The NFL Final Four

And then there were four…

The NFL season has been going on now for a calm, cool 18 weeks and week 19 is here to determine who will square off in the big one: the Super Bowl at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The conference championship games will be played this Sunday with the AFC pitting the Baltimore Ravens against the New England Patriots and the NFC showcasing the New York Giants at the San Francisco 49ers at 3 and 6:30 PM, respectively. The games will be taking place as far away as possible with the Patriots and 49ers playing host to some hostile guests. Since there are only two matchups on the docket for this weekend each blogger has provided not only a pick of who will win each game but a score as well for all you degenerate gamblers out there wondering whether or not to take the points or the over/under. The favorites will have the amount they favored by in parentheses with the over/under being listed below.

(2) Baltimore Ravens at (1) New England Patriots (-7.5) Over/Under: 50.5 pts

This game is a rematch of the 2009 playoff matchup that sent the Patriots into their two-year playoff-losing spiral. The Ravens drubbed the Pats 33-14 with Ray Rice setting the pace early by scampering for a 83-yard TD run on the first play from scrimmage. It only got worse from their for the hometown Patriots as Tom Terrific only completed about half his passes for 154 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs. Joe Flacco only completed 4 passes for 34 yards on that fateful day but it didn’t matter as Ray Rice ran for 159 yards on 22 carries and 2 of the Ravens 4 TDs on the ground. One major factor that people tend to forget about that horrific loss by the Patriots is that Wes Welker didn’t play in that game after blowing out his ACL during a meaningless week 17 matchup with the Houston Texans. The Patriots were a one-dimensional team then and they are now but without Welker they couldn’t even be one-dimensional.

What does that playoff defeat by the Patriots have to do with the week’s matchup? Well, it has a good amount to do with it because I’m sure that stinging defeat is going to be fresh in the minds of multiple Patriots who were embarrassed on their home field by a very similar Ravens team only two years ago.  Tom Brady is a man on a mission right now knowing that if he can get back to the Super Bowl and win it that’ll put him in the upper echelon of the all time great QBs along with the only other two men to win 4 Super Bowls: Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw. Brady is fully aware of his legacy and knows that he has a chance to do something few others have ever had the chance of doing. If he can win on Sunday and propel his team to the Super Bowl he’ll be making his 5th Super Bowl start in a 10-year period. The only other person who has made 5 Super Bowl starts is John Elway and he did that over a 12-year period. Brady has a chance to cement his place in the pantheon of great QBs and I don’t see him letting an aging but still dangerous Ravens defense stand in his way.

For the Ravens the key is taking Hernandez out of the game. With his newfound skills as a running back Hernandez has become even more of a dynamic threat. Hernandez has become the absolute matchup nightmare for defensive coordinators between his ability to lineup in the backfield, run like a wide receiver, and muscle defenders off the ball like a tight end a la Gronk. He is the perfect complement to both Gronkowski and Wes Welker. The Ravens are exceptional at stopping the run thanks to a solid linebacking corps and the two-headed monster up front of Haloti Ngata and Cory Redding. In the passing game however the Ravens defense isn’t as formidable as past years. The cornerback position has become somewhat of a revolving door with LaDarius Webb being the only recognizable name and at safety Ed Reed still is a ball hawk like no other but he isn’t the same Ed Reed as two years ago. Injuries to his hips and ankles have helped slow him a little bit. Don’t underestimate this group though they can still hold any offense under 24 points and keep the offense in the ballgame. Speaking of the offense…

The Ravens offense starts and ends with Ray Rice. He’s the team’s leading rusher and leading pass catcher. For all the things Joe Flacco isn’t the one thing he can most certainly do is throw the ball deep to rookie WR Torrey Smith. Smith hauled in 7 TD receptions this year and they were all of the long bomb variety. Anquan Boldin is still a threat that needs close monitoring between the 20s but he isn’t much of a red zone threat. If TEs Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta sit down in the soft spots in the zone and make catches they can cause some problems too but in the end it all comes down to Rice. It’s up to the Patriots patchwork defense to keep Rice from grounding and pounding them into the ground and working the clock against the Patriots. If Rice and the Ravens can get some traction early and keep the ball out of Brady’s hands while putting up some points then the home team could be in for a long dog fight. This ballgame will come down to who can contribute more on the offensive side of the ball: Ray Rice or Tom Brady.

