Causeway Street Patriots Nation turns its lonely eyes to you

Quick question Red Sox and Patriots Nation what building houses the last two Boston sports champions simultaneously? Ding ding ding! Time’s up! Sorry Gillette but it’s not you with the Revolution and Patriots nor is it you Fenway Park with the Red Sox and the Liverpool whatevers but it’s you TD Garden!

The TD Garden suffered for years through a myriad of names ranging from the Fleet Center and multiple other random names including at one point when you could by the rights to name the stadium whatever you wanted for a day – fun fact. Finally (mercifully a better word?) though it’s two inhabitants, the Bruins and Celts, finally turned the corner from habitual first round exit and perpetual suckfest, respectively, and rewarded the Boston faithful with a Stanley Cup and an NBA championship. In the past 5 years the Bruins and Celtics are the only champions that the great region of New England has to boast about to those arrogant New York pricks. The Red Sox have come close in that 5 year window losing in game 7 of the ALCS to those loveable Tampa Bay Rays, I know I should hate them because they’re in the AL East but boy are they fun to watch and they just seem to do everything the right way, and the Patriots have made it to the biggest game on Earth twice as favorites only to be turned away by the fuckin’ Giants, sorry still a little bitter about Super Bowl XLII and XLVI, yet it’s only the Bruins and Celtics who have delivered the crowns upon which titletown USA was built: the Stanley Cup and NBA title. After watching the Red Sox win the 2010 offseason and subsequently drink there way to infamy during the 2011 baseball season and then turning their eyes and watching the Patriots go from a solid team who should win a playoff game or two to Super Bowl favorites only to be bested by Eli Manning it’s now time that Boston turns its sad eyes back to the Bruins and Celtics in hopes that they’ll quell that championship thirst.

The Red Sox turned out to be the ultimate paper champions when the shit hit the fan and the Patriots gave it a valiant effort but if you honestly thought that Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo and their band of misfits we’re going to stop Eli on that last drive after the Welker-Brady miscue then you’re a better fan than I can ever be. It was becoming more and more clear throughout that game that the defense was playing masterfully but the ball just wasn’t fumbling the Patriots way and midnight was bound to strike soon on the Cinderella defensive scheme, yet I digress. Back to the topic at hand which is the Celtics and mostly the Bruins carry on their shoulders the Boston fan bases hopes and dreams for being the sports elite and lately they’ve done a fine job of it. Time to take a glimpse at each team’s chances of restoring the peace in Beantown.

First up we have the Celtics who about a month ago didn’t appear anywhere near sniffing the second round of the playoffs let alone a shot at the title but recently they’ve started to gain some steam with no coincidence that they’re resurgence coincides with Paul Pierce getting healthy again and KG looking the best he has since the devastating knee injury of three years ago. Before KG blew out his knee against Utah 3 odd years ago the Celtics appeared poised to make it two rings in three years but since then they’ve still managed to make it to game 7 of the NBA finals against the vaunted Lakers before blowing a late lead in L.A. but last year they were bounced unceremoniously by the new Big Three in Miami.

The Celtics started the abbreviated 2011-12 year 0-3 and then 4-8 before ripping off 9 out of 10 with a 5 win streak currently in their midst. The shortened season tends to favor a team like the Celtics as long as they can get into the playoffs in the top 4 seeds. A shortened season favors older teams who are good enough to allow their old dogs a few games off here and there and still track down one of those top seeds. Home court has always been crucial for this latest version of the Celtics. The swap of big baby Glen Davis for Brandon Bass has looked like a stroke of genius on the part of GM Danny Ainge and another mind numbing mistake by Orlando GM Otis Smith. Bass has been a better offensive player and a better defender and rebounder than baby while playing alongside Garnett he’s done a great job of bringing out the firey defender in Garnett once again. When Garnett is defending like he has been lately while also pouring in between 15-20 points and grabbing roughly 10 rebounds the Celtics are on the right track. Ray Allen has been phenomenal all year and he’s the kind of guy who takes pride in staying in shape over the long haul. Pierce took the beginning of the year to get healthy and as long as he can stay in shape he’s a great offensive piece to center it all around. Rajon Rondo makes this offense tick and his health will be one of the keys to the Celtics making a run deep into the playoffs, just if he could shoot but oh well.

The true key in my mind will be whether or not Ainge is able to swing a deal for a body to defend the paint and chip in some offense because as good a player as he was in his hay day Jermaine O’Neal just can’t stay healthy enough to be a solid contributor over the long haul. Mikael Pietrus is a great wing defender and once he settles in he’ll be a huge piece coming off the bench down the stretch and the Celtics are all set backing up the guard spots with veteran Keyon Dooling and youngster Avery Bradley. Bradley has settled in nicely and is playing very good perimeter defense and taking care of the ball not much more you can ask for in a backup PG. The Celtics are a big body and possibly a wing scorer off the bench from giving the Heat, Bulls, Mavs, Lakers and anyone else one last run for their money. There is hope but don’t hang your hat on it rather I’d hitch my wagon to the latest Boston champion: the Boston Bruins.

As an abashed Bruins fan who watched and had my heart broken by the Spoked B my entire life watching them blow top seeds and get bumped out by the dreaded Canadiens habitually last years run to the Stanley Cup was absolutely orgasmic. For once the Bruins were the team who got ridiculously hot at exactly the right team and ran train on the rest of the league. The Bruins were the ones with the top goaltender, Timmy Thomas, who could stop mass quantities of rubber on command and lead his team to numerous 1-0 and 2-0 victories. The Bruins were also the ones with the annoying as shit guy in Brad Marchand and the gifted offensive talent who caught fire at just right the time in David Krejci. It was beautiful to watch the Bruins exile their past demons by coming back from a 2-0 hole against the Canadiens in round 1 and then sweeping the Flyers, who just the year before had sent the Bruins into the history books by rebounding from a 3-0 series deficit to advance, with beat down after beat down. They then leaned on 2-time, in 3 years might I add, Vezina Trophy winner Tim Thomas to carry them past the very gifted but goaltenderless Tampa Bay Lightning in 7 games. Finally in the Stanley Cup Finals the Bruins squared off their polar opposite in the savvy but weak President Trophy winning Vancouver Canucks and after losing the first two games in Vancouver rebounded to humiliate the Canucks and Roberto Luongo throughout the last 5 games by winning 4 and the Cup.

