The NFL Final Four

And then there were four…

The NFL season has been going on now for a calm, cool 18 weeks and week 19 is here to determine who will square off in the big one: the Super Bowl at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The conference championship games will be played this Sunday with the AFC pitting the Baltimore Ravens against the New England Patriots and the NFC showcasing the New York Giants at the San Francisco 49ers at 3 and 6:30 PM, respectively. The games will be taking place as far away as possible with the Patriots and 49ers playing host to some hostile guests. Since there are only two matchups on the docket for this weekend each blogger has provided not only a pick of who will win each game but a score as well for all you degenerate gamblers out there wondering whether or not to take the points or the over/under. The favorites will have the amount they favored by in parentheses with the over/under being listed below.

(2) Baltimore Ravens at (1) New England Patriots (-7.5) Over/Under: 50.5 pts

This game is a rematch of the 2009 playoff matchup that sent the Patriots into their two-year playoff-losing spiral. The Ravens drubbed the Pats 33-14 with Ray Rice setting the pace early by scampering for a 83-yard TD run on the first play from scrimmage. It only got worse from their for the hometown Patriots as Tom Terrific only completed about half his passes for 154 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs. Joe Flacco only completed 4 passes for 34 yards on that fateful day but it didn’t matter as Ray Rice ran for 159 yards on 22 carries and 2 of the Ravens 4 TDs on the ground. One major factor that people tend to forget about that horrific loss by the Patriots is that Wes Welker didn’t play in that game after blowing out his ACL during a meaningless week 17 matchup with the Houston Texans. The Patriots were a one-dimensional team then and they are now but without Welker they couldn’t even be one-dimensional.

What does that playoff defeat by the Patriots have to do with the week’s matchup? Well, it has a good amount to do with it because I’m sure that stinging defeat is going to be fresh in the minds of multiple Patriots who were embarrassed on their home field by a very similar Ravens team only two years ago.  Tom Brady is a man on a mission right now knowing that if he can get back to the Super Bowl and win it that’ll put him in the upper echelon of the all time great QBs along with the only other two men to win 4 Super Bowls: Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw. Brady is fully aware of his legacy and knows that he has a chance to do something few others have ever had the chance of doing. If he can win on Sunday and propel his team to the Super Bowl he’ll be making his 5th Super Bowl start in a 10-year period. The only other person who has made 5 Super Bowl starts is John Elway and he did that over a 12-year period. Brady has a chance to cement his place in the pantheon of great QBs and I don’t see him letting an aging but still dangerous Ravens defense stand in his way.

For the Ravens the key is taking Hernandez out of the game. With his newfound skills as a running back Hernandez has become even more of a dynamic threat. Hernandez has become the absolute matchup nightmare for defensive coordinators between his ability to lineup in the backfield, run like a wide receiver, and muscle defenders off the ball like a tight end a la Gronk. He is the perfect complement to both Gronkowski and Wes Welker. The Ravens are exceptional at stopping the run thanks to a solid linebacking corps and the two-headed monster up front of Haloti Ngata and Cory Redding. In the passing game however the Ravens defense isn’t as formidable as past years. The cornerback position has become somewhat of a revolving door with LaDarius Webb being the only recognizable name and at safety Ed Reed still is a ball hawk like no other but he isn’t the same Ed Reed as two years ago. Injuries to his hips and ankles have helped slow him a little bit. Don’t underestimate this group though they can still hold any offense under 24 points and keep the offense in the ballgame. Speaking of the offense…

The Ravens offense starts and ends with Ray Rice. He’s the team’s leading rusher and leading pass catcher. For all the things Joe Flacco isn’t the one thing he can most certainly do is throw the ball deep to rookie WR Torrey Smith. Smith hauled in 7 TD receptions this year and they were all of the long bomb variety. Anquan Boldin is still a threat that needs close monitoring between the 20s but he isn’t much of a red zone threat. If TEs Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta sit down in the soft spots in the zone and make catches they can cause some problems too but in the end it all comes down to Rice. It’s up to the Patriots patchwork defense to keep Rice from grounding and pounding them into the ground and working the clock against the Patriots. If Rice and the Ravens can get some traction early and keep the ball out of Brady’s hands while putting up some points then the home team could be in for a long dog fight. This ballgame will come down to who can contribute more on the offensive side of the ball: Ray Rice or Tom Brady.