Picks: Geoff – NE 31-17, Norton – NE 27-17, Lang – NE 35-17, ZHawk – NE 34-21

(4) New York Giants at (2) San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) Over/Under: 42 pts

In the nightcap the New York GMen will be making the long cross-country flight out to the city of hills San Francisco. To no surprise to any football fan out there the Giants for like the 10th consecutive season did their best to be named football’s Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde. You never know what you’re going to get from them when they step on the football field. Are they the team that unseated the number one seed and overwhelming favorite 15-1 Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field or the squad that got blown out much worse than the score shows in a 23-10 home game against the ghastly Washington Redskins? The Giants had an up and season to say the least finishing at 9-7 scraping into the playoffs as the NFC East champion after the Cowboys shit the bed down the stretch. The Giants started 6-2 after beating the Patriots in Foxboro then fell to 7-7 after the abysmal loss to the ‘Skins and now are slight favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (bettors side note: though the 49ers are ‘favored’ by 2.5 pts that technically means the Giants are favored by a half a point because every home team is generally given a 3 point cushion at home).

The 49ers on the other hand have been the model of consistency all year long. They were 6-2 on the road, 7-1 at home. They won blowouts and they won close games that came down to the wire. They’ve won ball games by playing stellar defense against both the run and the pass, they didn’t give up their first rushing TD on the year until week 17, and hoarding the ball on offense while allowing David Akers to kick mass quantities of field goals. For the most part the 49ers don’t put up big points with QB Alex Smith going from bust to turnover free game manager this year basically working carefully between the 20s. Their biggest threats on the offensive side of the ball are RB Frank Gore, when he’s healthy, WR Michael Crabtree, whose really come on as of late, and physical freak TE Vernon Davis. Davis was a force to be reckoned with against the Saints last week and if he can play like that again this week then watch out below Giants’ fans. If the 49ers get the ground game working early and open up some holes for Smith to pick apart a decimated Giants secondary it could be a good day for 49ers fans to start dreaming of a trip to Indianapolis, never thought I’d ever say anyone is ‘dreaming’ of Indianapolis but this year all four of these teams are.

The key to this game for most people though is, again, what version of the Giants is going to walk out onto the field Sunday evening (afternoon out west) at Candlestick Park? If the Giants team that has been steamrolling through the playoffs shows up the 49ers defense better be their usual dominant selves or else the Niners’ offense is going to be forced into a shootout for the second straight week. They barely survived last week against the ultimate track meet champion New Orleans Saints and I don’t know if rookie coach Jim Harbaugh has enough bullets in the chamber to succeed two weeks in a row by deviating so far from the teams typical game plan. The Giants have been a team en fuego as of late with Eli Manning slinging the ball to all his weapons the past few weeks and watching teams struggle to decide which one of his weapons to leave single covered. WR Hakeem Nicks has shown up in a big way helping out breakout star WR Victor Cruz. The key to the Giants playoff offense however has been RB Ahmad Bradshaw who was running with abandon early in the year only to be sidelined for a few weeks due to a broken foot. Now that he’s back and being the dynamic guy he can be, he carried my fantasy team on more than one occasion this year, it has allowed RB Brandon Jacobs to go back to doing what he does best, which is be a change of pace back and wear down the defensive line. The 49ers are great run stuffers but if the thunder and lightning tandem of Bradshaw and Jacobs can soften them up at all it’ll open up the back end for Manning whose had a career year. This year he got smarter with the ball and has done a much better job at finding the open receiver not just his favorite receiver.

Defensively it’s pretty easy to see what the Giants game plan is. Stop the run and then allow their stable of unreal pass rushers to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. If they can stand up Gore and RB Kendall Hunter at the line and force the Niners to the air then their trio of rushers can do what they do best: get after the QB. The emergence of DE Jason Pierre-Paul as one of the most dynamic rushers in the league has allowed DEs Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck to be freed up a little more and get more opportunities at taking down the quarterback. When all three of them are in the game the offensive line is forced to single cover one of them making him look like Deacon Jones due to each ones abilities to win a one-on-one matchup with a left or right guard every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Key for the 49ers offense then becomes clear: get the running game going early, score touchdown and don’t kick field goals, and force the Giants great pass rush to stay honest against the run game. For the Giants it’s simple but oh so complicated for them to do on a consistent basis: show up.