After a deep run in the playoffs and the retirement of the Bruins heart and soul Mark Recchi the Bruins understandably got off to a super slow start this year before rebounding in a big way. After the season’s first month and first ten games the Bruins were an abysmal 3-7 and looked brutal after losing a home and home to the Canadiens. I don’t know what Claude Julien did but he found a way to light a fire under his teams ass and watched them rip off 10 straight wins and points in 15 straight with their only non win point coming in a 3-2 shootout loss to the Western Conference leader Detroit Red Wings. That’s 29 out of a possible 30 points. Led by young sniper whiz kid Tyler Seguin and the league’s best goaltending tandem the Bruins found their stride and after dropping two in a row then won 7 more in a row. The Bruins have hit a little bit of a snag lately with some poor losses against some below par teams but have still been able to keep up the pace with the top team in the Eastern Conference: the New York Blueshirts.

Peter Chiarelli found a way to wrestle power and money away from the Jacobs family like no one has been able to before and he has rewarded the Hub of Hockey with one championship and a very real possibility of another one. The Bruins are loaded with young talent and depth up to wazoo not to mention the top goaltending tandem in hockey: Tuuka Rask and Tim Thomas. The Bruins already have a 20-goal scorer in Tyler Seguin and 4 other guys over 15 goals: Patrice Bergeron (15) Nathan Horton (17) Milan Lucic (19) Brad Marchand (19). With a reinvented power play (11^th in the league at 18.5%, thanks to Tyler Seguin channeling his inner Marc Savard and being able to control the halfwall), the usual amazing penalty killing (7^th in the NHL), a GAA of 2.2 (4^th), and a GFA of 3.4 (1^st) the Bruins are the envy of the NHL currently. On any given night Julien can move his ‘first line’ center David Krejci who has become more and more of a magician with the puck to the third line and bring defensive minded Chris Kelly up to the first line and still pull off a 4-1 win over the Southeast Conference leading Washington Capitals.

Defensively Julien’s system is better than ever and you can thank Big Z, Zdeno Chara, coupled with the emergence of Dennis Seidenberg, Johnny Boychuck, Andrew Ference and Adam McQuaid teamed up with his amazing backstops for keeping the Bruins near the top of the league in GAA. The Bruins have depth for days and 3 very solid lines that can score at will and a 4^th line that is amazing at beating and battering the other teams top lines. All of this goes without mentioning the best reason why the Bruins have a very good chance of piecing back together New England’s broken hearts by making a run deep in the playoffs: the play of the Seguin-Bergeron-Marchand line. The Bruins second line has become one of the top 3 or 4 lines in the league and has been producing points at an unreal rate. In 51 games Bergeron has 46 points to lead the Bruins Seguin is a close second with 44 points and Marchand is pulling up the rear with 38 points. This line can shut down another teams top line while also putting a few goals up on the board what more can you ask for? The Bruins have a shot to repeat and win a title that New England feels it deserves after having the Super Bowl pulled from the grasp for the 2^nd time in 5 years.

There you have it folks a few reasons why there is a legitimate shot that either the Bruins or Celtics will be able to deliver a championship in June 2012. If I was a betting man I wouldn’t hesitate to throw a few bones the way of the Bruins and maybe even grab the Celtics if the odds were right because if things break their way you never know what a few old dogs might be able to pull off. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

Did You Hear The Pats Are Playing The Giants This Weekend?

After a brief hiatus from the blogosphere in honor of the Super Bowl week off, ok so maybe I just wasn’t feeling very inspirational at the moment but either way, I’m back and ready to bandy about how I think Super Bowl XLVI between YOUR New England Patriots and the New York Giants will unfold.

If you’re reading this post currently there’s a good chance that you are aware of the fact that the Patriots and Giants squeaked by the Ravens and 49ers, respectively, a week and a half ago in the AFC and NFC Conference championship games. The Pats and Giants wins resulted in a rematch of the infamous Super Bowl XLII tilt. Again as most of you probably know the undefeated, 18-0, Patriots came into that game seeking to become only the second team ever to run the table, along with the ’72 Dolphins right Mercury Morris?, and the first ever team to go 19-0. The Giants came into that Super Bowl led by an enigma at QB who symbolized the entire vibe of that team all year long, a solid ground game, a stellar front four defensively, a coach who defined the word disciplinarian, and an upset of the Green Bay Packers and Brett Favre at Lambeau Field in -23 degree wind chill. Not to reopen old wounds for Patriots fans but we all know how that game turned out: David Tyree made the only catch of his career on his helmet and the Giants ended the Patriots season with a defeat 17-14.

Most of the media figureheads in the past week and a half have been attempting to link the outcome from Super Bowl XLII to a prediction for Super Bowl XLVI and let me tell you right now don’t waste your time. The only bearing that that game from 4 years ago is going to have on this game is that Brady is realizing he might not get many opportunities to be back on the big stage. I don’t think he could care less whether the Pats were going to be play the 49ers or the Giants all he seems focused on is tying Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw at 4 rings apiece. That would move him permanently into the pantheon of winners with the ability to possible reach the summit and be crowned as the winnest QB ever. On the line for Eli Manning is the possibility to grab his 2^nd ring, one more than his much more lauded older brother Peyton has, and pour a little more concrete mix on his candidacy for Canton and football immortality. I think if he can take down the Patriots for the 2^nd time on football’s biggest stage he’ll stand a pretty damn good chance of getting elected into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. But enough about the QBs and their legacies lets take a look at what I think are the major keys to this game (in no particular order I’m just working stream of conciousness over here):

How effective will the Giants vaunted front 4 be against the Patriots solid offensive line and subsequently how well will the Giants Swiss cheese offensive line be able to slow down Vince Wilfork? To me personally the biggest wildcard in this game is Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP had a year for the ages racking up 80 tackles from the DE position to go along with 16.5 sacks. When he came out of college he was labeled as a very raw talent who didn’t start playing football until he was 16 and in just two years he’s morphed into possibly the premier defensive lineman in football behind maybe only Jared Allen out in Minnesota. His athleticism is unreal and makes Jevon Kearse (the original freak) look like a slouch. He is the key to whether or not Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck are matched up one-on-one with an opportunity to disrupt the Patriots horizontal passing attack. If the Patriots are forced to constantly double team JPP or run plays away from his side because he’s wreaking mass quantities of havoc then the Giants stand a good chance of holding the Patriots offense to a score far south of 30.

