2013-2014 Pats Positional Primer: Part 1

How's that for alliteration?

Football season is upon us ladies and gentlemen! The Patriots played their final preseason game tonight and will trim the last fat off of a roster that, in some ways, is much improved over last season. They lost some key players and have made some nice additions to their team that will, in the long term, reap great benefits. Let's take a look at the offensive side of the ball as there were some extremely interesting and controversial signings there.

The average Pats fan will hem and haw, repeatedly about the loss of Wes Welker and how it was a terrible move for the franchise. "Why the hell did they let Welkah, go? I swayah that Belichick is frickin' retahded sometimes." I assure you that's not the case. If Welker's replacement, Danny Amendola, can stay healthy, he will be better than Wes in a lot of ways. He's 27 years old which is 5 years younger than the former slot receiver. He's not listed as being taller than Welker but when you see him on the field, he definitely looks substantially larger in stature than the diminutive #83. He's faster. You can see that he hits his top end speed much quicker than Welker ever did coming out of cuts. He's more elusive than Welker. Hell, as it stands right now he even has better hands than the former Pats receiver as Welker had the sixth most dropped passes in the NFL last season with 9. It's silly to think that Brady and Amendola will have the amazing rapport that Welker and Brady shared right out of the gate but, over time, that may be exactly what they share. It remains to be seen whether or not Danny can stay healthy for an entire NFL season though. Amendola carries the stigma of being a injury prone player but I tend to think that's a little exaggerated considering the freakishness of his injury last season. Danny was forced to have season ending clavicle surgery last season after breaking it in a game and having the clavicle pop inward instead of outward which caused it to come within millimeters of puncturing his trachea and aorta. The jury is still out as we move into the final week of the preseason but if all things go as we hope they will, Amendola will be a huge contributor right out of the gate as the Patriots number 1 receiving target.

You may have heard, and if you haven't then I may ask if you've been living under a rock all summer, that the Patriots signed quarterback Tim Tebow this off season. So many people make a huge deal over this signing because of who he is and the media circus that he brings to the team. In reality, he's nothing more than a third string quarterback who will never see any time on the field this season. No, they aren't going to create a separate playbook to incorporate him into the offense. For all you people that think they are going to draw up trick plays for him and he's going to see some time on the field. That's just not going to happen. The Pats aren't going to waste valuable practice time, and take time away from Brady's preparation, so they can work this guy into the offense. At MOST, he'll help the team in practice prepare for scrambling quarterbacks when they have one coming up on the schedule. He'll sit on the bench, probably pray a couple times a game and get way more camera time than he deserves. I'm not by any means a Tebow apologist as I think that there are probably 20 or more free agent quarterbacks that could come in right now and be a more productive backup than him. Who knows, this may be one of those pride moves for Belichick where he wants to prove he can make something of a man that nobody else could. I just don't think it's worth crucifying (see what I did there?) Belichick over. If I've learned anything over the years, it's that I trust the man in charge. (Note that as I write this, there is a very good chance that Tebow could be cut before the season begins next Sunday)

As we're coming out of preseason I've been thinking about who the key contributors at every position will be and what the depth charts will look like heading in to the season. Offensively this is how I see things shaking out.

Quarterback: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallet, Tim Tebow
Tom Brady is Tom Brady. The guy is coming off of one of his best seasons he's ever had throwing for 4,827 yards, 34 touchdowns and a sterling 8 interceptions. The guy is like a fine wine. He get's better with age. This season will certainly have a learning curve in the early stages with all the new faces Tom will be throwing to but once they get some games under their belt, expect much of the same from Brady and the Pats. If we've learned anything from him in the past, Tom Brady makes it work regardless of who he is throwing the ball to and in most cases, he makes the players he's throwing to look like All-Pros. This is a make or break season for Ryan Mallet. He's not going to get many glimpses of game action unless, God forbid, Brady goes down for some reason, so it'll be hard to evaluate exactly how the 3rd year backup has progressed. He has been mentioned by many media outlets as a guy that could be traded for by a team that needs a starting quarterback and I'm not exactly sure he proved he can come in a be that guy for a team.
Brady projected stat line: 4,650 yds, 38 TDs, 10 INT
Mallet projected stat line: Let's hope he doesn't have one

