What's Doing on Yawkey Way

There are a lot of questions surrounding the way the Red Sox have been conducting business in this off season entering 2013. To me, its simple, it's about two things, believing in the player development system (past and future) and not over-extending yourself for mediocre players/talent.

Any deal that totals three years or less in duration almost can not be viewed as a bad contract. Do not look at the AAV (average annual value) of the deal because the Red Sox were awarded a 'reset' button last July and have the money to spend. Are they overpaying? Absolutely. However ,coming off a last place finish, two miserable seasons in a row, and three seasons of not reaching October baseball the money has to speak and they have no choice but to overpay for some sort of incentive to come play in Beantown.
Most people are viewing Victorino, the newly signed Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli (if the deal gets completed), Johnny Gomes, and Koji Uehara as secondary talent. You would be correct. This is because they believe in the core of their team, when healthy, is still good. Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Will Middlebrooks, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury are the core of the team as currently constituted. They believe with the right manager at the front of the ship, and projecting players to play closer to their career norms rather than career worsts, they are capable of competing in the AL East. What they think was needed was complimentary players and depth instead of an overhaul and the sudden influx of cash has allowed them to go this route.

You'll notice that of all the players they've been signing, none of them have the stigma of losing compensatory draft picks after signing. This is also important because with those first two rounds they have had players come up through their system such as: Dustin Pedroia (2nd), Jon Lester (2nd), Justin Masterson (2nd), Clay Buchholz (1st), Jacoby Ellsbury (1st); just to name a few. So, they clearly feel that they can evaluate the top-end talent in a draft well. Therefore, you play to your strengths and load up (or not lose) the draft picks in the first couple rounds of the Draft.

The Red Sox have also upgraded their scouting department with the hiring of Eddie Bane as to not have to have the "bridge" years in the future and to re-develop the machine that was so bountiful with talent in the early 2000's. Eddie Bane was the talent evaluator in Anaheim that drafted Mike Trout, Kendrys Morales, Jered Weaver and Mark Trumbo. And before you say it, "what about the old draft busts, Brandon Wood and Dallas McPherson?" Bane was not part of that scouting team that inked those highly touted, but widely busted players, I looked it up.

The Ryan Dempster deal also pleases me because once again they got him for a minuscule two-year deal, it doesn't matter the money and it adds stability (has thrown 200+ innings in four out of the last five years with an average ERA of 3.73) to the back end of the rotation. This comes with a caveat though, if it all possible he needs to be handled with kid gloves when going up against the powerhouse offenses (Texas, Anaheim, Detroit and NYY). Which is why I would go with a pseudo-six-man rotation, and I would use someone like Franklin Morales or Alfredo Aceves as a spot starter so as to not over-expose the soft-throwing Dempster (average 2012 vFA: 89.6mph) to those lineups. If you go by the formula of 1-million dollars per win he should eclipse the 13 win plateau and therefore be worth his contract for the next two years.

While they have already signed Koji Uehara they should still be on the market for a late inning power reliever that could close if necessary. Which is why I think they need to pursue Joel Hanrahan to compete for the closer job. What they need is someone that throws hard and can put people away at the back end of the bullpen because Daniel Bard is not a sure thing right now, and my personal preference is to have power arms anchoring the bullpen.

Although his walk rate is up stockpiling fireballers at the back end of your bullpen is a recipe for success, and Hanrahan has had one of the leagues fastest fastballs for the past few years.

The other thing that the Red Sox are doing right now is putting a huge bunch of faith in their top prospects. There is nothing wrong with that, but it is extremely risky to think that every one of Bogaerts, Brentz, Bradley, Barnes and others are all going to pan out. But it shows that you have faith in the scouting and talent evaluation department which is the way to reload for the future.

These free agent deals are all deals that should serve as the perfect bridge to the next wave of the aforementioned "Killer B's".

