NFL Playoff Picture Part II: NFC

Where the AFC has 9 the NFC has 8. I’m not going to count the Philadelphia Eagles at 4-7 who currently sit in 9^th as contenders moving forward so we’re going to draw the line at the 8^th seeded New York Giants and their 6-5 record. There hasn’t been a bigger disappointment than the Flopadelphia Eagles and their “Dream Team” – great call by the backup QB and same guy who went A.W.O.L. for 4 days last year after being pulled from the Titans starting lineup. The Eagles thought you could win championships on paper well they were rudely awakened and won’t be drinking playoff champagne this year. But like yesterday with Tim Tebow this isn’t going to be a pile on the Eagles column but rather a look at the entire National Football Conference. Even though the Packers and Niners have sewed up their respective divisions there is still a lot to play for in the other 4 spots. Let’s take a look at the contenders and then break ‘em down from there like we did in the AFC piece, which is linked here in case you missed it. The NFC top 8:

1.      Green Bay Packers (11-0)

2.      San Francisco 49ers (9-2)

3.      New Orleans Saints (8-3)

4.      Dallas Cowboys (7-4)

5.      Chicago Bears (7-4)

6.      Atlanta Falcons (7-4)

7.      Detroit Lions (7-4)

8.      New York Giants (6-5)

The NFC Norris division (that ones for you Chris Berman) and the West races are all over the only race to be watched coming out of those two divisions is whether or not the Packers can be the third team in history and second since 2007, your New England Patriots of course being the first, to play a clean regular season slate. Looking at their remaining schedule I think the Packers have a very good chance of going 16-0 with three of their remaining games at the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field and road games against the suddenly reeling Giants and Kansas City Chiefs. I’m going to take the Packers to finish 15-1 however since every team is destined for a stinker each year and the Packers frankly don’t play much defense at all. One down game from Aaron Rodgers and his WR corps and the Packers chalk one up in the loss column. Out in the NFC West the 49ers really haven’t been challenged all year and can clinch the division with a win this weekend. Jim Harbaugh has brought in a new energy and attitude to a team that desperately needed it and has responded accordingly ripping off 8 straight wins before losing the Harbaugh bowl on Thanksgiving 16-6 to the Ravens. They’ll be your 2 seed and earn a bye through the wild card weekend. Cowboys are running hot Tony Romo is throwing the ball the best he has in the past few years and DeMarco Murray is the feature back the Cowboys thought they had in Felix Jones. Though’ll hold off a surprisingly weak NFC East and wrap up the 4^th seed behind the NFC South winner.

That leaves us with 6 teams vying for 3 spots with only the Saints as clear favorites to get into the playoffs after their 49-24 shellacking of the G-Men on Monday night. Speaking of the G-Men I’m going to start off the elimination process with them, their 6-5 record, and 3 straight losses.

After they beat the Patriots 24-20 a month ago at Gillette Stadium the Giants were sitting pretty atop the NFC East holding a 6-2 record and a 2 game lead over the Dallas Cowboys. Fast forward three weeks and the G-Men are now on the outside looking in losers of three in a row and limping into a matchup with the undefeated Green Bay Packers and all World QB Aaron Rodgers. With their lack of a running game and Eli Manning falling back to Earth after a scorching start to the season the Giants are a team headed in the wrong direction and this isn’t something new. During the Tom Coughlin Era the Giants are 24-34 after the month of October. This year is no different and with a tough schedule down the stretch, Packers, Cowboys twice, Jets, and Redskins, the G-Men are going to be sitting in that 8 spot when the playoffs begin.

In a mild upset the other team I’m going to eliminate is the Caleb Hanie led Chicago Bears. If jay Cutler hadn’t broken his right thumb and been forced out of the rest of the regular season I would’ve taken them over the Detroit Lions were appear to be slightly too green for the playoffs but caught a break, pun, with the Cutler injury. If I write this column two weeks ago after the Bears housed the Lions 37-13 and Cutler was still their starter the Lions would be the pick but alas that’s why they play the games. Matt Forte is a stud but other than the Chicago offense is junk and no one on their offensive line would start for the LSU Tigers or Alabama Crimson Tide. Their defense and return games are still pretty strong but they won’t be able to hide Hanie well enough to hold onto their playoff spot. Lions are in, Bears are out.

