the Giants wide receivers at the line with his CBs actually playing the safety position per se picking up the wide out after they’ve been bumped at the line. It’s an interesting strategy to put the physical safeties, or in Edelman’s case Jack of all trades, up at the line to disrupt the receivers and then allow the corners who can’t beat either wideout in a foot race to pick up the slack and cover them the rest of the way downfield. If Cruz and Nicks are allowed to run free off the line of scrimmage and head downfield then I think the Patriots defense is in for a tough battle. The Giants receiving corps is a much more potent unit then the one the Patriots faced in 2008 and if they are given the chance Eli and Company will prove it on Super Sunday. I am a fan of the idea of the Patriots attempting to rough up the Giants slippery wide receivers because I think it’s a better strategy then allowing Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty to attempt to lockdown Cruz and Nicks when we all know they won’t be getting much help from the safety position. Patrick Chung is a run stopper not a coverage guy and the other safety position is a revolving door of guys who can’t cover. In my book physical is the way to go against this Giants attack.

Final Prediction for the game: Patriots 31, Giants 24

I think they Patriots are going to be able to exact some revenge, more for the fans than for themselves considering almost the entire team from the 18-1 season is gone, and put up over 30 on the Giants shaky at times brilliant at others defense. In my mind 30 is the key if the Patriots score over 30 I think they’ve got it in the bag if they are held south of that number then you may just see the Giants upset the Pats, though most people in New York seem to think a Patriots win would be an upset, for the 2^nd time in 4 years. Expect offense folks and for the Patriots not to allow the Giants front four to pressure Tom Brady nearly as much in the ‘rematch’ allowing him to have a big day and claim that 4^th Super Bowl ring. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

The NFL Final Four

And then there were four…

The NFL season has been going on now for a calm, cool 18 weeks and week 19 is here to determine who will square off in the big one: the Super Bowl at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The conference championship games will be played this Sunday with the AFC pitting the Baltimore Ravens against the New England Patriots and the NFC showcasing the New York Giants at the San Francisco 49ers at 3 and 6:30 PM, respectively. The games will be taking place as far away as possible with the Patriots and 49ers playing host to some hostile guests. Since there are only two matchups on the docket for this weekend each blogger has provided not only a pick of who will win each game but a score as well for all you degenerate gamblers out there wondering whether or not to take the points or the over/under. The favorites will have the amount they favored by in parentheses with the over/under being listed below.

(2) Baltimore Ravens at (1) New England Patriots (-7.5) Over/Under: 50.5 pts

This game is a rematch of the 2009 playoff matchup that sent the Patriots into their two-year playoff-losing spiral. The Ravens drubbed the Pats 33-14 with Ray Rice setting the pace early by scampering for a 83-yard TD run on the first play from scrimmage. It only got worse from their for the hometown Patriots as Tom Terrific only completed about half his passes for 154 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs. Joe Flacco only completed 4 passes for 34 yards on that fateful day but it didn’t matter as Ray Rice ran for 159 yards on 22 carries and 2 of the Ravens 4 TDs on the ground. One major factor that people tend to forget about that horrific loss by the Patriots is that Wes Welker didn’t play in that game after blowing out his ACL during a meaningless week 17 matchup with the Houston Texans. The Patriots were a one-dimensional team then and they are now but without Welker they couldn’t even be one-dimensional.

What does that playoff defeat by the Patriots have to do with the week’s matchup? Well, it has a good amount to do with it because I’m sure that stinging defeat is going to be fresh in the minds of multiple Patriots who were embarrassed on their home field by a very similar Ravens team only two years ago.  Tom Brady is a man on a mission right now knowing that if he can get back to the Super Bowl and win it that’ll put him in the upper echelon of the all time great QBs along with the only other two men to win 4 Super Bowls: Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw. Brady is fully aware of his legacy and knows that he has a chance to do something few others have ever had the chance of doing. If he can win on Sunday and propel his team to the Super Bowl he’ll be making his 5th Super Bowl start in a 10-year period. The only other person who has made 5 Super Bowl starts is John Elway and he did that over a 12-year period. Brady has a chance to cement his place in the pantheon of great QBs and I don’t see him letting an aging but still dangerous Ravens defense stand in his way.