Offensive line: LT Nate Solder, LG Logan Mankins, C Ryan Wendell, RG Dan Connolly, RT Sebastian Vollmer
Not much has changed here. Third year man Nate Solder is protecting Brady's blindside for a second straight season. You didn't hear a whole lot about him last year and I guess that's a good thing considering it means he wasn't doing anything wrong. He was sound and athletic on the edge, and much improved from his rookie season. He'll look to build on that this year. Mankins is the quintessential guard. An absolute mauler who loves nothing more than smashing the face of the defender in front of him. He's the unquestioned leader of this line and provides excellent pass and run support. An important cog in this offensive line is Vollmer. When he's healthy, he's one of the best right tackles in the NFL, but he seems to be one of those guys who always contracts a nagging injury that keeps him out way longer than you think it should. If this line can stay healthy, it will continue the trend of being one of the top 5 offensive lines in the NFL.

Running backs: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, LeGarrette Blount, Leon Washington, Brandon Bolden
Ridley is entering his third NFL season and his second as the feature back of this offense. He broke out last season amassing 1,263 rushing yards, 18 total touchdowns and a 4.4 yards per carry average. He's not overly flashy but he proved last year he's someone whom you can give the ball to consistently between the tackles on first and second down and will take care of the football. Shane Vereen is one of my key players to watch this year. Danny Woodhead was shown the door in free agency as he bolted to the Chargers and Vereen will fill his spot as the third down, pass catching back seamlessly. Vereen has the skillset to be a weapon out of the backfield and make you forget Danny Woodhead was even a human. Vereen has exceptional hands and top end speed making him a huge asset in the passing game and a player that Brady will look to often. Blount adds an interesting wrinkle into the Pats running game as he's something they haven't really had in the past few seasons; a real power back. Blount is a monster of a running back and hardly ever gets taken down by the first tackler. He'll be used in short yardage and goal line situations and should be a very useful runner out of the backfield. Washington has the reputation as one of the best kick returners in the NFL and that's mostly where you'll see him used, but don't be surprised if you also see him catching some passes out of the backfield and spelling Shane Vereen.
Ridley projected stat line: 1,215 yds, 10 rushing TDs, 3 receiving TDs 4.6 yards per carry.
Vereen projected stat line: 425 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, 410 receiving yards, 4 receiving TDs
Blount projected stat line: 360 yds, 6 TDs

Wide receivers: Danny Amendola, Kenbrell Thompkins, Julian Edelman, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Matthew Slater
Danny Amendola is going to be the key guy here. As I stated above he is going to be Welker's replacement and even more because I've heard that he'll be lining up a lot outside of the numbers as well as inside, which brings more versatility to his role. He's sure handed and from all accounts a fast learner so I expect him to have a huge season as the Patriots go-to wideout. Rookie Kenbrell Thompkins is a fantastic story. Kenbrell is a former juvenile delinquent and drug dealer who decided to clean his act up, go to the University of Cincinatti and take this football thing seriously. Signed as an undrafted rookie, the six foot receiver has burst on to the scene impressing the coaching staff and hurdling over several other rookies who looked to be ahead of him going into training camp. He's quickly earned the trust of Tom Brady and has had some great games and flashes in the preaseason which lead me to believe he'll be the wide receiver lining up on the outside opposite Danny Amendola. Julian Edelman will see a huge amount of time in the slot and be the shifty, run after the catch receiver we've seen him be in the past. Injury is something Edelman has to avoid this year as Brady will be depending on him more heavily now, than in years past. Aaron Dobson, the Patriots second round draft pick is a 6'3, 210 lb specimen at the wide receiver spot. He has freakish hands and leaping ability that will undoubtedly make for some highlight reel catches this year, much like this one from his senior year at Marshall: "The Catch". He could very well finish this season as the second or third best wide receiver on the team. Josh Boyce is a strong, compact rookie wideout from TCU who can come in and do some special things in this offense. He provides the team something they have lacked in recent years, a guy with 4.30 speed that can get down the field. I expect him to be utilized on a lot of deep routes, and screen passes as he can be dangerous after the catch in the open field.
Amendola projected stat line: 89 rec, 1,100 yds, 6 TDs
Kenbrell Thompkins: 56 rec, 840 yds, 5 TD
Julian Edelman: 50 rec, 660 yds, 3 TD
Aaron Dobson: 40 rec, 520 yds, 4 TD
Josh Boyce: 35 rec, 410 yds, 3 TD

