Explaining John Farrell's Moves

John Farrell, like every other manager, coach or head of in-game decision making deserves to or at the very least is not immune to criticism. We should go over the in-game situations and whether it was a defensible decision.

(***Note: Do not base opinions on outcome, base it on thought process. No one likes a Monday Morning Quarterback.***)

Pitching to Evan Longoria with two outs, runners on 2nd and 3rd, First Base open: 

Many people drew parallels to what Joe Maddon should have done by letting Ortiz beat him with a man on third and two outs but the situation is completely different. At this point, as manager, you are already behind 2-0 and you don't want to go down 3-0 by arguably the hottest hitter on the team especially with strikeout machine Mike Napoli on deck. The move should have been to walk Ortiz.

However, while up 3-0 if you walk Longoria you are putting the tying run on first base. Myers hasn't done much throughout the series admittedly, a double ties the game but a home run in that situation puts the Rays ahead while a home run with Longoria although difficult to stomach, only ties the game.

The other aspect is Clay Buchholz history vs. Evan Longoria and it has been largely one-sided. Entering yesterday's game in 34 at-bats Longoria had 7 hits (.206 average), 0 home runs, and 13 strikeouts. That number of strikeouts is the most for Clay Buchholz vs any batter and conversely the most for Evan Longoria vs any pitcher. This is called domination by a pitcher versus a batter.

Longoria is undoubtedly the best player on the Rays, and you don't want the best player to beat you on most occasions. But given Buchholz and his gaudy numbers versus one of the leagues best and ultimately putting the tying run on base is risky. Hindsight says you shouldn't have pitched to him, however at the time the call is totally defensible and what I would have done knowing the batter history vs said pitcher. Pitch selection however is a completely different argument.

Farrell Decision: Defensible

Pinch Running Quintin Berry for David Ortiz in the 8th inning:

This is another move that people are judging based on the outcome and the hindsight of not having Ortiz up in the 9th inning.

Quintin Berry has one job on the team during this post season: pinch run for David Ortiz or Mike Napoli late in the game and steal the base or score the run.

David Ortiz led off the 8th inning with a walk. (Lead off base runners score almost 40% of the time) Given that there is only one regulation inning afterwards the odds of the Red Sox batting around to get back to Ortiz, not impossible, but slim. Ortiz is not fleet of foot so any ball in the gap it is a question whether he can score from first, however with Berry, it is a certainty. Also Berry gives you the stolen base factor which is one more thing for relievers to think about which means their full focus is not on the batter. If there are any outs I doubt Ortiz comes out of the game, but given that no men have been retired in the inning you need someone that can run in that situation.

Berry then stole the base while Mike Napoli was up, in turn giving the Red Sox three opportunities to hit with a runner in scoring position without sacrificing an out to get a runner to second base. Ultimately the Red Sox didn't get a hit in the next three at-bats and Ortiz is out of the game for its duration.

Berry came in and did the only job he has on this team and if you aren't going to use him in this situation when would you use him?

Farrell Decision: Defensible

NOT Pinch-Hitting Bogaerts for Drew with 2 outs in the 8th inning: 

Jake McGee is on the hill, very hard throwing lefty that is actually better against righties (.217) than lefties (.235).

Stephen Drew at the plate has a wretched .196 batting average on the year vs lefties.

Xander Bogaerts is on the bench, Jamey Wright (righty) warming up in the pen.

There comes a time when sticking with a player is detrimental to team success and that time comes when Stephen Drew faces lefties. If he starts the game versus a lefty I have no problem with it, but later in the game it is not beneficial to have a .196 hitter against a lefty especially one that has lefties only hitting .235 off of him. If the splits were above .250 for the year it could be an acceptable risk to let Drew bat.

Farrell's explanation:

"McGee has been dominant against right‑handed hitters. He's almost a right‑handed reliever in some ways because of the strong reverse splits he has," Farrell said. "Stephen is a good fastball hitter. We know McGee is going to come at us with 95 percent fastballs, if not more. There was no hesitation to leave Stephen at the plate."

*Full Disclosure: I understand there is a Small ML Sample Size here, however this is a player that EVERYONE expects to be handed the reigns at the beginning of next year. But we will use some Minor League Splits for a greater sample*

If Xander Bogaerts comes in the Rays might make a pitching change or they may let McGee face Bogaerts.