For the Ravens the key is taking Hernandez out of the game. With his newfound skills as a running back Hernandez has become even more of a dynamic threat. Hernandez has become the absolute matchup nightmare for defensive coordinators between his ability to lineup in the backfield, run like a wide receiver, and muscle defenders off the ball like a tight end a la Gronk. He is the perfect complement to both Gronkowski and Wes Welker. The Ravens are exceptional at stopping the run thanks to a solid linebacking corps and the two-headed monster up front of Haloti Ngata and Cory Redding. In the passing game however the Ravens defense isn’t as formidable as past years. The cornerback position has become somewhat of a revolving door with LaDarius Webb being the only recognizable name and at safety Ed Reed still is a ball hawk like no other but he isn’t the same Ed Reed as two years ago. Injuries to his hips and ankles have helped slow him a little bit. Don’t underestimate this group though they can still hold any offense under 24 points and keep the offense in the ballgame. Speaking of the offense…

The Ravens offense starts and ends with Ray Rice. He’s the team’s leading rusher and leading pass catcher. For all the things Joe Flacco isn’t the one thing he can most certainly do is throw the ball deep to rookie WR Torrey Smith. Smith hauled in 7 TD receptions this year and they were all of the long bomb variety. Anquan Boldin is still a threat that needs close monitoring between the 20s but he isn’t much of a red zone threat. If TEs Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta sit down in the soft spots in the zone and make catches they can cause some problems too but in the end it all comes down to Rice. It’s up to the Patriots patchwork defense to keep Rice from grounding and pounding them into the ground and working the clock against the Patriots. If Rice and the Ravens can get some traction early and keep the ball out of Brady’s hands while putting up some points then the home team could be in for a long dog fight. This ballgame will come down to who can contribute more on the offensive side of the ball: Ray Rice or Tom Brady.

Picks: Geoff – NE 31-17, Norton – NE 27-17, Lang – NE 35-17, ZHawk – NE 34-21

(4) New York Giants at (2) San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) Over/Under: 42 pts

In the nightcap the New York GMen will be making the long cross-country flight out to the city of hills San Francisco. To no surprise to any football fan out there the Giants for like the 10th consecutive season did their best to be named football’s Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde. You never know what you’re going to get from them when they step on the football field. Are they the team that unseated the number one seed and overwhelming favorite 15-1 Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field or the squad that got blown out much worse than the score shows in a 23-10 home game against the ghastly Washington Redskins? The Giants had an up and season to say the least finishing at 9-7 scraping into the playoffs as the NFC East champion after the Cowboys shit the bed down the stretch. The Giants started 6-2 after beating the Patriots in Foxboro then fell to 7-7 after the abysmal loss to the ‘Skins and now are slight favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (bettors side note: though the 49ers are ‘favored’ by 2.5 pts that technically means the Giants are favored by a half a point because every home team is generally given a 3 point cushion at home).

The 49ers on the other hand have been the model of consistency all year long. They were 6-2 on the road, 7-1 at home. They won blowouts and they won close games that came down to the wire. They’ve won ball games by playing stellar defense against both the run and the pass, they didn’t give up their first rushing TD on the year until week 17, and hoarding the ball on offense while allowing David Akers to kick mass quantities of field goals. For the most part the 49ers don’t put up big points with QB Alex Smith going from bust to turnover free game manager this year basically working carefully between the 20s. Their biggest threats on the offensive side of the ball are RB Frank Gore, when he’s healthy, WR Michael Crabtree, whose really come on as of late, and physical freak TE Vernon Davis. Davis was a force to be reckoned with against the Saints last week and if he can play like that again this week then watch out below Giants’ fans. If the 49ers get the ground game working early and open up some holes for Smith to pick apart a decimated Giants secondary it could be a good day for 49ers fans to start dreaming of a trip to Indianapolis, never thought I’d ever say anyone is ‘dreaming’ of Indianapolis but this year all four of these teams are.

