Patriots Report Card: Reflecting on the 2012 NFL Draft

About an hour before the first round commenced Thursday night I was preparing to watch another first round pass me by and when the Patriots were on the clock at the 27 spot (a pick acquired from New Orleans last year as the Patriots gave them their first round pick), watch them trade the pick for another 1^st rounder next year. And when the Patriots actual selection at the 31^st spot came up I was going to give it a 50/50 chance they’d actually make the pick. History told all Patriots fans that this is how it was going to play out. The Patriots haven’t moved up in a draft since 2003 when they jumped up a single spot to grab DE Ty Warren and 4 of the past 5 drafts they have had multiple first round selections yet have never picked more than 1 player. Once you think you’ve pegged Belichick’s next move he goes and throws you off the scent and Thursday night he did it again.

For the past few years Patriots fans have been pining for secondary help and more than anything an electrifying edge rusher who can move the quarterback off his spot. So what did Belichick do the past 3 or 4 drafts? He passed up guys like Clay Matthews, Adrian Clayborn, and DaQuan Bowers. This year though Belichick made a move to please the masses and finally traded up to secure aid for a depleted defense that was statistically horrendous last year.

The Hoodie saw DE Chandler Jones, a top 10 rated prospect by NFL Network expert Mike Mayock and Scouts Inc., slipping down the first round and made a move to jump up from 27 to 21 to snag the Syracuse athletic monster. To move up the 6 spots the Patriots had to surrender their 3^rd round pick and the 27^th overall pick. As a Patriots fan I am ecstatic to see the Patriots finally attempt to plug the gaping hole at edge rusher with a talented, strong, athletic proven commodity. Jones didn’t fall without reason however seeing that he missed the first 5 games of Syracuse’s season last year with a knee injury but he did play out the remainder of the year and racked up 4.5 sacks. Most draft experts unanimously agreed that had Jones been healthy for a full year and posted double-digit sacks he would’ve easily been a top 8 pick. Belichick was smart enough to see Jones slipping and he capitalized on other teams being weary of his knee injury much like he did two years ago when All Pro TE Rob Gronkowski slipped to the 2^nd round due to an injury. I give the move to grab Chandler Jones two thumbs up.

With their second pick of the 1^st round the Patriots again shocked the football pundits and traded the 31^st overall selection and their 4^th round pick to the Denver Broncos for their 25^th overall pick. With the 25^th pick the Patriots again made an attempt to shore up their defensive front seven by picking Alabama ILB Dont’a Hightower. Hightower was the second rated ILB in the draft behind BC’s Luke Kuechly, who went 9^th overall to the Carolina Panthers. Hightower received the endorsement of Alabama head coach Nick Saban and as most Patriots fans know, Saban is a confidant of Belichick’s and the Hoodie trusts his evaluation of collegiate talent. Hightower is versatile as well with the ability to play outside in the 4-3 and inside with Jerrod Mayo in the 3-4. Hightower isn’t as physically intimidating or powerful as Jones but he’s a gamer and I love gamers. Hightower is one of those guys who won’t dominate the combine but when the film gets turned on he stands out as a great ‘football’ player. Another good move by the Hoodie to trade up and go after the type of football player he can plug into his scheme and move around without a hiccup.

After two trades to move up in the 1^st round Thursday night the Patriots were left with only two 2^nd round picks on Friday and then a bare cabinet. For as much as I loved the Patriots two selections in the 1^st round I was equally confused by the selection of S Tavone Wilson in the 48^th spot. Going for defensive help, especially in the secondary, was the right call but Wilson wasn’t on anyone’s radar before the 4^th round AT THE EARLIEST. Yet there goes Belichick again reaching for a guy he considers ‘versatile’ just because he can stand in the safety position or slide over and stand in front of a receiver as a ‘cornerback’. Don’t get me wrong the Patriots needed help in the secondary and Wilson does provide some assistance in fixing that problem but the pick just came too early. He did it with DT Ron Brace a few years earlier and possibly CB Ras-I Dowling last year but hopefully Travon Wilson proves me wrong and shows that he was worth a top 50 selection.

With their final pick of the night, 62^nd overall, the Patriots started wheeling and dealing to gain more picks in the 3^rd and 5^th rounds. With the 3^rd round selection I applaud the Patriots for again looking at the defensive side of the ball and selecting Arkansas DE Jake Bequette, a high motor high-energy kind of player that Belichick loves. Bequette was able to register 10 sacks last year for the Razorbacks and he is a good gamble late in the 3^rd round. He’s coachable and can play special teams what more does Belichick look for in a player? Bequette solves multiple problems in one fell swoop by drafting another edge rusher who can either play with his hand in the dirt or stand up on the outside and run with special teams.