Picks: Geoff – SF 23-21, Norton – SF 14-10, Lang – SF 27-17, ZHawk – SF 21-17

There you have it loyal readers a long drawn out and theory breakdown of both the AFC and NFC conference championship matchups. If you’re a gambling man I’d say you can take the Views from the Couch picks to the bank and if not enjoy the games this weekend gentleladies and men. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

The Time Has Come: The NFL Playoffs Are Upon Us

The NFL season has come to a close with 12 teams moving on and 20 setting up tee times in south Florida. Here is how the AFC and NFC brackets set up going forward into the Wild Card Weekend:

AFC

1.     New England Patriots (13-3)

2.     Baltimore Ravens (12-4)

3.     Houston Texans (10-6)

4.     Denver Broncos (8-8)

5.     Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

6.     Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)

NFC

1.     Green Bay Packers (15-1)

2.     San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

3.     New Orleans Saints (13-3)

4.     New York Giants (9-7)

5.     Atlanta Falcons (10-6)

6.     Detroit Lions (10-6)

The Patriots, Ravens, Packers, and 49ers will be taking Wild Card Weekend off to party and ‘rest’ while they get ready to defend their turf in round 2. That leaves the other 8 teams across 4 matchups to duke it out for 4 spots in the next round. All the matchups have interesting caveats and are going to be interesting matchups well worth tuning in to. Here at The Couch I’m going to breakdown for you each of those matchups starting in the AFC. Don’t forget all the higher seeds are the home team in the matchups below.

(3) Houston Texans vs. (6) Cincinnati Bengals

This matchup pits two of the leagues top defenses and two rookie quarterbacks against one another. The Texans key acquisition this offseason appears to have been defensive coordinator Wade Phillips who helped turn around the league’s worst pass defense and made it one of the best. Signing #1 corner Jonathan Joseph away from the Bengals didn’t hurt either. Defensively the Bengals have been a revelation a year after being a sieve ranking in the top 10 against both the pass and run. Their forte though is being able to stop the run. This matchup is going to have an immovable object banging up against a giant boulder in the form of the Texans dominant run offense behind all world RB Arian Foster and more than capable backup RB Ben Tate taking on the Bengals stout run defense. If Foster can have a big game, he’s more than capable of putting up 150 yards and 2 scores, it’ll limit the amount of work that 3^rd string rookie QB T.J. Yates needs to do. If Yates can just manage the game and not turn the ball over, he’s only thrown 3 interceptions in the 5 games he’s started, the Texans can let their run game run them right into the AFC semifinals. The Bengals will be leaning on rookie redhead QB Andy Dalton to manage the game and throw a few touchdown’s to last years #4 overall draft pick and absolute beast WR A.J. Green. A low scoring game is probably in the cards.

PICKS: Geoff: Texans, Justin: Texans, Norton: Bengals

(4) Denver Broncos vs. (5) Pittsburgh Steelers

The two quarterbacks in this game have both spent copious amounts of their life under the watchful eye of the media for very different reasons. The Steelers Ben Roethlisberger for not once but twice being accused of raping intoxicated women and the Broncos Tim Tebow for being a devout and extremely vocal soldier in the Army of Christ. How does that relate to this weekend’s matchup in Mile High? It doesn’t at all. Roethlisberger is a two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback who is a top 10 field general when he’s healthy. Key word there: when.  He’s currently not healthy having to sit out week 17 against the Browns, a game the Steelers narrowly squeaked out, with a busted ankle. He says he’ll play this weekend and I don’t doubt him in any way but with RB Rashard Mendenhall being placed on IR this week the Steelers are going into this matchup shorthanded. Luckily for them they drew the weak link in the AFC, the Denver Broncos led by the inconsistent at best Tim Tebow. The Broncos started off 1-4 ditched Kyle Orton as quarterback and inserted Tim Tebow and subsequently won 7 of 8 including 6 in a row but finished the season off headed the wrong direction losing 3 in a row. The Broncos have the NFL’s top ranked running game behind Willis McGahee and Tebow. Tebow can’t throw the ball until the 4^th quarter therefore leaving the Broncos no choice but to run it. The problem with that is that the Steelers are notoriously stingy against the run making this a game where if the Broncos plan to win Tebow’s going to need to throw the pill around a little bit.