• If they let McGee face Bogaerts LHP vs RHB (.298 avg, .926 OPS)
• If the let Wright face Bogaerts RHP vs RHB ( .280 avg, .782 OPS)

The comment that "Stephen is a good fastball hitter" is also a bit contrite given that in a small sample size at the Major League level Bogaerts is hitting .600 against similar pitchers. Also, wouldn't you want a rookie batter up at the plate against a "one-trick pony" as McGee is with his fastball? If you want to take Ferrell's number at his words and you're getting 95% fastballs Bogaerts is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, the kid can hit a fastball, it would seem to at the very least be a push. 

If they make the pitching change then you get Jamey Wright on the hill, whom is a worse reliever than McGee and also his splits versus righties yield a .255 avg. 

So here's the decision:

Drew at .196 versus McGee .235 vs Lefties

Bogaerts at .298 versus McGee .217 Righties

Bogaerts at .280 versus Wright at .255 Righties

Most likely Maddon keeps McGee in the game and you get a slightly more-favorable matchup, albeit a big spot for a rookie, where a predominantly fastball pitching Southpaw versus a good fastball hitting right-handed batter

The decision Farrell made (letting Drew hit) was based largely on defense later in the game. But where you have already pinch ran for Ortiz in the inning you have already committed to needing this run to come in and assuring that you weakened your lineup for the right reasons. Not pinch hitting for Stephen Drew not only doesn't make sense it was borderline irresponsible. 

If, as a manager, you are unprepared to hit for a player with drastic splits as Drew has versus lefties and are that worried about his defense, then he should not be on the roster and John MacDonald should have gotten the roster spot. 

Farrell Decision: Indefensible

Shane Victorino bunting with runners on 1st and 2nd no one out in the 9th:

The semi-progressive baseball crowd saying, "you can't bunt with 1st and 2nd no one out, you're killing an inning" doesn't get it. 

While a runner on second with no one out has a 60% chance of scoring, all things being equal , a bunt gets you two runners in scoring position with Pedroia coming up. Great contact hitter. If Victorino doesn't get a hit you are looking at a 45% chance of getting the runner in with one out from second or a 54% chance of getting the run in with one out and the runner at 3rd.

It would be one thing if the personnel that you have bunting was incapable or unfamiliar to bunting but Shane Victorino is a virtual certainty at getting the bunt down. Therefore with one out you have a better than 50% chance of the run scoring with a guy that is in top 5 in the league in hardest to strike out.

Also, consider Victorino's thumb. A pitcher with a power sinker pounding him inside is asking for a weak ground ball to the left side and possible rally-killing double play.

Thinking ahead, they could possibly have intentionally walked Pedroia to get to Mike Carp who just a few weeks ago beat the Rays on a grand slam against a similar sinker ball pitcher. However, with a historically wild pitcher, Farrell made an educated guess thinking that they would pitch to Pedroia to give him some flexibility in case he walked someone. Also this move takes away Rodney's change-up. A pitch that frequently bounces in the dirt and gets away from the catcher, which leaves you with two players that feast on fastballs in Pedroia and Carp coming up in the next two batters.

Ultimately, he put his players in the best position to succeed with this decision. And the tying run ended up scoring so the juice was worth the squeeze.

Farrell Decision: Defensible

Very rarely are you going to see a successful double-switch in an American League game, which leads me to believe that the Rays got a little lucky, but sometimes its better to be lucky than good. The Red Sox are still in the drivers seat, and have an advantage going into Game 4 with Peavy getting the nod against Hellickson.

Stay Tuned

Norton

Oakland v Detroit preview

While you patiently await my Red Sox ALDS preview might as well preview the other AL match up.

Peripherals:

Oakland (96-66) won the season series from Detroit (93-69) 4 games to 3. Each team won one-run game.

While most people think the Tigers offense is a juggernaut, the Athletics have actually hit more home runs than the vaunted Motown Nine. The Tigers undoubtedly have the more well-known hitters and certainly have the advantage in batting average on the year, however the rest of the offensive stats are pretty close while leaning towards Detroit. This series should be very close and I expect it to go five games.

Oakland's defense and base running advantage can not be overlooked in this series. The Athletics have more than doubled the Tigers in steals on the year and I expect them to try and run as often as possible especially on Alex Avila and his Saltalamacchian 17% caught stealing percentage.

I will give the edge in overall offense to Detroit but its not a runaway. Base running and Defense give the edge to Oakland. If for some reason these two aspects of the game improve for Detroit or Oakland gets picked off/thrown out a lot, this series will be much shorter than the five games I see it at now.