With their final 3 picks of the night the Patriots took Ohio State CB Nate Ebner, Nebraska CB Alfonzo Dennard, and Northwestern WR Jeremy Ebert. Out of those three players I only see the two CB’s with a shot of making the Patriots when they break camp. Ebert did well at Northwestern but he’s small, 5-10 190 lbs, and doesn’t project well as an NFL wide receiver. At worst Belichick can always put him on the practice squad if he feels that Ebert is too good to expose to the waiver wire. Out of the group though the one that intrigues me the most is Dennard. After the 2010 season Dennard was considered a fringe 1^st round prospect after having a sensational season, 31 tackles and 4 interceptions, alongside future Giants CB Prince Amukamara. This season Dennard again played well and was named the Big Ten’s Defensive Back of the Year but some league trouble and a few physical shortcomings, in the words of Todd McShay, ‘he has short arms and isn’t very fast, which makes a bad combo for a NFL cornerback’ forced him down in the draft. The league problems coming from a week before the draft when he got arrested for fighting outside a bar and when a police officer came over to break it up allegedly punching him in the face and resisting arrest. Not a very smart move but if Belichick thinks he has the talent to make the Patriots roster and he can make a difference in the secondary then this turns out to be a steal of a pick in the 7^th round.

Overall I thought that the Patriots had a solid draft, a little more top heavy then usual but the top 2 sure is chalk full of talent. With the additions of Jones and Bequette at the DE/OLB spot Belichick has finally brought in some in house candidates to push for playing time. With the selection of Hightower the Patriots did a great job of finding a ballplayer who can work well within Belichick’s system and is talented enough to freelance a play when need be. The Patriots paid close attention to the offensive side of the ball in free agency and turned a keen eye towards the defensive side of the ball in the draft. Out of their 7 selections the only one that I don’t truly understand is the Travon Wilson selection and hey I’ll take my chances on believing that Belichick knows what he’s doing. The Patriots turned some heads and made some trades, moving up instead of down this time, that I think long term will help solidify the defensive front seven long time. Bravo Belichick now for an encore how bout building a defense that can give Tom Brady his 4^th ring.

Geoff Jablonski

Addressing the Patriots Draft Day Needs

Welcome to the second blog post of the day! After reading about the Bruins depressing game 7 loss at home let’s take a look at an upbeat topic and that’s the NFL Draft starting tonight on ESPN in primetime.

Get ready for it Patriots fans but guess what? You got it the Patriots have 2 first round picks in this years draft! And 2 in the second round as well! The chances they take all 4 of those picks in those spots? Slim to none and slim left the building a while ago but I’m going to play it like they will use both of those picks in the first and second round to try and plug holes. In the first round the Patriots hold the 27^th pick (from N.O.) and the 31^st. In the second round they’ll pick 48^th (from OAK) and 62^nd overall.

Here are the Patriots team needs and who I think they could look at it to fill each of those needs:

Edge Pass Rushing Specialist (OLB or DE)

The Patriots biggest weakness is well known and was even more evident in the playoffs last year after revelation Andre Carter went down for the year. Carter and scrap heap pickup Mark Anderson accounted for 20 of the Patriots 40 sacks. Carter might not come back this year as he recovers from his injury and Anderson signed a lucrative contract with the Bills. Who does that leave behind to rush the passer from the edge? Overachieving OLB Rob Ninkovich, underachieving OLB Jermaine Cunningham and basically a cast of misfits at the DE spots. Belichick for years has schemed around the fact that he hasn’t had a solid edge rusher since Mike Vrabel’s hayday but its time to use one of his first round picks on a big time rusher. Last year he didn’t use any of his picks to grab a rusher and he watched Jabaal Sheard, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Hayward, and Akeem Ayers slip by just to name a few. I think the Patriots go after Boise State OLB Shea McClellin who is versatile and has been rocketing up draft boards. Other options include Illinois DE Whitney Mercilus who is inconsistent but had a great year last year, Marshall DE Vinny Curry, and if they continue to fall down draft boards either the uber talented but undermotivated North Carolina DE Quinton Coples or the productive Alabama DE Courtney Upshaw. Any of those listed above would greatly improve the Patriots ability to move opposing QB’s off their spot.

Secondary Help

Plain and simple the Patriots don’t have enough talent in their secondary to stop giving up copious amounts of big plays. Last year the Patriots were statistically atrocious and a look at the names the Patriots threw back there shows you why. Kyle Arrington smoked and mirrored his way to 7 picks but he’s more suited to be a nickelback not a shutdown corner. I don’t know what the Patriots have in Ras-I Dowling and neither do they after he had his season cut short after week 1 last year and the year before at the University of Virginia. By all indications the Patriots plan to move former Pro Bowl and Rookie of the Year CB Devin McCourty to safety full time in his 3^rd year to pair him with potential stud Patrick Chung that leaves them weak at the CB spot. Belichick isn’t afraid to address the secondary early in the draft, see: McCourty and Chung in rounds 1 and 2 in 2010, and I think he’ll do it again this year. I’m going to say that the Patriots don’t go after Notre Dame S Harrison Smith, which is what a lot of experts think they’ll do, because of McCourty’s move to safety but rather one of the two troubled CBs in former Florida Gator and current North Alabama star Janoris Jenkins or Montana CB Trumaine Johnson. Central Florida CB Josh Robinson is also a possibility if the Patriots wait til round 2 to grab some CB help. Disclaimer: Belichick could definitely grab Harrison Smith if he’s sitting there.

