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Monday, September 5, 2011

State of the Nation's Pitching Staff

The Red Sox may be vying for the leagues best record, but their pitching staff right now has a lot of question marks. Let's look at them from Ace to Closer:

1) Josh Beckett- The most consistent pitcher on the staff of the year. Everyone that pitches for the Sox says that he's the Ace by the way he carries himself on the mound, in the clubhouse, and in between starts, and there is no question he certainly is. He may not be the best number 1 out there but he will give Verlander, Wilson, Sabathia, and Weaver a run for their money. He has been healthy for most of the year and barring an injury will get the start in Game 1 of the ALDS...As I write this, Josh Beckett has just been pulled from a game in Toronto with an ankle injury, shit.

2) Jon Lester- Jon Lester is handsdown my favorite pitcher on the staff but he has not been an ace. He has been a solid number 2 pitcher in 2011. He has struggled with his command at times which has lead to deeper counts and not getting as deep into games as he would like. Despite the lack of command he has the most wins on the staff and has a lower BAA and OBP than his career averages. His stuff is as electric as ever and is still one of the preeminent lefties in baseball.

3) Erik Bedard- You'll note I believe Erik Bedard will start Game 3 of the playoffs for the Red Sox. It is however dismaying that the Sox are holding him back a start. It seems to be precautionary in nature so I will not overreact until I hear he won't be back. He has pitched well since the trade, and finally got a W to show for it. He was the recipient of horrible luck in his first few starts with umpires, lack of run support, or uncharacteristic errors and hopefully he can stay healthy because without him the Sox have no chance in the post season.

4) John Lackey- Oh, how the mighty have fallen. He couldn't have had a better time to pitch his nuts off against the Sox in the '09 Division Series. He has been such a disappointment in every facet of pitching. He walks too many guys, gives up too many hits, his in-game persona sucks, and his postgame interviews are either malicious or unaccountable. He has the highest ERA in baseball among qualifying starters, his WHIP is the highest its been in his career, and its to the point where fans aren't hoping for a good start, they are hoping he doesn't dig too much of a hole for the offense to dig him out of.

5) Tim Wakefield/AndrewMiller- These guys will not factor into the post season from the rotation but Wakefield is who Wakefield is and Miller is a project that still has issues throwing strikes and repeating his delivery. Miller showed great promise coming back from the minors, but his inability to sustain velocity from one start to another and other times from pitch to pitch is concerning. One or both could get left off the playoff roster during different rounds.

6) Alfredo Aceves- Aceves has been the biggest surprise of the year for the Boston Red Sox. He is the first pitcher in baseball history to win 23 of his first 26 decisions and is one of the biggest weapons Boston has going for them out of the bullpen. He has the ability to not only give innings but quality innings usually in clutch and late situations in the game.

7) Bobby Jenks- Out for the year, most probable cause of injury, obesity.

8) Matt Albers- I've went into detail on his demise before so let's just say if he sees any meaningful innings that aren't out of necessity in the playoffs, Terry Francona should probably lose his otherwise cemented job.

9) Franklin Morales- I've never seen someone with such electric stuff be so inconsistent. He has actually been more effective against righties than lefties, so you may be better off just using Bard or Aceves to get out the lefties on the opposing teams. If he could consistently command the strike zone he would be a weapon out of the pen but I'm not sure if he can be trusted with a tie game or even a lead come playoff time.

10) Dan Wheeler- Since Mid-May has been one of the best relievers in baseball not just on the Red Sox. 2.84 ERA in the second half, a .217 Opponents BA and an OPS of .617. He will most likely be the 6th-7th inning man in October.

11) Daniel Bard- A very solid set up man but one thing that could come into play are his numbers at home are pretty different than his numbers on the road. 2.37 ERA on the road while only 1.9 at home. His WHIP is also higher on the road, which makes me question the ability to throw in difficult environments, i.e. the playoffs, going forward. Despite the discrepancy he is one of the games best set-up man and overpowering arms in baseball. I have confidence that good things happen when he is on the mound.

11) Jonathan Papelbon- After a season where he was just flat out not dominant, he is back to intimidating hitters and really being a sure thing in the 9th inning. He has the lowest WHIP since back in his Irish Jig dancing days. There are no questions about the closer and if he gets the ball handed to him the Sox are going to be in good position to win the game.

The Sox have 6 pitchers out of 11 that look good going into October: Beckett, Lester, Aceves, Bard, Wheeler and Papelbon. The bullpen looks like it could be serviceable but the Red Sox will need more than 2 starters to win the Fall Classic. Meanwhile the 2001 Diamondbacks laughed and said, "we didn't."

Stay Tuned

Norton

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