Shane Victorino, three year deal. Ellsbury will be leaving at the end of the year (most likely) which gives the Red Sox leverage (can play center field, has speed, could hit lead off if need be) if you want to trade him, and also with Jackie Bradley Jr slotted for a late 2013 to early 2014 call-up the move doesn't block any ones progression unless for some reason they re-sign Ellsbury. There isn't much precedent though for letting a player get all the way through arbitration without signing them to a deal so I wouldn't anticipate them re-signing him at year's end.

Ryan Dempster, two year deal. Barnes will likely not be up with the big club until 2014 at the earliest which also would not impede any player's development.

Stephen Drew, classic Scott Boras one year "Pillow Contract". This should serve as a bridge to Bogaerts, but it also allows you to keep Iglesias in the minors to see if he can actually swing the stick because you still have to be able to hit your body weight in the majors, it doesn't matter how good your glove is. This might also be a sign that they have soured on Iglesias because they don't think he can hit. However he is still just 22 and has room/time to grow. Drew provides more balance to the lineup hitting from the left side, and should at least provide adequate defense.

David Ross, two year deal. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is a lumberjack playing catcher and shouldn't be allowed to put on a chest protector. Ryan Lavarnway whom the Red Sox should turn the reigns over to is still young and would need a veteran mentor catcher to learn from and Ross is as solid as they come defensively. Napoli shouldn't see many games behind the plate as the Red Sox don't have another first baseman that is really capable of playing there. Ross allows the flexibility to move Saltalamacchia, play Napoli solely at first base and play a more prominent role as a backup than most teams number two catchers.

These moves all look trivial right now, but the business model is sound because they have the money for it. I'll let the rest of the off season play out before I reserve judgement on the team but the allocating of funds is not something that I have a problem with, and you shouldn't either.

Stay Tuned

Norton

Sox Sign a First Baseman

Mike Napoli signs with the Red Sox for 3 years, 39 million (13 million per year)

First things first, the Sox are to be commended for being patient with the Mike Napoli signing and sticking to a three year deal instead of going for the fourth year, regardless of the higher AAV (average annual value). Given the current market of players, and the Red Sox financial situation this is the best thing for them to do, over pay for the players they want but do it on their terms with regard to length.

The Red Sox are actually doing intelligent business right now. They are building ridiculous depth given the rash of injuries that have happened the last three years. Not only that they are molding their lineup to fit their ballpark like the Yankees do, what the Red Sox have been lacking the last few years is power from the right side of the box. With a healthy Wil Middlebrooks, Napoli and Johnny Gomes (on a part-time basis) they finally have the thunder they need from that side of the plate.

I don't dislike the Napoli signing, but I think that some of the expectations need to be tempered. Much like with players such as Julio Lugo and Carl Crawford they killed the Red Sox before the became part of the team. Napoli won't be facing the Red Sox lackluster pitching of 2012 this year and will not have a .400 average at Fenway Park.

To me, this move also has a ripple effect, and I think it spells the end of Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Thank God). The Red Sox will not keep four catchers (David Ross, Ryan Lavarnway, Mike Napoli and Saltalamacchia) on the roster. Lavarnway has options left but he really doesn't have anything left to prove in AAA and is cheaper than Saltalamacchia (fiscal responsibility, remember?), Ross was signed to a 2-year deal and Napoli is too similar to Saltalamacchia to have in the same lineup.

Not only were their peripherals nearly identical in HR, R, RBI and WAR, but they are both minus defenders to boot, Napoli moreso than Saltalmacchia at catcher. Napoli however, walks a lot more than Saltalamacchia along with being able to play first base makes him more valuable because of his ability to get on base more and play another position. 2012 was a down year for Napoli in a lot of categories and I actually believe he will have a slightly better year average-wise (probably closer to .250) which will in turn bump up the OBP over .350.