PICKS: Geoff: Steelers, Justin: Steelers, Norton: Steelers

Now that we’ve dealt with the two matchups in the AFC let’s take a look at what the NFC has to offer up this weekend.

(3) New Orleans Saints vs. (6) Detroit Lions

The Lions are making their first appearance in the playoffs since the 20^th century, 1999, too bad they are pitted against arguably the NFC’s hottest team. The Saints are buoyed by their juggernaut of an offense led by record setting QB Drew Brees. Brees smashed Dan Marino’s 27-year old single season passing record by close to 400 yards. He broke the record in only his 15^th game and ended up finishing the year with 5,476 yards and led the league in touchdown passes too with 46. The Saints offense finished 1^st in total offense, 1^st in passing offense (obviously), and 6^th in rushing. Their offense has no holes the only problems this team has is on the other side of the ball though the defense gets bailed out on many occasions by the offense’s firepower. Teams are forced to throw early on the Saints because the Saints tend to get out in front early and that allows the secondary to force turnovers. This isn’t a terrible thing for the Lions who are pretty good at throwing the ball themselves. Their third year QB Matthew Stafford finally was healthy for a full year and put up over 5,000 yards and threw for over 40 TDs. The weapon on the Lions offense that the Saints will be hard pressed to stop is WR Calvin Johnson a.k.a. Megatron who finished the year with 1,681 yards receiving and 16 TDs. Look at those numbers again and realize just how good a year he had. Unreal. TE Brandon Pettigrew also grew into his own this year and had 83 recs, 777 yards, and 5 TDs. The Lions don’t have a very good running game but that shouldn’t matter much the Saints are going to turn this thing into a shootout quick. The game will come down to whether or not the Lions can keep pace with the Saints and their up-tempo offense that has been running on all cylinders for 5 weeks or so now.

PICKS: Geoff: Saints, Justin: Saints, Norton: Saints

(4) New York Giants vs. (5) Atlanta Falcons

The final game I’ll be breaking down will be taking place at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands. The Giants are coming into the playoffs after beating the Cowboys 31-14 on Sunday night to snipe the NFC East crown from the ‘Boys. The Giants started off 6-2 fell back to earth but then we’re able to pull it together somewhat down the stretch and win their season finale to get into the playoffs. On the other sideline the Falcons are coming off a somewhat inconsistent season though they appeared to hit their stride towards the end of the year. They are a dangerous team led by QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, and rookie burner WR Julio Jones. Their defense is very stout against the run giving up only 97 yards a game and their pass defense does a pretty good job not giving up too many big plays. They have a solid pass rush behind DE John Abraham. Playing outside of the dome in the cold New York weather won’t be easy however and Ryan won’t have a lot of time to throw the ball either against the Giants vaunted pass rush led by DE Jason Pierre-Paul and DE Osi Umenyiora. Don’t forget about DE Justin Tuck either who’s had a rough year but is always capable of taking over a game. Pierre-Paul had a breakout year registering 16.5 sacks. The Giants secondary is beat up down to their third string in a few spots but luckily for them their rushers’ ability to disrupt the pocket has made it easier for the corners and safeties. 

Offensively the Giants are extremely one-dimensional but that hasn’t been such a bad thing considering Eli Manning backed up all the preseason talk he threw around by putting up just south of 5,000 yards (4,933) and 29 TDs with only 16 interceptions compared to 25 INTs last year. The running game has been brutal due to multiple injuries on the offensive line and a broken foot for starting RB Ahmad Bradshaw. The Giants are gaining just under 90 yards a game on the ground but as long as the running game can be a show me pitch and give Eli a little bit of room to throw then the Giants have a shot. The Giants are also armed with a two-headed receiving monster in Victor Cruz, UMass shoutout, and Hakeem Nicks. Cruz came out of nowhere this year to set a Giants single season receiving yards record with 1,536 yards. Nicks missed a few games but still managed to rack up 1,192 yards. The Giants can throw the ball and their matchup with the Falcons pass defense will probably define the game. If the G Men can’t throw the ball expect the Falcons to run away early if they can throw the ball against the Falcons then I like their odds of hanging with the Dirty Birds.