Speaking of those Lions I’m just going to write a small piece on them since I’m going out on a limb and saying that their going to make the playoffs for the first time ever. Ok so not ever but in a really really long time. Their offense is explosive to say the least but the team struggles on the defensive side of the ball and their best defensive player, Ndamukong Suh, just got suspended 2 games for being a whack job. The Lions have a decently hard schedule down the stretch but as long as they can win 3 out of 5 they’re in. 10 wins gets them to the promise land they’ve longed to graze in for ages. Matthew Stafford is the real deal and he was the right pick at the top of the 2009 NFL Draft. Keep throwing the ball to Megatron Matty and you’ll be a-ok.

Finally let’s take a look at the NFC South race. Both teams, the Falcons and Saints are going to get in the playoffs but the division is still an open race. After a sluggish game against the putrid Rams the Saints have turned it on big time. They’ve won 3 straight and put up almost 600 yards on the Giants Monday night. Drew Brees is playing MVP caliber and would probably win that award if Aaaron Rodgers hadn’t decided to have a nearly flawless regular season. The true key to finding a division winner will come in week 16 when the Saints and Falcons tussle in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Both teams have a weak schedule besides the matchup against one another and I’m going to give the advantage to the Saints in that game. The Falcons schedule looked tougher before the Texans got forced down to TJ Yates and Jake Delhomme. It’s a home game and the Saints appear to be trending upwards quickly. The Falcons won’t be left out in the cold though they’ll draw the Cowboys in the 4 vs. 5 matchup during the wild card weekend.

There you have it folks the NFC playoff picture just got a little clearer for you let me know what you think. Until the next time we cross paths.

Geoff Jablonski

Fantasy Forum: Sell High, Buy Low Candidates

It’s that time of year in fantasy football. In all of your leagues it’s become clear who’s a contender and who’s a pretender. For those of you in prime position to make a run at your leagues ‘Shiva Bowl’ (if you’re a dedicated follower of The League like I am you’ll know that this is a synonym for the championship) it’s time to start scavenging the bottom feeders’ rosters for upgrades. As a staff we have put together a group of 10 players, 5 in each category, to target or move along for parts from two categories: sell high or buy low. Editor Note:  All fantasy point totals are done using ESPN’s standard scoring system.

SELL HIGH CANDIDATES

Matthew Stafford, QB Detroit Lions

Stafford is currently the 5^th ranked QB according to ESPN averaging 18.4 pts per game. Those numbers are deceiving though given that he hasn’t scored above 20 points since week 3 posting 14, 15, 19, and 11 points subsequently. Defenses are adjusting to the fact that Lions have no running game to speak of and as is always the case with Stafford injuries are starting to rear their ugly head again. He hasn’t made it through a full season in his young career due to an assortment of injuries. He’s made it thru the first 7 weeks this season but is questionable for week 8 with an ankle injury and has a slippery shoulder that could come out of joint at any moment. If you have the chance to flip Stafford for some quality at another position (RB, WR) you’ve been given the green light.

Mark Sanchez, QB New York Jets

The ‘Sanchize’ is currently the 10^th ranked QB in ESPN scoring at 14.6 points per game. Sanchez has never thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in a season and he’s currently at +6 touchdowns to picks this year; that ratio will come back to earth before it’ll head the other direction. He’s also been a running threat like never before helping to buoy his stats in a positive direction. He’s been sitting in the 13 or 14-point range with one game at 26 and one disaster night against Baltimore at -4. I see him falling back to earth a little bit more and not scoring many games above 15 points the rest of the year. Also hurting his value is Rex Ryan’s desire to get back to ground n’ pound. Flip him to someone in your league who is convinced that a player’s ability to win in real football means anything in fantasy football.

Calvin Johnson, WR Detroit Lions

Megatron is sitting atop the WR rankings after 7 weeks and deservedly so. He chalked up 2 TD’s in each of the first 4 games of the year and has 10 on the year, not too shabby to say the least. Given that and the fact that he’s been down in scoring a little bit (11 and 17 past two weeks) and that Stafford appears destined for an injury I think that he’s the perfect guy to swap with someone for a stud RB that’ll help you out the rest of the year. Megatron is a great player don’t get me wrong but he’s not going to have another stretch as hot as the one he did in weeks 1-5. He’ll score around 15 points a game the rest of the year but if you can land a RB (maybe Adrian Peterson or Ray Rice) that has the potential and tends to sit around 20 points a game I say make the move. WR is also a very volatile position due to its dependence on the QB position I tend to think they are easier to replace than other positions.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR Arizona Cardinals