On the other side of the coin though is the beast Vince Wilfork. He singlehandedly won that game for the Patriots against the Ravens by making 8 or 9 plays that made your jaw hit the floor with his ability to occupy two sometimes three blockers and STILL get to the ballcarrier in the backfield or grab a hold of QB Joe Flacco. When Wilfork gets playing like that it’s easy to see why he’s considered one of the elite defensive lineman in football. He’s an absolute load and I don’t see David Baas who got injured against the 49ers and will not be 100% being able to slow him down for very long. The rest of the Patriots defensive line is also quite underrated from Brandon Deaderick to Kyle Love. The matchup in the trenches will, like it usually does, play a major role in the outcome of this game. I’d give an edge to the Patriots slightly due to the Giants porous offensive line.

The next key is will Rob Gronkowski be ‘The Gronk’ or will he be more of a decoy? Don’t read into the fact that he hasn’t practice yet since the AFC Championship game. Belichick knows that his sprained ankle needs maximum time to heal and it’s not like Gronkowski doesn’t know the offense or hasn’t gotten enough reps throughout the year. He’ll be fine mentally, well as fine as Gronk can be mentally, on Sunday the real question is what form of Gronk are we going to see? The beast who set a single season record for TDs and receiving yards by a TE or an injured decoy who has to leave all the production to the TE position to come from Aaron Hernandez? Hernandez getting all the production isn’t a bad alternative since he’s a matchup nightmare but he’s made that much more effective by Gronk’s ability to run the seam route to perfection. Gronkowski opens up the underneath for Welker and Hernandez to do what they do best and that’s get yards after the catch. Gronk is also Tom Brady’s binky. When things get tough he knows he can just lob it up to the physical phenom at TE and he’ll reel it in 95% of the time and if not it’ll fall incomplete. Gronkowski is on pair with Pierre-Paul physically in that he has revolutionized how people look at the TE position. He can stay in as a mauler on the offensive line due to his size being equivalent to that of a tackle but he can also run good routes and has the hands of wide receiver. The Patriots need at least 85% of the Gronkowski they had during the regular season if they want to be able to put up big numbers against the Giants. The Patriots passing attack is predicated on Gronkowski stretching the field somewhat vertically to allow the little guys to work underneath. I also believe that it’ll be imperative for Deion Branch to look like the Deion Branch of old and help pick up some of the slack that’s bound to occur with Gronkowski’s ankle injury. Branch is more than capable of snagging 5 or 6 balls for 80 to 90 yards and helping keep the Giants defense honest.

The last key to the matchup that I’m going to discuss before throwing out a final score prediction is whether or not Belichick truly plans to use the same philosophy on the Giants offense as he did against the Rams ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ offense back in February 2002. In that game Belichick basically instructed his defensive backs to mug the Rams receivers at the line and for his LBs and Ss to punish Marshall Faulk every time he touched the ball. The Giants are built somewhat similar to that 2002 version of the Rams with Eli Manning having a career year throwing the ball to his All-Pro and breakout of the year #1 WR Victor Cruz and #1a Hakeem Nicks. The Giants don’t run the ball extremely well but Brandon Jacobs is a bruiser who can wear the defense and Ahmad Bradshaw is a good slasher out of the backfield who is dangerous as a receiver.

Belichick stated in an interview over the weekend that he intended to use the likes of Julian Edelman to attempt to disrupt the Giants wide receivers at the line with his CBs actually playing the safety position per se picking up the wide out after they’ve been bumped at the line. It’s an interesting strategy to put the physical safeties, or in Edelman’s case Jack of all trades, up at the line to disrupt the receivers and then allow the corners who can’t beat either wideout in a foot race to pick up the slack and cover them the rest of the way downfield. If Cruz and Nicks are allowed to run free off the line of scrimmage and head downfield then I think the Patriots defense is in for a tough battle. The Giants receiving corps is a much more potent unit then the one the Patriots faced in 2008 and if they are given the chance Eli and Company will prove it on Super Sunday. I am a fan of the idea of the Patriots attempting to rough up the Giants slippery wide receivers because I think it’s a better strategy then allowing Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty to attempt to lockdown Cruz and Nicks when we all know they won’t be getting much help from the safety position. Patrick Chung is a run stopper not a coverage guy and the other safety position is a revolving door of guys who can’t cover. In my book physical is the way to go against this Giants attack.

Final Prediction for the game: Patriots 31, Giants 24

I think they Patriots are going to be able to exact some revenge, more for the fans than for themselves considering almost the entire team from the 18-1 season is gone, and put up over 30 on the Giants shaky at times brilliant at others defense. In my mind 30 is the key if the Patriots score over 30 I think they’ve got it in the bag if they are held south of that number then you may just see the Giants upset the Pats, though most people in New York seem to think a Patriots win would be an upset, for the 2^nd time in 4 years. Expect offense folks and for the Patriots not to allow the Giants front four to pressure Tom Brady nearly as much in the ‘rematch’ allowing him to have a big day and claim that 4^th Super Bowl ring. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

The NFL Final Four

And then there were four…

The NFL season has been going on now for a calm, cool 18 weeks and week 19 is here to determine who will square off in the big one: the Super Bowl at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The conference championship games will be played this Sunday with the AFC pitting the Baltimore Ravens against the New England Patriots and the NFC showcasing the New York Giants at the San Francisco 49ers at 3 and 6:30 PM, respectively. The games will be taking place as far away as possible with the Patriots and 49ers playing host to some hostile guests. Since there are only two matchups on the docket for this weekend each blogger has provided not only a pick of who will win each game but a score as well for all you degenerate gamblers out there wondering whether or not to take the points or the over/under. The favorites will have the amount they favored by in parentheses with the over/under being listed below.

