The State of the Nation is Due For a Trade

The Red Sox officially have someone manning the ship, and even though he isn't the candidate I fully endorse, he is fully capable despite little success in Toronto. Oh yeah, I have yet to give you the best part; he's not Bobby Valentine.

With regards to the compensation they gave up nothing so it's a win. For the people that are of the "no coach is worth any player" school of thought, had Mike Aviles not been the player given to the Blue Jays for Farrell he would have been non-tendered. Mike Aviles is not a starting Major League shortstop. He is an adequate utility player, however you already have a cheaper, faster utility player in Pedro Ciriaco therefore, you obtained the manager that you coveted and a player (who may or may not pan out, it really doesn't matter either way) in David Carpenter for someone that has been replaced on your roster and that you were not going to even extend a contract to, that's called winning a negotiation.

The off season has just begun for Boston but the work is nowhere near complete and before I can look forward we need to rehash the past for just a split second longer.

Back in the winter of 2003 John Henry, Larry Lucchino tried to trade Manny Ramirez for Alex Rodriguez. Here is the 2003 statistics for the two:

At that time just speaking baseball-wise this is as even a trade that you can get. Not only would Alex Rodriguez have been part of the fold but Magglio Ordonez also would have been in a Red Sox uniform. Now why would you want to trade for Alex Rodriguez and the largest contract in baseball at the time, when you have his statistical equal? The answer, marketability. Alex Rodriguez was more marketable, he was even more high profile than Ramirez and when Larry Lucchino and Tom Werner saw that this was possible they jumped at the time to make a bigger profit. (Anyone want to buy a brick?)

Eventually the MLBPA nixed the deal because of the money changing hands and money Rodriguez would have deferred, but since then, the Red Sox have used the same business model. When the television ratings dipped after 2009 and the Red Sox lost to the Angels what did they do? Made a splash in free Agency with John Lackey who was the best pitcher on the open market. When they didn't make the playoffs because of a rash of injuries in 2010 and the end of year ratings dipped again. They signed Carl Crawford and traded for Adrian Gonzalez, for four months they were the best team in baseball despite getting nothing from Crawford and ratings were booming. Then the Collapse, Bobby Valentine and The Trade happened and we're sitting here with a collective thumb right where a thumb usually doesn't go.

Does anyone see the problem with the aforementioned business model? On the surface making a splash to drive team interest when it's waning, which would add buzz/ticket sales/revenue makes all the sense in the world, but a business decision can't take precedent over an actual baseball decision if you want a successful team.

The thing that the Red Sox are seriously lacking heading into 2013 is a middle of the order number 3 hitter. Unless Josh Hamilton will take a 1-2 year deal then I want no part of him. And Justin Upton has all the potential in the world but he is not a sure thing, and it would be hard to give up commodities for anything less than a sure thing. The Red Sox must deal for an impact bat. This is to restore team interest as well as a sound baseball decision.

 It is with this in mind that I suggest the following trade:

Red Sox Trade Felix Doubront, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Bryce Brentz and Allen Webster

to

Minnesota for Joe Mauer , Scott Baker and 40 million dollars

Much like the upcoming election, fiscal responsibility is going to be a very big key going forward with the Red Sox organization. The Twins need controllable young pitching and power in their lineup. Which is why in this case I'd give a Major League ready starter and two very good prospects along for a little more salary flexibility for the future.

Joe Mauer doesn't turn 30 until the start of the next season and is still an elite hitter. I would not acquire him to be the starting catcher. I acquire him to be the starting first baseman and backup catcher and hand the reigns to Ryan Lavarnway. Thinking further, when inter league play comes about you move Ortiz to first, and put Mauer behind the dish.

Looking at his last three years shows us that the injury year in 2011 was the aberration and that he is back to producing at a close to elite level.

In 2012, he was still a top 25 player in terms of generating wins for his team and what the Red Sox need to do more than anything is win baseball games. Forgive me for sounding like a broken record but how do you win games? By scoring runs. How do you score runs, by getting on base and of anyone in baseball with at least 500 plate appearances do you know who had the highest OBP? That would be one Joe Mauer at .416. You look at the FLD numbers and see a -3.9 and while this is not the best way to trend, it was his first year playing first base on a more regular basis and I think will actually improve in 2013.