PICKS: Geoff: Falcons, Justin: Giants, Norton: Giants

That’s it for Wild Card Weekend in the NFL; take these picks to the bank at your own risk. Check back next week for a breakdown of the AFC/NFC 2^nd round matchups. Unit we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

NFL Playoff Picture Part II: NFC

Where the AFC has 9 the NFC has 8. I’m not going to count the Philadelphia Eagles at 4-7 who currently sit in 9^th as contenders moving forward so we’re going to draw the line at the 8^th seeded New York Giants and their 6-5 record. There hasn’t been a bigger disappointment than the Flopadelphia Eagles and their “Dream Team” – great call by the backup QB and same guy who went A.W.O.L. for 4 days last year after being pulled from the Titans starting lineup. The Eagles thought you could win championships on paper well they were rudely awakened and won’t be drinking playoff champagne this year. But like yesterday with Tim Tebow this isn’t going to be a pile on the Eagles column but rather a look at the entire National Football Conference. Even though the Packers and Niners have sewed up their respective divisions there is still a lot to play for in the other 4 spots. Let’s take a look at the contenders and then break ‘em down from there like we did in the AFC piece, which is linked here in case you missed it. The NFC top 8:

1.      Green Bay Packers (11-0)

2.      San Francisco 49ers (9-2)

3.      New Orleans Saints (8-3)

4.      Dallas Cowboys (7-4)

5.      Chicago Bears (7-4)

6.      Atlanta Falcons (7-4)

7.      Detroit Lions (7-4)

8.      New York Giants (6-5)

The NFC Norris division (that ones for you Chris Berman) and the West races are all over the only race to be watched coming out of those two divisions is whether or not the Packers can be the third team in history and second since 2007, your New England Patriots of course being the first, to play a clean regular season slate. Looking at their remaining schedule I think the Packers have a very good chance of going 16-0 with three of their remaining games at the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field and road games against the suddenly reeling Giants and Kansas City Chiefs. I’m going to take the Packers to finish 15-1 however since every team is destined for a stinker each year and the Packers frankly don’t play much defense at all. One down game from Aaron Rodgers and his WR corps and the Packers chalk one up in the loss column. Out in the NFC West the 49ers really haven’t been challenged all year and can clinch the division with a win this weekend. Jim Harbaugh has brought in a new energy and attitude to a team that desperately needed it and has responded accordingly ripping off 8 straight wins before losing the Harbaugh bowl on Thanksgiving 16-6 to the Ravens. They’ll be your 2 seed and earn a bye through the wild card weekend. Cowboys are running hot Tony Romo is throwing the ball the best he has in the past few years and DeMarco Murray is the feature back the Cowboys thought they had in Felix Jones. Though’ll hold off a surprisingly weak NFC East and wrap up the 4^th seed behind the NFC South winner.

That leaves us with 6 teams vying for 3 spots with only the Saints as clear favorites to get into the playoffs after their 49-24 shellacking of the G-Men on Monday night. Speaking of the G-Men I’m going to start off the elimination process with them, their 6-5 record, and 3 straight losses.

After they beat the Patriots 24-20 a month ago at Gillette Stadium the Giants were sitting pretty atop the NFC East holding a 6-2 record and a 2 game lead over the Dallas Cowboys. Fast forward three weeks and the G-Men are now on the outside looking in losers of three in a row and limping into a matchup with the undefeated Green Bay Packers and all World QB Aaron Rodgers. With their lack of a running game and Eli Manning falling back to Earth after a scorching start to the season the Giants are a team headed in the wrong direction and this isn’t something new. During the Tom Coughlin Era the Giants are 24-34 after the month of October. This year is no different and with a tough schedule down the stretch, Packers, Cowboys twice, Jets, and Redskins, the G-Men are going to be sitting in that 8 spot when the playoffs begin.