Difference Makers:

This section we are going to look at the top 4 offensive catalysts for each team vs. the potential starters.

Just looking at Crisp's numbers I will make the educated guess that he will have the biggest impact offensively for the A's in this series followed by Donaldson who seems to be having one of "those years" and actually ended the year .1 WAR better than Miguel Cabrera. let that sink in.

Reddick whom already has numerous holes in his swing would seem to be destined for a rough series, but it's a short series and anyone can string a couple hits together during 5 days.

There are only 2 total career home runs by these four off the starting pitchers they are going to face both surprisingly by Coco Crisp, and despite their home run lead over the Tigers for the year, they have the capability to play small ball which may come into play given that runs may come at a premium in this series.

Cabrera obviously is one of the top 8 offensive players in Major League Baseball history, but his production vs these Oakland starters is impressive despite the relative small sample size. I would expect a ton of intentional walks and "not letting him beat you" out of the Athletics. (Note: Cabrera is not healthy, and although deserves attention, may not be the offensive force he usually is. It goes without saying without him being him this lineup can be pitched to.)

This would make Martinez probably the next bet to have a big series based on track record and history versus the Oakland starters. But each of these 4 has at least one home run against at least one of the pitchers.

Torii Hunter has 10 and 5 strikeouts respectively against Bartolo Colon and Jarrod Parker, he also has been handled well in a small sample size versus AJ Griffin.

Brass Balls:

Sometimes it's about stepping up when the light shines brightest and we need to look at the Postseason track records of the starters of these two series.

The Tigers starters as a whole have done a better job than Oakland in letting runners on base given that every pitchers WHIP is better than even the best WHIP of the Athletics. That should not go unnoticed.

However, I am starting to buy into the school of thought that Verlander can't pitch as well (or is not as good) in the postseason compared to the regular season. Maybe we should call him Peyton Verlander? I digress. His HR/9 goes up .6  and his ERA balloons in the postseason, which in 70 innings is a pretty substantial amount. I will not say that Verlander is a liability but his performance in October has not inspired ANY over-confidence. Sanchez however in 3 starts? Nails.

Griffin and Parker have had very little experience and Gray having none. Parker has had a rough go in 2 starts in the post season and Griffin was average in one start. I have watched 3 starts of Sonny Gray's, all Wins, and he is going to do EXACTLY what Matt Moore did to the Rangers in 2011. The fact that none of the Tigers have faced him only gives him an advantage and unless he turns into a puddle out on the mound, ala Rick Ankiel, I expect him to win his start no matter whom he is up against.

The Pens:

The Athletics have a decided advantage in bullpen. Although most would consider it a big advantage to be leading in GB% outside of Jose Iglesias everyone is below average on defense especially in range which means ground balls trickle through the holes a lot more often than most infield defenses.

If the Athletics can get into the Detroit bullpen they should have a wonderful opportunity against everyone except for Rondon who's 103 mph fastball is a tall task for nine Mike Trout's let alone the Oakland A's. But with Rondon being shut down at the end of the year his availability is still uncertain as of right this moment, along with fellow bullpen arm Phil Coke. This would be a significant disadvantage for the Tigers and one that could make for an early exit. If the starters get knocked around or run up the pitch count after six innings.

At the Helm:

While some may give the managing edge to Leyland because of pedigree I am not. I have watched him on multiple occasions this year run starters back out in the game when they had no reason to be out there, part of it because of a lack of confidence in the bullpen and the other part because he's a crotchety old-time baseball guy and believes his starters are borderline infallible.

I am however not giving the advantage to Bob Melvin either. Melvin has done a wonderful job guiding the A's to 2 consecutive playoff births and Division titles, but I haven't seen anything out of him that blows me away either. This is a Push.

Verdict:

The Tigers virtually eliminated themselves from World Series contention when they got no-hit by the Florida Marlins on the last day of the season. No team that has ever been no-hit in the regular season has ever went on to win the World Series. Science.

I will take Oakland in 5, because I believe that Verlander can be gotten to in the playoffs, for whatever reason, and I'm not sure why. But I can't remember a dominating performance out of him ever when the lights shine brightest. So, if he is pitching games 1 and 5 I'll take the Athletics.

Stay Tuned,

Norton

Do You Want Salt on That?

I've been called a lot of things, (just ask my ex-wife, HEY-O) but no one would ever call me someone that has been an advocate or a fan of Jarrod Saltalamacchia. That being said, the Red Sox are in quite the conundrum after the season with his impending free agency.