The key to this game for most people though is, again, what version of the Giants is going to walk out onto the field Sunday evening (afternoon out west) at Candlestick Park? If the Giants team that has been steamrolling through the playoffs shows up the 49ers defense better be their usual dominant selves or else the Niners’ offense is going to be forced into a shootout for the second straight week. They barely survived last week against the ultimate track meet champion New Orleans Saints and I don’t know if rookie coach Jim Harbaugh has enough bullets in the chamber to succeed two weeks in a row by deviating so far from the teams typical game plan. The Giants have been a team en fuego as of late with Eli Manning slinging the ball to all his weapons the past few weeks and watching teams struggle to decide which one of his weapons to leave single covered. WR Hakeem Nicks has shown up in a big way helping out breakout star WR Victor Cruz. The key to the Giants playoff offense however has been RB Ahmad Bradshaw who was running with abandon early in the year only to be sidelined for a few weeks due to a broken foot. Now that he’s back and being the dynamic guy he can be, he carried my fantasy team on more than one occasion this year, it has allowed RB Brandon Jacobs to go back to doing what he does best, which is be a change of pace back and wear down the defensive line. The 49ers are great run stuffers but if the thunder and lightning tandem of Bradshaw and Jacobs can soften them up at all it’ll open up the back end for Manning whose had a career year. This year he got smarter with the ball and has done a much better job at finding the open receiver not just his favorite receiver.

Defensively it’s pretty easy to see what the Giants game plan is. Stop the run and then allow their stable of unreal pass rushers to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. If they can stand up Gore and RB Kendall Hunter at the line and force the Niners to the air then their trio of rushers can do what they do best: get after the QB. The emergence of DE Jason Pierre-Paul as one of the most dynamic rushers in the league has allowed DEs Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck to be freed up a little more and get more opportunities at taking down the quarterback. When all three of them are in the game the offensive line is forced to single cover one of them making him look like Deacon Jones due to each ones abilities to win a one-on-one matchup with a left or right guard every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Key for the 49ers offense then becomes clear: get the running game going early, score touchdown and don’t kick field goals, and force the Giants great pass rush to stay honest against the run game. For the Giants it’s simple but oh so complicated for them to do on a consistent basis: show up.

Picks: Geoff – SF 23-21, Norton – SF 14-10, Lang – SF 27-17, ZHawk – SF 21-17

There you have it loyal readers a long drawn out and theory breakdown of both the AFC and NFC conference championship matchups. If you’re a gambling man I’d say you can take the Views from the Couch picks to the bank and if not enjoy the games this weekend gentleladies and men. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

NFL Conference Semifinals Here We Come

Last week’s NFL Wild Card round provided a one close matchup and three blowouts, not exactly the most exciting Wild Card weekend I’ve ever seen. The one close matchup though featured two of the NFL’s most controversial quarterbacks in Ben ‘Rapelisberger’ Roethlisberger and Tim ‘The Voice of Christ’ Tebow. The Broncos played the game in reverse order of how they’ve been winning during the regular season by jumping on the Steelers early and then fumbling away a lead late allowing the Big Raper to bring back the Steel Curtain and send the game to OT. He forgot one thing though that on the other sideline Tebow Time was getting ready to make his playoff OT debut. One play in OT, one TD, one Broncos win. Off to New England for a date with the top seeded Patriots for the Tebow show. Man another blog about the NFL and again I’ve managed to allow Tebow to devour my entire first paragraph, oh well he’s a polarizing guy but anywho moving on.

In the other three games the enigmatic Giants easily dispatched the Falcons 24-2, the Texans ran by the Bengals 31-10 for their first franchise postseason win, and the Saints went aerial against the Lions for a final score of 45-28. That leaves us with the following matchups going into the Conference Semifinals: (3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers and the (4) New York Giants at (1) Green Bay Packers in the NFC with (3) Houston Texans at (2) Baltimore Ravens and (4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots. The chalk reigned supreme in the Wild Card round for the first time in a while leading to 4 darn good matchups this weekend. Let’s take a look at each matchup individually and then give you each View from the Couch bloggers picks.