Tight Ends: Rob Gronkowski, Jake Ballard, Zach Sudfeld
The legend of Gronk continues on to another season. Unfortunately this season it begins with Gronk sidelined as he recovers from a broken wrist and offseason back surgery. When he returns, you should expect him to quickly take back his role as the best tight end in all of football. Maybe not right away, but the man is a freak of nature and I wouldn't put anything past him. To start the season, you'll see a lot of Jake Ballard and Zach Sudfeld. Ballard was an up and coming TE for the Giants before tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl against the Patriots which put an abrupt halt to his development. He has good hands an athleticism for a guy that stands at 6'7 and is also proficient in the blocking game. Sudfeld is a very interesting prospect. From what I've seen so far he has a lot of the unteachable tools that Gronk has on the field. He's extremely athletic and adjusts very well in the air to make difficult catches look easy. Also, much like Gronk, he is very strong in the blocking game and will be a huge contributor in that area of the game as that's one of the best ways to get on Belichick's good side.
Gronkowski projected stat line: 50 rec, 700 yds, 5 TD
Ballard projected stat line: 30 rec, 290 yds, 2 TD
Zach Sudfeld: 30 rec, 350 yds, 3 TD

If all goes according to plan, and it rarely does, that's how I see it playing out. Obviously injuries, cuts, and whatnot will follow this final preseason game but I think this offense, while slightly young and inexperienced, has the potential to do some special things. It may take them a couple weeks to get into the full swing of things, but I would expect them to be the same high octane offense they usually are and put up 30+ points a game. They could possibly be a little more run oriented than we've seen in the past as they have a pretty special stable of running backs, but overall this offense will be a force to be reckoned with.

Keep your eyes peeled for my next piece where I take a look at the defensive side of the ball and what you should expect from your beloved Patriots in that area.

Be well.

-ZHawk

NFL Conference Semifinals Here We Come

Last week’s NFL Wild Card round provided a one close matchup and three blowouts, not exactly the most exciting Wild Card weekend I’ve ever seen. The one close matchup though featured two of the NFL’s most controversial quarterbacks in Ben ‘Rapelisberger’ Roethlisberger and Tim ‘The Voice of Christ’ Tebow. The Broncos played the game in reverse order of how they’ve been winning during the regular season by jumping on the Steelers early and then fumbling away a lead late allowing the Big Raper to bring back the Steel Curtain and send the game to OT. He forgot one thing though that on the other sideline Tebow Time was getting ready to make his playoff OT debut. One play in OT, one TD, one Broncos win. Off to New England for a date with the top seeded Patriots for the Tebow show. Man another blog about the NFL and again I’ve managed to allow Tebow to devour my entire first paragraph, oh well he’s a polarizing guy but anywho moving on.

In the other three games the enigmatic Giants easily dispatched the Falcons 24-2, the Texans ran by the Bengals 31-10 for their first franchise postseason win, and the Saints went aerial against the Lions for a final score of 45-28. That leaves us with the following matchups going into the Conference Semifinals: (3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers and the (4) New York Giants at (1) Green Bay Packers in the NFC with (3) Houston Texans at (2) Baltimore Ravens and (4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots. The chalk reigned supreme in the Wild Card round for the first time in a while leading to 4 darn good matchups this weekend. Let’s take a look at each matchup individually and then give you each View from the Couch bloggers picks.

NFC

(3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers

The Saints have been hotter than Gisele Bundchen in the past 6 weeks or so with Drew Brees leading the track meet. Their opponent this week, the 49ers, started off strong and stayed strong throughout the entire regular season behind first year head coach Jim Harbaugh and reinvented former #1 overall pick QB Alex Smith. The 49ers adopted a ground and pound approach for this year and it has paid huge dividends leading to a 13-3 record and first round bye. The Saints have an identical 13-3 record but win thru the air not on the ground and in the trenches like the 49ers. The outcome of this game will be determined by whether or not the 49ers can do enough to slowdown the Saints prolific offense. If the Saints can get into the 30s the 49ers will have trouble keeping pace. If the 49ers can keep the Saints in the low 20s however and use Frank Gore, depending on if the healthy Frank Gore shows up, to grind out the clock and put some points on the board at the end of long drawn out drives. Smith isn’t designed to lead a team on a comeback so that’s probably out of the equation. Get ahead early and stay there is the 49ers game plan.