Saltalamacchia has by and large had a solid year offensively (ranked 7th in terms of raw power (ISO)) and has certainly improved to be a better catcher defensively than in years past. The pitchers do seem more comfortable with him yet you will still see the occasional terrible throw back to the mound to still make me nervous about his bout with the "yips". Derek Lowe spoke at length in a recent Red Sox broadcast about how much he appreciated David Ross because his throw was always perfect back to the mound which kept him in rhythm. All this withstanding he has been an integral part of the success of this team this year, admirably catching both ends of a double-dip and his ability to be in the lineup day after day.

My thoughts on this are simply this: Tell me who takes over for him and what's the cost.

There is one free agent catchers that I would consider "big name" (Brian McCann) and one trade candidate (Yan Gomes). For those of you saying, "what the hell is a Yan Gomes?", he is the backup/timeshare catcher for the Indians with Carlos Santana and Kelly Shoppach.


How do they stack up against one another offensively?

 I would say Gomes' 2013 is every bit as impressive as Saltalamacchia and McCann's despite having fewer at bats. Catchers typically blossom a little later in their careers compared to other position players and while Salty and McCann are in their respective primes Gomes is approaching his and doesn't become a free agent until 2019. These three are clearly head and shoulders above Ruiz offensively.

The UBR stat takes into account all base running scenarios (taking the extra base, tagging up and advancing etc.) Saltalamacchia is the leader in this category and given John Farrell's mantra of taking the extra base, and the fact that been very fortunate lately with a few steals it is not a surprise, but Gomes is a much faster base runner.

Looking at wOBA, which is a wonderful stat that measures a hitter's overall offensive value, it shows that Gomes, McCann and Saltalamacchia are well above average in terms of overall offensive value. Gomes also has created 33% more runs than league average which for a player that has not yet reached his prime is quite remarkable. He is ranked 33rd in terms of wRC+ of all players with at least 300 plate appearances ahead of the likes of Buster Posey, Evan Longoria and Prince Fielder. This is what we call a diamond in the rough.

I included a new stat called 'Dollars' which is basically what the player is worth given their performance. if you divide it by their WAR it comes out to be approximately 5 million per Win. Yan Gomes has been worth 3.6 Wins Above Replacement this year which totals to be about $17.8 million. When you consider the fact that he is not even arbitration eligible this is one of the biggest bargains in baseball this year.

While you want every player on your team to be well-rounded I place an importance on catcher defense because of the ripple effect that it has on the rest of the team especially the pitching staff. If a pitcher has the confidence of his catcher that he will control the running game, or block a pitch in the dirt, it is one less thing that he has to worry about and can focus more of his effort on the execution of his pitches.

I'll let Fangraphs explain how they quantify Catcher Defense:

"Like all defensive stats, both rSB and RPP are centered around 0, meaning that a score of zero is considered league average. Scores above zero are good, and those below zero are bad.

Note: these values are for each stat separately. If you would like tiers for catcher defensive value in total, double the values of the above tiers in order to get a quick-and-dirty estimate."

Given these metrics how do our candidates measure?

If you do as Fangraphs 'Note' tells you and add up rSB and RPP you will get the following:

Gomes 5.9
McCann 2.2
Saltalamachhia -1.6

This would put Gomes' defense at just about 'Great', McCann at slightly 'Above Average' and Jarrod Saltalamacchia approaching 'Below Average' in total catcher defense.

While Saltalamcchia has thrown out more runners than the other two he has been attempted on about twice as many times which speaks to the fact that the other teams don't fear his arm behind the plate and are daring him to throw them out, which he has been below average at best at in his career. This does not bode well for a long-term catcher as well whom will only get slower and less agile with age.

Numbers however are not the only factors when considering a player. McCann had shoulder surgery this past off season and for a position that throws just as many throws as the pitcher this is somewhat worrisome. Saltalamacchia and Gomes have not had major injuries to key body parts.

As mentioned Saltalamacchia's throwing is something that would need to be taken into consideration as the "yips" is something that could rear its ugly head at anytime, before doling out something long-term.

With McCann being the sexiest name as far as catchers go he will almost assuredly cost more than all the other catchers. I would guess that he gets at least a three to four year deal somewhere other than Atlanta, but if I am the Red Sox I pass on him at that length and being that he will be on the wrong side of 30 come next Spring Training.