In a mild upset the other team I’m going to eliminate is the Caleb Hanie led Chicago Bears. If jay Cutler hadn’t broken his right thumb and been forced out of the rest of the regular season I would’ve taken them over the Detroit Lions were appear to be slightly too green for the playoffs but caught a break, pun, with the Cutler injury. If I write this column two weeks ago after the Bears housed the Lions 37-13 and Cutler was still their starter the Lions would be the pick but alas that’s why they play the games. Matt Forte is a stud but other than the Chicago offense is junk and no one on their offensive line would start for the LSU Tigers or Alabama Crimson Tide. Their defense and return games are still pretty strong but they won’t be able to hide Hanie well enough to hold onto their playoff spot. Lions are in, Bears are out.

Speaking of those Lions I’m just going to write a small piece on them since I’m going out on a limb and saying that their going to make the playoffs for the first time ever. Ok so not ever but in a really really long time. Their offense is explosive to say the least but the team struggles on the defensive side of the ball and their best defensive player, Ndamukong Suh, just got suspended 2 games for being a whack job. The Lions have a decently hard schedule down the stretch but as long as they can win 3 out of 5 they’re in. 10 wins gets them to the promise land they’ve longed to graze in for ages. Matthew Stafford is the real deal and he was the right pick at the top of the 2009 NFL Draft. Keep throwing the ball to Megatron Matty and you’ll be a-ok.

Finally let’s take a look at the NFC South race. Both teams, the Falcons and Saints are going to get in the playoffs but the division is still an open race. After a sluggish game against the putrid Rams the Saints have turned it on big time. They’ve won 3 straight and put up almost 600 yards on the Giants Monday night. Drew Brees is playing MVP caliber and would probably win that award if Aaaron Rodgers hadn’t decided to have a nearly flawless regular season. The true key to finding a division winner will come in week 16 when the Saints and Falcons tussle in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Both teams have a weak schedule besides the matchup against one another and I’m going to give the advantage to the Saints in that game. The Falcons schedule looked tougher before the Texans got forced down to TJ Yates and Jake Delhomme. It’s a home game and the Saints appear to be trending upwards quickly. The Falcons won’t be left out in the cold though they’ll draw the Cowboys in the 4 vs. 5 matchup during the wild card weekend.

There you have it folks the NFC playoff picture just got a little clearer for you let me know what you think. Until the next time we cross paths.

Geoff Jablonski

NFL Playoff Picture Getting Clearer: AFC Breakdown

We’re now through 12 weeks and the playoff race in the AFC has started to take a more definitive shape. There are 9 teams vying for 6 spots, the cutoff is the Bills at 10 so sorry Buffalo but losing 4 in a row and your top offensive player in Fred Jackson doesn’t allow you to be vying for a playoff spot anymore. Of those 9 teams the Bengals, Broncos, and Titans all appear to shift from week to week on whether they are pretenders or contenders. I know that Denver starts Tim Tebow at quarterback and shouldn’t really be in this conversation but there’s not much else to say other than he’s 5-1 as a starter and the team, mostly the defense, rallies around him more and more each week. They can’t score a lick and I’m pretty sure John Fox has Tebow running a dumbed down version of the offense from “Football for Dumbies” but a win is a win. Back to the subject at hand this isn’t going to be a rant or rave about Tim Tebow but a look at all the teams, here is how the AFC top 9 line up currently:

1. Houston Texans (8-3)
2. New England Patriots (8-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (8-3)
4. Oakland Raiders (7-4)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
7. New York Jets (6-5)
8. Denver Broncos (6-5)
9. Tennessee Titans (6-5)

Now let’s break these standings down and I’m going to throw at you how I think this race is going to shake out.