PICKS: Geoff, ZHawk, Lang: NO, Norton: SF

(4) New York Giants at (1) Green Bay Packers

This is a matchup of the Week 13 show down when the Giants nearly knocked off the then undefeated Packers 38-35. The difference is this matchup is in Lambeau instead of at home for the GMen and the GMen also lost their only remaining corner with a pulse in Aaron Ross. The Packers finished the regular season 15-1 with their only blemish coming to a Chiefs team who had no business ruining their perfect regular season. They are led by All World QB Aaron Rodgers (Who’s Brett Favre again?) and a lethal receiving corps. Defensively the Packers have multiple playmakers in OLB Clay Matthews, DT BJ Raji, and CB Charles Woodson but that didn’t stop the Packers from holding down the 32^nd ranked pass defense. That’s good news for the Giants who despite running for 172 yards last week against the Falcons are a pass first team led by Eli Manning who had a career year. The Giants will go as far as Manning and his right arm can take them. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks should present some problems for the Packers secondary but the key to the Giants passing game is going to be their embattled offensive lines ability to keep the Packers rushers at bay. Offensively for the Packers the key will be getting the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hand early thus negating the Giants stellar pass rush. If the Packers can do that and jump out to an early lead they should have no problem coasting to the Conference Finals. If the Giants on the other hand can get after Rodgers and disrupt his rhythm and timing then ladies and gentleman we’ve got a battle royale on our hands.

PICKS: Geoff, Lang: GB, Norton, ZHawk: NYG

AFC

(3) Houston Texans at (2) Baltimore Ravens

The vaunted AFC North put three teams into the playoffs but only one of them will be playing this weekend: the Baltimore Ravens who had a bye and didn’t have the opportunity to lose last weekend like the Steelers and Bengals. The Ravens earned the AFC North crown and their first round bye and thus get the beat up Texans at home in round 2. The Texans continued their season of firsts for the franchise by getting their first postseason victory during the season when they recorded their first winning record, their first division title, and first postseason appearance. Much of those firsts can be attributed to the emergence of a topflight defense led by great coordinator horrible head coach Wade Phillips. Phillips has turned around the league’s worst defense and made it a top 5 difference-making defense. It also doesn’t hurt to have a guy who is running like his hairs on fire (that one’s for you Richard Pryor) Arian Foster who racked up 154 yards and 2 TDs against a good Bengals defense. The biggest problem the Texans will have in this rematch from earlier in the year when Foster only ran for 64 yards on 15 carries is that T.J. Yates is your starting quarterback. You’re talking about a 3^rd string rookie quarterback on the road. Yates is going to have to throw the ball around a little bit because you know Baltimore is going to stack the box against the run and shade all coverage towards Andre Johnson. The Ravens as always have a strong defense though it’s getting older I expect they’ll do a good job bottling up Yates. Offensively the Ravens will only go as far as Ray Rice can carry them. QB Joe Flacco has been a lightning rod for criticism because a lot of people feel he hasn’t taken steps forward but all he needs to do is protect the ball and make sure Ray Rice gets a million touches. If the Texans can get a few turnovers and hold Rice under 100 yards effectively making Flacco beat them deep they have to like their chances. Rookie WR Torrey Smith will also have to have an eye kept on him because he can easily haul in a 65-yard TD and swing the momentum Baltimore’s way. All eyes are on you to make sure that doesn’t happen Jonathan Joseph.