Haven't convinced you yet? Let's think about the ballpark the Red Sox play in and look at Joe Mauer's career spray numbers:

These numbers represent his career breakout by the field he hit the ball into. Based on the numbers it would not be over-reaching to say that he is a line drive to the opposite field hitter. Anyone see where I'm going with this? Joe Mauer's natural swing is to left field on a line. He hits more fly balls to left as well which in a small left field park is just one more thing to add to Joe Mauer's mystique and I don't think hitting .375 is out of the question.

ISO is a relatively new stat that shows the isolate power league average is approximately .145 so, to left field, in two far more spacious parks he has been damn near Ruth-ian. Is there any better park in baseball for that kind of swing than Fenway Park?

Joe Mauer still has 6 years and 138 million dollars left on his deal which is why you ask for 40 million of salary relief. However, we'll round to 38 million so that we are left with 6 years 100 million which is essentially a 16 and 2/3 million AAV and who wouldn't want Joe Mauer for under 17 million dollars per year for the next 6 years.

Scott Baker is coming off Tommy John surgery and would need to be eased back into a rotation but to have someone like Franklin Morales available as well would make that transition seamless in sort of a rotating number 5 pitcher. He is however one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.

On average he is giving approximately three more wins above a run of the mill pitcher. I'd like to pay careful attention to FIP and xFIP and use the following chart for context.

The Chart is the same for a baseline for both FIP and xFIP. What FIP and xFIP is defined as:

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.

What it shows here is that he was a better than average pitcher for the last three years until he was sidelined with Tommy John and while I'm not usually in the business of having two rehabbing players in Lackey and Baker in the same rotation but I am expecting a big rebound in Lester and Buchholz, and if my last post comes to fruition and the up-trending Jake Peavy is a part of the rotation than there is some margin for error. It is also very important that both Lackey and Baker had started throwing in 2012 and have been on track to be ready for Spring Training.

Joe Mauer has a full no trade clause that he could invoke, so this could be all for naught but giving the Twins two top 10 prospects along with Doubront, and 100 million dollars in salary relief could be just enticing enough for them to consider this deal.

Stay Tuned

Norton



Pitching the Trends

While most of you have switched to Neanderthal, I mean, football mode; Ok I'm sort of there too, baseball is always at the forefront of my mind. And I can't sleep most nights thinking about what the Red Sox need to do to make a respectable team for 2013. As far as I can see it's going to start and end with pitching.

We are not going to look at specific names until the end of the piece so here what we are going to look at:

Here is a little more background on the respective contract/heath situations of each player:

Player A: 15.5 million club option which will most likely be declined and bought out (2MM), therefore will only cost money to obtain. Has made 30+ starts per season for last 8 years, no red flags for health

Player B: 22 million club option which will most likely be declined and bought out (4MM), therefore will only cost money to obtain. Has won a Cy Young Award, first time throwing 200 IP since 2007, One major injury to lat in 2010, no issues with arm.

Player C: 9 million club option which will most likely be picked up, therefore will need to trade prospects and established MLB Players. Has made 30+ starts per season for last 6 years, Only player in comparison to throw 200 + innings in past three seasons, no red flags for health

Player D: 13.75 million guaranteed salary, therefore will need to trade more prospects and established MLB Players due to age. Has made 30+ starts in only three of seven seasons in the MLB. Only eclipsed 200IP once in seven years. Has a history of shoulder inflammation issues.

Obviously knowing if the respective teams pick up the options weigh heavily upon this, looking at the teams financial situation this is my best educated guess as to what happens with the players, so let's assume that all four scenarios happen. Got it? Good.

Now let's digest the first set data as it pertains to the Red Sox:

Players A-C are all roughly the same age and in their prime while Player D is about to enter his prime. Point for Player D.

Leading the most cumulative stats (yellow) is another point for Player D.

Both Players A and C get two points for durability/health and both eclipsing the 600 IP mark which is an average of more than 200IP per year.

The only player to increase IP for the last three years and trend upwards for workload is Player B. Despite having the fewest total innings pitched, he has shown the ability to fully come back from an injury and be the top pitcher in the comparison for 2012. Point for Player B.

One of the major problems of 2012 for the Red Sox was the inability to get out of jams which is why the LOB% (left on base percentage) is such a crucial stat. Although the aggregate LOB% stat goes to Player D the 2012 LOB% champion is Player B and is once again the only player trending upwards in that category.We'll give both Players B and D points.

