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Friday, October 28, 2011

Fantasy Forum: Sell High, Buy Low Candidates



It’s that time of year in fantasy football. In all of your leagues it’s become clear who’s a contender and who’s a pretender. For those of you in prime position to make a run at your leagues ‘Shiva Bowl’ (if you’re a dedicated follower of The League like I am you’ll know that this is a synonym for the championship) it’s time to start scavenging the bottom feeders’ rosters for upgrades. As a staff we have put together a group of 10 players, 5 in each category, to target or move along for parts from two categories: sell high or buy low. Editor Note:  All fantasy point totals are done using ESPN’s standard scoring system.

SELL HIGH CANDIDATES
Matthew Stafford, QB Detroit Lions
Stafford is currently the 5th ranked QB according to ESPN averaging 18.4 pts per game. Those numbers are deceiving though given that he hasn’t scored above 20 points since week 3 posting 14, 15, 19, and 11 points subsequently. Defenses are adjusting to the fact that Lions have no running game to speak of and as is always the case with Stafford injuries are starting to rear their ugly head again. He hasn’t made it through a full season in his young career due to an assortment of injuries. He’s made it thru the first 7 weeks this season but is questionable for week 8 with an ankle injury and has a slippery shoulder that could come out of joint at any moment. If you have the chance to flip Stafford for some quality at another position (RB, WR) you’ve been given the green light.

Mark Sanchez, QB New York Jets
The ‘Sanchize’ is currently the 10th ranked QB in ESPN scoring at 14.6 points per game. Sanchez has never thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in a season and he’s currently at +6 touchdowns to picks this year; that ratio will come back to earth before it’ll head the other direction. He’s also been a running threat like never before helping to buoy his stats in a positive direction. He’s been sitting in the 13 or 14-point range with one game at 26 and one disaster night against Baltimore at -4. I see him falling back to earth a little bit more and not scoring many games above 15 points the rest of the year. Also hurting his value is Rex Ryan’s desire to get back to ground n’ pound. Flip him to someone in your league who is convinced that a player’s ability to win in real football means anything in fantasy football.

Calvin Johnson, WR Detroit Lions
Megatron is sitting atop the WR rankings after 7 weeks and deservedly so. He chalked up 2 TD’s in each of the first 4 games of the year and has 10 on the year, not too shabby to say the least. Given that and the fact that he’s been down in scoring a little bit (11 and 17 past two weeks) and that Stafford appears destined for an injury I think that he’s the perfect guy to swap with someone for a stud RB that’ll help you out the rest of the year. Megatron is a great player don’t get me wrong but he’s not going to have another stretch as hot as the one he did in weeks 1-5. He’ll score around 15 points a game the rest of the year but if you can land a RB (maybe Adrian Peterson or Ray Rice) that has the potential and tends to sit around 20 points a game I say make the move. WR is also a very volatile position due to its dependence on the QB position I tend to think they are easier to replace than other positions.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR Arizona Cardinals
His wagon is attached to Kevin Kolb and that’s not a good thing. Fitz is a great talent and he will always get targets and yards but his numbers have a low ceiling due to Kolb’s inability to get Fitz the ball downfield. The only comparable talent when the ball is in the air deep is Calvin Johnson but the problem is Kolb isn’t a deep thrower. Fitzgerald hasn’t been a total fantasy stud since Kurt Warner retired and I don’t see that changing any time the rest of this year. He’s currently ranked 12th in ESPN formats but you can still sell him very high due to his name recognition and people’s desire to believe that Kevin Kolb is better than he really is. If you’ve got him and can get great value in return for him go right ahead and swing the deal.

Anquan Boldin, WR Baltimore Ravens
Another guy whose wagon is attached to the wrong QB and doesn’t have too many other WR weapons around him to help him out. The worst thing that ever happened for him and Larry Fitzgerald was them getting separated. They were both fantasy monsters during the Warner years in Arizona but since then they’ve both struggled due to poor QB play. If you saw the Ravens on Monday night against the Jaguars you know why if you have the opportunity to get something good in return for Boldin go ahead and do it. Joe Flacco is having a hell of a time trying to get him the ball and his numbers will suffer because of that.

BUY LOW CANDIDATES

Chris Johnson, RB Tennessee Titans
He’s the 31st ranked RB in ESPN’s rankings right now but his talents are going to show through eventually…right? He’s a good receiver out of the backfield and contributes 20 to 30 yards in the passing game week in and week out. This week has a matchup against the Colts horrific run defense. He should run wild against this week and get himself kicked into high gear and show that he was worthy of being picked first or second overall in most leagues. He did just run for 2,000 yards 2 years ago the talent and speed are there he just needs to put it all together. If you can get him for a backup RB2 or maybe a low WR2 or WR3 do it, now. He’s too good to suck for a full year.

Phillip Rivers, QB San Diego Chargers
17th ranked QB currently in ESPN’s rankings. Go get him as fast as you can as cheap as you can. His scoring this year looks like this: 17, 18, 6, 17, 17, 7. He’s a better player than that and has been a top 5 fantasy option for the past 3 years and he’s going to get back there. He’s had two real duds against the Jets (understandable) and Chiefs (not understandable) but otherwise he’s been solid. I expect him to get back towards the top 10 in fantasy QB rankings. All world TE Antonio Gates is also coming back from being injured during weeks 2-6, which will help out immensely.

Roddy White, WR Atlanta Falcons
Roddy’s the 13th ranked WR right now but that will go up. He’s a top 5 talent who has been hindered by Matt Ryan’s inability to get him the ball consistently. Julio Jones was supposed to help open up White but instead he’s been taking targets and receptions from White. Once the Falcons figure out how to use both of them effectively you’ll have two fantasy monsters on one team. He’s having a down year and has probably frustrated his owner to no end so if you can get him on the cheap make your move. Later in the year you’ll be pleased with your decision to buy low on him.

Jabar Gaffney, WR Washington Redskins
The Redskins have no other options and Gaffney is a reliable receiver. If you can find him on the waiver wire or get him for cheap go grab him. No. 1 WR Santana Moss is out for 5-7 weeks with a broken hand and TE Chris Cooley is done for the year. The only options left for the Redskins are TE Fred Davis and Gaffney. He’s going to get looks and he has some pretty reliable hands. Fantasy football is all about getting touches not whether or not the team is good. He’s going to have a bad QB throwing to him whether it’s Rex Grossman or John Beck but again volume equals points in fantasy football.

Plaxico Burress, WR New York Jets
After meandering thru the first 6 weeks of the season the Jets and Burress finally hooked up and realized how to properly use him leading to a huge week 7. Burress reeled in 3 touchdown passes and chalked up 20 points for his owners though he was probably sitting on most people’s bench. No matter what you think of Burress he’s a beast in the Red Zone and always has been. He’s a big lanky receiver with great hands and now that it appears the Jets have figured out that all you have to do is throw it up to him in the red area and he’ll come down with it. Why they didn’t just plug in tape of Eli Manning to Plaxico Burress from 06, 07, and 08 I don’t know but someone finally unearthed it and properly plugged Burress into the game plan. He’s going to score a lot of scores down the stretch, which equals lots of fantasy points. Go get him on the cheap.

Enjoy the fantasy tips,
Views from the Couch staff

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