(2) Baltimore Ravens at (1) New England Patriots (-7.5) Over/Under: 50.5 pts

This game is a rematch of the 2009 playoff matchup that sent the Patriots into their two-year playoff-losing spiral. The Ravens drubbed the Pats 33-14 with Ray Rice setting the pace early by scampering for a 83-yard TD run on the first play from scrimmage. It only got worse from their for the hometown Patriots as Tom Terrific only completed about half his passes for 154 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs. Joe Flacco only completed 4 passes for 34 yards on that fateful day but it didn’t matter as Ray Rice ran for 159 yards on 22 carries and 2 of the Ravens 4 TDs on the ground. One major factor that people tend to forget about that horrific loss by the Patriots is that Wes Welker didn’t play in that game after blowing out his ACL during a meaningless week 17 matchup with the Houston Texans. The Patriots were a one-dimensional team then and they are now but without Welker they couldn’t even be one-dimensional.

What does that playoff defeat by the Patriots have to do with the week’s matchup? Well, it has a good amount to do with it because I’m sure that stinging defeat is going to be fresh in the minds of multiple Patriots who were embarrassed on their home field by a very similar Ravens team only two years ago.  Tom Brady is a man on a mission right now knowing that if he can get back to the Super Bowl and win it that’ll put him in the upper echelon of the all time great QBs along with the only other two men to win 4 Super Bowls: Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw. Brady is fully aware of his legacy and knows that he has a chance to do something few others have ever had the chance of doing. If he can win on Sunday and propel his team to the Super Bowl he’ll be making his 5th Super Bowl start in a 10-year period. The only other person who has made 5 Super Bowl starts is John Elway and he did that over a 12-year period. Brady has a chance to cement his place in the pantheon of great QBs and I don’t see him letting an aging but still dangerous Ravens defense stand in his way.

For the Ravens the key is taking Hernandez out of the game. With his newfound skills as a running back Hernandez has become even more of a dynamic threat. Hernandez has become the absolute matchup nightmare for defensive coordinators between his ability to lineup in the backfield, run like a wide receiver, and muscle defenders off the ball like a tight end a la Gronk. He is the perfect complement to both Gronkowski and Wes Welker. The Ravens are exceptional at stopping the run thanks to a solid linebacking corps and the two-headed monster up front of Haloti Ngata and Cory Redding. In the passing game however the Ravens defense isn’t as formidable as past years. The cornerback position has become somewhat of a revolving door with LaDarius Webb being the only recognizable name and at safety Ed Reed still is a ball hawk like no other but he isn’t the same Ed Reed as two years ago. Injuries to his hips and ankles have helped slow him a little bit. Don’t underestimate this group though they can still hold any offense under 24 points and keep the offense in the ballgame. Speaking of the offense…

The Ravens offense starts and ends with Ray Rice. He’s the team’s leading rusher and leading pass catcher. For all the things Joe Flacco isn’t the one thing he can most certainly do is throw the ball deep to rookie WR Torrey Smith. Smith hauled in 7 TD receptions this year and they were all of the long bomb variety. Anquan Boldin is still a threat that needs close monitoring between the 20s but he isn’t much of a red zone threat. If TEs Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta sit down in the soft spots in the zone and make catches they can cause some problems too but in the end it all comes down to Rice. It’s up to the Patriots patchwork defense to keep Rice from grounding and pounding them into the ground and working the clock against the Patriots. If Rice and the Ravens can get some traction early and keep the ball out of Brady’s hands while putting up some points then the home team could be in for a long dog fight. This ballgame will come down to who can contribute more on the offensive side of the ball: Ray Rice or Tom Brady.

Picks: Geoff – NE 31-17, Norton – NE 27-17, Lang – NE 35-17, ZHawk – NE 34-21

(4) New York Giants at (2) San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) Over/Under: 42 pts

In the nightcap the New York GMen will be making the long cross-country flight out to the city of hills San Francisco. To no surprise to any football fan out there the Giants for like the 10th consecutive season did their best to be named football’s Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde. You never know what you’re going to get from them when they step on the football field. Are they the team that unseated the number one seed and overwhelming favorite 15-1 Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field or the squad that got blown out much worse than the score shows in a 23-10 home game against the ghastly Washington Redskins? The Giants had an up and season to say the least finishing at 9-7 scraping into the playoffs as the NFC East champion after the Cowboys shit the bed down the stretch. The Giants started 6-2 after beating the Patriots in Foxboro then fell to 7-7 after the abysmal loss to the ‘Skins and now are slight favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (bettors side note: though the 49ers are ‘favored’ by 2.5 pts that technically means the Giants are favored by a half a point because every home team is generally given a 3 point cushion at home).

The 49ers on the other hand have been the model of consistency all year long. They were 6-2 on the road, 7-1 at home. They won blowouts and they won close games that came down to the wire. They’ve won ball games by playing stellar defense against both the run and the pass, they didn’t give up their first rushing TD on the year until week 17, and hoarding the ball on offense while allowing David Akers to kick mass quantities of field goals. For the most part the 49ers don’t put up big points with QB Alex Smith going from bust to turnover free game manager this year basically working carefully between the 20s. Their biggest threats on the offensive side of the ball are RB Frank Gore, when he’s healthy, WR Michael Crabtree, whose really come on as of late, and physical freak TE Vernon Davis. Davis was a force to be reckoned with against the Saints last week and if he can play like that again this week then watch out below Giants’ fans. If the 49ers get the ground game working early and open up some holes for Smith to pick apart a decimated Giants secondary it could be a good day for 49ers fans to start dreaming of a trip to Indianapolis, never thought I’d ever say anyone is ‘dreaming’ of Indianapolis but this year all four of these teams are.