Fly balls in Fenway Park are definitely something that need to be monitored so a HR/FB ration of 5.47 is incredible and a point for Player D.

For the readers that don't know much about the SABR-side of pitching, FIP and xFIP are defined as this by the wonderful guys at Fangraphs:

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.

 Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is a regressed version of FIP, developed by Dave Studeman from The Hardball Times. It’s calculated in the same way as FIP, except it replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed. This estimate is calculated by taking the league-average home run to fly ball rate (~9-10% depending on the year) and multiplying it by a pitcher’s fly ball rate.

Basically read it the same as you would read an ERA (the lower the better). Players C and D should each get points here.

Last but not least WAR. Player A has generated one full more win than the nearest competitor which really speaks to how solid/consistent he has been the last three years. Point for A. We will also award a point for the best player in the previous year (2012) since this is a "what have you done for me lately" league, which is Player B.

Here's the running tally for hose keeping score at home:

Player A- 3
Player B- 3
Player C- 3
Player D- 5

One more set of information we need to seriously check out before the deliberating is the velocity/pitch trends:

Player D obviously is the hardest thrower here, but he's not getting a point for that because of the down-trending in his FBv (Fastball Velocity) over the past 3 years. This may be due to the shoulder issues that have cropped up over the past couple seasons and is raising a big red flag in my book. This could also be a serious shoulder issue on the horizon this will be a negative on Player D. Player A is also down-trending in velocity probably more so due to his age and natural progression whereas he's never had much of an injury history therefore no negative will be awarded. But players B and C are both trending slightly upwards in Fastball velocity. In fact, both B and C are up almost across the board with all their pitches. We will give Three points for both B and C.

In looking at GB%, LD%, FB% we'll turn once again to our friends at Fangraphs:

Line drives are death to pitchers, while ground balls are the best for a pitcher. In numerical terms, line drives produce 1.26 runs/out, fly balls produce 0.13 R/O, and ground balls produce only 0.05 R/O. Ground ball pitchers generally have grounder rates over 50%, while fly ball pitchers have fly ball rates above (or approaching) 40%.

Player C is going to get a point for GB% given his total body of work and clear uptrend. The unfortunate uptrend in LD% for Player A is a negative point while Player C gets points for trending down in line drives and fly balls.

The HR/FB% is another particularly worrisome stat given the short porch in Left and in immediate Right. Player C loses a point for having a poor to awful rating and although Player D has a spectacular rating the upward trend is worrisome so we'll award half a point. Player B has been most consistent and now that he is fully healthy is more in line with previous years. Point for B.

The SwStr% (Swinging Strike Percentage) speaks volumes towards a pitchers "stuff" and how many pitches thrown are being swung at and missed by the opposition. The down-trending in A and D don't inspire confidence but the up-trending in B and C are both worth a point. It does need to be noted that all four pitchers were above the league average from 2011 for SwStr% which is worth a half point for all.

The last determining factor is that Players A and B will only cost money, Not money AND compensation. Most likely because of the 2012 season Player A will cost less than Player B therefore Player A will be awarded three points and Player B will be awarded two.

Here is how the final tally looks:

Player A- 5
Player B- 10.5
Player C- 7.5
Player D- 4.5

Despite all the charts showing Player B to have the "worst" aggregate stats for the combined three years a deeper look into the numbers actually would show that he is the most qualified and best fit for the Red Sox.

You may be asking yourself, who are these mystery players?

Player A- Dan Haren

Player C- James Shields



Player D- Josh Johnson

Everything is not necessarily cost-prohibitive but I'll call it cost conscious. The problem with how the Red Sox were doing business is they were just trying to buy the best available instead of finding the best fit for the team. That being said I would attempt to work on a 3-4 year deal worth in the neighborhood of 14 million per season with Player B.

And the newest starting pitcher for the Boston Red Sox should be, one, Jake Peavy.

Stay Tuned

Norton

The Path to Success

Seeing as though most of us look at Red Sox games now in sort of a "hey, at least they didn't score four touchdowns" attitude, it seems only appropriate that I finally post about how I would approach this off season with a 5-step-plan.

*Violently slides GM Hat On*

1. Fire Bobby Valentine on October 4th

To say that his inaugural season as Red Sox manager was an unmitigated disaster would be the understatement of the century. I don't like placating to the players any more than I would have to given the way they have conducted themselves for the better part of a year. But he is not part of a long term solution, he is not the motivator/baseball savant that he was hailed to be in today's game of baseball and most importantly he does not have the backing of the GM. Valentine needs to be relieved of his duties the first day of the off season to let potential candidates know that one; they are looking, and two; they have a clear vision of the future and are ready to move forward.