NFC

(3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers

The Saints have been hotter than Gisele Bundchen in the past 6 weeks or so with Drew Brees leading the track meet. Their opponent this week, the 49ers, started off strong and stayed strong throughout the entire regular season behind first year head coach Jim Harbaugh and reinvented former #1 overall pick QB Alex Smith. The 49ers adopted a ground and pound approach for this year and it has paid huge dividends leading to a 13-3 record and first round bye. The Saints have an identical 13-3 record but win thru the air not on the ground and in the trenches like the 49ers. The outcome of this game will be determined by whether or not the 49ers can do enough to slowdown the Saints prolific offense. If the Saints can get into the 30s the 49ers will have trouble keeping pace. If the 49ers can keep the Saints in the low 20s however and use Frank Gore, depending on if the healthy Frank Gore shows up, to grind out the clock and put some points on the board at the end of long drawn out drives. Smith isn’t designed to lead a team on a comeback so that’s probably out of the equation. Get ahead early and stay there is the 49ers game plan.

PICKS: Geoff, ZHawk, Lang: NO, Norton: SF

(4) New York Giants at (1) Green Bay Packers

This is a matchup of the Week 13 show down when the Giants nearly knocked off the then undefeated Packers 38-35. The difference is this matchup is in Lambeau instead of at home for the GMen and the GMen also lost their only remaining corner with a pulse in Aaron Ross. The Packers finished the regular season 15-1 with their only blemish coming to a Chiefs team who had no business ruining their perfect regular season. They are led by All World QB Aaron Rodgers (Who’s Brett Favre again?) and a lethal receiving corps. Defensively the Packers have multiple playmakers in OLB Clay Matthews, DT BJ Raji, and CB Charles Woodson but that didn’t stop the Packers from holding down the 32^nd ranked pass defense. That’s good news for the Giants who despite running for 172 yards last week against the Falcons are a pass first team led by Eli Manning who had a career year. The Giants will go as far as Manning and his right arm can take them. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks should present some problems for the Packers secondary but the key to the Giants passing game is going to be their embattled offensive lines ability to keep the Packers rushers at bay. Offensively for the Packers the key will be getting the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hand early thus negating the Giants stellar pass rush. If the Packers can do that and jump out to an early lead they should have no problem coasting to the Conference Finals. If the Giants on the other hand can get after Rodgers and disrupt his rhythm and timing then ladies and gentleman we’ve got a battle royale on our hands.

PICKS: Geoff, Lang: GB, Norton, ZHawk: NYG

AFC

(3) Houston Texans at (2) Baltimore Ravens

The vaunted AFC North put three teams into the playoffs but only one of them will be playing this weekend: the Baltimore Ravens who had a bye and didn’t have the opportunity to lose last weekend like the Steelers and Bengals. The Ravens earned the AFC North crown and their first round bye and thus get the beat up Texans at home in round 2. The Texans continued their season of firsts for the franchise by getting their first postseason victory during the season when they recorded their first winning record, their first division title, and first postseason appearance. Much of those firsts can be attributed to the emergence of a topflight defense led by great coordinator horrible head coach Wade Phillips. Phillips has turned around the league’s worst defense and made it a top 5 difference-making defense. It also doesn’t hurt to have a guy who is running like his hairs on fire (that one’s for you Richard Pryor) Arian Foster who racked up 154 yards and 2 TDs against a good Bengals defense. The biggest problem the Texans will have in this rematch from earlier in the year when Foster only ran for 64 yards on 15 carries is that T.J. Yates is your starting quarterback. You’re talking about a 3^rd string rookie quarterback on the road. Yates is going to have to throw the ball around a little bit because you know Baltimore is going to stack the box against the run and shade all coverage towards Andre Johnson. The Ravens as always have a strong defense though it’s getting older I expect they’ll do a good job bottling up Yates. Offensively the Ravens will only go as far as Ray Rice can carry them. QB Joe Flacco has been a lightning rod for criticism because a lot of people feel he hasn’t taken steps forward but all he needs to do is protect the ball and make sure Ray Rice gets a million touches. If the Texans can get a few turnovers and hold Rice under 100 yards effectively making Flacco beat them deep they have to like their chances. Rookie WR Torrey Smith will also have to have an eye kept on him because he can easily haul in a 65-yard TD and swing the momentum Baltimore’s way. All eyes are on you to make sure that doesn’t happen Jonathan Joseph.