The key to this game for most people though is, again, what version of the Giants is going to walk out onto the field Sunday evening (afternoon out west) at Candlestick Park? If the Giants team that has been steamrolling through the playoffs shows up the 49ers defense better be their usual dominant selves or else the Niners’ offense is going to be forced into a shootout for the second straight week. They barely survived last week against the ultimate track meet champion New Orleans Saints and I don’t know if rookie coach Jim Harbaugh has enough bullets in the chamber to succeed two weeks in a row by deviating so far from the teams typical game plan. The Giants have been a team en fuego as of late with Eli Manning slinging the ball to all his weapons the past few weeks and watching teams struggle to decide which one of his weapons to leave single covered. WR Hakeem Nicks has shown up in a big way helping out breakout star WR Victor Cruz. The key to the Giants playoff offense however has been RB Ahmad Bradshaw who was running with abandon early in the year only to be sidelined for a few weeks due to a broken foot. Now that he’s back and being the dynamic guy he can be, he carried my fantasy team on more than one occasion this year, it has allowed RB Brandon Jacobs to go back to doing what he does best, which is be a change of pace back and wear down the defensive line. The 49ers are great run stuffers but if the thunder and lightning tandem of Bradshaw and Jacobs can soften them up at all it’ll open up the back end for Manning whose had a career year. This year he got smarter with the ball and has done a much better job at finding the open receiver not just his favorite receiver.

Defensively it’s pretty easy to see what the Giants game plan is. Stop the run and then allow their stable of unreal pass rushers to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. If they can stand up Gore and RB Kendall Hunter at the line and force the Niners to the air then their trio of rushers can do what they do best: get after the QB. The emergence of DE Jason Pierre-Paul as one of the most dynamic rushers in the league has allowed DEs Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck to be freed up a little more and get more opportunities at taking down the quarterback. When all three of them are in the game the offensive line is forced to single cover one of them making him look like Deacon Jones due to each ones abilities to win a one-on-one matchup with a left or right guard every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Key for the 49ers offense then becomes clear: get the running game going early, score touchdown and don’t kick field goals, and force the Giants great pass rush to stay honest against the run game. For the Giants it’s simple but oh so complicated for them to do on a consistent basis: show up.

Picks: Geoff – SF 23-21, Norton – SF 14-10, Lang – SF 27-17, ZHawk – SF 21-17

There you have it loyal readers a long drawn out and theory breakdown of both the AFC and NFC conference championship matchups. If you’re a gambling man I’d say you can take the Views from the Couch picks to the bank and if not enjoy the games this weekend gentleladies and men. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

The Time Has Come: The NFL Playoffs Are Upon Us

The NFL season has come to a close with 12 teams moving on and 20 setting up tee times in south Florida. Here is how the AFC and NFC brackets set up going forward into the Wild Card Weekend:

AFC

1.     New England Patriots (13-3)

2.     Baltimore Ravens (12-4)

3.     Houston Texans (10-6)

4.     Denver Broncos (8-8)

5.     Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

6.     Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)

NFC

1.     Green Bay Packers (15-1)

2.     San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

3.     New Orleans Saints (13-3)

4.     New York Giants (9-7)

5.     Atlanta Falcons (10-6)

6.     Detroit Lions (10-6)

The Patriots, Ravens, Packers, and 49ers will be taking Wild Card Weekend off to party and ‘rest’ while they get ready to defend their turf in round 2. That leaves the other 8 teams across 4 matchups to duke it out for 4 spots in the next round. All the matchups have interesting caveats and are going to be interesting matchups well worth tuning in to. Here at The Couch I’m going to breakdown for you each of those matchups starting in the AFC. Don’t forget all the higher seeds are the home team in the matchups below.

(3) Houston Texans vs. (6) Cincinnati Bengals

This matchup pits two of the leagues top defenses and two rookie quarterbacks against one another. The Texans key acquisition this offseason appears to have been defensive coordinator Wade Phillips who helped turn around the league’s worst pass defense and made it one of the best. Signing #1 corner Jonathan Joseph away from the Bengals didn’t hurt either. Defensively the Bengals have been a revelation a year after being a sieve ranking in the top 10 against both the pass and run. Their forte though is being able to stop the run. This matchup is going to have an immovable object banging up against a giant boulder in the form of the Texans dominant run offense behind all world RB Arian Foster and more than capable backup RB Ben Tate taking on the Bengals stout run defense. If Foster can have a big game, he’s more than capable of putting up 150 yards and 2 scores, it’ll limit the amount of work that 3^rd string rookie QB T.J. Yates needs to do. If Yates can just manage the game and not turn the ball over, he’s only thrown 3 interceptions in the 5 games he’s started, the Texans can let their run game run them right into the AFC semifinals. The Bengals will be leaning on rookie redhead QB Andy Dalton to manage the game and throw a few touchdown’s to last years #4 overall draft pick and absolute beast WR A.J. Green. A low scoring game is probably in the cards.

PICKS: Geoff: Texans, Justin: Texans, Norton: Bengals

(4) Denver Broncos vs. (5) Pittsburgh Steelers

The two quarterbacks in this game have both spent copious amounts of their life under the watchful eye of the media for very different reasons. The Steelers Ben Roethlisberger for not once but twice being accused of raping intoxicated women and the Broncos Tim Tebow for being a devout and extremely vocal soldier in the Army of Christ. How does that relate to this weekend’s matchup in Mile High? It doesn’t at all. Roethlisberger is a two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback who is a top 10 field general when he’s healthy. Key word there: when.  He’s currently not healthy having to sit out week 17 against the Browns, a game the Steelers narrowly squeaked out, with a busted ankle. He says he’ll play this weekend and I don’t doubt him in any way but with RB Rashard Mendenhall being placed on IR this week the Steelers are going into this matchup shorthanded. Luckily for them they drew the weak link in the AFC, the Denver Broncos led by the inconsistent at best Tim Tebow. The Broncos started off 1-4 ditched Kyle Orton as quarterback and inserted Tim Tebow and subsequently won 7 of 8 including 6 in a row but finished the season off headed the wrong direction losing 3 in a row. The Broncos have the NFL’s top ranked running game behind Willis McGahee and Tebow. Tebow can’t throw the ball until the 4^th quarter therefore leaving the Broncos no choice but to run it. The problem with that is that the Steelers are notoriously stingy against the run making this a game where if the Broncos plan to win Tebow’s going to need to throw the pill around a little bit.

PICKS: Geoff: Steelers, Justin: Steelers, Norton: Steelers

Now that we’ve dealt with the two matchups in the AFC let’s take a look at what the NFC has to offer up this weekend.