     2. Be thorough and innovative with the managerial hire

There is a blueprint for this sort of thing. Look at the Cardinals, White Sox and even the much-maligned Yankees who were ahead of the curve in hiring a manager that isn't far removed from the game. The game has changed since the 80's and 90's when a lot of today's managers got their start. Today it is more about analysis, ego suppressing and speed. It is now a young man's game with old ideals. But with the old ideals there are new concepts that are used to evaluate players are something that should not only be taken into account in the front office but in the dugout. (For anyone that still thinks RBI's and Wins and Losses are valuable statistics, please read the following piece by Jonah Keri, a God among baseball writers.)

It is also imperative that the Red Sox front office try and be innovative with their hire. They don't need a "name" for the sake of hiring a "name". Don't try and appease people with a pedigree if a candidate without one jumps off the page. The other prerequisite that needs to be met with the next manager is a knowledge of pitching or at least the capability of knowing how to work with pitchers.

So the criteria for the next manager are:

• Recently removed from the game
• Ability to used advanced metrics
• Not necessarily a household name
• Knowledge of pitching/how to work with pitchers

It is with those qualities that I fully endorse Brad Ausmus as the candidate that I want to manage the Red Sox in 2013 and beyond. He had an 18-year Major League career as a catcher in four different organizations namely the Houston Astros. He is from the Northeast (New Haven, Connecticut). He is now the Special Assistant to Baseball Operations for the San Diego Padres. In May of 2012 he was named the manager of Israel's team for the World Baseball Classic.

Joe Torre once said, "There's no question he can be a manager. He's a smart cookie, everybody knows that, and he has an engaging personality." At the end of that season knowing that Ausmus' career was over Torre actually let Ausmus manage the game.

     3. Make an impact trade for controllable pitching

With the new found wealth of pitching prospects you have the ability to make an impact trade for the starting rotation for next year and beyond. It is with those prospects I would approach Billy Beane about Brett Anderson. Anderson is signed through 2013 with club options for '14 (8 million) and '15 (12 million). His salary for 2013 is not expensive at 5.5 million but for a team with limited funds they have in the past sold high on their pitchers such as Mark Mulder, Dan Haren, and Gio Gonzalez which has bolstered the Oakland farm systems which has been historically rich in pitching.

Anderson whom just recovered from Tommy John surgery owns a career WHIP of 1.24, BAA of .260 and a SLG against of .375. Another left-handed pitcher in the rotation whom would be under control essentially for the next three years at 25.5 million dollars and has already rehabbed from Tommy John? That's worth giving up the prospects, sign me up.

One player that doesn't fit the "controllable pitching" scenario, but I would also keep an eye on is Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals have a lot of prospects that are on the cusp of being called up to St. Louis and Wainwright is entering the final year of his contract.

      4. Revamp the bullpen

The Red Sox bullpen has been run into the ground this year by sub-standard starting pitching. Because of the amount of innings they have had to throw the "dog days of August" and now September have tired the 'pen. However, players like Alfredo Aceves (personal conduct has now become detrimental to the team) and Mark Melancon (makes "way back" Wasdin look like Satchel Paige) need to go and fresh arms/personalities need to be brought in.

Andrew Bailey is the closer. That's the reason you traded for him and he has the stuff, and makeup to have that job for 2013. The only other people that I would write on my depth chart in pen are: Franklin Morales and Andrew Miller. They need to look into power arms for the back-end of the bullpen that throw strikes consistently. Ideally Daniel Bard would fit this bill but his ability to throw strikes is in question not to mention a 4-mph drop in velocity on his average fastball.

      5. Keep the "disciplined" approach

As much as Joe Mauer on waivers was intriguing, especially given his propensity to play 1B as well as catch, Ben Cherington stuck to his word and passed on a player that this team has coveted for years. Mauer is not a 23 million dollar a year player, however if the Twins ate 50-60 million and made him essentially a 15-16 million dollar per year player he would have to be considered not as a catcher, but as a first baseman and backup catcher.