PICKS: Geoff, Norton: HOU, Lang, ZHawk: BAL

(4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots

Another week and another team gets Tebowed. Tebow Time is making its first career appearance in round 2 of the playoffs against the top seeded Patriots. These two teams played in Week 15 at Mile High and the Patriots whooped up on the Broncos 41-23 ending the Broncos 6 game winning streak and sending them into a tailspin to end the season. The Broncos still won the putrid AFC West however and then somewhat shocked the world by sneaking by a decimated Pittsburgh Steelers team in round 1. Tim Tebow only completed 10 passes but managed to rack up 316 yards (204 of them to Demaryious Thomas) and 2 scores. He also rushed the ball 10 times for 50 yards and a score. Tebow and the Broncos have unreal momentum not to mention God on their side but the last time they played the offensive juggernaut Patriots they got dismantled. No the Patriots can’t stop anyone thru the air but luckily for them Tebow can’t hit receivers consistently and that was before he, most likely, lost his top target WR Eric Decker after he got hit hard by James Harrison last week (shocker). In that mid December matchup the Broncos ran the ball in the first quarter for over 160 yards but after that they only managed to rack up 80 yards total in the next 3 quarters. The Broncos also jumped out to an early 16-7 lead only to give up 34 straight points to the Pats. The Patriots are led by two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl Champion QB Tom Brady and the Hoodie. The Patriots are the closest thing to a dynasty that football has seen since the Niners in the late 80s and the Cowboys in the early 90s. Though the Patriots haven’t won a playoff game in 3 years they are focused and ready to derail the Tebow Train and take advantage of their home field advantage throughout. With WR Wes Welker and TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez the Patriots have weapons in all sectors of the field. The emergence of rookie speedster RB Stevan Ridley only adds to Brady’s arsenal. This matchup is a battle of a guy who is riding waves of momentum to this game vs. a quarterback who has seen it all and done it all, and done it well. Unless something crazy happens on Saturday night the Patriots are the stronger team with the more talented roster and appear to have a great shot at moving on to the AFC Conference Final, which would be held at Gillette in Foxboro. The Hoodie is 4-6 lifetime against the Broncos including the playoffs but I don't think he's too worried about that. Before signing off and giving the VfC’s picks on this game I want to mention the Patriots bringing back former coordinator and Broncos coach Josh McDaniels. For anyone who thinks that Belichick did this solely to rattle the Broncos and get a leg up on what they might be thinking about running offensively I have two words for you: grow up. Belichick has never been one to make impulsive moves he brought back McDaniels because the team has heaps of success under his tutelage and with QB Bill O’Brien taking the job at Penn State it made sense to bring back someone who has already had success in the current system.

PICKS: Geoff, Lang, Norton, ZHawk: NE

There you have it folks a breakdown of all 4 matchups that the NFL has to offer this upcoming weekend. The only team that all 4 bloggers agreed would advance appears to be the hometown Patriots. Otherwise we’re all split, which tells me that this matchups are going to be juicy and provide some good entertainment so tune and check em out. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

The Time Has Come: The NFL Playoffs Are Upon Us

The NFL season has come to a close with 12 teams moving on and 20 setting up tee times in south Florida. Here is how the AFC and NFC brackets set up going forward into the Wild Card Weekend:

AFC

1.     New England Patriots (13-3)

2.     Baltimore Ravens (12-4)

3.     Houston Texans (10-6)

4.     Denver Broncos (8-8)

5.     Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

6.     Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)

NFC

1.     Green Bay Packers (15-1)

2.     San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

3.     New Orleans Saints (13-3)

4.     New York Giants (9-7)

5.     Atlanta Falcons (10-6)

6.     Detroit Lions (10-6)

The Patriots, Ravens, Packers, and 49ers will be taking Wild Card Weekend off to party and ‘rest’ while they get ready to defend their turf in round 2. That leaves the other 8 teams across 4 matchups to duke it out for 4 spots in the next round. All the matchups have interesting caveats and are going to be interesting matchups well worth tuning in to. Here at The Couch I’m going to breakdown for you each of those matchups starting in the AFC. Don’t forget all the higher seeds are the home team in the matchups below.