Gomes will cost something in a trade, given his age, production, non-injury history and value (in terms of salary). Therefore you have to weigh, is what you're giving up plus the savings on Salty's contract demands worth it? I would say that one of the Indians needs is starting pitching which you could deal from a relative surplus depending on their demands. In the off season would you hesitate dealing the year of Jake Peavy an established veteran pitcher straight up for Gomes? I would. Or what about someone else who was cost-controllable like Doubront or Workman? I wouldn't think twice about this either. If Cleveland started talking about players like Barnes or Owens, then you'd certainly balk. But what about Webster? I digress.

Saltalamacchia is making 4.5 million this year so what would I deem to be an acceptable contract? At roughly the same age John Buck got a contract of 3 years 18 million. I believe Saltalamacchia is worth more than that. 3 years 23 million is the most that I would go for Saltalamacchia. I would go no longer than three years and while the money could fluctuate it is about length of contract not overall value. However, he is not a 10 million dollar per year player. Looking at just the salary, he would get a 3.1 million dollar raise per year for the next 3 years from his current salary which is a 70% pay raise from his current salary. You don't break the bank for flawed players, and given his age and current skill set this offer is more than fair.

There aren't many options but there are some. While the best option is to look into the trade market, ultimately I think the Red Sox strike a deal with Saltalamacchia and hope Blake Swihart makes strides in the minor leagues to supersede him in the future.

Stay Tuned,
Norton

Outfield Paying the Bills

Many people are looking for an explanation of how the "gritty", bearded Red Sox are pulling off such an outstanding season when most people, (I'm not most people), wrote them off before the first pitch. I'd say a healthier and more consistent rotation plays the biggest part, but I would say that the Red Sox outfield is the next place to look for an explanation to such a competitive, enthralling season.

Ellsbury and Victorino are two of the top three outfielders in the AL in terms of Wins Above Replacements. Given how remarkable they have been their WAR combined is only 1.2 WAR above Mike Trout aka Jesus Christ in velour pants. Anyway, back to the point, all of the teams that have two outfielders on the list above are very much alive in the playoff race, however The Red Sox have all three of their starting outfielders in the top 16 in the AL as well. (All of the outfielders on the chart qualify for the batting title in terms of PA).

First and foremost the Red Sox have stayed healthy this season. The list above had only 4 teams of the 12 that had 3 outfield candidates that earned enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. However, even without having Mike Trout the Red Sox have had the most productive outfield in the American League. Not including the Angels, because they are the outlier, look (below and to the left) at the next five teams in terms of outfield production: Orioles, Athletics Tigers, Rangers and Yankees. It's not a coincidence that these teams are in the thick of the pennant chases given that they are getting the production they are.

Ellsbury and Victorino have been dynamic at the top of the order. Ellsbury has 20 more stolen bases than his nearest competitor and is statistically the best base runner of all the outfielders that qualify. Not only has he had a very good offensive season with free agency pending, he has been the second best defensive outfielder on this list as well. The foot injury is troubling, but with a 7.5 game lead the Red Sox have the luxury of sitting him out. He played with it and stole bases for a week so I'm not entirely worried about the rest of this season however going into the off season I would have no choice but to bring up another injury when negotiating a deal, and I do think they need to explore a deal. (I'll save that for another post)

Ellsbury defensively, was second only, to Shane Victorino. I predicted that the Red Sox would sign Victorino based on other acquisitions the day before he was signed, and also had spoke about how solid his defense would be in Fenway Park. I however had no idea we would be getting a vintage Evans performance in the largest RF in the Bigs. It also should not go unnoticed that Victorino has done a lot of his damage within the last month almost exclusively batting from the right side even against righties due to lingering hip and hamstring issues. The guy plays hurt and is still effective while playing with nagging injuries. It does not fall by the wayside Shane, I see you, I see you.

(Sidenote: Major League hitters can hit fastballs, from any side of the plate. Michael Young said, "a Major League hitter can time a jet engine." The biggest problem for a switch hitter going from seeing only the opposite arm throwing at him, is breaking pitches going a direction than they are used to. Yet he is continuing to get and mash fastballs. What kind of advanced scouting is happening? I can't be the only person that knows this, right?)

Daniel Nava has gone from relative obscurity to a full-fledged starting outfielder in the major leagues. He ranks 16th in terms of outfield Wins Above Replacement and for a guy that used to be the towel boy at his college baseball team, 1.6 Wins better than Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton and Nick Markakis this year makes all the difference in the world for a team that won 69 games last year. Daniel Nava was an afterthought coming into the season, so much so that Bill James didn't even have him in any projected lineup and had Ryan Kalish projections ahead of his. How many games has Ryan Kalish played at any level this year again? He very well could get Comeback Player of the Year if John Lackey wasn't in the same league.

