Do You Want Salt on That?

I've been called a lot of things, (just ask my ex-wife, HEY-O) but no one would ever call me someone that has been an advocate or a fan of Jarrod Saltalamacchia. That being said, the Red Sox are in quite the conundrum after the season with his impending free agency.

Saltalamacchia has by and large had a solid year offensively (ranked 7th in terms of raw power (ISO)) and has certainly improved to be a better catcher defensively than in years past. The pitchers do seem more comfortable with him yet you will still see the occasional terrible throw back to the mound to still make me nervous about his bout with the "yips". Derek Lowe spoke at length in a recent Red Sox broadcast about how much he appreciated David Ross because his throw was always perfect back to the mound which kept him in rhythm. All this withstanding he has been an integral part of the success of this team this year, admirably catching both ends of a double-dip and his ability to be in the lineup day after day.

My thoughts on this are simply this: Tell me who takes over for him and what's the cost.

There is one free agent catchers that I would consider "big name" (Brian McCann) and one trade candidate (Yan Gomes). For those of you saying, "what the hell is a Yan Gomes?", he is the backup/timeshare catcher for the Indians with Carlos Santana and Kelly Shoppach.


How do they stack up against one another offensively?

 I would say Gomes' 2013 is every bit as impressive as Saltalamacchia and McCann's despite having fewer at bats. Catchers typically blossom a little later in their careers compared to other position players and while Salty and McCann are in their respective primes Gomes is approaching his and doesn't become a free agent until 2019. These three are clearly head and shoulders above Ruiz offensively.

The UBR stat takes into account all base running scenarios (taking the extra base, tagging up and advancing etc.) Saltalamacchia is the leader in this category and given John Farrell's mantra of taking the extra base, and the fact that been very fortunate lately with a few steals it is not a surprise, but Gomes is a much faster base runner.

Looking at wOBA, which is a wonderful stat that measures a hitter's overall offensive value, it shows that Gomes, McCann and Saltalamacchia are well above average in terms of overall offensive value. Gomes also has created 33% more runs than league average which for a player that has not yet reached his prime is quite remarkable. He is ranked 33rd in terms of wRC+ of all players with at least 300 plate appearances ahead of the likes of Buster Posey, Evan Longoria and Prince Fielder. This is what we call a diamond in the rough.

I included a new stat called 'Dollars' which is basically what the player is worth given their performance. if you divide it by their WAR it comes out to be approximately 5 million per Win. Yan Gomes has been worth 3.6 Wins Above Replacement this year which totals to be about $17.8 million. When you consider the fact that he is not even arbitration eligible this is one of the biggest bargains in baseball this year.

While you want every player on your team to be well-rounded I place an importance on catcher defense because of the ripple effect that it has on the rest of the team especially the pitching staff. If a pitcher has the confidence of his catcher that he will control the running game, or block a pitch in the dirt, it is one less thing that he has to worry about and can focus more of his effort on the execution of his pitches.

I'll let Fangraphs explain how they quantify Catcher Defense:

"Like all defensive stats, both rSB and RPP are centered around 0, meaning that a score of zero is considered league average. Scores above zero are good, and those below zero are bad.

Note: these values are for each stat separately. If you would like tiers for catcher defensive value in total, double the values of the above tiers in order to get a quick-and-dirty estimate."

Given these metrics how do our candidates measure?

If you do as Fangraphs 'Note' tells you and add up rSB and RPP you will get the following:

Gomes 5.9
McCann 2.2
Saltalamachhia -1.6

This would put Gomes' defense at just about 'Great', McCann at slightly 'Above Average' and Jarrod Saltalamacchia approaching 'Below Average' in total catcher defense.

While Saltalamcchia has thrown out more runners than the other two he has been attempted on about twice as many times which speaks to the fact that the other teams don't fear his arm behind the plate and are daring him to throw them out, which he has been below average at best at in his career. This does not bode well for a long-term catcher as well whom will only get slower and less agile with age.

Numbers however are not the only factors when considering a player. McCann had shoulder surgery this past off season and for a position that throws just as many throws as the pitcher this is somewhat worrisome. Saltalamacchia and Gomes have not had major injuries to key body parts.

As mentioned Saltalamacchia's throwing is something that would need to be taken into consideration as the "yips" is something that could rear its ugly head at anytime, before doling out something long-term.

With McCann being the sexiest name as far as catchers go he will almost assuredly cost more than all the other catchers. I would guess that he gets at least a three to four year deal somewhere other than Atlanta, but if I am the Red Sox I pass on him at that length and being that he will be on the wrong side of 30 come next Spring Training.