You are seeing straight that is the Houston Texans sitting in the top slot. A franchise that has never had a winning record is currently your number one seed though I see that changing in the near future with the news that Matt Leinart is out for the year and the team just signed Jake “Day Light Come And I Wanna” Delhomme. The Texans are still going to win the weak AFC South but I don’t see them holding onto the top spot over the likes of the Patriots and Steelers. They’ll settle in nicely to the 3 seed ahead of the (spoiler alert!) AFC West champion Oakland Raiders. The other shoo-ins as far as this blogger is concerned are the Patriots, Ravens, and Steelers. Those three teams know how to win when the mercury drops below 32 and the calendar turns to January, I don’t see that changing this year. All three sit at 8-3 with each having the possibility of running the table. The Patriots play an extremely weak schedule the last 5 weeks of the year so I see them penciling in as the 1 seed with a 13-3 final tally. The Steelers and Ravens will battle it out for the other bye and the 2 seed. I’m going to lean towards the Ravens since they’ve already beaten the Steelers twice thus owning the tiebreaker. All they have to do is play the Steelers even down the stretch and they get the coveted bye through the wildcard weekend. Steelers will finish either 12-4 or 11-5 securing themselves the 5 seed behind the 4 division winners. Between the Patriots, Ravens, Texans, and Steelers that’s four spots out of six locked down let’s take a peek at who might grab those final two openings.

Handicapping The Rest of the Field

We’ve now decided the definite lets look at who’s left and who is going to punch a ticket to the dance and who’s going to be left out in the cold. I’m going to eliminate the Tennessee Titans from the race right off the bat. CJ1K has been a ghost all year and has only had two really good games all year and they came against the porous run defenses of the Tampa Bay Bucs and Carolina Panthers. Against everyone else he’s struggled to break the 40-yard mark while Matt Hasselbeck has been firing off interceptions like it’s going out of style. They still have games against the Saints and Texans left I don’t see them cracking the 10 wins it takes to even sniff the playoffs. Titans are off the list.

Next team up that I’m going to eliminate is those pesky Denver Broncos. There hasn’t been a simpler offense run in the NFL since the ball was oval shaped and passing was considered awkward at best. The Broncos beat the Chiefs a few weeks ago after attempting only 8 passes, completing 2, and running the ball 55 times. This week they beat the free falling Chargers in OT with Tebow completing 9-18 and running the ball over 20 times. I personally fall under the belief that it’s more of an indictment on the Chargers and Chiefs not playing well than the belief that this high school option offense will have continued success at the NFL level. There’s a reason that option quarterbacks don’t transition from college to the pros if they did the quarterbacks of Army, Navy, and the Air Force would all be top 10 picks. Tebow is winning now but teams will realize he’s not a threat to pass the ball effectively and the magic will run out. Broncos land on the outside looking in.

Eliminating the Broncos means that I’m crowning the Oakland Raiders the AFC West champions as I mentioned a few paragraphs above. The Raiders have actually been playing halfway decent with Carson Palmer steering the ship and Michael Bush picking up the slack while Run DMC’s foot heals. When the Raiders get him back and have their entire WR corps healthy the Raiders will stand a punchers chance moving forward. They can hold off the Broncos and their Tebowing. They’re in as AFC West champions and the 4 seed.

Then there were two…the current 6 seed Cincinnati Bengals and the 7 seed New York Jets. It kills me to say this as a diehard Pats fan but I’m going to concede the 6 seed to the Jets in the end. They have an easier schedule down the stretch than the Bengals and though Mark Sanchez has done nothing to show he has a semblance of consistency he’s been to the AFC Championship game twice and can somewhat handle playing under stress. The Bengals are lead by a rookie quarterback who has exceeded all expectations in the redheaded fireball Andy Dalton. Dalton has had an extraordinary season by all accounts but I don’t think he can beat the Texans, Steelers and Ravens down the stretch while the Jets get the likes of the Redskins, Chiefs, reeling Eagles, Giants, and Dolphins. The Jets have a pretty good shot at winning out whereas the Bengals would do well to win 2 out of 3 of those games, their other two games are against the Rams and Cardinals I’m going to chalk those up as W’s. The Bengals have had a much better year than anticipated in year 1 of the Dalton experience and I think next year they’ll be dancing with the big boys but this year they’re going to be left waiting for a prom date. Jets wrap up the 6th seed and if there’s justice for being obnoxious ego inflated pricks they’ll be bounced in round 1 by the Texans. If not then hopefully the Steelers or Ravens can serve them papers in round 2.

There you have it folks that’s why I see the AFC playoff race playing out and stay tuned for my take on the NFC race tomorrow night. Let me know what you think.

Geoff Jablonski