Who Ya Got Red Sox Nation? Tigers or Rangers?

If the regular season ended today (I know, I know I hate that line too but I’m going to use it. Thanks a lot for making the world hate it Tim Kurkjian) the Boston Red Stockings would be matched up against the Walker, Texas Rangers with the New York Yankees drawing the Detroit Tigers. Sorry folks, Yankees/Sox will have to wait until the ALCS. Rules are rules can’t play a team from your own division first round. A quick look at the current standings: the Tigers stand at 79-62 holding a 7.5 game lead in the AL Central and the Rangers check in at 80-62 in possession of a 2.5 game lead in the AL West. The Tigers have come on strong lately and could possibly catch the Rangers for second best record in the AL thus drawing the AL Wild Card entrant (Red Sox). Red Sox Nation get on your knees and start praying to the baseball Gods that this scenario comes to fruition. Let’s take a gander at each of the teams and the problems they present to your Boston Red Sox and who I’d like to see come playoff time.

Detroit Tigers – Red Sox took 5 out of 6 in season series: The Tigers offense checks in as the 4^th highest scoring team in the bigs with the 3^rd highest BA, 4^th highest OBP, and 4^th highest slugging percentage (they rank behind the other AL playoff participants in all categories except being ahead of New York in BA). Led by another ho hum MVP worthy year from Miggy Cabrera the Tigers offense is potent with the additions of Victor Martinez in the offseason and Delmon Young at the trade deadline. Not to mention huge years by SS Jhonny Peralta (his BA had declined the past 3 years considerably until hitting .305 this year) and C Alex Avila. Avila’s emergence, he’s hitting .299 with 17 HR’s and 68 RBI’s while throwing out 32.3% of runners, has been especially important as it allowed V-Mart to do what he does best and play DH not catcher. So why do I think the Red Sox should want to draw the Tigers over the Rangers? The Tigers starting pitching of course.

The Tigers do have Justin Verlander who is leading the MLB in wins (21), IP (223), AVG against (.192), SO (224), WHIP (0.91) and general awesomeness. Oh yeah he’s 2^nd in ERA at 2.34, not too shabby. In a five game set though Verlander can only throw 2 out of 5 games and that means that the other pitchers Detroit can run out there have to win 1. I like the Red Sox odds. Max Scherzer has electric stuff (and 2 different color eyes – fun fact) but he’s never really put it all together. He has had flashes of dominance this year but he’s still bringing a 4.33 ERA and 1.35 WHIP and behind him are Rick Porcello (who’s shining moment is duking it out with Youkilis) and Brad Penny. All righties and all very susceptible to falling apart at the drop of a hat. Their bullpen is halfway decent with Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Joaquin Benoit, and Jose Valverde shutting the door. I’ve never been a Valverde fan and I think he’s always ready to implode but you can’t argue with the fact that he’s 41-41 in saves. In the end though the Tigers are the matchup I want it’s pretty easy to explain why.

Texas Rangers – Rangers went 6-4 vs. the Red Sox in season series: Why fear the Rangers? Their lineup is a beast and they run 3 lefties out there in their rotation. As good as the Tigers lineup sounds the Rangers lineup is that much more potent. They are in the top 3 in pretty much every offense category you can think of, go ahead try and think of something that the Rangers aren’t neck n’ neck with the Red Sox and Yankees in. The have speed (Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler), power (Kinsler, Mike Napoli, Nelson Cruz, and Adrian Beltre all are over 20 bombs with Josh Hamilton at 19), and the ever consistent Michael Young (.334 BA, 11 HR, 91 RBI).

The Red Sox got smoked by the Rangers in the first series of the season in Texas and this past series in Fenway where they lost 2 out of 3 by scores of 10-0 and 11-4. 3 of the Red Sox 4 wins this season vs. the Rangers came when righthanders Colby Lewis and Alexi Ogando were on the mound. When the Rangers lefties start games they are 6-1 against the hometown 9. A good lefty tends to give the left-handed heavy Red Sox starting lineup fits and Texas has a top notch one in C.J. Wilson. Since moving into the starting rotation last year Wilson has been getting better each start, 3.28 ERA, 14 wins, 173 SO in 192 IP, and a 1.20 WHIP in 2011, and hasn’t lost to the Red Sox in the past 2 years. Seeing him twice in a 5 games series would be a real problem for the Red Sox but unlike Detroit who has gruel behind Verlander the Rangers have Matt Harrison and Derek Holland waiting in the wings. Both pitchers have dominated the Sox this year and could easily take 1 out of the other 3 games to send the Rangers to the ALCS. At one point during August Holland threw 3 straight shoutouts. I don’t care who you are that’s never an easy feat to accomplish.

Their bullpen is also superior to that of the Tigres (that ones for you Dave Adam). The acquisitions of Mike Adams, Koji Uehara , and Mike Gonzalez have all also helped stabilize and cement the bridge from the staring pitchers to phenom closer Neftali Feliz, who hasn’t been as good as last year but still checks in with 26 saves and a 2.87 ERA. Hell, old friend Darren Oliver has even had a great year with a 2.17 ERA in 45.2 IP. You need another reason to pray that the Red Sox don’t draw the Rangers in round 1? Before taking 3 out of 4 from the Rangers at the Ballpark in Arlington this past month the Red Sox were 2-15 in Texas since 2009. That tidbit right there is reason enough to hope for the Tigers and their strategy of Verlander and pray for rain.

Until we cross paths again,

Geoff Jablonski