Picks: Geoff – NE 31-17, Norton – NE 27-17, Lang – NE 35-17, ZHawk – NE 34-21

(4) New York Giants at (2) San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) Over/Under: 42 pts

In the nightcap the New York GMen will be making the long cross-country flight out to the city of hills San Francisco. To no surprise to any football fan out there the Giants for like the 10th consecutive season did their best to be named football’s Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde. You never know what you’re going to get from them when they step on the football field. Are they the team that unseated the number one seed and overwhelming favorite 15-1 Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field or the squad that got blown out much worse than the score shows in a 23-10 home game against the ghastly Washington Redskins? The Giants had an up and season to say the least finishing at 9-7 scraping into the playoffs as the NFC East champion after the Cowboys shit the bed down the stretch. The Giants started 6-2 after beating the Patriots in Foxboro then fell to 7-7 after the abysmal loss to the ‘Skins and now are slight favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (bettors side note: though the 49ers are ‘favored’ by 2.5 pts that technically means the Giants are favored by a half a point because every home team is generally given a 3 point cushion at home).

The 49ers on the other hand have been the model of consistency all year long. They were 6-2 on the road, 7-1 at home. They won blowouts and they won close games that came down to the wire. They’ve won ball games by playing stellar defense against both the run and the pass, they didn’t give up their first rushing TD on the year until week 17, and hoarding the ball on offense while allowing David Akers to kick mass quantities of field goals. For the most part the 49ers don’t put up big points with QB Alex Smith going from bust to turnover free game manager this year basically working carefully between the 20s. Their biggest threats on the offensive side of the ball are RB Frank Gore, when he’s healthy, WR Michael Crabtree, whose really come on as of late, and physical freak TE Vernon Davis. Davis was a force to be reckoned with against the Saints last week and if he can play like that again this week then watch out below Giants’ fans. If the 49ers get the ground game working early and open up some holes for Smith to pick apart a decimated Giants secondary it could be a good day for 49ers fans to start dreaming of a trip to Indianapolis, never thought I’d ever say anyone is ‘dreaming’ of Indianapolis but this year all four of these teams are.

The key to this game for most people though is, again, what version of the Giants is going to walk out onto the field Sunday evening (afternoon out west) at Candlestick Park? If the Giants team that has been steamrolling through the playoffs shows up the 49ers defense better be their usual dominant selves or else the Niners’ offense is going to be forced into a shootout for the second straight week. They barely survived last week against the ultimate track meet champion New Orleans Saints and I don’t know if rookie coach Jim Harbaugh has enough bullets in the chamber to succeed two weeks in a row by deviating so far from the teams typical game plan. The Giants have been a team en fuego as of late with Eli Manning slinging the ball to all his weapons the past few weeks and watching teams struggle to decide which one of his weapons to leave single covered. WR Hakeem Nicks has shown up in a big way helping out breakout star WR Victor Cruz. The key to the Giants playoff offense however has been RB Ahmad Bradshaw who was running with abandon early in the year only to be sidelined for a few weeks due to a broken foot. Now that he’s back and being the dynamic guy he can be, he carried my fantasy team on more than one occasion this year, it has allowed RB Brandon Jacobs to go back to doing what he does best, which is be a change of pace back and wear down the defensive line. The 49ers are great run stuffers but if the thunder and lightning tandem of Bradshaw and Jacobs can soften them up at all it’ll open up the back end for Manning whose had a career year. This year he got smarter with the ball and has done a much better job at finding the open receiver not just his favorite receiver.