As previously stated the Red Sox are conducting smarter business in structuring their team to fit the ballpark, however they are taking a calculated risk in 2012. The Red Sox have sacrificed defense at 1B and LF in Napoli and Gomes respectively, which is a gamble, but thinking along those lines it would make sense that they sign a plus defender to be in right field, and given the way the market is shaping up, I expect the Red Sox to sign Shane Victorino whom plays a Gold Glove quality right field. Let's look at the three players defensively:

Above is the total number of innings they've played at those positions during their Major League careers and easily what can be deduced is that Gomes is a butcher. But they are hoping that the HR production/Fenway wall will negate how porous he is defensively. Napoli is a slightly below average fielder at first base which means that Middlebrooks is really going to have to work on his throws across the diamond because Gonzalez isn't there to bail him out anymore, but he shouldn't cost many runs over the course of the year. Knowing that Fenway's right field is one of the most difficult in all of baseball to play, they almost have no choice but to go get a defensive stud and Victorino certainly fits that bill, add in the fact that he's a switch hitter with speed, he fits anywhere in the lineup.

Things are finally shaping up in Beantown and the Red Sox are making sound fiscal business decisions. There may be light at the end of this tunnel, and it may not be that long before they find it.

Stay Tuned

Norton

Rounding the Bases and an AL MVP Debacle

It seems to be a never-ending update with little to show thus far for the Red Sox as far as "winning the off season" but they are sticking to a method and that is to be commended. I'm also going to wax poetically on why the BBWAA is the biggest group of knuckleheads this side of the mighty Missus-Sip And away we go...

The Blue Jays Acquire an Ace a Number 3 and a cornerstone shortstop-

I'm not going to lie to ya'll, it cuts deep as a Sox fan when a division rival pulls off a blockbuster for what would seem to amount to pennies, but I'm glad the Red Sox, whom were in discussions for the same deal, passed on this one, because according to sources the Marlins asked for Middlebrooks, Bogaerts and Doubront which is absolutely not a good deal for Boston.

This move, with the teams currently constituted as they are, doesn't put the Blue Jays at the forefront of the AL EAST but what it does is add more parity to a very competitive division. What I mean by this is that it is widely-known that it usually takes 95 wins to win the division. With the additions that Toronto has made it should allow for them not to be a punching bag and could allow for as much as 3 less wins for whichever team wins the AL East.

As of right now my standings look like this:

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays

Boston Red Sox

Baltimore Orioles

Whoa, what did he just say? Yes I put the Orioles in last place in the division because as of right now, I believe that they were a fluke and the slapstick pitching staff they had was more of an anomaly than the start of something big. The Orioles were a staggering 29-9 in one run games last year and I believe that their accomplishments are going to be hard to duplicate and unless the obtain at least one premium starter that they will regress significantly.

Buck Showalter did a masterful job with his bullpen but knowing the volatility of relievers from year to year I am not willing to put them ahead of a healthy Red Sox team that is going to be far better with the right manager. This is not to say that the Orioles will not compete. The AL East might be the most balanced and competitive division when the off season is all said and done.

I still like the Red Sox pitching despite a down year more than the Orioles staff and the impact of a healthy Ortiz, Middlebrooks and (possibly?) motivated Ellsbury going into his walk year. I am calling the Sox and Orioles offense equal as of right now, but I still give the edge on the bump to Boston.

The Red Sox lack of a Hitting Coach

The Red Sox are still in the process of hiring a hitting coach and until he signed with the Marlins, Tino Martinez was rumored to be in the running for that post which in my opinion would have been a very good outside the box hire.

However, it's time to get a body in here, and my vote is for Rudy Jaramillo. He was the hitting coach for all of those powerful lineups in Texas for the last decade and a half. He has the pedigree to handle any ego that is still left in Boston and the experience to command respect that a man at that post deserves.

A Pre-Emptive Extension for Dustin Pedroia

This is a spectacular development for Boston from every standpoint. Pedroia despite a little bump in the road mostly attributed to an inept manager is everything that embodies what you want in a baseball player and it makes business sense. He has two years left on his deal and Robinson Cano is due to hit the market in 2013, so by signing him now to your price, you don't have to use Cano as a barometer for Pedroia's contract.