His wagon is attached to Kevin Kolb and that’s not a good thing. Fitz is a great talent and he will always get targets and yards but his numbers have a low ceiling due to Kolb’s inability to get Fitz the ball downfield. The only comparable talent when the ball is in the air deep is Calvin Johnson but the problem is Kolb isn’t a deep thrower. Fitzgerald hasn’t been a total fantasy stud since Kurt Warner retired and I don’t see that changing any time the rest of this year. He’s currently ranked 12^th in ESPN formats but you can still sell him very high due to his name recognition and people’s desire to believe that Kevin Kolb is better than he really is. If you’ve got him and can get great value in return for him go right ahead and swing the deal.

Anquan Boldin, WR Baltimore Ravens

Another guy whose wagon is attached to the wrong QB and doesn’t have too many other WR weapons around him to help him out. The worst thing that ever happened for him and Larry Fitzgerald was them getting separated. They were both fantasy monsters during the Warner years in Arizona but since then they’ve both struggled due to poor QB play. If you saw the Ravens on Monday night against the Jaguars you know why if you have the opportunity to get something good in return for Boldin go ahead and do it. Joe Flacco is having a hell of a time trying to get him the ball and his numbers will suffer because of that.

BUY LOW CANDIDATES

Chris Johnson, RB Tennessee Titans

He’s the 31^st ranked RB in ESPN’s rankings right now but his talents are going to show through eventually…right? He’s a good receiver out of the backfield and contributes 20 to 30 yards in the passing game week in and week out. This week has a matchup against the Colts horrific run defense. He should run wild against this week and get himself kicked into high gear and show that he was worthy of being picked first or second overall in most leagues. He did just run for 2,000 yards 2 years ago the talent and speed are there he just needs to put it all together. If you can get him for a backup RB2 or maybe a low WR2 or WR3 do it, now. He’s too good to suck for a full year.

Phillip Rivers, QB San Diego Chargers

17^th ranked QB currently in ESPN’s rankings. Go get him as fast as you can as cheap as you can. His scoring this year looks like this: 17, 18, 6, 17, 17, 7. He’s a better player than that and has been a top 5 fantasy option for the past 3 years and he’s going to get back there. He’s had two real duds against the Jets (understandable) and Chiefs (not understandable) but otherwise he’s been solid. I expect him to get back towards the top 10 in fantasy QB rankings. All world TE Antonio Gates is also coming back from being injured during weeks 2-6, which will help out immensely.

Roddy White, WR Atlanta Falcons

Roddy’s the 13^th ranked WR right now but that will go up. He’s a top 5 talent who has been hindered by Matt Ryan’s inability to get him the ball consistently. Julio Jones was supposed to help open up White but instead he’s been taking targets and receptions from White. Once the Falcons figure out how to use both of them effectively you’ll have two fantasy monsters on one team. He’s having a down year and has probably frustrated his owner to no end so if you can get him on the cheap make your move. Later in the year you’ll be pleased with your decision to buy low on him.

Jabar Gaffney, WR Washington Redskins

The Redskins have no other options and Gaffney is a reliable receiver. If you can find him on the waiver wire or get him for cheap go grab him. No. 1 WR Santana Moss is out for 5-7 weeks with a broken hand and TE Chris Cooley is done for the year. The only options left for the Redskins are TE Fred Davis and Gaffney. He’s going to get looks and he has some pretty reliable hands. Fantasy football is all about getting touches not whether or not the team is good. He’s going to have a bad QB throwing to him whether it’s Rex Grossman or John Beck but again volume equals points in fantasy football.

Plaxico Burress, WR New York Jets

After meandering thru the first 6 weeks of the season the Jets and Burress finally hooked up and realized how to properly use him leading to a huge week 7. Burress reeled in 3 touchdown passes and chalked up 20 points for his owners though he was probably sitting on most people’s bench. No matter what you think of Burress he’s a beast in the Red Zone and always has been. He’s a big lanky receiver with great hands and now that it appears the Jets have figured out that all you have to do is throw it up to him in the red area and he’ll come down with it. Why they didn’t just plug in tape of Eli Manning to Plaxico Burress from 06, 07, and 08 I don’t know but someone finally unearthed it and properly plugged Burress into the game plan. He’s going to score a lot of scores down the stretch, which equals lots of fantasy points. Go get him on the cheap.

Enjoy the fantasy tips,

Views from the Couch staff