(3) Houston Texans vs. (6) Cincinnati Bengals

This matchup pits two of the leagues top defenses and two rookie quarterbacks against one another. The Texans key acquisition this offseason appears to have been defensive coordinator Wade Phillips who helped turn around the league’s worst pass defense and made it one of the best. Signing #1 corner Jonathan Joseph away from the Bengals didn’t hurt either. Defensively the Bengals have been a revelation a year after being a sieve ranking in the top 10 against both the pass and run. Their forte though is being able to stop the run. This matchup is going to have an immovable object banging up against a giant boulder in the form of the Texans dominant run offense behind all world RB Arian Foster and more than capable backup RB Ben Tate taking on the Bengals stout run defense. If Foster can have a big game, he’s more than capable of putting up 150 yards and 2 scores, it’ll limit the amount of work that 3^rd string rookie QB T.J. Yates needs to do. If Yates can just manage the game and not turn the ball over, he’s only thrown 3 interceptions in the 5 games he’s started, the Texans can let their run game run them right into the AFC semifinals. The Bengals will be leaning on rookie redhead QB Andy Dalton to manage the game and throw a few touchdown’s to last years #4 overall draft pick and absolute beast WR A.J. Green. A low scoring game is probably in the cards.

PICKS: Geoff: Texans, Justin: Texans, Norton: Bengals

(4) Denver Broncos vs. (5) Pittsburgh Steelers

The two quarterbacks in this game have both spent copious amounts of their life under the watchful eye of the media for very different reasons. The Steelers Ben Roethlisberger for not once but twice being accused of raping intoxicated women and the Broncos Tim Tebow for being a devout and extremely vocal soldier in the Army of Christ. How does that relate to this weekend’s matchup in Mile High? It doesn’t at all. Roethlisberger is a two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback who is a top 10 field general when he’s healthy. Key word there: when.  He’s currently not healthy having to sit out week 17 against the Browns, a game the Steelers narrowly squeaked out, with a busted ankle. He says he’ll play this weekend and I don’t doubt him in any way but with RB Rashard Mendenhall being placed on IR this week the Steelers are going into this matchup shorthanded. Luckily for them they drew the weak link in the AFC, the Denver Broncos led by the inconsistent at best Tim Tebow. The Broncos started off 1-4 ditched Kyle Orton as quarterback and inserted Tim Tebow and subsequently won 7 of 8 including 6 in a row but finished the season off headed the wrong direction losing 3 in a row. The Broncos have the NFL’s top ranked running game behind Willis McGahee and Tebow. Tebow can’t throw the ball until the 4^th quarter therefore leaving the Broncos no choice but to run it. The problem with that is that the Steelers are notoriously stingy against the run making this a game where if the Broncos plan to win Tebow’s going to need to throw the pill around a little bit.

PICKS: Geoff: Steelers, Justin: Steelers, Norton: Steelers

Now that we’ve dealt with the two matchups in the AFC let’s take a look at what the NFC has to offer up this weekend.

(3) New Orleans Saints vs. (6) Detroit Lions

The Lions are making their first appearance in the playoffs since the 20^th century, 1999, too bad they are pitted against arguably the NFC’s hottest team. The Saints are buoyed by their juggernaut of an offense led by record setting QB Drew Brees. Brees smashed Dan Marino’s 27-year old single season passing record by close to 400 yards. He broke the record in only his 15^th game and ended up finishing the year with 5,476 yards and led the league in touchdown passes too with 46. The Saints offense finished 1^st in total offense, 1^st in passing offense (obviously), and 6^th in rushing. Their offense has no holes the only problems this team has is on the other side of the ball though the defense gets bailed out on many occasions by the offense’s firepower. Teams are forced to throw early on the Saints because the Saints tend to get out in front early and that allows the secondary to force turnovers. This isn’t a terrible thing for the Lions who are pretty good at throwing the ball themselves. Their third year QB Matthew Stafford finally was healthy for a full year and put up over 5,000 yards and threw for over 40 TDs. The weapon on the Lions offense that the Saints will be hard pressed to stop is WR Calvin Johnson a.k.a. Megatron who finished the year with 1,681 yards receiving and 16 TDs. Look at those numbers again and realize just how good a year he had. Unreal. TE Brandon Pettigrew also grew into his own this year and had 83 recs, 777 yards, and 5 TDs. The Lions don’t have a very good running game but that shouldn’t matter much the Saints are going to turn this thing into a shootout quick. The game will come down to whether or not the Lions can keep pace with the Saints and their up-tempo offense that has been running on all cylinders for 5 weeks or so now.