(3) New Orleans Saints vs. (6) Detroit Lions

The Lions are making their first appearance in the playoffs since the 20^th century, 1999, too bad they are pitted against arguably the NFC’s hottest team. The Saints are buoyed by their juggernaut of an offense led by record setting QB Drew Brees. Brees smashed Dan Marino’s 27-year old single season passing record by close to 400 yards. He broke the record in only his 15^th game and ended up finishing the year with 5,476 yards and led the league in touchdown passes too with 46. The Saints offense finished 1^st in total offense, 1^st in passing offense (obviously), and 6^th in rushing. Their offense has no holes the only problems this team has is on the other side of the ball though the defense gets bailed out on many occasions by the offense’s firepower. Teams are forced to throw early on the Saints because the Saints tend to get out in front early and that allows the secondary to force turnovers. This isn’t a terrible thing for the Lions who are pretty good at throwing the ball themselves. Their third year QB Matthew Stafford finally was healthy for a full year and put up over 5,000 yards and threw for over 40 TDs. The weapon on the Lions offense that the Saints will be hard pressed to stop is WR Calvin Johnson a.k.a. Megatron who finished the year with 1,681 yards receiving and 16 TDs. Look at those numbers again and realize just how good a year he had. Unreal. TE Brandon Pettigrew also grew into his own this year and had 83 recs, 777 yards, and 5 TDs. The Lions don’t have a very good running game but that shouldn’t matter much the Saints are going to turn this thing into a shootout quick. The game will come down to whether or not the Lions can keep pace with the Saints and their up-tempo offense that has been running on all cylinders for 5 weeks or so now.

PICKS: Geoff: Saints, Justin: Saints, Norton: Saints

(4) New York Giants vs. (5) Atlanta Falcons

The final game I’ll be breaking down will be taking place at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands. The Giants are coming into the playoffs after beating the Cowboys 31-14 on Sunday night to snipe the NFC East crown from the ‘Boys. The Giants started off 6-2 fell back to earth but then we’re able to pull it together somewhat down the stretch and win their season finale to get into the playoffs. On the other sideline the Falcons are coming off a somewhat inconsistent season though they appeared to hit their stride towards the end of the year. They are a dangerous team led by QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, and rookie burner WR Julio Jones. Their defense is very stout against the run giving up only 97 yards a game and their pass defense does a pretty good job not giving up too many big plays. They have a solid pass rush behind DE John Abraham. Playing outside of the dome in the cold New York weather won’t be easy however and Ryan won’t have a lot of time to throw the ball either against the Giants vaunted pass rush led by DE Jason Pierre-Paul and DE Osi Umenyiora. Don’t forget about DE Justin Tuck either who’s had a rough year but is always capable of taking over a game. Pierre-Paul had a breakout year registering 16.5 sacks. The Giants secondary is beat up down to their third string in a few spots but luckily for them their rushers’ ability to disrupt the pocket has made it easier for the corners and safeties. 

Offensively the Giants are extremely one-dimensional but that hasn’t been such a bad thing considering Eli Manning backed up all the preseason talk he threw around by putting up just south of 5,000 yards (4,933) and 29 TDs with only 16 interceptions compared to 25 INTs last year. The running game has been brutal due to multiple injuries on the offensive line and a broken foot for starting RB Ahmad Bradshaw. The Giants are gaining just under 90 yards a game on the ground but as long as the running game can be a show me pitch and give Eli a little bit of room to throw then the Giants have a shot. The Giants are also armed with a two-headed receiving monster in Victor Cruz, UMass shoutout, and Hakeem Nicks. Cruz came out of nowhere this year to set a Giants single season receiving yards record with 1,536 yards. Nicks missed a few games but still managed to rack up 1,192 yards. The Giants can throw the ball and their matchup with the Falcons pass defense will probably define the game. If the G Men can’t throw the ball expect the Falcons to run away early if they can throw the ball against the Falcons then I like their odds of hanging with the Dirty Birds.

PICKS: Geoff: Falcons, Justin: Giants, Norton: Giants

That’s it for Wild Card Weekend in the NFL; take these picks to the bank at your own risk. Check back next week for a breakdown of the AFC/NFC 2^nd round matchups. Unit we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

Fantasy Forum Week 14: Studs/Duds

For most of your leagues across the ESPN and Yahoo! Fantasy football platforms the playoffs begin this week if you were fortunate enough to get that far. For all of you in the playoffs good luck going forward and for those of you who playing in the consolation bracket well there’s always going to be next year. Without further adieu let’s move on to your week 14 studs and duds.

STUDS

Carson Palmer QB Oakland Raiders vs. the Green Bay Packers

Palmer has actually been a pretty good starting QB for the Raiders and fantasy owners alike since being inserted in week 9. He hasn’t scored below 10 points in the 5 games posting lines of 19, 15, 16, 10, and 16, respectively. The Packers score points in bunches and force other teams to throw. Luckily for their opponents their secondary hasn’t been all that solid this year and has been giving up yardage at a record pace, luckily for the Packers the Patriots pass defense has been even worse thus they aren’t last in the league. I see the Raiders getting down early and Palmer being forced to the air early and often. It’s not going to be pretty but he’ll put up over 300 yards and a few scores.

Stats: 326 yards, 3 TDs, 2 Ints

Chris Johnson RB Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints

After sucking thru the first 8 games of the year Johnson has turned it on the past 4 weeks, minus a 2 point performance against the stout Falcons run defense, scoring above 17 points 3 times. In those three games Johnson has gone for at least 130 yards with 3 scores total. He’s always a threat to catch a few passes out of the backfield and the Saints don’t do an overly good job of stopping the run. The key for Johnson is the Titans not being forced to the air too early for him to be able to find running lanes cause they’ll be there. I’m thinking that the Johnson from the past two weeks and last season is going to show up again in week 14.

Stats: 22 carries, 126 yards, 1 TD, 4 rec, 32 yards, 0 TD

Dez Bryant WR Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants 

The Cowboys have been taking to the air in the recent weeks with Bryant and Laurent Robinson being the main beneficiaries. Tony Romo has been throwing TD passes at a pretty good clip and Bryant’s reeled in at least 1 score in 3 of the last 4 games. This week I don’t see being any different when you look at the Giants 29^th ranking against the pass. Miles Austin is returning this weekend but I only see that helping Bryant get open. I expect to see Bryant dancing in the end zone.

