A Collapse of the Century?

When a baseball team is up 7 and ½ games with 22 games to play in order to clinch a playoff spot, mark that team down for October. If the Red Sox complete what they are on the verge of doing, you are talking about certainly the biggest choke job since 1978 in a Red Sox uniform.

You need to ask yourself a few questions.

1. Is this team capable of losing the lead and fail monumentally? Absolutely. Every person on the team is slumping right now wish the exception of Marco Scutaro and Jacoby Ellsbury. The pitching is in absolute disarray to the point where we have one established starter and then a myriad of has-been's and probably-won't-be's.
   
2. Is the team mentally strong enough to make the playoffs? I'm not entirely sure that this team has the "character" or "Heart of a Champion" as they say. Dustin Pedroia has it. He's in the lineup every day. Does anyone else? Erik Bedard? Clearly not. This is the first time he's pitched in September (I say that loosely because he's obviously not pitching right now) in about 5 years. I seem to recall someone getting their ankle sutured together just to get out on the mound for his teammates. Tape it up, be a leader. Carl Crawford? Not a chance. His mental approach to the game of baseball is garbage. When things don't go his way, or he's in a (season-long) slump he puts his head down and the tail goes between his legs. Some people are big fish in a small pond, but others are medium sized fish in a small pond, and when thrown into the ocean they drown spectacularly. John Lackey? He's about as useful right now as tits on a bull and I don't care if "I had great stuff", you need to go longer than 5 innings while not letting every runner that gets on base, cross home plate.
   
3. Does this team have the pitching? With a healthy Clay Buchholz and Josh Beckett, they have the pitching. When it's just Jon Lester and the Lack-ettes they don't. The collapse can single-handedly be pointed to the starting pitching. Look at their last time through the rotation:
   
   
   
   Sunday: Jon Lester, 4 IP, 4 ER
   
   Saturday: Kyle Weiland, 4 IP, 3 ER
   
   Friday: John Lackey, 3 IP, 5 ER
   
   Thursday: Andrew Miller, 5 IP, 5 ER
   
   Wednesday: Tim Wakefield, 5 IP, 4 ER
   
   
    
   I'm not sure how you rectify the situation with John Lackey. It's as if he expects to throw a no-hitter every time out and as soon as a runner gets on he's origami, folds under pressure. The first batter of every game right now is hitting .435 against John Lackey. The leadoff hitter of every inning is hitting .321. And teams are hitting .333 against him with RISP and a gaudy .325 with 2 outs and RISP. The rest of these numbers are so mind-bogglingly bad, I'm wondering how you can even think of starting him in the playoffs regardless of salary.
   
   
    
   For all intents and purposes, Weiland's start wasn't the worst thing I've ever seen. He showed a lot of sack just getting out of the first inning with 1 run, after walking the bases loaded. But, no one has gotten past the 5^th inning the last 5 times out. The bullpen is on fumes and you can't expect them to actually bail you out EVERY day. There's a reason pitchers are in the bullpen, because they are failed starters, 'nuff said.
   
   
    
   Jon Lester, although my personal binky, is not immune to criticism here. As an "Ace" when your team is on a losing streak or a tailspin in this case, it is your job to be a "stopper". His job was to stop the bleeding. Go deep into the game (7 innings minimum), stymie the opposition, and right the Red Sox ship when we needed him the most. On Sunday he pissed down his leg when his team needed him the most, and that was alarming. He needs to find his command, which has been spotty all season, and he has to find a way to be Roy Halladay or Justin Verlander for the 9 innings that he contributes. That is why Josh Beckett will start Game 1 if they get to the playoffs.
   
4. Is this team fundamentally ready to play down the stretch? Right now the Red Sox are playing sloppy. Carl Crawford is trying so hard to make a positive impact that he is actually becoming a detriment to the team both on defense and offense. One out, a man on first and a ball heads towards the gap, Crawford cuts it off and instead of hitting the cutoff man he throws directly to third base which gives the Rays' batter second base essentially erasing the double play. The Red Sox needed the double play still in order and trying to make an impact with his arm because he can't hit a lick, he put them in a worse place to finish the inning. How many times will Marco Scutaro and Jason Varitek be thrown out trying to take the extra base? Aggressive baserunning is permissible. But when you're down in the latter part of a game, a baserunner on first is a lot better than a guy going for a "hustle-double" and getting thrown out at second. If the team stops running themselves into outs and giving free bases to the opposition they are more than capable of winning the AL Wild Card but if they don't clean up the basic baseball principles they will lose.
   

 
There are 15 games left and the Red Sox hold a 3 game lead. They start a 9-game homestand 5 of which are against Baltimore and Toronto with Tampa Bay squished in the middle. Josh Beckett's side session puts him in line to be throwing one of the games against Tampa, which should add some sort of stability and hopefully leadership to a depleted starting staff.

For the people that say baseball isn't exciting this is as exciting as it gets. A team that's reeling and struggling to hang on to their lead, combined with a young underdog team trying to usurp the Wild Card spot. Big time players make big time plays and there is no bigger time than now for the Red Sox. Who is going to nut up and keep this team from one of the most monumental collapses in baseball history?

Stay Tuned

Norton