Defensively it’s pretty easy to see what the Giants game plan is. Stop the run and then allow their stable of unreal pass rushers to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. If they can stand up Gore and RB Kendall Hunter at the line and force the Niners to the air then their trio of rushers can do what they do best: get after the QB. The emergence of DE Jason Pierre-Paul as one of the most dynamic rushers in the league has allowed DEs Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck to be freed up a little more and get more opportunities at taking down the quarterback. When all three of them are in the game the offensive line is forced to single cover one of them making him look like Deacon Jones due to each ones abilities to win a one-on-one matchup with a left or right guard every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Key for the 49ers offense then becomes clear: get the running game going early, score touchdown and don’t kick field goals, and force the Giants great pass rush to stay honest against the run game. For the Giants it’s simple but oh so complicated for them to do on a consistent basis: show up.

Picks: Geoff – SF 23-21, Norton – SF 14-10, Lang – SF 27-17, ZHawk – SF 21-17

There you have it loyal readers a long drawn out and theory breakdown of both the AFC and NFC conference championship matchups. If you’re a gambling man I’d say you can take the Views from the Couch picks to the bank and if not enjoy the games this weekend gentleladies and men. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

NFL Conference Semifinals Here We Come

Last week’s NFL Wild Card round provided a one close matchup and three blowouts, not exactly the most exciting Wild Card weekend I’ve ever seen. The one close matchup though featured two of the NFL’s most controversial quarterbacks in Ben ‘Rapelisberger’ Roethlisberger and Tim ‘The Voice of Christ’ Tebow. The Broncos played the game in reverse order of how they’ve been winning during the regular season by jumping on the Steelers early and then fumbling away a lead late allowing the Big Raper to bring back the Steel Curtain and send the game to OT. He forgot one thing though that on the other sideline Tebow Time was getting ready to make his playoff OT debut. One play in OT, one TD, one Broncos win. Off to New England for a date with the top seeded Patriots for the Tebow show. Man another blog about the NFL and again I’ve managed to allow Tebow to devour my entire first paragraph, oh well he’s a polarizing guy but anywho moving on.

In the other three games the enigmatic Giants easily dispatched the Falcons 24-2, the Texans ran by the Bengals 31-10 for their first franchise postseason win, and the Saints went aerial against the Lions for a final score of 45-28. That leaves us with the following matchups going into the Conference Semifinals: (3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers and the (4) New York Giants at (1) Green Bay Packers in the NFC with (3) Houston Texans at (2) Baltimore Ravens and (4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots. The chalk reigned supreme in the Wild Card round for the first time in a while leading to 4 darn good matchups this weekend. Let’s take a look at each matchup individually and then give you each View from the Couch bloggers picks.

NFC

(3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers

The Saints have been hotter than Gisele Bundchen in the past 6 weeks or so with Drew Brees leading the track meet. Their opponent this week, the 49ers, started off strong and stayed strong throughout the entire regular season behind first year head coach Jim Harbaugh and reinvented former #1 overall pick QB Alex Smith. The 49ers adopted a ground and pound approach for this year and it has paid huge dividends leading to a 13-3 record and first round bye. The Saints have an identical 13-3 record but win thru the air not on the ground and in the trenches like the 49ers. The outcome of this game will be determined by whether or not the 49ers can do enough to slowdown the Saints prolific offense. If the Saints can get into the 30s the 49ers will have trouble keeping pace. If the 49ers can keep the Saints in the low 20s however and use Frank Gore, depending on if the healthy Frank Gore shows up, to grind out the clock and put some points on the board at the end of long drawn out drives. Smith isn’t designed to lead a team on a comeback so that’s probably out of the equation. Get ahead early and stay there is the 49ers game plan.