PICKS: Geoff, Norton: HOU, Lang, ZHawk: BAL

(4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots

Another week and another team gets Tebowed. Tebow Time is making its first career appearance in round 2 of the playoffs against the top seeded Patriots. These two teams played in Week 15 at Mile High and the Patriots whooped up on the Broncos 41-23 ending the Broncos 6 game winning streak and sending them into a tailspin to end the season. The Broncos still won the putrid AFC West however and then somewhat shocked the world by sneaking by a decimated Pittsburgh Steelers team in round 1. Tim Tebow only completed 10 passes but managed to rack up 316 yards (204 of them to Demaryious Thomas) and 2 scores. He also rushed the ball 10 times for 50 yards and a score. Tebow and the Broncos have unreal momentum not to mention God on their side but the last time they played the offensive juggernaut Patriots they got dismantled. No the Patriots can’t stop anyone thru the air but luckily for them Tebow can’t hit receivers consistently and that was before he, most likely, lost his top target WR Eric Decker after he got hit hard by James Harrison last week (shocker). In that mid December matchup the Broncos ran the ball in the first quarter for over 160 yards but after that they only managed to rack up 80 yards total in the next 3 quarters. The Broncos also jumped out to an early 16-7 lead only to give up 34 straight points to the Pats. The Patriots are led by two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl Champion QB Tom Brady and the Hoodie. The Patriots are the closest thing to a dynasty that football has seen since the Niners in the late 80s and the Cowboys in the early 90s. Though the Patriots haven’t won a playoff game in 3 years they are focused and ready to derail the Tebow Train and take advantage of their home field advantage throughout. With WR Wes Welker and TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez the Patriots have weapons in all sectors of the field. The emergence of rookie speedster RB Stevan Ridley only adds to Brady’s arsenal. This matchup is a battle of a guy who is riding waves of momentum to this game vs. a quarterback who has seen it all and done it all, and done it well. Unless something crazy happens on Saturday night the Patriots are the stronger team with the more talented roster and appear to have a great shot at moving on to the AFC Conference Final, which would be held at Gillette in Foxboro. The Hoodie is 4-6 lifetime against the Broncos including the playoffs but I don't think he's too worried about that. Before signing off and giving the VfC’s picks on this game I want to mention the Patriots bringing back former coordinator and Broncos coach Josh McDaniels. For anyone who thinks that Belichick did this solely to rattle the Broncos and get a leg up on what they might be thinking about running offensively I have two words for you: grow up. Belichick has never been one to make impulsive moves he brought back McDaniels because the team has heaps of success under his tutelage and with QB Bill O’Brien taking the job at Penn State it made sense to bring back someone who has already had success in the current system.

PICKS: Geoff, Lang, Norton, ZHawk: NE

There you have it folks a breakdown of all 4 matchups that the NFL has to offer this upcoming weekend. The only team that all 4 bloggers agreed would advance appears to be the hometown Patriots. Otherwise we’re all split, which tells me that this matchups are going to be juicy and provide some good entertainment so tune and check em out. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

Fantasy Forum Week 13: Studs/Duds

After a week hiatus due to the Thanksgiving festivities, little bit of Views from the Couch family time if you will, the fantasy forum is back in action for week 13. Week 12 was a doozy with fantasy dud to this point in the season CJ1K going off for 190 yards against the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense and Mark Sanchez torching the Bills atrocious defense for 4 TD’s. Rest assured if there had been a fantasy forum for week 12 they both would’ve been on the studs list. Onto the week 13 studs and duds!

Season: 12-7 (4-3 last week)

STUDS

Tony Romo QB Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals secondary

For four straight weeks Romo has thrown at least 2 TD passes with two 3/0 TD/INT games thrown into the mix. He’s gone off for 20, 22, 23, and 13 points the past four weeks. He threw his only two interceptions during the four game streak against the Dolphins defense on Thanksgiving but the Fins have a very respectable front seven on defense and a solid secondary. The Cardinals have neither an exceptional front seven nor secondary aside from rookie CB Patrick Peterson has made a bigger impact in the return game than on defense I don’t see him being able to slow down Dez Bryant or Laurent Robinson. Speaking of Laurent Robinson that’s 7 TD’s in the past 5 games I see Romo keeping the hot hand alive.