PICKS: Geoff: Saints, Justin: Saints, Norton: Saints

(4) New York Giants vs. (5) Atlanta Falcons

The final game I’ll be breaking down will be taking place at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands. The Giants are coming into the playoffs after beating the Cowboys 31-14 on Sunday night to snipe the NFC East crown from the ‘Boys. The Giants started off 6-2 fell back to earth but then we’re able to pull it together somewhat down the stretch and win their season finale to get into the playoffs. On the other sideline the Falcons are coming off a somewhat inconsistent season though they appeared to hit their stride towards the end of the year. They are a dangerous team led by QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, and rookie burner WR Julio Jones. Their defense is very stout against the run giving up only 97 yards a game and their pass defense does a pretty good job not giving up too many big plays. They have a solid pass rush behind DE John Abraham. Playing outside of the dome in the cold New York weather won’t be easy however and Ryan won’t have a lot of time to throw the ball either against the Giants vaunted pass rush led by DE Jason Pierre-Paul and DE Osi Umenyiora. Don’t forget about DE Justin Tuck either who’s had a rough year but is always capable of taking over a game. Pierre-Paul had a breakout year registering 16.5 sacks. The Giants secondary is beat up down to their third string in a few spots but luckily for them their rushers’ ability to disrupt the pocket has made it easier for the corners and safeties. 

Offensively the Giants are extremely one-dimensional but that hasn’t been such a bad thing considering Eli Manning backed up all the preseason talk he threw around by putting up just south of 5,000 yards (4,933) and 29 TDs with only 16 interceptions compared to 25 INTs last year. The running game has been brutal due to multiple injuries on the offensive line and a broken foot for starting RB Ahmad Bradshaw. The Giants are gaining just under 90 yards a game on the ground but as long as the running game can be a show me pitch and give Eli a little bit of room to throw then the Giants have a shot. The Giants are also armed with a two-headed receiving monster in Victor Cruz, UMass shoutout, and Hakeem Nicks. Cruz came out of nowhere this year to set a Giants single season receiving yards record with 1,536 yards. Nicks missed a few games but still managed to rack up 1,192 yards. The Giants can throw the ball and their matchup with the Falcons pass defense will probably define the game. If the G Men can’t throw the ball expect the Falcons to run away early if they can throw the ball against the Falcons then I like their odds of hanging with the Dirty Birds.

PICKS: Geoff: Falcons, Justin: Giants, Norton: Giants

That’s it for Wild Card Weekend in the NFL; take these picks to the bank at your own risk. Check back next week for a breakdown of the AFC/NFC 2^nd round matchups. Unit we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

NFL Playoff Picture Getting Clearer: AFC Breakdown

We’re now through 12 weeks and the playoff race in the AFC has started to take a more definitive shape. There are 9 teams vying for 6 spots, the cutoff is the Bills at 10 so sorry Buffalo but losing 4 in a row and your top offensive player in Fred Jackson doesn’t allow you to be vying for a playoff spot anymore. Of those 9 teams the Bengals, Broncos, and Titans all appear to shift from week to week on whether they are pretenders or contenders. I know that Denver starts Tim Tebow at quarterback and shouldn’t really be in this conversation but there’s not much else to say other than he’s 5-1 as a starter and the team, mostly the defense, rallies around him more and more each week. They can’t score a lick and I’m pretty sure John Fox has Tebow running a dumbed down version of the offense from “Football for Dumbies” but a win is a win. Back to the subject at hand this isn’t going to be a rant or rave about Tim Tebow but a look at all the teams, here is how the AFC top 9 line up currently:

1. Houston Texans (8-3)
2. New England Patriots (8-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (8-3)
4. Oakland Raiders (7-4)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
7. New York Jets (6-5)
8. Denver Broncos (6-5)
9. Tennessee Titans (6-5)

Now let’s break these standings down and I’m going to throw at you how I think this race is going to shake out.