PICKS: Geoff, ZHawk, Lang: NO, Norton: SF

(4) New York Giants at (1) Green Bay Packers

This is a matchup of the Week 13 show down when the Giants nearly knocked off the then undefeated Packers 38-35. The difference is this matchup is in Lambeau instead of at home for the GMen and the GMen also lost their only remaining corner with a pulse in Aaron Ross. The Packers finished the regular season 15-1 with their only blemish coming to a Chiefs team who had no business ruining their perfect regular season. They are led by All World QB Aaron Rodgers (Who’s Brett Favre again?) and a lethal receiving corps. Defensively the Packers have multiple playmakers in OLB Clay Matthews, DT BJ Raji, and CB Charles Woodson but that didn’t stop the Packers from holding down the 32^nd ranked pass defense. That’s good news for the Giants who despite running for 172 yards last week against the Falcons are a pass first team led by Eli Manning who had a career year. The Giants will go as far as Manning and his right arm can take them. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks should present some problems for the Packers secondary but the key to the Giants passing game is going to be their embattled offensive lines ability to keep the Packers rushers at bay. Offensively for the Packers the key will be getting the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hand early thus negating the Giants stellar pass rush. If the Packers can do that and jump out to an early lead they should have no problem coasting to the Conference Finals. If the Giants on the other hand can get after Rodgers and disrupt his rhythm and timing then ladies and gentleman we’ve got a battle royale on our hands.

PICKS: Geoff, Lang: GB, Norton, ZHawk: NYG

AFC

(3) Houston Texans at (2) Baltimore Ravens

The vaunted AFC North put three teams into the playoffs but only one of them will be playing this weekend: the Baltimore Ravens who had a bye and didn’t have the opportunity to lose last weekend like the Steelers and Bengals. The Ravens earned the AFC North crown and their first round bye and thus get the beat up Texans at home in round 2. The Texans continued their season of firsts for the franchise by getting their first postseason victory during the season when they recorded their first winning record, their first division title, and first postseason appearance. Much of those firsts can be attributed to the emergence of a topflight defense led by great coordinator horrible head coach Wade Phillips. Phillips has turned around the league’s worst defense and made it a top 5 difference-making defense. It also doesn’t hurt to have a guy who is running like his hairs on fire (that one’s for you Richard Pryor) Arian Foster who racked up 154 yards and 2 TDs against a good Bengals defense. The biggest problem the Texans will have in this rematch from earlier in the year when Foster only ran for 64 yards on 15 carries is that T.J. Yates is your starting quarterback. You’re talking about a 3^rd string rookie quarterback on the road. Yates is going to have to throw the ball around a little bit because you know Baltimore is going to stack the box against the run and shade all coverage towards Andre Johnson. The Ravens as always have a strong defense though it’s getting older I expect they’ll do a good job bottling up Yates. Offensively the Ravens will only go as far as Ray Rice can carry them. QB Joe Flacco has been a lightning rod for criticism because a lot of people feel he hasn’t taken steps forward but all he needs to do is protect the ball and make sure Ray Rice gets a million touches. If the Texans can get a few turnovers and hold Rice under 100 yards effectively making Flacco beat them deep they have to like their chances. Rookie WR Torrey Smith will also have to have an eye kept on him because he can easily haul in a 65-yard TD and swing the momentum Baltimore’s way. All eyes are on you to make sure that doesn’t happen Jonathan Joseph.