Defensive Tackle Help for Wilfork

Kyle Love and Myron Pryor did a great job down the stretch last year but the Patriots need another big body to help out in their interior rotation. I think this could be the position they address at the end of round 1 or with their first pick in the middle of round 2. Get the big fella Wilfork some help! A whole slew of characters are possibilities at the DT position and many of them are mid first round talents who have slipped for a myriad of reasons. From the group that is slipping the Patriots will look at Penn State DT Devon Still and Michigan State DT Jerel Worthy (I think he’d be the best fit for the Patriots if they can land him late in round 1). UConn DT Kendall Reyes was flying up draft boards about a month ago but now he’s falling back into the late 1^st early 2^nd round talk and I don’t think the Patriots would mind getting their hands on him with their pick at 48. If Reyes is gone at 48 and they didn’t get one of the other two early, Cincinnati DT Derek Wolfe could come into play. If the heavens decide to smile down on the Pats then LSU DT Michael Brockers would slip to the end of the 1^st round but don’t hold your breath on that one.

Offensive Tackle

With decade long LT Matt Light revealing his intentions to retire from the NFL the Patriots now have a need at the tackle spot. The Patriots current starting tackles look like last years first round pick Nate ‘the Boulder’ Solder and talented but oft injured German tackle Sebastian Vollmer. The Patriots could use a young backup who has the ability to step in if Vollmer isn’t fully healed from last years nightmarish injury filled year. When he’s healthy though Vollmer is a beast along the line and is the reason why the Patriots considered not bringing back Light last year. Belichick tends to build his teams from the line out and I don’t think he’ll change that philosophy now especially with his long time LT calling it a career. Solder was a solid find in the middle of round 1 last year and I think he’ll definitely take a few more large steps forward this year. If he’s still there at the end of the 1^st round I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Patriots tap Andrew Luck’s former LT in Stanford OT Jonathan Martin. If he sticks around this long, and I don’t think he will, the Patriots would also be more than happy to grab versatile Georgia OT/G Cordy Glenn. Though he doesn’t play tackle another lineman who fits the Patriots mold is bruising Wisconsin C/G Peter Konz. I’ve read multiple places that his mean streak has been likened to that of current Patriots G Logan Mankins. A dark horse here is Ohio State OT Mike Adams who has played in some big games and protected the blind side of some big time QBs.

Wide Receiver

The Patriots need to get younger at WR there’s no way around it. WR Deion Branch is getting up there in years and outside of Wes Welker the rest of the group isn’t very versatile, young, or particularly fast. Belichick has never gone into the 1^st round for a WR and I don’t think he will this year but grabbing one in the 2^nd round isn’t uncommon for him, i.e. Chad Jackson and Brandon Tate though neither one of them worked out particularly well. Two months ago I would’ve told you that Georgia Tech WR Stephen Hill would’ve been a steal in round 2 due to his ability to burn deep but now that he’s become a known commodity among the NFL’s elite he’s not going to stick around until the second round leaving the Patriots to probably say ‘Go fish’ on a receiver in the first two rounds. They’ll probably kick the tires on LSU WR Reuben Randle, Belichick does love his LSU kids, South Carolina tall guy WR Alshon Jeffery but I don’t see him taking either one. This pick will come later in the draft.

There it is folks my breakdown of the Bruins season ending prematurely and where I think the Patriots might look in tonight’s first round of the NFL draft and tomorrow’s second round. Check back after the draft for a breakdown of all the Patriots selections (and probably their multiple trades to accumulate picks in the 2013 NFL Draft). Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

Peyton Manning's Possible Landing Spot

As most of you know Peyton Manning and the Colts decided, well the Colts decided, to part ways after 14 years of blissful marriage. Since being taken 1^st overall in the 1998 NFL Draft, remember when people thought Ryan Leaf was the bid? Whoops, the name Peyton Manning has become synonymous with the horseshoe on the side of the helmet. He is Johnny Unitas for the latest generation of Colts fans. He brought the Colts franchise its first championship since sneaking away to Indianapolis in the middle of the night and its first championship since Unitas led them to 4 titles between 1958-1970. He put the Colts back on the map after years of misery and proved to be one of the greatest QB’s of all time alongside Joe Montana, Steve Young, Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, etc.

But after missing all of last season, his 14^th season in the NFL technically, due to multiple neck surgeries where finally a cadaver bone was fused into his neck the Colts were forced to make a decision on whether or not he was worth committing $28 million to this year and a total of roughly $70 million over the next 4 yeas. Coming off a horrendous year and owning the rights to the first overall pick and uber prospect Andrew Luck the Colts decided it didn’t make sense to commit that much money to two players at the QB position thus Manning became ‘expendable’. Now that Peyton has been made a free agent it’s up to him to choose where he’d like to continue his surefire Hall of Fame career. Below I’ve made a list of the 6 places (5 rumored to have expressed interest and one sleeper team I think should make a play) in order that I think would best suit Manning and are most likely to make a move for him. That’s why you’ll see the Jets who talent wise would be the best but already have a Sanchize in place not listed no. 1.