You are seeing straight that is the Houston Texans sitting in the top slot. A franchise that has never had a winning record is currently your number one seed though I see that changing in the near future with the news that Matt Leinart is out for the year and the team just signed Jake “Day Light Come And I Wanna” Delhomme. The Texans are still going to win the weak AFC South but I don’t see them holding onto the top spot over the likes of the Patriots and Steelers. They’ll settle in nicely to the 3 seed ahead of the (spoiler alert!) AFC West champion Oakland Raiders. The other shoo-ins as far as this blogger is concerned are the Patriots, Ravens, and Steelers. Those three teams know how to win when the mercury drops below 32 and the calendar turns to January, I don’t see that changing this year. All three sit at 8-3 with each having the possibility of running the table. The Patriots play an extremely weak schedule the last 5 weeks of the year so I see them penciling in as the 1 seed with a 13-3 final tally. The Steelers and Ravens will battle it out for the other bye and the 2 seed. I’m going to lean towards the Ravens since they’ve already beaten the Steelers twice thus owning the tiebreaker. All they have to do is play the Steelers even down the stretch and they get the coveted bye through the wildcard weekend. Steelers will finish either 12-4 or 11-5 securing themselves the 5 seed behind the 4 division winners. Between the Patriots, Ravens, Texans, and Steelers that’s four spots out of six locked down let’s take a peek at who might grab those final two openings.

Handicapping The Rest of the Field

We’ve now decided the definite lets look at who’s left and who is going to punch a ticket to the dance and who’s going to be left out in the cold. I’m going to eliminate the Tennessee Titans from the race right off the bat. CJ1K has been a ghost all year and has only had two really good games all year and they came against the porous run defenses of the Tampa Bay Bucs and Carolina Panthers. Against everyone else he’s struggled to break the 40-yard mark while Matt Hasselbeck has been firing off interceptions like it’s going out of style. They still have games against the Saints and Texans left I don’t see them cracking the 10 wins it takes to even sniff the playoffs. Titans are off the list.

Next team up that I’m going to eliminate is those pesky Denver Broncos. There hasn’t been a simpler offense run in the NFL since the ball was oval shaped and passing was considered awkward at best. The Broncos beat the Chiefs a few weeks ago after attempting only 8 passes, completing 2, and running the ball 55 times. This week they beat the free falling Chargers in OT with Tebow completing 9-18 and running the ball over 20 times. I personally fall under the belief that it’s more of an indictment on the Chargers and Chiefs not playing well than the belief that this high school option offense will have continued success at the NFL level. There’s a reason that option quarterbacks don’t transition from college to the pros if they did the quarterbacks of Army, Navy, and the Air Force would all be top 10 picks. Tebow is winning now but teams will realize he’s not a threat to pass the ball effectively and the magic will run out. Broncos land on the outside looking in.

Eliminating the Broncos means that I’m crowning the Oakland Raiders the AFC West champions as I mentioned a few paragraphs above. The Raiders have actually been playing halfway decent with Carson Palmer steering the ship and Michael Bush picking up the slack while Run DMC’s foot heals. When the Raiders get him back and have their entire WR corps healthy the Raiders will stand a punchers chance moving forward. They can hold off the Broncos and their Tebowing. They’re in as AFC West champions and the 4 seed.

Then there were two…the current 6 seed Cincinnati Bengals and the 7 seed New York Jets. It kills me to say this as a diehard Pats fan but I’m going to concede the 6 seed to the Jets in the end. They have an easier schedule down the stretch than the Bengals and though Mark Sanchez has done nothing to show he has a semblance of consistency he’s been to the AFC Championship game twice and can somewhat handle playing under stress. The Bengals are lead by a rookie quarterback who has exceeded all expectations in the redheaded fireball Andy Dalton. Dalton has had an extraordinary season by all accounts but I don’t think he can beat the Texans, Steelers and Ravens down the stretch while the Jets get the likes of the Redskins, Chiefs, reeling Eagles, Giants, and Dolphins. The Jets have a pretty good shot at winning out whereas the Bengals would do well to win 2 out of 3 of those games, their other two games are against the Rams and Cardinals I’m going to chalk those up as W’s. The Bengals have had a much better year than anticipated in year 1 of the Dalton experience and I think next year they’ll be dancing with the big boys but this year they’re going to be left waiting for a prom date. Jets wrap up the 6th seed and if there’s justice for being obnoxious ego inflated pricks they’ll be bounced in round 1 by the Texans. If not then hopefully the Steelers or Ravens can serve them papers in round 2.

There you have it folks that’s why I see the AFC playoff race playing out and stay tuned for my take on the NFC race tomorrow night. Let me know what you think.

Geoff Jablonski