The "discipline" that Cherington talks about doesn't necessarily mean not spending money but more about fiscal responsibility. Exploring contract extensions for players like Ellsbury, if it isn't exorbitant, is something that should be explored. If there is no way that you can get him for the price that you think he is worth you need to look into dealing him.

With regards to negotiations with players like Ortiz playing hardball isn't necessarily the worst thing that you can do. The Red Sox are in the process of rebuilding. There aren't many rebuilding phases that include signing 37-year-old players to multi-year deals at anything more than a team-friendly contract. If he feels that he is worth more than a one year deal at a higher salary (8-10 million) than any other DH in baseball, then let him walk and use the position to rotate players/playing time.

There aren't any marquee free agents that fit in the Red Sox plan for 2013 so I would not make a "splash" in the free agency market. The trade market wiill most likely be more lively for Boston given the assets they have at their disposal.

The Red Sox certainly have their work cut out for them but with more financial flexibility, smarter baseball decisions and a more disciplined GM they are better positioned to be competing in the near term than their old business model would have allowed them to be.

Stay Tuned

Norton

Sox Take Great First Step but Be Careful Not To Fall on Your Face With the Second

As my esteemed colleague wrote about and broke down piece by piece earlier today, here's VfC's own Ryan Norton's breakdown - read it now, the Red Sox and Dodgers pulled off a doozy of a trade at the most unlikely of times. I'm not here to breakdown the deal that sent Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto, and all of their bad contracts (expect you, Punto) to the Dodgers for Chavez Ravine's tenants top 2 pitching prospects, starting 1b, and some mid level prospects. What am I going to write about however is how yes it was a great step forward by the Red Sox after what has been an abysmal calendar year seeing them possess the 3rd WORST record in the AL over that time frame but that the Red Sox need to be careful not to fall flat on their faces this offseason/early next year.

By finding a taker for Josh Beckett's final 2 years, Carl Crawford's next 5 years, and Adrian Gonzalez's remaining 6 years the Red Sox were able to unload approximately $260 million in contracts. It did leave the team with a hole at first base but the ability to rid themselves of Crawford's albatross was well worth the price of losing Gonzalez and add Beckett's departure to the mix and you've got yourself a damn good deal. As for what's coming the Red Sox way it's incredible to me that there are ZERO BAD CONTRACTS coming back at them after unloading 3 megadeals. The only major league player the Red Sox received was the light hitting James Loney who's contract is up after this year anyway. The 2 pitching prospects the Sox managed to haggle from the Dodgers both have top of the rotation upside with Rubby De La Rosa possessing a top fastball and top of the rotation secondary stuff but a questionable ability to harness all his talent and he did have Tommy John Surgery recently but he looks good so far getting an appearance with the Dodgers in the past week. Allen Webster is also a top tier talent with a hard sinker that's been compared favorably to Derek Lowe's - not a bad thing at all.

Now that between myself and Ryan we have beaten this deals components to death it's time to look at what's next for the Red Sox moving forward and so far I don't like some of the ideas I'm hearing floated.

This offseason the Red Sox are going to have a ton of money to play with but by no means do I think that they need to get antsy and repeat history by throwing that money away on players who don't fit the long term plan that GM Ben Cherington has laid out in his mind. With this trade the Red Sox have the ability to look themselves in the mirror and honestly assess the young talent they have in their system currently and determine whether or not they're comfortable where they stand. The number one name I'm hearing Red Sox fans throw around is Josh Hamilton and how they believe the Sox should go after him once he finishes out his current contract with the Texas Rangers.

Now I agree that Hamilton is an absolute force to be reckoned with but there's a reason that the Rangers are allowing him to play out this year at 31 before deciding whether or not to engage in talks in what will be a contract in the 6 to 8 year range at $20+ million annually. Hamilton is a 31 year old in his 6th major league season and in only 1 of those years has he played more than 133 games (156 in 2008 at 27). His history of drug addiction is also a red flag as he had a relapse last offseason and it's not quite known exactly how much damage he did to his body through his persistent drug abuse early in his career and if I'm the Red Sox I don't think that's a risk I'm willing to take especially after taking a similar risk with Carl Crawford just two years earlier. The Red Sox also have a lot of OF options in their minor league system highlighted by Jackie Bradley, Jr., Bryce Brentz, Ryan Kalish, and Che-Hsuan Lin. I'd prefer to give one of those guys the opportunity to seize a starting OF job at Fenway over locking yourself into 6 years of a player who will deliver serious bang for the buck in the first 2 or 3 years but will inevitably fade in his 35-37 year old seasons.