1.   Miami Dolphins

If you’ve read the news reports recently it appears that the Dolphins have already landed Manning behind closed doors. The Dolphins make perfect sense for Manning, it’s a warm weather climate, he already owns a condo in the Miami area, the team always fields a very strong defense, and offensively there are some good pieces in place namely a young, strong offensive line led by fellow first overall pick LT Jake Long. One major reason that the Colts teams Manning captained for years only broke through and won it all only one time is because the team was too offensive based and struggled on the defensive side of the ball. In Miami defense tends to come first, which is a trait that I think appeals greatly to Manning. Offensively the Dolphins have some good toys for Manning to play with in WR Brandon Marshall, who can have a case of the dropsies more often than not but is an all world talent, fellow WRs Davone Bess and Brian Hartline, TE Anthony Fasano, and RB’s Reggie Bush, who played like a number one cow bell back last year racking up over 1,000 yards, and young speedster Daniel Thomas. The pieces are in place for Manning to come in and help lead the Dolphins to a playoff bid at the very least.

2.   Kansas City Chiefs (SLEEPER ALERT)

I’ve been following the Manning saga unfold for the past couple days now and almost no one has mentioned the Kansas City Chiefs as a possible destination and I can’t figure out why? Because they have Matt Cassel? Good one, try again. The two things that completely derailed the Chiefs season last year after taking a great step forward into the playoffs was the injury to All Pro RB Jamaal Charles and then injuries at the QB position. As a Patriots fan I’m a Matt Cassel fan don’t get me wrong but if he can lead them to a 10-6 record in a weak AFC West Peyton Manning should be able to get them to at least 13 wins and a first round bye. Cassel has been a good quarterback in the few years he’s had the opportunity to play but he’s also had some injury concerns and isn’t on the level of Peyton Manning. The Chiefs have a solid, young offensive line built upon through recent drafts, a great running back in Charles, a solid receiving corps led by WR Dwayne Bowe and TE Tony Moeaki, and a young defense with solid pieces in place. Like the Dolphins they Chiefs have built from the defense to the offense and with new head coach and defensive wizard Romeo Crennel the defense should get even better. The Chiefs provide Manning an opportunity to almost guarantee a playoff berth next year by its sheer placement in the weak AFC West. Once there he could do some damage with an electrifying back like Jamaal Charles to keep defenses honest. The Chiefs would have to find a way to move Cassel to free up the cap space for Manning but I’m sure that wouldn’t be a problem.

3.   New York Jets

From a talent standpoint the Jets are probably ahead of the Dolphins on this list but there are plenty of extracurricular that don’t seem to be appealing to Manning. As far as weapons are concerned Manning would have a lot of fun with Santonio Holmes, when he’s not being a moron, Plaxico Burress (if he resigns or if they go after Braylon Edwards if you believe the rumors), Dustin Keller, an amazing weapon at tight end, and Shonn Greene. The Jets also have a good offensive line in place behind C Nick Mangold and LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson. The drawbacks? There are many. For starters he would have to put up with Mr. Abrasive Rex Ryan, the New York media always being on his ass, the constant dissention that seems to be occurring in the Jets locker room, and having to share the big city with his younger brother who has recently been the bigger winner. I’m sure the Jets would love to score Manning but they’ve also committed long term time and again to Mark Sanchez, even though he seems to have plateaued, and would need to move his money. I don’t see it in the cards.

4.   Seattle Seahawks

I like what the Seahawks have to offer but I don’t think Manning wants to go to the unfamiliar NFC or the Pacific Northwest. Pete Carroll has built a decent little program up there in Seattle after leaving USC in ruins by developing a solid, young offensive line and finding the good in RB Marshawn Lynch. All in all though I don’t think Manning wants to head out to the west coast this late in his career or deal with the inclement weather that tends to strike the Pacific Northwest in the fall. Seahawks would like Manning but I don’t think Manning would want the Seahawks.

5.   Arizona Cardinals

I have the Cardinals as fifth on this list but Manning could pull a shocker and pick them based on the fact that they play in a beautiful environment, it’s always warm never a chance of showers or snow, he can get a condo there and simulate the Miami weather, and they have WR Larry Fitzgerald. In my eyes Fitzgerald is the key piece to Manning possibly heading to the desert. If Manning wants to throw to arguably the best wide receiver in football then he needs to look no further than Arizona. The Cardinals made a good run down the stretch this year and almost pulled off a playoff berth with John Skelton at the helm. Manning could easily lead them to a NFC West crown and a playoff berth. The Cards have some pieces in place but I don’t know if they have enough to draw Manning to the NFC. The obvious problem here is the Cards just shelled out $50 million to Kevin Kolb who hasn’t proven yet he can be a number one QB. They’d need to move him before Manning would entertain the thought of heading out to the desert.