PICKS: Geoff, Norton: HOU, Lang, ZHawk: BAL

(4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots

Another week and another team gets Tebowed. Tebow Time is making its first career appearance in round 2 of the playoffs against the top seeded Patriots. These two teams played in Week 15 at Mile High and the Patriots whooped up on the Broncos 41-23 ending the Broncos 6 game winning streak and sending them into a tailspin to end the season. The Broncos still won the putrid AFC West however and then somewhat shocked the world by sneaking by a decimated Pittsburgh Steelers team in round 1. Tim Tebow only completed 10 passes but managed to rack up 316 yards (204 of them to Demaryious Thomas) and 2 scores. He also rushed the ball 10 times for 50 yards and a score. Tebow and the Broncos have unreal momentum not to mention God on their side but the last time they played the offensive juggernaut Patriots they got dismantled. No the Patriots can’t stop anyone thru the air but luckily for them Tebow can’t hit receivers consistently and that was before he, most likely, lost his top target WR Eric Decker after he got hit hard by James Harrison last week (shocker). In that mid December matchup the Broncos ran the ball in the first quarter for over 160 yards but after that they only managed to rack up 80 yards total in the next 3 quarters. The Broncos also jumped out to an early 16-7 lead only to give up 34 straight points to the Pats. The Patriots are led by two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl Champion QB Tom Brady and the Hoodie. The Patriots are the closest thing to a dynasty that football has seen since the Niners in the late 80s and the Cowboys in the early 90s. Though the Patriots haven’t won a playoff game in 3 years they are focused and ready to derail the Tebow Train and take advantage of their home field advantage throughout. With WR Wes Welker and TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez the Patriots have weapons in all sectors of the field. The emergence of rookie speedster RB Stevan Ridley only adds to Brady’s arsenal. This matchup is a battle of a guy who is riding waves of momentum to this game vs. a quarterback who has seen it all and done it all, and done it well. Unless something crazy happens on Saturday night the Patriots are the stronger team with the more talented roster and appear to have a great shot at moving on to the AFC Conference Final, which would be held at Gillette in Foxboro. The Hoodie is 4-6 lifetime against the Broncos including the playoffs but I don't think he's too worried about that. Before signing off and giving the VfC’s picks on this game I want to mention the Patriots bringing back former coordinator and Broncos coach Josh McDaniels. For anyone who thinks that Belichick did this solely to rattle the Broncos and get a leg up on what they might be thinking about running offensively I have two words for you: grow up. Belichick has never been one to make impulsive moves he brought back McDaniels because the team has heaps of success under his tutelage and with QB Bill O’Brien taking the job at Penn State it made sense to bring back someone who has already had success in the current system.

PICKS: Geoff, Lang, Norton, ZHawk: NE

There you have it folks a breakdown of all 4 matchups that the NFL has to offer this upcoming weekend. The only team that all 4 bloggers agreed would advance appears to be the hometown Patriots. Otherwise we’re all split, which tells me that this matchups are going to be juicy and provide some good entertainment so tune and check em out. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

NFL Playoff Picture Part II: NFC

Where the AFC has 9 the NFC has 8. I’m not going to count the Philadelphia Eagles at 4-7 who currently sit in 9^th as contenders moving forward so we’re going to draw the line at the 8^th seeded New York Giants and their 6-5 record. There hasn’t been a bigger disappointment than the Flopadelphia Eagles and their “Dream Team” – great call by the backup QB and same guy who went A.W.O.L. for 4 days last year after being pulled from the Titans starting lineup. The Eagles thought you could win championships on paper well they were rudely awakened and won’t be drinking playoff champagne this year. But like yesterday with Tim Tebow this isn’t going to be a pile on the Eagles column but rather a look at the entire National Football Conference. Even though the Packers and Niners have sewed up their respective divisions there is still a lot to play for in the other 4 spots. Let’s take a look at the contenders and then break ‘em down from there like we did in the AFC piece, which is linked here in case you missed it. The NFC top 8:

1.      Green Bay Packers (11-0)

2.      San Francisco 49ers (9-2)

3.      New Orleans Saints (8-3)

4.      Dallas Cowboys (7-4)

5.      Chicago Bears (7-4)

6.      Atlanta Falcons (7-4)

7.      Detroit Lions (7-4)

8.      New York Giants (6-5)

The NFC Norris division (that ones for you Chris Berman) and the West races are all over the only race to be watched coming out of those two divisions is whether or not the Packers can be the third team in history and second since 2007, your New England Patriots of course being the first, to play a clean regular season slate. Looking at their remaining schedule I think the Packers have a very good chance of going 16-0 with three of their remaining games at the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field and road games against the suddenly reeling Giants and Kansas City Chiefs. I’m going to take the Packers to finish 15-1 however since every team is destined for a stinker each year and the Packers frankly don’t play much defense at all. One down game from Aaron Rodgers and his WR corps and the Packers chalk one up in the loss column. Out in the NFC West the 49ers really haven’t been challenged all year and can clinch the division with a win this weekend. Jim Harbaugh has brought in a new energy and attitude to a team that desperately needed it and has responded accordingly ripping off 8 straight wins before losing the Harbaugh bowl on Thanksgiving 16-6 to the Ravens. They’ll be your 2 seed and earn a bye through the wild card weekend. Cowboys are running hot Tony Romo is throwing the ball the best he has in the past few years and DeMarco Murray is the feature back the Cowboys thought they had in Felix Jones. Though’ll hold off a surprisingly weak NFC East and wrap up the 4^th seed behind the NFC South winner.