Gomes will cost something in a trade, given his age, production, non-injury history and value (in terms of salary). Therefore you have to weigh, is what you're giving up plus the savings on Salty's contract demands worth it? I would say that one of the Indians needs is starting pitching which you could deal from a relative surplus depending on their demands. In the off season would you hesitate dealing the year of Jake Peavy an established veteran pitcher straight up for Gomes? I would. Or what about someone else who was cost-controllable like Doubront or Workman? I wouldn't think twice about this either. If Cleveland started talking about players like Barnes or Owens, then you'd certainly balk. But what about Webster? I digress.

Saltalamacchia is making 4.5 million this year so what would I deem to be an acceptable contract? At roughly the same age John Buck got a contract of 3 years 18 million. I believe Saltalamacchia is worth more than that. 3 years 23 million is the most that I would go for Saltalamacchia. I would go no longer than three years and while the money could fluctuate it is about length of contract not overall value. However, he is not a 10 million dollar per year player. Looking at just the salary, he would get a 3.1 million dollar raise per year for the next 3 years from his current salary which is a 70% pay raise from his current salary. You don't break the bank for flawed players, and given his age and current skill set this offer is more than fair.

There aren't many options but there are some. While the best option is to look into the trade market, ultimately I think the Red Sox strike a deal with Saltalamacchia and hope Blake Swihart makes strides in the minor leagues to supersede him in the future.

Stay Tuned,
Norton

Outfield Paying the Bills

Many people are looking for an explanation of how the "gritty", bearded Red Sox are pulling off such an outstanding season when most people, (I'm not most people), wrote them off before the first pitch. I'd say a healthier and more consistent rotation plays the biggest part, but I would say that the Red Sox outfield is the next place to look for an explanation to such a competitive, enthralling season.

Ellsbury and Victorino are two of the top three outfielders in the AL in terms of Wins Above Replacements. Given how remarkable they have been their WAR combined is only 1.2 WAR above Mike Trout aka Jesus Christ in velour pants. Anyway, back to the point, all of the teams that have two outfielders on the list above are very much alive in the playoff race, however The Red Sox have all three of their starting outfielders in the top 16 in the AL as well. (All of the outfielders on the chart qualify for the batting title in terms of PA).

First and foremost the Red Sox have stayed healthy this season. The list above had only 4 teams of the 12 that had 3 outfield candidates that earned enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. However, even without having Mike Trout the Red Sox have had the most productive outfield in the American League. Not including the Angels, because they are the outlier, look (below and to the left) at the next five teams in terms of outfield production: Orioles, Athletics Tigers, Rangers and Yankees. It's not a coincidence that these teams are in the thick of the pennant chases given that they are getting the production they are.

Ellsbury and Victorino have been dynamic at the top of the order. Ellsbury has 20 more stolen bases than his nearest competitor and is statistically the best base runner of all the outfielders that qualify. Not only has he had a very good offensive season with free agency pending, he has been the second best defensive outfielder on this list as well. The foot injury is troubling, but with a 7.5 game lead the Red Sox have the luxury of sitting him out. He played with it and stole bases for a week so I'm not entirely worried about the rest of this season however going into the off season I would have no choice but to bring up another injury when negotiating a deal, and I do think they need to explore a deal. (I'll save that for another post)

Ellsbury defensively, was second only, to Shane Victorino. I predicted that the Red Sox would sign Victorino based on other acquisitions the day before he was signed, and also had spoke about how solid his defense would be in Fenway Park. I however had no idea we would be getting a vintage Evans performance in the largest RF in the Bigs. It also should not go unnoticed that Victorino has done a lot of his damage within the last month almost exclusively batting from the right side even against righties due to lingering hip and hamstring issues. The guy plays hurt and is still effective while playing with nagging injuries. It does not fall by the wayside Shane, I see you, I see you.

(Sidenote: Major League hitters can hit fastballs, from any side of the plate. Michael Young said, "a Major League hitter can time a jet engine." The biggest problem for a switch hitter going from seeing only the opposite arm throwing at him, is breaking pitches going a direction than they are used to. Yet he is continuing to get and mash fastballs. What kind of advanced scouting is happening? I can't be the only person that knows this, right?)