Stats: 323 yards, 3 TDs, 0 Int, 2 rush, 5 yards

Tom Brady QB New England Patriots vs. the NFL’s punching bag Indianapolis Colts

Tom Brady tends to sit in the stud realm on a weekly basis but this week we’re looking at the possibility of 6 TDs throw the air and over 400 yards in about 3 quarters worth of work. The only thing that’s going to slow him down is whether or not Bill Belichick sits Tom early in the game and knowing the Hoodie I don’t think Brady sits until late in the 4^th. He’s never been shy about leaving his superstar QB in late into blowouts and by his own admission Tom Terrific doesn’t like leaving games until the clocks read 00:00. Brady is going to go wild and send the Colts to 0-12. ESPN has him projected at 25 but I see that as a little light I’m going over 30 fantasy points.

Stats: 382 yards, 5 TDs, 0 Int

New England Patriots D/ST vs. the Indianapolis ‘Suck for Luck’ Colts offense

Dan Orlovsky, need I say more? Orlovsky is attempting to become the first QB in NFL history to lead TWO teams, the 2008 Detroit Lions and this years Colts, to 0-16 records. I’m pulling for you Danny boy and I hope the Patriots can help you along your trek towards the history books. The last three games the Patriots defense has forced 7 turnovers and allowed 13.0 PPG. They lit up Tyler Palko for 19 points I see them being able to top that this week.

Stats: 193 yards against, 7 points against, 3 sacks, 2 Ints, 2 FumRec, 1 TD

DUDS

Steven Jackson RB St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers #1 run defense

The Rams offense is terrible and it all starts with their horrendous offensive line. A porous offensive line has caused young QB Sam Bradford to take leaps backward after appearing to be a future superstar last year. Bradford and the passing games inefficiency have caused the Rams to lean quite heavily on Jackson. The only problem is that the offensive line isn’t any better at run blocking then it is pass blocking. Jackson had a few very good games against a few subpar run defenses he was held in check the past two weeks as the offense struggled severely to move the ball. A horrible offensive line, an out of sync offense, and a matchup with the 49ers #1 ranked run defense means bad news Bears for our man S-Jax. Its never easy to sit a usually reliable RB but if you have alternatives I’d look their direction.

Stats: 18 carries, 43 yards, 0 TD, 3 rec, 22 yards

Andre Johnson WR Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons pass defense

After a 6 week hiatus one of the top 3 receivers drafted in this years fantasy drafts Johnson was expected by owners to come back last week against the Jaguars and rack up big yards and fantasy points. Wrong. Johnson was targeted only 3 times and reeled in 2 catches for 22 yards. He appeared to be out of rhythm and with the Texans down to third string QB T.J. Yates I don’t see Johnson’s number going up anytime soon. If he can’t reel in a touchdown pass or the Texans don’t find themselves down early I don’t see the Texans abandoning the run and throwing the ball very often. With Arian Foster and Ben Tate the Texans have one of the most potent rushing attacks in the league and they’ll lean on them heavily at the expense of Johnson.

Stats: 3 rec, 36 yards, 0 TDs

C.J. Spiller RB Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans

All the fantasy owners out there that hurried to pick up Spiller after stud RB Fred Jackson went down for the year had to be disappointed in last week’s production. Spiller was handed the starting job against the Jets and subsequently given 22 touches but what he did with those touches wasn’t too encouraging: 19 carries, 55 yards, 3 rec, 15 yards. The Bills drafted Spiller 9^th overall in the 2010 draft under the impression that he was a big play back who could break it on any given play. That hasn’t come to fruition yet and I don’t see it happening this week against a halfway decent Titans defense. He’s going to get upwards of 20 touches but I don’t see him reaching the end zone and in fantasy that’s what gets you points and wins you matchups. Don’t start Spiller.

Stats: 18 carries, 61 yards, 4 rec, 18 yards

There you have it folks week 13’s fantasy forum: studs and duds. Take the advice you’ve been given and start ‘em or sit ‘em. Good luck to all dedicated readers as the fantasy football playoffs creep up next week.  Until we cross paths again…

Geoff Jablonski