That leaves us with 6 teams vying for 3 spots with only the Saints as clear favorites to get into the playoffs after their 49-24 shellacking of the G-Men on Monday night. Speaking of the G-Men I’m going to start off the elimination process with them, their 6-5 record, and 3 straight losses.

After they beat the Patriots 24-20 a month ago at Gillette Stadium the Giants were sitting pretty atop the NFC East holding a 6-2 record and a 2 game lead over the Dallas Cowboys. Fast forward three weeks and the G-Men are now on the outside looking in losers of three in a row and limping into a matchup with the undefeated Green Bay Packers and all World QB Aaron Rodgers. With their lack of a running game and Eli Manning falling back to Earth after a scorching start to the season the Giants are a team headed in the wrong direction and this isn’t something new. During the Tom Coughlin Era the Giants are 24-34 after the month of October. This year is no different and with a tough schedule down the stretch, Packers, Cowboys twice, Jets, and Redskins, the G-Men are going to be sitting in that 8 spot when the playoffs begin.

In a mild upset the other team I’m going to eliminate is the Caleb Hanie led Chicago Bears. If jay Cutler hadn’t broken his right thumb and been forced out of the rest of the regular season I would’ve taken them over the Detroit Lions were appear to be slightly too green for the playoffs but caught a break, pun, with the Cutler injury. If I write this column two weeks ago after the Bears housed the Lions 37-13 and Cutler was still their starter the Lions would be the pick but alas that’s why they play the games. Matt Forte is a stud but other than the Chicago offense is junk and no one on their offensive line would start for the LSU Tigers or Alabama Crimson Tide. Their defense and return games are still pretty strong but they won’t be able to hide Hanie well enough to hold onto their playoff spot. Lions are in, Bears are out.

Speaking of those Lions I’m just going to write a small piece on them since I’m going out on a limb and saying that their going to make the playoffs for the first time ever. Ok so not ever but in a really really long time. Their offense is explosive to say the least but the team struggles on the defensive side of the ball and their best defensive player, Ndamukong Suh, just got suspended 2 games for being a whack job. The Lions have a decently hard schedule down the stretch but as long as they can win 3 out of 5 they’re in. 10 wins gets them to the promise land they’ve longed to graze in for ages. Matthew Stafford is the real deal and he was the right pick at the top of the 2009 NFL Draft. Keep throwing the ball to Megatron Matty and you’ll be a-ok.

Finally let’s take a look at the NFC South race. Both teams, the Falcons and Saints are going to get in the playoffs but the division is still an open race. After a sluggish game against the putrid Rams the Saints have turned it on big time. They’ve won 3 straight and put up almost 600 yards on the Giants Monday night. Drew Brees is playing MVP caliber and would probably win that award if Aaaron Rodgers hadn’t decided to have a nearly flawless regular season. The true key to finding a division winner will come in week 16 when the Saints and Falcons tussle in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Both teams have a weak schedule besides the matchup against one another and I’m going to give the advantage to the Saints in that game. The Falcons schedule looked tougher before the Texans got forced down to TJ Yates and Jake Delhomme. It’s a home game and the Saints appear to be trending upwards quickly. The Falcons won’t be left out in the cold though they’ll draw the Cowboys in the 4 vs. 5 matchup during the wild card weekend.

There you have it folks the NFC playoff picture just got a little clearer for you let me know what you think. Until the next time we cross paths.

Geoff Jablonski