The deficiency I believe the Red Sox truly need to address this offseason is their starting pitching and I don't think that this winters number one free agent Zack Greinke is an option. Greinke is a classic small to mid level market pitcher who doesn't appear to have any intention of playing in any of baseball's pressure cookers and doesn't have the makeup to handle it. Greinke is a stud when he's playing in front of small crowds as evidence by his Cy Young Award for Kansas City in 2009 and his success for the Brewers the previous season and a half. Since being dealt to the LA Angels in July of this year however he's struggled mightily going 2-2 with a 5.22 ERA in 6 starts and allowing 43 hits in 39.2 IP.

Greinke is an exceptional talent but he's not a fit for the Red Sox. He's more of a big fish in a small pond guy and has also been known to be a little quirky and standoffish in the clubhouse, something the Red Sox don't need to deal with now that they've gotten rid of public enemy numero uno in Josh Beckett. Greinke is going to command a deal in the 5 to 6 year range at $20 million a year...a price tag the Red Sox don't need to entertain. If I'm Ben Cherington I'm saying thanks but no thanks I'll spend my cake elsewhere.

Unlike their OF situation the Red Sox don't have great arms in the high minors that would be ready to step in early next year but what they do have is the arsenal to swing a trade for someone along the lines of King Felix if Seattle ever made him available. If I'm Ben Cherington I'm knocking on Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik's door every morning checking the status of Felix - who if dealt this offseason would still be under contract for 2 more years. Another possibility that I've heard floated out there is the Red Sox making a run after Cliff Lee. Now Lee is a pitcher that if I were Cherington I would in fact be comfortable paying $20 million a year because he's lights out and has proven that he can pitch anytime anywhere and be effective. The Phillies showed that their willing to deal him when they tried to get the Dodgers to take him off their hands just a few weeks ago but the Dodgers balked at picking up the remaining 3 yrs/$75 million on Lee's deal. That deal jumps up to 3 yrs/$87.5 million if the 4th year of the deal at $25 million isn't picked up and a $12.5 million buyout is activated. Now I wouldn't be comfortable paying him roughly $29 million a year for 3 years but if I the Phillies can be talked down to eating $9 million a year at the price of a higher prospect I would in fact by willing to make that deal. That would give the Red Sox a top of the rotation that consisted of Lee, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Felx Doubront. Pitching wins championships and the Red Sox as currently constructed don't have the pitching to make that happen. If either of these or any other big name guy can be had I'd be willing to part with the requesite pieces even if that included Jacoby Ellsbury.

Speaking of Ellsbury, since 'The Trade' all the chatter has been that the Red Sox can now use that money to lock him up long term. Not so fast Panama Jack. With Scott Boras as his agent the Red Sox would have a hard time engaging Ellsbury in extension talks (see: Fielder, Prince and Milwaukee) any time before his contract is up after next season and if I'm the Red Sox why would I want to extend him when I'm actually not really sure what kind of player he is. Is he the guy who has only played 3 full seasons out of 5 and had never hit more than 9 HR's in a season while being a speed threat or is he the guy who showed flashes of big time power last year and went yard 32 times? If this year's small sample size (50 games) is any indication he appears to sit more in the 10-15 range than the 25-30 range as far as power numbers are concerned. With a speedster like Ellsbury his value jumps from the $10-$15 million/year range to $20+ million/year when his power tool becomes playable. If that power tool he showed in 2011 is a flash in the pan then why commit to it long term when it doesn't actually exist? The Red Sox already signed a light hitting speedy outfielder to a big time long term deal and how'd that work out for them? Let Ellsbury play out the rest of this year see where he falls on the power/average scale (again is he a .321 hitter like last year or the guy who's previous career high was .301?) for the rest of this year and next year. This offseason if the Red Sox can maximize his value and ship him out of town for a big time starting pitcher I'm pressing the YES button. As I stated earlier the Red Sox upper minors are loaded with OF talent.

Ben Cherington swinging the deal of his life has opened up a lot of doors for the Red Sox moving forward and instilled confidence in Red Sox Nation in their new GM. He has the opportunity to peruse the free agent market without any restrictions and he also has the ability to evaluate his young talent at a time when Red Sox Nation has accepted their team isn't going to make the playoffs and was better off being blown up then left as currently constituted. Go ahead, Ben, the world is your oyster but be careful not to miss the mark and lose all that precious freedom you just earned with one fell swoop.