6.   Washington Redskins

Ah yes, the Redskins. If you’ve been reading the reports put forth by numerous news sources then you know that the Redskins plan on putting a full court press on the All Pro QB. While its well and great that Daniel Snyder has deep pockets and has no problem paying out the nose for Manning the bigger problem here is that there is almost nothing redeeming about the situation in the nation’s capital for Manning to walk in to. Outside of the fact that the Redskin’s are a marquee franchise in the NFL, though if you didn’t watch football during the first Joe Gibbs era you only know the Redskins as a dysfunctional bunch, the current squad is nothing to write home about. There defense has a few playmakers in Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan but is otherwise suspect and offensively there’s nothing there. Roy Helu had a nice rookie year but he’s not the type of back you get too jacked up about and their best wide receiver Santana Moss is currently a free agent. Mike Shanahan also isn’t the type of coach that Manning has thrived under, no one would ever confuse his tactics for those of Tony Dungy. As I said before as well the Redskins play in the NFC, con, they aren’t warm weather ideal, con, and Peyton would have to play his brother twice a year, con. I think that about sums up the Redskins chances of landing Peyton and his golden right arm.

Other possibilities that have emerged recently: Denver Broncos, Houston Texans (they’d be the best fit of all if the rumors are true and they are willing to part with Matt Schaub and mortgage the future to win now)

There’s the list of possibilities for Peyton Manning as I see it folks and in the end I see him winding up with the Miami Dolphins. But hey that’s just one man’s opinion let us know where you think Peyton will find himself throwing touchdown passes next year! Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

Causeway Street Patriots Nation turns its lonely eyes to you

Quick question Red Sox and Patriots Nation what building houses the last two Boston sports champions simultaneously? Ding ding ding! Time’s up! Sorry Gillette but it’s not you with the Revolution and Patriots nor is it you Fenway Park with the Red Sox and the Liverpool whatevers but it’s you TD Garden!

The TD Garden suffered for years through a myriad of names ranging from the Fleet Center and multiple other random names including at one point when you could by the rights to name the stadium whatever you wanted for a day – fun fact. Finally (mercifully a better word?) though it’s two inhabitants, the Bruins and Celts, finally turned the corner from habitual first round exit and perpetual suckfest, respectively, and rewarded the Boston faithful with a Stanley Cup and an NBA championship. In the past 5 years the Bruins and Celtics are the only champions that the great region of New England has to boast about to those arrogant New York pricks. The Red Sox have come close in that 5 year window losing in game 7 of the ALCS to those loveable Tampa Bay Rays, I know I should hate them because they’re in the AL East but boy are they fun to watch and they just seem to do everything the right way, and the Patriots have made it to the biggest game on Earth twice as favorites only to be turned away by the fuckin’ Giants, sorry still a little bitter about Super Bowl XLII and XLVI, yet it’s only the Bruins and Celtics who have delivered the crowns upon which titletown USA was built: the Stanley Cup and NBA title. After watching the Red Sox win the 2010 offseason and subsequently drink there way to infamy during the 2011 baseball season and then turning their eyes and watching the Patriots go from a solid team who should win a playoff game or two to Super Bowl favorites only to be bested by Eli Manning it’s now time that Boston turns its sad eyes back to the Bruins and Celtics in hopes that they’ll quell that championship thirst.

The Red Sox turned out to be the ultimate paper champions when the shit hit the fan and the Patriots gave it a valiant effort but if you honestly thought that Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo and their band of misfits we’re going to stop Eli on that last drive after the Welker-Brady miscue then you’re a better fan than I can ever be. It was becoming more and more clear throughout that game that the defense was playing masterfully but the ball just wasn’t fumbling the Patriots way and midnight was bound to strike soon on the Cinderella defensive scheme, yet I digress. Back to the topic at hand which is the Celtics and mostly the Bruins carry on their shoulders the Boston fan bases hopes and dreams for being the sports elite and lately they’ve done a fine job of it. Time to take a glimpse at each team’s chances of restoring the peace in Beantown.

First up we have the Celtics who about a month ago didn’t appear anywhere near sniffing the second round of the playoffs let alone a shot at the title but recently they’ve started to gain some steam with no coincidence that they’re resurgence coincides with Paul Pierce getting healthy again and KG looking the best he has since the devastating knee injury of three years ago. Before KG blew out his knee against Utah 3 odd years ago the Celtics appeared poised to make it two rings in three years but since then they’ve still managed to make it to game 7 of the NBA finals against the vaunted Lakers before blowing a late lead in L.A. but last year they were bounced unceremoniously by the new Big Three in Miami.

The Celtics started the abbreviated 2011-12 year 0-3 and then 4-8 before ripping off 9 out of 10 with a 5 win streak currently in their midst. The shortened season tends to favor a team like the Celtics as long as they can get into the playoffs in the top 4 seeds. A shortened season favors older teams who are good enough to allow their old dogs a few games off here and there and still track down one of those top seeds. Home court has always been crucial for this latest version of the Celtics. The swap of big baby Glen Davis for Brandon Bass has looked like a stroke of genius on the part of GM Danny Ainge and another mind numbing mistake by Orlando GM Otis Smith. Bass has been a better offensive player and a better defender and rebounder than baby while playing alongside Garnett he’s done a great job of bringing out the firey defender in Garnett once again. When Garnett is defending like he has been lately while also pouring in between 15-20 points and grabbing roughly 10 rebounds the Celtics are on the right track. Ray Allen has been phenomenal all year and he’s the kind of guy who takes pride in staying in shape over the long haul. Pierce took the beginning of the year to get healthy and as long as he can stay in shape he’s a great offensive piece to center it all around. Rajon Rondo makes this offense tick and his health will be one of the keys to the Celtics making a run deep into the playoffs, just if he could shoot but oh well.