So right now the benchmark for Pedroia is Ian Kinsler's 5 year 75 million dollar deal. I think a five year pact is a good place to start and 80 million dollars which would make him the highest paid 2B in terms of AAV at the time of the contract which will for sure drive Cano's contract up and hopefully financially tie the hands of the Yankees with the new luxury tax rules.


Miguel Cabrera over Mike Trout is a Travesty

Miguel Cabrera had a spectacular offensive season and I will not take that from him. However, Miguel Cabrera winning the Most RBI Award, I mean the MVP Award is the most irresponsible vote of all time. If you want to talk about the value of a player there are three facets of baseball, there is hitting, fielding, and base running.

Here's the breakdown:

(Sidenote: You will notice that RBI is not on this chart because RBI is a pointless statistic that has more to do with ancillary team accomplishments compared to individual performance.)

Mike Trout had an unparallelled season in the history of baseball. No player in baseball history has ever hit 30 HR, scored more than 120 runs and stolen more than 45 bases in one season. He had the highest WAR over the course of a season since a guy named Barry Bonds in 2004 but if you want to go with someone without a PED past than you're looking at Albert Pujols in 2003 and before that Griffey Jr. in 1996. You're talking about one of the Top 10 non-steroid seasons in the last 30 years in terms of WAR

If you want to talk about Cabrera "carrying his team to the playoffs" you are completely ignoring the fact that the Angels had one, a better record than Detroit with 89 and 88 wins respectively. Two, the fact that the Tigers got to play the Royals and Twins to end their season along with almost twenty times a piece throughout the year. Three, saying that Cabrera did it alone is to completely degrade the contributions of Austin Jackson, Prince Fielder, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer who all had great seasons as well. The Angels by and large faced a lot stiffer competition throughout the year which certainly can't be overlooked.

The real advantage that Cabrera had is that he played about 3 weeks more games than Trout did. That is not to go unnoticed, however, despite that 3 week discrepancy Trout had one more walk in three weeks less time at the plate. When talking about value at the plate the worst thing you can do at the plate is not strike out, the worst thing you can do is ground into a double play, because the name of the game is not making outs and making two outs in one at bat is worse than one. With that knowledge Cabrera grounded into 28 double plays to Trout's 7. If my math is correct that is a 300% increase in double plays grounded into thus creating two outs with one swing instead of one.

Anyone that says Cabrera was "OK" at third base has never watched a baseball game plain and simple. Moving to third base for the sake of the team is admirable, but that has no bearing on an MVP vote and his defense, or lack there of was atrocious. If the ball was hit right at him, and not to either the left or right he would make the play, he has a good arm, but his lack of range severely hurt the Detroit pitching staff throughout the course of the year. Mike Trout played a more difficult defensive position but let's let the numbers speak for themselves:

Both players played different positions for their team so this doesn't take into account Cabrera at 1B or Trout in LF or RF but both of their primary positions. The other caveat is that CF is the more difficult position, not by a lot, but you have more ground to cover and many more angles to play than thrid base. As you can clearly see, Mike Trout in the DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) saved 23 runs as opposed to Cabrera who essentially let 4 runs in defensively over the course of the season.

RZR is defined by Fangraphs as:

Revised Zone Rating (RZR) measures, “the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out”

Think of these as a percentage like a grade in high school Mike Trout got a 95 which is an A while Miguel Cabrera got either a D- or an F.

The Out of Zone rating had Mike Trout make more than double the amount of plays outside of his "zone" on defense in three weeks less time mind you. As far as all of the other zone ratings he is literally double the defensive player that Cabrera is, so I'll just let you continue to digest the landslide that took place while standing in the field.