Stats: 6 rec, 89 yards, 1 TD

DUDS

T.J. Yates QB Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals

A rookie QB without his top WR against a top 5 defense? I’ll pass thank you very much. Yates scored in double digits last week, 10 points, but that was with Andre Johnson reeling in 4 catches for 97 yards before he was forced to exit the game after he hurt his hamstring. That hamstring is going to keep him out of this week’s matchup with the stingy Bengals defense leaving Yates to lean on TE Owen Daniels who’s been a no show all year and WR Jacoby Jones who can’t seem to grab onto the reigns as a number one wideout. The Texans are going to lean heavily on RB Arian Foster and keep the ball out of Yates hands. Sit him.

Stats: 159 yards, 1 TD, 2 Ints

Dwayne Bowe WR Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets pass defense

Bowe hasn’t found the end zone in 7 straight games and he’s about to take a vacation on to Revis Island. Advantage: Revis and the Jets. Tyler Palko is also still going to be under center for the Chiefs after Kyle Orton hurt himself last week after 1 play last week against the Bears. That equals bad news for Bowe and the Chiefs. He’ll get targeted but I don’t see him reeling in too many of those targets and especially none in the red zone.

Stats: 4 rec, 45 yards, 0 TD

Pierre Garcon WR Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens

Garcon has had 3 huge games this year scoring over 24 points in each of them. The other 9 games he hasn’t been able to crack 8 points with outputs of 3, 2, 8, 3, 3, 6, 2, 4, and 3. He reeled in 2 TDs against the worst pass defense the league has ever known, the record books will confirm this at the end of the year, and racked up 150 yards on 9 catches. With Dan Orlovsky at QB attempting to become the first man to ever lead two teams to 0-16 records I don’t see Garcon repeating that success against the 7^th ranked Baltimore Ravens pass defense. The offense isn’t strong enough all around to support Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon having huge games and if I had to put my money on of them I’d take Wayne and his past success. Don’t look to either though to carry your team with a weak offensive line and Dan Orlovsky throwing the passes.

Stats: 3 rec, 36 yards, 0 TD

There you have it my faithful readers week 14 of the NFL is about to get underway and you now know who to start and who to sit. Good luck in the playoffs! Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

NFL Playoff Picture Part II: NFC

Where the AFC has 9 the NFC has 8. I’m not going to count the Philadelphia Eagles at 4-7 who currently sit in 9^th as contenders moving forward so we’re going to draw the line at the 8^th seeded New York Giants and their 6-5 record. There hasn’t been a bigger disappointment than the Flopadelphia Eagles and their “Dream Team” – great call by the backup QB and same guy who went A.W.O.L. for 4 days last year after being pulled from the Titans starting lineup. The Eagles thought you could win championships on paper well they were rudely awakened and won’t be drinking playoff champagne this year. But like yesterday with Tim Tebow this isn’t going to be a pile on the Eagles column but rather a look at the entire National Football Conference. Even though the Packers and Niners have sewed up their respective divisions there is still a lot to play for in the other 4 spots. Let’s take a look at the contenders and then break ‘em down from there like we did in the AFC piece, which is linked here in case you missed it. The NFC top 8:

1.      Green Bay Packers (11-0)

2.      San Francisco 49ers (9-2)

3.      New Orleans Saints (8-3)

4.      Dallas Cowboys (7-4)

5.      Chicago Bears (7-4)

6.      Atlanta Falcons (7-4)

7.      Detroit Lions (7-4)

8.      New York Giants (6-5)

The NFC Norris division (that ones for you Chris Berman) and the West races are all over the only race to be watched coming out of those two divisions is whether or not the Packers can be the third team in history and second since 2007, your New England Patriots of course being the first, to play a clean regular season slate. Looking at their remaining schedule I think the Packers have a very good chance of going 16-0 with three of their remaining games at the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field and road games against the suddenly reeling Giants and Kansas City Chiefs. I’m going to take the Packers to finish 15-1 however since every team is destined for a stinker each year and the Packers frankly don’t play much defense at all. One down game from Aaron Rodgers and his WR corps and the Packers chalk one up in the loss column. Out in the NFC West the 49ers really haven’t been challenged all year and can clinch the division with a win this weekend. Jim Harbaugh has brought in a new energy and attitude to a team that desperately needed it and has responded accordingly ripping off 8 straight wins before losing the Harbaugh bowl on Thanksgiving 16-6 to the Ravens. They’ll be your 2 seed and earn a bye through the wild card weekend. Cowboys are running hot Tony Romo is throwing the ball the best he has in the past few years and DeMarco Murray is the feature back the Cowboys thought they had in Felix Jones. Though’ll hold off a surprisingly weak NFC East and wrap up the 4^th seed behind the NFC South winner.

That leaves us with 6 teams vying for 3 spots with only the Saints as clear favorites to get into the playoffs after their 49-24 shellacking of the G-Men on Monday night. Speaking of the G-Men I’m going to start off the elimination process with them, their 6-5 record, and 3 straight losses.

After they beat the Patriots 24-20 a month ago at Gillette Stadium the Giants were sitting pretty atop the NFC East holding a 6-2 record and a 2 game lead over the Dallas Cowboys. Fast forward three weeks and the G-Men are now on the outside looking in losers of three in a row and limping into a matchup with the undefeated Green Bay Packers and all World QB Aaron Rodgers. With their lack of a running game and Eli Manning falling back to Earth after a scorching start to the season the Giants are a team headed in the wrong direction and this isn’t something new. During the Tom Coughlin Era the Giants are 24-34 after the month of October. This year is no different and with a tough schedule down the stretch, Packers, Cowboys twice, Jets, and Redskins, the G-Men are going to be sitting in that 8 spot when the playoffs begin.