The true key in my mind will be whether or not Ainge is able to swing a deal for a body to defend the paint and chip in some offense because as good a player as he was in his hay day Jermaine O’Neal just can’t stay healthy enough to be a solid contributor over the long haul. Mikael Pietrus is a great wing defender and once he settles in he’ll be a huge piece coming off the bench down the stretch and the Celtics are all set backing up the guard spots with veteran Keyon Dooling and youngster Avery Bradley. Bradley has settled in nicely and is playing very good perimeter defense and taking care of the ball not much more you can ask for in a backup PG. The Celtics are a big body and possibly a wing scorer off the bench from giving the Heat, Bulls, Mavs, Lakers and anyone else one last run for their money. There is hope but don’t hang your hat on it rather I’d hitch my wagon to the latest Boston champion: the Boston Bruins.

As an abashed Bruins fan who watched and had my heart broken by the Spoked B my entire life watching them blow top seeds and get bumped out by the dreaded Canadiens habitually last years run to the Stanley Cup was absolutely orgasmic. For once the Bruins were the team who got ridiculously hot at exactly the right team and ran train on the rest of the league. The Bruins were the ones with the top goaltender, Timmy Thomas, who could stop mass quantities of rubber on command and lead his team to numerous 1-0 and 2-0 victories. The Bruins were also the ones with the annoying as shit guy in Brad Marchand and the gifted offensive talent who caught fire at just right the time in David Krejci. It was beautiful to watch the Bruins exile their past demons by coming back from a 2-0 hole against the Canadiens in round 1 and then sweeping the Flyers, who just the year before had sent the Bruins into the history books by rebounding from a 3-0 series deficit to advance, with beat down after beat down. They then leaned on 2-time, in 3 years might I add, Vezina Trophy winner Tim Thomas to carry them past the very gifted but goaltenderless Tampa Bay Lightning in 7 games. Finally in the Stanley Cup Finals the Bruins squared off their polar opposite in the savvy but weak President Trophy winning Vancouver Canucks and after losing the first two games in Vancouver rebounded to humiliate the Canucks and Roberto Luongo throughout the last 5 games by winning 4 and the Cup.

After a deep run in the playoffs and the retirement of the Bruins heart and soul Mark Recchi the Bruins understandably got off to a super slow start this year before rebounding in a big way. After the season’s first month and first ten games the Bruins were an abysmal 3-7 and looked brutal after losing a home and home to the Canadiens. I don’t know what Claude Julien did but he found a way to light a fire under his teams ass and watched them rip off 10 straight wins and points in 15 straight with their only non win point coming in a 3-2 shootout loss to the Western Conference leader Detroit Red Wings. That’s 29 out of a possible 30 points. Led by young sniper whiz kid Tyler Seguin and the league’s best goaltending tandem the Bruins found their stride and after dropping two in a row then won 7 more in a row. The Bruins have hit a little bit of a snag lately with some poor losses against some below par teams but have still been able to keep up the pace with the top team in the Eastern Conference: the New York Blueshirts.

Peter Chiarelli found a way to wrestle power and money away from the Jacobs family like no one has been able to before and he has rewarded the Hub of Hockey with one championship and a very real possibility of another one. The Bruins are loaded with young talent and depth up to wazoo not to mention the top goaltending tandem in hockey: Tuuka Rask and Tim Thomas. The Bruins already have a 20-goal scorer in Tyler Seguin and 4 other guys over 15 goals: Patrice Bergeron (15) Nathan Horton (17) Milan Lucic (19) Brad Marchand (19). With a reinvented power play (11^th in the league at 18.5%, thanks to Tyler Seguin channeling his inner Marc Savard and being able to control the halfwall), the usual amazing penalty killing (7^th in the NHL), a GAA of 2.2 (4^th), and a GFA of 3.4 (1^st) the Bruins are the envy of the NHL currently. On any given night Julien can move his ‘first line’ center David Krejci who has become more and more of a magician with the puck to the third line and bring defensive minded Chris Kelly up to the first line and still pull off a 4-1 win over the Southeast Conference leading Washington Capitals.

Defensively Julien’s system is better than ever and you can thank Big Z, Zdeno Chara, coupled with the emergence of Dennis Seidenberg, Johnny Boychuck, Andrew Ference and Adam McQuaid teamed up with his amazing backstops for keeping the Bruins near the top of the league in GAA. The Bruins have depth for days and 3 very solid lines that can score at will and a 4^th line that is amazing at beating and battering the other teams top lines. All of this goes without mentioning the best reason why the Bruins have a very good chance of piecing back together New England’s broken hearts by making a run deep in the playoffs: the play of the Seguin-Bergeron-Marchand line. The Bruins second line has become one of the top 3 or 4 lines in the league and has been producing points at an unreal rate. In 51 games Bergeron has 46 points to lead the Bruins Seguin is a close second with 44 points and Marchand is pulling up the rear with 38 points. This line can shut down another teams top line while also putting a few goals up on the board what more can you ask for? The Bruins have a shot to repeat and win a title that New England feels it deserves after having the Super Bowl pulled from the grasp for the 2^nd time in 5 years.