Daniel Nava has gone from relative obscurity to a full-fledged starting outfielder in the major leagues. He ranks 16th in terms of outfield Wins Above Replacement and for a guy that used to be the towel boy at his college baseball team, 1.6 Wins better than Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton and Nick Markakis this year makes all the difference in the world for a team that won 69 games last year. Daniel Nava was an afterthought coming into the season, so much so that Bill James didn't even have him in any projected lineup and had Ryan Kalish projections ahead of his. How many games has Ryan Kalish played at any level this year again? He very well could get Comeback Player of the Year if John Lackey wasn't in the same league.

This is not to belittle the contributions of Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz or any of the infield, but the outfield is far and away the best trio in the American League. It is not a surprise they are leading in run differential along with the best record in the Majors given the production they are receiving from foul pole to foul pole.

Stay Tuned,

Norton

The Lackey Effect

The Red Sox don't have a starting pitcher that is as revered as Kershaw or Hernandez. But what they have in John Lackey this season is better than most and right now, he is the best healthy pitcher the Red Sox have. The healthy part of the Red Sox rotation right now looks as follows:

John Lackey has been the most consistent pitcher for the Red Sox all year and leads the staff in just about all advanced pitching metrics. But the fact that he doesn't lead the team in Wins is no where near indicative of how he has pitched. He has the lowest run support on the team at 3.77 with the other pitchers receiving almost 2 more full runs per game. Just to beat home the point of his lack of run support contributing to his losing record check the infographic below.

This is once again not to slight the season that Scherzer has had, but he gets more run support than any pitcher the Red Sox has and his win-loss record displays that. The Red Sox have been  shutout six times during John Lackey's starts. In baseball terms, we call that "shit luck".

In looking at the pitchFX section on Fangraphs it shows me the following velocity tidbits for John Lackey:

The striking thing is that he is only (on season's average) throwing .1mph harder than he was with a torn UCL in 2011. So what can we attribute this resurgence in John Lackey just looking at his velocity especially if you consider he's throwing his fastball at the same speed?

Look at his secondary pitches, mostly his cutter (more of a slider) they are all slower than his 2011 version which creates more of a speed change to deal with as a hitter. In 2011, his elbow was torn and was most likely over-gripping his pitches to try and create some sort of feel. Now, in 2013, he is throwing pain-free which allows more confidence in snapping off a curve ball harder, yet gripping the ball softer in your hand. (Note: The harder two-seam fastball, also a big weapon, could explain the more than 7% jump in GB% from 2011 to 2013)

This is where I make a proclamation I never thought I would make: John Lackey is potentially your Game 1 starter for the playoffs when (not if) they clinch. 

A healthy Buchholz, for me, is a difference maker in winning the pennant but he doesn't need to start Game 1 of the playoffs and personally I don't want him starting the first game of the playoffs unless he is the pitcher he was at the beginning of the season, not something close to the pitcher, but THE pitcher.

Here are the postseason numbers for each of the starters including Buchholz:

Both Lester and Lackey are "battle-tested" very good pitchers in the playoffs with Lester pitching better despite a smaller sample. Buchholz pitched well in one start in 2008 and Peavy did not pitch well in two starts for San Diego pre-surgery but is now a different pitcher in terms of stuff on a team with a much better offense than his previous foray into October. Doubront has not yet experienced postseason baseball.

There are multiple outcomes for the playoff rotation all of which hinge on how Clay Buchholz pitches down the stretch:

• Buchholz comes back and is just as dominant as he was in April and May then he should be the number one starter because given how much better he was than most other pitchers in the AL not just the Red Sox he gives you the best chance of winning Game 1. (Rotation: Buchholz, Lackey, Lester, Peavy**)
• Buchholz comes back and is not as dominant but is another above average pitcher then he would be slotted in the third spot in the rotation behind Lackey and Lester, in that order. (Rotation: Lackey, Lester, Buchholz, Peavy)
• Buchholz comes back and doesn't have it. This is not far-fetched. He has not pitched at the Major League-level in 3 months and now he's thrust into a pennant race. Despite pitching in the minors, there is a lot of rust to shake off and he may not have it. In which case, you leave Buchholz off the playoff roster entirely.  You are not going to put a player in the bullpen and ask him to pitch high leverage innings with questionable health and/or stuff to get the job done. (Rotation: Lackey, Lester, Peavy, Doubront)

**Why Peavy and not Doubront? Second half performances trend towards Peavy, and you are not trading away a young controllable player in Iglesias to sit Peavy if comparable performances are equal. "Peave" gets the nod. Other moves in the bullpen would be made for L-R balance. 

Winning the game is ultimately the most important thing, however being the winning pitcher isn't. John Lackey has not only earned his spot in the playoff rotation, but atop the rotation is best for all parties.

Stay Tuned,
Norton