Value is something that should be looked at thoroughly for the three aspects of the game of baseball and the archaic Baseball Writers Association of America members need a refresher course to get a better understanding of the game. Ultimately had Mike Trout hit one percentage point higher than Miguel Cabrera he would have been a landslide victory so for him to lose in a landslide is a travesty.

Stay Tuned

Norton

The Direction is Promising

In the last two weeks the direction of the Red Sox has taken a drastic U-Turn from an abyss and towards a relative level of respectability among the Boston landscape. We've got a few topics to cover so we might as well get started.

David Ortiz is re-signed a 2 year 26 million dollar deal (incentives can boost up to 30 mil.) 

From a business standpoint Ortiz bent the Red Sox over a barrel and really laid the wood to 'em. Before you cut my nuts off for blaspheming think about this. When Ortiz was 35 they picked up his 12.5 million dollar option and didn't give him a multi year deal. When Ortiz was 36 he accepted their arbitration offer of 14.58 million and didn't give him a multi year deal. Now when he's 37, and coming off an injury that cut his season in half you give him a two year deal? Where's the logic? Answer: Pink hat's need to be appeased, but at least this was a baseball move which is more than they can say for the Carl Crawford signing.

There is also the question of motivation. Ortiz has been pissed off and motivated to produce for the last couple years. Now, what happens in 2013 where he doesn't have to hit to get a contract for the next year? The last time he had the security of a contract he had the mighty struggles that almost got him cut from the team.

While I much rather would have held Ortiz to a one year pact they could have spent the money worse. At thirteen mil a year his base pay is actually less than what the qualifying offer was (13.3 million) and will most likely have gone up next year. Therefore by signing this deal he has forfeited at least $600,000 in what would be part of a guaranteed salary. If you subtract that from the potential money he could reach with incentives ($4 million) people are quibbling over 3.4 million dollars. With a guaranteed team salary in the 40 million range and what will be closer to 70 after all arbitration's and raises take into effect, they have around 90 million dollars that they could spend for this year (if they find it judicious to spend), and I honestly have no problem with giving Ortiz an extra 1.7 million dollars per year for the next two years if he meets the incentives.

The lack of a contract for Cody Ross

I for one am for this move because everyone is overrating him just because he is a great teammate and "dirt dog". Unfortunately he is not as indispensable as all the pink hats are making him out to be. Let's look at the following chart of available OFs:

What the Red Sox are in need of are on-base machines to "keep the line moving" as they say. Something they also need to limit is the amount of strikeouts, the amount of strikeouts they had with RISP last year was something out of a Bad News Bears movie.

Players A, B and D each led four of the categories while Player C led three. Players E and F led one and none respectively.

Player A was clearly the most superior player as he generated more Wins Above Replacement at 5.3 and was a spectacular fielder. His BABIP would indicate that he'll probably regress a little next year but he should definitely remain in consideration

Player B was probably the best all-around offensive player in this group but a suspension for PED's cut his season short. He needs to remain in play to be signed by the Red Sox because of the massive cut he will have to take in pay as a free agent.

Player C ranked last the most in four categories, however he also played the most games and had more opportunities to fail (or succeed). This player is more dynamic and is a switch-hitter which is something the Red Sox could desperately use. This was statistically one of Player C's more sub par years but his durability alone must keep him in the race, for now.

Player D clearly has the most power as three of the four categories he leads are power related but doesn't bring much else to the table as he had the least amount of hits, not one stolen base and was statistically the worst fielder, therefore he's out.

Player E had a solid all-around peripheral year (.325 avg, FLD 2.3) while playing many positions but he doesn't walk enough and was basically a part-time/match up player. I would not sign him to be a starting OF. If he was a fourth OF and backup IF he makes perfect sense, but for a starter, nope.

Player F led the group in strikeouts and generated the least WAR. He didn't do anything spectacularly but for the most part didn't do anything overly bad outside of striking out far too much, but the Red Sox need players that are more than just another player.