This is not to belittle the contributions of Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz or any of the infield, but the outfield is far and away the best trio in the American League. It is not a surprise they are leading in run differential along with the best record in the Majors given the production they are receiving from foul pole to foul pole.

Stay Tuned,

Norton

The Lackey Effect

The Red Sox don't have a starting pitcher that is as revered as Kershaw or Hernandez. But what they have in John Lackey this season is better than most and right now, he is the best healthy pitcher the Red Sox have. The healthy part of the Red Sox rotation right now looks as follows:

John Lackey has been the most consistent pitcher for the Red Sox all year and leads the staff in just about all advanced pitching metrics. But the fact that he doesn't lead the team in Wins is no where near indicative of how he has pitched. He has the lowest run support on the team at 3.77 with the other pitchers receiving almost 2 more full runs per game. Just to beat home the point of his lack of run support contributing to his losing record check the infographic below.

This is once again not to slight the season that Scherzer has had, but he gets more run support than any pitcher the Red Sox has and his win-loss record displays that. The Red Sox have been  shutout six times during John Lackey's starts. In baseball terms, we call that "shit luck".

In looking at the pitchFX section on Fangraphs it shows me the following velocity tidbits for John Lackey:

The striking thing is that he is only (on season's average) throwing .1mph harder than he was with a torn UCL in 2011. So what can we attribute this resurgence in John Lackey just looking at his velocity especially if you consider he's throwing his fastball at the same speed?

Look at his secondary pitches, mostly his cutter (more of a slider) they are all slower than his 2011 version which creates more of a speed change to deal with as a hitter. In 2011, his elbow was torn and was most likely over-gripping his pitches to try and create some sort of feel. Now, in 2013, he is throwing pain-free which allows more confidence in snapping off a curve ball harder, yet gripping the ball softer in your hand. (Note: The harder two-seam fastball, also a big weapon, could explain the more than 7% jump in GB% from 2011 to 2013)

This is where I make a proclamation I never thought I would make: John Lackey is potentially your Game 1 starter for the playoffs when (not if) they clinch. 

A healthy Buchholz, for me, is a difference maker in winning the pennant but he doesn't need to start Game 1 of the playoffs and personally I don't want him starting the first game of the playoffs unless he is the pitcher he was at the beginning of the season, not something close to the pitcher, but THE pitcher.

Here are the postseason numbers for each of the starters including Buchholz:

Both Lester and Lackey are "battle-tested" very good pitchers in the playoffs with Lester pitching better despite a smaller sample. Buchholz pitched well in one start in 2008 and Peavy did not pitch well in two starts for San Diego pre-surgery but is now a different pitcher in terms of stuff on a team with a much better offense than his previous foray into October. Doubront has not yet experienced postseason baseball.

There are multiple outcomes for the playoff rotation all of which hinge on how Clay Buchholz pitches down the stretch:

• Buchholz comes back and is just as dominant as he was in April and May then he should be the number one starter because given how much better he was than most other pitchers in the AL not just the Red Sox he gives you the best chance of winning Game 1. (Rotation: Buchholz, Lackey, Lester, Peavy**)
• Buchholz comes back and is not as dominant but is another above average pitcher then he would be slotted in the third spot in the rotation behind Lackey and Lester, in that order. (Rotation: Lackey, Lester, Buchholz, Peavy)
• Buchholz comes back and doesn't have it. This is not far-fetched. He has not pitched at the Major League-level in 3 months and now he's thrust into a pennant race. Despite pitching in the minors, there is a lot of rust to shake off and he may not have it. In which case, you leave Buchholz off the playoff roster entirely.  You are not going to put a player in the bullpen and ask him to pitch high leverage innings with questionable health and/or stuff to get the job done. (Rotation: Lackey, Lester, Peavy, Doubront)

**Why Peavy and not Doubront? Second half performances trend towards Peavy, and you are not trading away a young controllable player in Iglesias to sit Peavy if comparable performances are equal. "Peave" gets the nod. Other moves in the bullpen would be made for L-R balance. 

Winning the game is ultimately the most important thing, however being the winning pitcher isn't. John Lackey has not only earned his spot in the playoff rotation, but atop the rotation is best for all parties.

Stay Tuned,
Norton