There you have it folks a few reasons why there is a legitimate shot that either the Bruins or Celtics will be able to deliver a championship in June 2012. If I was a betting man I wouldn’t hesitate to throw a few bones the way of the Bruins and maybe even grab the Celtics if the odds were right because if things break their way you never know what a few old dogs might be able to pull off. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

NFL Conference Semifinals Here We Come

Last week’s NFL Wild Card round provided a one close matchup and three blowouts, not exactly the most exciting Wild Card weekend I’ve ever seen. The one close matchup though featured two of the NFL’s most controversial quarterbacks in Ben ‘Rapelisberger’ Roethlisberger and Tim ‘The Voice of Christ’ Tebow. The Broncos played the game in reverse order of how they’ve been winning during the regular season by jumping on the Steelers early and then fumbling away a lead late allowing the Big Raper to bring back the Steel Curtain and send the game to OT. He forgot one thing though that on the other sideline Tebow Time was getting ready to make his playoff OT debut. One play in OT, one TD, one Broncos win. Off to New England for a date with the top seeded Patriots for the Tebow show. Man another blog about the NFL and again I’ve managed to allow Tebow to devour my entire first paragraph, oh well he’s a polarizing guy but anywho moving on.

In the other three games the enigmatic Giants easily dispatched the Falcons 24-2, the Texans ran by the Bengals 31-10 for their first franchise postseason win, and the Saints went aerial against the Lions for a final score of 45-28. That leaves us with the following matchups going into the Conference Semifinals: (3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers and the (4) New York Giants at (1) Green Bay Packers in the NFC with (3) Houston Texans at (2) Baltimore Ravens and (4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots. The chalk reigned supreme in the Wild Card round for the first time in a while leading to 4 darn good matchups this weekend. Let’s take a look at each matchup individually and then give you each View from the Couch bloggers picks.

NFC

(3) New Orleans Saints at (2) San Francisco 49ers

The Saints have been hotter than Gisele Bundchen in the past 6 weeks or so with Drew Brees leading the track meet. Their opponent this week, the 49ers, started off strong and stayed strong throughout the entire regular season behind first year head coach Jim Harbaugh and reinvented former #1 overall pick QB Alex Smith. The 49ers adopted a ground and pound approach for this year and it has paid huge dividends leading to a 13-3 record and first round bye. The Saints have an identical 13-3 record but win thru the air not on the ground and in the trenches like the 49ers. The outcome of this game will be determined by whether or not the 49ers can do enough to slowdown the Saints prolific offense. If the Saints can get into the 30s the 49ers will have trouble keeping pace. If the 49ers can keep the Saints in the low 20s however and use Frank Gore, depending on if the healthy Frank Gore shows up, to grind out the clock and put some points on the board at the end of long drawn out drives. Smith isn’t designed to lead a team on a comeback so that’s probably out of the equation. Get ahead early and stay there is the 49ers game plan.

PICKS: Geoff, ZHawk, Lang: NO, Norton: SF

(4) New York Giants at (1) Green Bay Packers

This is a matchup of the Week 13 show down when the Giants nearly knocked off the then undefeated Packers 38-35. The difference is this matchup is in Lambeau instead of at home for the GMen and the GMen also lost their only remaining corner with a pulse in Aaron Ross. The Packers finished the regular season 15-1 with their only blemish coming to a Chiefs team who had no business ruining their perfect regular season. They are led by All World QB Aaron Rodgers (Who’s Brett Favre again?) and a lethal receiving corps. Defensively the Packers have multiple playmakers in OLB Clay Matthews, DT BJ Raji, and CB Charles Woodson but that didn’t stop the Packers from holding down the 32^nd ranked pass defense. That’s good news for the Giants who despite running for 172 yards last week against the Falcons are a pass first team led by Eli Manning who had a career year. The Giants will go as far as Manning and his right arm can take them. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks should present some problems for the Packers secondary but the key to the Giants passing game is going to be their embattled offensive lines ability to keep the Packers rushers at bay. Offensively for the Packers the key will be getting the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hand early thus negating the Giants stellar pass rush. If the Packers can do that and jump out to an early lead they should have no problem coasting to the Conference Finals. If the Giants on the other hand can get after Rodgers and disrupt his rhythm and timing then ladies and gentleman we’ve got a battle royale on our hands.