Let me know your thoughts and whether or not you agree or think that I'm way off and the Sox should go get Hamilton, Greinke, and whoever else they can land.


Geoff Jablonski

A Franchise Altering Trade

Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Nick Punto

for

James Loney, Allan Webster, Ivan Dejesus Jr (PTBNL's Rubby De La Rosa, Jerry Sands)

The Dodgers pick up 262.5M in salary

Drink that in. I'll give you a second to toss away the used Kleenex's because I went through six tubs of Jergens and 18 boxes of Puffs while on Twitter Friday night. This is not going to be a short blog post, so buckle up and enjoy the ride.

First we should look at what the Sox sent packing.

Josh Beckett (31.5M left on deal)- His time was up in Boston and despite the talent that he still possesses, he is no longer what the Red Sox want as a leader for their pitching staff. His WHIP is the highest of his career, and the attitude which used to accompany a winning mentality has turned into surliness and poor performance. It would not surprise me if Josh Beckett pitched well for LA because he will be pitching to weaker lineups, much larger parks especially in the NL West, and I do believe in the 'change of scenery' mantra.

Carl Crawford (102.25M left on deal)- This was the most surprising part of the deal to me. There is no precedent for any team ever trading for a player while he was on an operating table. He will not be ready for Opening Day next year so for them to take that kind of salary on in a player that has under-performed more than any other player in baseball relative to their contract it is a huge risk. His skill-set was too similar to Jacoby Ellsbury's at the time of his signing and the Red Sox already have one of baseball's best 2 hitter. Everything about his skill-set and game was redundant on the Boston Red Sox. I didn't like the signing at the time, I dislike it more now, and I'm not sure if he can handle it in Hollywood either.

Adrian Gonzalez (127M left on deal)- He was the reason that the Dodgers took on Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett. He is a Top 10 hitter in baseball over the last 6-7 years and will be a force in the middle of LA's lineup. With LA's new front office about to sign a new TV deal and being the largest Mexican-American demographic in the US, obtaining Adrian Gonzalez was a move that worked for business and for baseball. That being said, his laissez-faire attitude, blaming God for everything good or bad, and inability to really take responsibility for his role in anything regarding the Red Sox was surprising; given the type of player everyone thought he was and who he claims he is. As far as baseball is concerned, he's a stud. He knows the NL West very well and will have no problem living up to the contract which relative to his peers (Pujols, Votto, Texiera) is a relative bargain. However, is Adrian Gonzalez worth 56 million dollars per year which is essentially what it's costing the Dodgers while Crawford, Beckett and Gonzalez are all on the same roster.

I will not waste time talking about Nick Punto so let's look at what the Red Sox got in return.

James Loney- He's not you're prototypical slugging first baseman and the last few years have been underwhelming after a promising rookie year. He will be on the team for the rest of the season and I wouldn't be surprised if he's non-tendered after the season and the Red Sox opt for more power at a corner position via free agency.

Allan Webster- He's a 6'3'', 185 lbs right hander who going into the year was the Dodgers number 2 prospect and the 95th best prospect in all of baseball. In 27 games at AA this year for the Dodgers he has worked to 6-8, 3.55 ERA and 117 strikeouts in only 121.2 IP. He has a mid 90's fastball and also a curve, slider and changeup. One of my favorite sites, FanGraphs says that "he would slide into the Red Sox top 15 prospects at number 3 behind Matt Barnes and Xander Bogaerts". This is a player that could potentially be seen in Boston in 2013.

Ivan Dejesus Jr- He is easily the worst player among the lot. He was once a promising player but a horrific broken leg moved him from SS to 2B full-time and his defense has suffered because of it. A classic throw in and if he makes it to the Bigs is someone who will be a utility infielder at most. He was out of options so he made sense as a classic throw in for a trade.

For people that don't know why players are classified as PTBNL or Players to be named Later both Rubby de la Rosa and Jerry Sands are/were on the Dodgers 40-man roster. Because they didn't clear waivers and didn't give the option to all other teams to attempt to claim them they can not be dealt until the end of the season.

