2011's Shortcomings of Terry Francona

Barring a collapse of epic proportions the Boston Red Sox will be in postseason play for the 6th time in 8 years under the strong arm of Terry Francona. In the grand scheme of things Terry Francona has been the most influential manager since the days of Dick Williams in Red Sox lore, however he may be relying too much on his "gut" and not enough on the statistics. Three things that need to happen going into the last month of the season and the playoffs:

Fewer innings for Matt Albers/More for Dan Wheeler

Matt Albers had a brilliant pre-All Star Break season. But as everyone knows the season is not a sprint its a marathon and the second half of the season has been a train wreck. Here are the splits.

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
1st Half	29	149	131	11	29	5	0	1	4	1	15	34	2.27	.221	.297	.282	.580	37	2	0	1	2	0	2	.286	71	65
2nd Half	17	91	76	16	22	6	0	2	1	2	11	19	1.73	.289	.400	.447	.847	34	1	3	1	0	1	0	.364	149	133

For a guy that has a career ERA just a tick under 5.00 He had to come back to earth at some point. Since the beginning of August Albers' ERA has ballooned from 2.25 to 4.28. He has given up more runs last month than he did in all of the other months combined. He is either very tired or the smoke and mirror tricks that worked at the beginning of the year aren't sustainable for the entire 162 game schedule. This guy needs to no longer be pitching in high level situations, Dan Wheeler needs to usurp his spot in the Tito Francona "circle of trust"

Since May 21st Dan Wheeler has given up 6 Earned runs, 6! His ERA has come down from over 10 to 3.80 during that same time span. He is battle tested with success in the playoffs and a pennant race and for some reason Terry Francona continues to put Wheeler into games that are either out of reach or well in hand. Here are Wheelers splits during the same time period as Albers.

Split ▴	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
1st Half	28	117	113	16	29	7	0	4	1	1	4	22	5.50	.257	.282	.425	.707	48	1	0	0	0	1	1	.287	113	97
2nd Half	15	64	59	3	11	3	0	2	0	1	4	15	3.75	.186	.238	.339	.577	20	0	0	1	0	0	0	.214	75	56

Only Aceves, Bard, and Papelbon have put up more consistent numbers since mid-May and Dan Wheeler has earned the right to pitch in high leverage situations. How much more evidence does Francona need. All aboard the Wheeler train next stop, hopefully Fenway Park.

Right Field Situation

Right Field for the Boston Red Sox right now is an absolute mess. Josh Reddick is in the midst of a .138 (9 for 65) slump since August 7th and has finally come back down to earth from that lightning in a bottle start he had through his first 100 at bats. While he has a rocket arm in Right field he also made a crucial error in the game against the Yankees on Wednesday night that lead to giving the lead up but ultimately proved inconsequential. It's time for the rookie to take in the game from the pine instead of the grass.

Darnell McDonald's season has been lost from the start and he will most likely see less and less time going forward with the new acquisition of Conor Jackson. I can safely say most people are jumping with joy over anything manning left field other than McDonald. Jackson despite having a down year (could have something to do with playing in the cavernous ballpark in Oakland) is a few years removed from hitting 15 home runs and driving in 79 RBI. He is a versatile player who can play both infield and outfield corner positions. That is essential to have this kind to have this kind of flexibility in September to rest guys going into the stretch run.

JD Drew has had a set back where he has a hairline fracture on his right middle finger. This could not possibly have come at a worst time, when he needs to get at bats going into September. Not only getting up to speed at the plate but providing some sort of stability to what has been a carousel in right field the last 2 months is critical and right now the players out there are not cutting the mustard. Never thought any Red Sox fan would say this, but I long for the day when JD Drew is back in this lineup.

The Shortstop situation in the playoffs.

The shortstop position is one that will require serious consideration going into October. Let's look at the candidates: Jed Lowrie and Marco Scutaro.

Lowrie's best position is third base but with Kevin Youkilis in the fold he's not going to be playing there. His defense makes Julio Lugo look like Ozzie Smith at times. That may seem extreme, but just imagine that little routine chopper with a guy on third in the bottom of the ninth inning and 2 outs and then seeing Lowrie try to make that play to the side of his body instead of centering his body and making the play like a normal human being would. Then handcuffing himself so that he bobbles it and the tying run comes across. That's enough to give me an aneurysm. His range is certainly better than Scutaro's but the routine play is the one I'm worried about. Advantage: Scutaro.

Marco Scutaro is a considerably better hitter against righties than Lowrie, (.273 to .218 respectively) and should get the majority of the starts in the post season when a righty is on the hill. Advantage: Scutaro

However if a Southpaw is throwing serious consideration should be given to starting Lowrie. Lowrie hits at a gaudy .354 clip against lefties and while Scutaro is at a respectable yet mediocre .264. Advantage: Lowrie.

Here's how it boils down for the playoffs.

If the Red Sox play the Rangers you'll most likely see Lowrie against CJ Wilson and Derek Holland with Scutaro against Colby Lewis and Alexi Ogando.
Against the Angels and Tigers you'll see Scutaro in most of the games where their starters are all right handed.

Here's hoping Francona can make these astute observations and bring the Red Sox back to the Fall Classic. If he doesn't this supposed magical season could come to an abrupt halt before the ALCS even gets underway.

Stay Tuned
Norton