Just based on the numbers Players A, B and C should be the choice for the OF that the Red Sox need.
Players A, B and C should not receive more than 2-3 year deals and some may receive one-year pacts.

For me, I'd like to see what player B looks like a year removed from a positive PED test before I offer him a contract unless players A and C are off the map, and we are looking for a bargain outfielder.

Players A and C would equally have my interest piqued on two year deals. Neither of these players are Cody Ross. In fact, Cody Ross didn't even make the second cut.

Mike Reinhold out as head physical therapist

This is actually a positive development. Not because someone lost their job because that's never a positive development, but because they are finally addressing that there is something amiss in the Boston infirmary.

Reinhold was notoriously a "Theo guy" and butted heads with Valentine (who didn't?). But a manager trumps a head physical therapist and Reinhold needed to find a way to work with a new regime and he didn't do it, bottom line. The communication was not good between the medical and coaching staff and I am not blaming all that on Bobby V. The handling of certain medical treatments in the last half decade has been suspect to say the least and it was definitely time to fully cleanse the situation.

It would not surprise me if Reinhold ends up in Chicago with Theo in some similar role but for now the Red Sox definitely made the correct choice, which is not something that has been said often enough lately.

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Overall the general direction of the Red Sox is trending upwards and I wish I knew if it was because Larry Lucchino is less involved or Ben Cherrington was given more of a voice.

Stay Tuned

Norton

The State of the Nation is Due For a Trade

The Red Sox officially have someone manning the ship, and even though he isn't the candidate I fully endorse, he is fully capable despite little success in Toronto. Oh yeah, I have yet to give you the best part; he's not Bobby Valentine.

With regards to the compensation they gave up nothing so it's a win. For the people that are of the "no coach is worth any player" school of thought, had Mike Aviles not been the player given to the Blue Jays for Farrell he would have been non-tendered. Mike Aviles is not a starting Major League shortstop. He is an adequate utility player, however you already have a cheaper, faster utility player in Pedro Ciriaco therefore, you obtained the manager that you coveted and a player (who may or may not pan out, it really doesn't matter either way) in David Carpenter for someone that has been replaced on your roster and that you were not going to even extend a contract to, that's called winning a negotiation.

The off season has just begun for Boston but the work is nowhere near complete and before I can look forward we need to rehash the past for just a split second longer.

Back in the winter of 2003 John Henry, Larry Lucchino tried to trade Manny Ramirez for Alex Rodriguez. Here is the 2003 statistics for the two:

At that time just speaking baseball-wise this is as even a trade that you can get. Not only would Alex Rodriguez have been part of the fold but Magglio Ordonez also would have been in a Red Sox uniform. Now why would you want to trade for Alex Rodriguez and the largest contract in baseball at the time, when you have his statistical equal? The answer, marketability. Alex Rodriguez was more marketable, he was even more high profile than Ramirez and when Larry Lucchino and Tom Werner saw that this was possible they jumped at the time to make a bigger profit. (Anyone want to buy a brick?)

Eventually the MLBPA nixed the deal because of the money changing hands and money Rodriguez would have deferred, but since then, the Red Sox have used the same business model. When the television ratings dipped after 2009 and the Red Sox lost to the Angels what did they do? Made a splash in free Agency with John Lackey who was the best pitcher on the open market. When they didn't make the playoffs because of a rash of injuries in 2010 and the end of year ratings dipped again. They signed Carl Crawford and traded for Adrian Gonzalez, for four months they were the best team in baseball despite getting nothing from Crawford and ratings were booming. Then the Collapse, Bobby Valentine and The Trade happened and we're sitting here with a collective thumb right where a thumb usually doesn't go.

Does anyone see the problem with the aforementioned business model? On the surface making a splash to drive team interest when it's waning, which would add buzz/ticket sales/revenue makes all the sense in the world, but a business decision can't take precedent over an actual baseball decision if you want a successful team.