Rubby De La Rosa- Rubby de la Rosa is the wild card in this deal. He is coming off Tommy John surgery, but prior to Tommy John surgery he was throwing 100 mph. He appeared in one game for the Dodgers probably to showcase his health and he hit 96 on the gun and will only get stronger. The lack of power arms in the Red Sox system makes him immediately a commodity who's average fastball was 95.2 higher than Justin Verlander's. He has an unpredictable ceiling with the kind of arm he has which could be higher than Webster's, a solid back end of the bullpen reliever or just another arm.

Jerry Sands- Sands is a player that definitely has some power, but his numbers though extremely impressive are misleading. This year he has hit .303 with 24 HRs and 103 RBI in AAA. Looking at those you'd think you just signed a Triple Crown candidate but he plays in a league that is full of small ballparks that have players launching balls out left and right. For those thinking that Fenway park is a hitter's park as well, you're right but on average Fenway Park is a +8 for run differential and the fields that Sands has been frequenting are a +30. That is not to diminish what he has done but the numbers need to be taken into consideration. He could be in the mix for an outfield spot in 2013.

Now that you've seen what the Red Sox have given up and are getting in return what do I think of this trade?

This trade does not help them win right now, but it sets them up for the future. This is a franchise altering trade that has, in its wake, given Ben Cherington the keys to the Cadillac.

The new found financial flexibility has erased the remnants of Theo Epstein's mistakes (aside from Lackey) and has also expunged Larry Lucchino and his over-riding voice on the personnel front. This is Ben Cherington's team, and with this deal, he gets to build it how he wants it. And to be quite clear, he's the only person I trust that's already employed on Yawkey Way, that I would want putting my team together.

He is a former college baseball player, from a small town in New Hampshire, that despite all the corporate double-speak knows exactly what direction the Red Sox were headed. He is a Red Sox fan at heart. He is living the dream that most baseball loving/playing boys wet dream about when you live in the Northeast. Cherington made it a point to chastise his former boss (Theo) and the current owners when referencing "discipline" and that is exactly what the Red Sox need. He is the man for the job, now let's let the man work.

There are a few other issues to look at that is part of the fallout of this trade:

Bobby Valentine- Look, I do not think he's had a good season and I didn't think it was a good hire. I've said that time and time again. I also based that opinion on the roster as it was constituted at the time of his hire. With a roster with far less egomaniacs, that is the kind of environment that Bobby V has found his success. I think that this move has unfortunately assured Valentine of at the very least playing out his guaranteed 2-year deal. But at least you are putting Valentine in the best place for him to succeed with a roster full of people that want to prove that they aren't a bunch of for lack of a better word, assholes.

David Ortiz- With all the money that came off the books most people thought, "it's time to give Ortiz the 2-year deal he's been coveting." If Ben Cherington is true at his word (and remember the word is discipline) he will not give Ortiz two years just because the funds are there. The market for DH's is not what it once was and he has made more than double what the next closest full-time DH makes. The Red Sox should offer him one year at 8-10 million dollars. If other team's get into the bidding than you can entertain the thought of a two-year deal. But remember this, Ortiz will be a 38-year-old player that is coming off an Achilles injury that has kept him out for what will amount to be the final two months of the season. They need to start doing business more judiciously and Ortiz is not immune to it.

Jacoby Ellsbury- He is the most difficult case because he has been wildly inconsistent. Ridding themselves of Carl Crawford has opened the door to sign him long term which was effectively shut with him on the roster but you need to tread carefully before signing him. With Jackie Bradley on the cusp of his Major League career, you need to seriously look into dealing him before you sign him long term. If you can package him with other players for a stud starting pitcher you have no choice but to do it. If he is willing to sign a deal like the ones signed by Pedroia, Lester or Buchholz than you explore the extension, but given his agent and Ellsbury potential it is unlikely to see the hometown discount, but not out of the realm of possibility (Think Jered Weaver). If he doesn't, you let him walk and collect the draft picks.

I'm going to wait to get into more off season talk until the hot stove starts up but the best thing that came from this trade that it feels like Boston has their team back. The in-mates are no longer running the asylum and it feels like quietly John Henry has taken Larry Luchhino out back and beat him with a switch. All the while given Ben Cherington the authority to run the baseball team. The image of Ben Cherington sitting in front of the Red Sox logo, answering questions; giving thoughtful, honest and transparent answers makes me giddy with excitement that someone that knows what they are doing is running the organization. The future is no longer dim for the local nine but buzzing with hope and promise.

Stay Tuned

Norton