In a mild upset the other team I’m going to eliminate is the Caleb Hanie led Chicago Bears. If jay Cutler hadn’t broken his right thumb and been forced out of the rest of the regular season I would’ve taken them over the Detroit Lions were appear to be slightly too green for the playoffs but caught a break, pun, with the Cutler injury. If I write this column two weeks ago after the Bears housed the Lions 37-13 and Cutler was still their starter the Lions would be the pick but alas that’s why they play the games. Matt Forte is a stud but other than the Chicago offense is junk and no one on their offensive line would start for the LSU Tigers or Alabama Crimson Tide. Their defense and return games are still pretty strong but they won’t be able to hide Hanie well enough to hold onto their playoff spot. Lions are in, Bears are out.

Speaking of those Lions I’m just going to write a small piece on them since I’m going out on a limb and saying that their going to make the playoffs for the first time ever. Ok so not ever but in a really really long time. Their offense is explosive to say the least but the team struggles on the defensive side of the ball and their best defensive player, Ndamukong Suh, just got suspended 2 games for being a whack job. The Lions have a decently hard schedule down the stretch but as long as they can win 3 out of 5 they’re in. 10 wins gets them to the promise land they’ve longed to graze in for ages. Matthew Stafford is the real deal and he was the right pick at the top of the 2009 NFL Draft. Keep throwing the ball to Megatron Matty and you’ll be a-ok.

Finally let’s take a look at the NFC South race. Both teams, the Falcons and Saints are going to get in the playoffs but the division is still an open race. After a sluggish game against the putrid Rams the Saints have turned it on big time. They’ve won 3 straight and put up almost 600 yards on the Giants Monday night. Drew Brees is playing MVP caliber and would probably win that award if Aaaron Rodgers hadn’t decided to have a nearly flawless regular season. The true key to finding a division winner will come in week 16 when the Saints and Falcons tussle in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Both teams have a weak schedule besides the matchup against one another and I’m going to give the advantage to the Saints in that game. The Falcons schedule looked tougher before the Texans got forced down to TJ Yates and Jake Delhomme. It’s a home game and the Saints appear to be trending upwards quickly. The Falcons won’t be left out in the cold though they’ll draw the Cowboys in the 4 vs. 5 matchup during the wild card weekend.

There you have it folks the NFC playoff picture just got a little clearer for you let me know what you think. Until the next time we cross paths.

Geoff Jablonski

Fantasy Forum Week 9: Studs/Duds

STUDS

Beanie Wells RB Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams

The Rams have a horrible run defense (see: DeMarco Murray and a Cowboys single game rushing record) and Wells has actually been somewhat consistent this year. He’s only had 2 duds out of 7 matches this year and one of those, week 3 vs. Seahawks; he missed the game due to a knee injury. That same knee injury flared up last week before the Cardinals game against the Ravens but Wells toughed it out, awkward I know, and ran for 83 yards and a score. Outside of the Seahawks game and his 12-carry 42-yard effort against the Steelers he’s actually scored above 12 points in each game. He’s going to slice and dice the Rams especially with Kevin Kolb ruled out this week and sucky mcsuckerstein QB John Skelton starting this week.

Stats: 25 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD

Jimmy Graham TE New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jimmy Graham has been a revelation all year in his 2^nd year out of the University of Miami’s basketball program. The last time these two teams matched up Graham lit the Buccaneers defense for 7 catches and 124 yards and 12 points. The Buccaneers boast a halfway decent pass defense but they are generous to the opposing tight ends giving up an average of 8.9 points a game to the opposing TE getting hit up for 5 TD’s. Graham had his worst output of the year last week (4 catches, 39 yards) but that didn’t stop Drew Brees from consistently targeting him throughout the game. He’s going to have a big week this week chalk it up.

Stats: 6 catches, 108 yards, 1 TD

New York Giants Receiving Corps vs. New England Patriots Secondary

The Giants receiving corps of Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Victor Cruz, and TE Jake Ballard have put up big numbers all year and I don’t see that changing at all this week even if star wideout Nicks gets ruled out of Sunday’s matchup. Victor Cruz has come on strong and Manningham has been a consistent threat on the outside all year with Ballard showing good hands the past few weeks. As a Patriots fan I know full well that if you have WR’s playing against the Patriots horrific secondary insert them into your fantasy lineup. Eli Manning has also been playing at an extremely level this year only throwing 5 picks to 13 TD’s…very un-Eli Manning like. Patriots can’t get pressure on the QB or stop anyone in the passing game look for the Giants receivers to have a field day and rack up yards up and down the field.

Stats: 343 receiving yards and 2 TD’s

DUDS

Steve Johnson WR Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

Being a top WR and playing the NY Jets means one thing: a ‘vacation’ to Revis Island. Johnson and Ryan Fitzpatrick have had a great connection all year leading Johnson to becoming a top 10 WR week to week but not this week. Darrelle Revis is going to jam up and shut him down this week so if you have another option at WR I’d say go for it.

Stats: 2 catches, 25 yards, 0 TD’s

Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

Fitzpatrick and Johnson’s fates go together hand and hand. Darrelle Revis covering Steve Johnson means that Fitzpatrick’s top option is going to be gone all day meaning heavy workload for second option David Nelson who’s had a good year so far but beleaguered Jets DB Antonio Cromartie actually seems to be finding a groove a little bit the last few matches. The Jets also send an assortment of blitzes made to confuse and trip up the Harvard alum. The Jets defense is stingy and will hold Fitzpatrick in check for the day.

Stats: 227 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT’s

Phillip Rivers QB San Diego Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers

Phillip Rivers has been a massive disappointment for fantasy owners this year checking in as the 17^th ranked QB according to ESPN standard scoring. The Packers defense has been giving up points this year but coming off a bye week I like Dom Capers odds of dialing up a strong scheme to befuddle the Chargers QB. Charles Woodson has been playing great again this year following up his Defensive Player of the Year season last year. Clay Matthews coming off the edge and BJ Raji up the middle are also a cause for concern for the Chargers battered offensive line. Antonio Gates is back in action for Rivers but the Packers have the LB’s to cover him up and keep him under wraps. I’d look for another option unless forced into starting Rivers due to bye week woes.

Stats: 245 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

There are the Views from the Couch picks for this week’s fantasy studs and duds. Before signing off I’d like to send a personal note to Views from the Couch co-creator Justin Lang wishing him well and letting him know that him and his family are in our thoughts and prayers. We love you Langerhans.

Until we cross paths again,

Geoff Jablonski