The thing that the Red Sox are seriously lacking heading into 2013 is a middle of the order number 3 hitter. Unless Josh Hamilton will take a 1-2 year deal then I want no part of him. And Justin Upton has all the potential in the world but he is not a sure thing, and it would be hard to give up commodities for anything less than a sure thing. The Red Sox must deal for an impact bat. This is to restore team interest as well as a sound baseball decision.

 It is with this in mind that I suggest the following trade:

Red Sox Trade Felix Doubront, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Bryce Brentz and Allen Webster

to

Minnesota for Joe Mauer , Scott Baker and 40 million dollars

Much like the upcoming election, fiscal responsibility is going to be a very big key going forward with the Red Sox organization. The Twins need controllable young pitching and power in their lineup. Which is why in this case I'd give a Major League ready starter and two very good prospects along for a little more salary flexibility for the future.

Joe Mauer doesn't turn 30 until the start of the next season and is still an elite hitter. I would not acquire him to be the starting catcher. I acquire him to be the starting first baseman and backup catcher and hand the reigns to Ryan Lavarnway. Thinking further, when inter league play comes about you move Ortiz to first, and put Mauer behind the dish.

Looking at his last three years shows us that the injury year in 2011 was the aberration and that he is back to producing at a close to elite level.

In 2012, he was still a top 25 player in terms of generating wins for his team and what the Red Sox need to do more than anything is win baseball games. Forgive me for sounding like a broken record but how do you win games? By scoring runs. How do you score runs, by getting on base and of anyone in baseball with at least 500 plate appearances do you know who had the highest OBP? That would be one Joe Mauer at .416. You look at the FLD numbers and see a -3.9 and while this is not the best way to trend, it was his first year playing first base on a more regular basis and I think will actually improve in 2013.

Haven't convinced you yet? Let's think about the ballpark the Red Sox play in and look at Joe Mauer's career spray numbers:

These numbers represent his career breakout by the field he hit the ball into. Based on the numbers it would not be over-reaching to say that he is a line drive to the opposite field hitter. Anyone see where I'm going with this? Joe Mauer's natural swing is to left field on a line. He hits more fly balls to left as well which in a small left field park is just one more thing to add to Joe Mauer's mystique and I don't think hitting .375 is out of the question.

ISO is a relatively new stat that shows the isolate power league average is approximately .145 so, to left field, in two far more spacious parks he has been damn near Ruth-ian. Is there any better park in baseball for that kind of swing than Fenway Park?

Joe Mauer still has 6 years and 138 million dollars left on his deal which is why you ask for 40 million of salary relief. However, we'll round to 38 million so that we are left with 6 years 100 million which is essentially a 16 and 2/3 million AAV and who wouldn't want Joe Mauer for under 17 million dollars per year for the next 6 years.

Scott Baker is coming off Tommy John surgery and would need to be eased back into a rotation but to have someone like Franklin Morales available as well would make that transition seamless in sort of a rotating number 5 pitcher. He is however one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.

On average he is giving approximately three more wins above a run of the mill pitcher. I'd like to pay careful attention to FIP and xFIP and use the following chart for context.

The Chart is the same for a baseline for both FIP and xFIP. What FIP and xFIP is defined as:

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.

What it shows here is that he was a better than average pitcher for the last three years until he was sidelined with Tommy John and while I'm not usually in the business of having two rehabbing players in Lackey and Baker in the same rotation but I am expecting a big rebound in Lester and Buchholz, and if my last post comes to fruition and the up-trending Jake Peavy is a part of the rotation than there is some margin for error. It is also very important that both Lackey and Baker had started throwing in 2012 and have been on track to be ready for Spring Training.

Joe Mauer has a full no trade clause that he could invoke, so this could be all for naught but giving the Twins two top 10 prospects along with Doubront, and 100 million dollars in salary relief could be just enticing enough for them to consider this deal.

Stay Tuned

Norton