PICKS: Geoff, Lang: GB, Norton, ZHawk: NYG

AFC

(3) Houston Texans at (2) Baltimore Ravens

The vaunted AFC North put three teams into the playoffs but only one of them will be playing this weekend: the Baltimore Ravens who had a bye and didn’t have the opportunity to lose last weekend like the Steelers and Bengals. The Ravens earned the AFC North crown and their first round bye and thus get the beat up Texans at home in round 2. The Texans continued their season of firsts for the franchise by getting their first postseason victory during the season when they recorded their first winning record, their first division title, and first postseason appearance. Much of those firsts can be attributed to the emergence of a topflight defense led by great coordinator horrible head coach Wade Phillips. Phillips has turned around the league’s worst defense and made it a top 5 difference-making defense. It also doesn’t hurt to have a guy who is running like his hairs on fire (that one’s for you Richard Pryor) Arian Foster who racked up 154 yards and 2 TDs against a good Bengals defense. The biggest problem the Texans will have in this rematch from earlier in the year when Foster only ran for 64 yards on 15 carries is that T.J. Yates is your starting quarterback. You’re talking about a 3^rd string rookie quarterback on the road. Yates is going to have to throw the ball around a little bit because you know Baltimore is going to stack the box against the run and shade all coverage towards Andre Johnson. The Ravens as always have a strong defense though it’s getting older I expect they’ll do a good job bottling up Yates. Offensively the Ravens will only go as far as Ray Rice can carry them. QB Joe Flacco has been a lightning rod for criticism because a lot of people feel he hasn’t taken steps forward but all he needs to do is protect the ball and make sure Ray Rice gets a million touches. If the Texans can get a few turnovers and hold Rice under 100 yards effectively making Flacco beat them deep they have to like their chances. Rookie WR Torrey Smith will also have to have an eye kept on him because he can easily haul in a 65-yard TD and swing the momentum Baltimore’s way. All eyes are on you to make sure that doesn’t happen Jonathan Joseph.

PICKS: Geoff, Norton: HOU, Lang, ZHawk: BAL

(4) Denver Broncos at (1) New England Patriots

Another week and another team gets Tebowed. Tebow Time is making its first career appearance in round 2 of the playoffs against the top seeded Patriots. These two teams played in Week 15 at Mile High and the Patriots whooped up on the Broncos 41-23 ending the Broncos 6 game winning streak and sending them into a tailspin to end the season. The Broncos still won the putrid AFC West however and then somewhat shocked the world by sneaking by a decimated Pittsburgh Steelers team in round 1. Tim Tebow only completed 10 passes but managed to rack up 316 yards (204 of them to Demaryious Thomas) and 2 scores. He also rushed the ball 10 times for 50 yards and a score. Tebow and the Broncos have unreal momentum not to mention God on their side but the last time they played the offensive juggernaut Patriots they got dismantled. No the Patriots can’t stop anyone thru the air but luckily for them Tebow can’t hit receivers consistently and that was before he, most likely, lost his top target WR Eric Decker after he got hit hard by James Harrison last week (shocker). In that mid December matchup the Broncos ran the ball in the first quarter for over 160 yards but after that they only managed to rack up 80 yards total in the next 3 quarters. The Broncos also jumped out to an early 16-7 lead only to give up 34 straight points to the Pats. The Patriots are led by two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl Champion QB Tom Brady and the Hoodie. The Patriots are the closest thing to a dynasty that football has seen since the Niners in the late 80s and the Cowboys in the early 90s. Though the Patriots haven’t won a playoff game in 3 years they are focused and ready to derail the Tebow Train and take advantage of their home field advantage throughout. With WR Wes Welker and TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez the Patriots have weapons in all sectors of the field. The emergence of rookie speedster RB Stevan Ridley only adds to Brady’s arsenal. This matchup is a battle of a guy who is riding waves of momentum to this game vs. a quarterback who has seen it all and done it all, and done it well. Unless something crazy happens on Saturday night the Patriots are the stronger team with the more talented roster and appear to have a great shot at moving on to the AFC Conference Final, which would be held at Gillette in Foxboro. The Hoodie is 4-6 lifetime against the Broncos including the playoffs but I don't think he's too worried about that. Before signing off and giving the VfC’s picks on this game I want to mention the Patriots bringing back former coordinator and Broncos coach Josh McDaniels. For anyone who thinks that Belichick did this solely to rattle the Broncos and get a leg up on what they might be thinking about running offensively I have two words for you: grow up. Belichick has never been one to make impulsive moves he brought back McDaniels because the team has heaps of success under his tutelage and with QB Bill O’Brien taking the job at Penn State it made sense to bring back someone who has already had success in the current system.

PICKS: Geoff, Lang, Norton, ZHawk: NE

There you have it folks a breakdown of all 4 matchups that the NFL has to offer this upcoming weekend. The only team that all 4 bloggers agreed would advance appears to be the hometown Patriots. Otherwise we’re all split, which tells me that this matchups are going to be juicy and provide some good entertainment so tune and check em out. Until we cross paths again.

Geoff Jablonski

Fantasy Forum Week 13: Studs/Duds

After a week hiatus due to the Thanksgiving festivities, little bit of Views from the Couch family time if you will, the fantasy forum is back in action for week 13. Week 12 was a doozy with fantasy dud to this point in the season CJ1K going off for 190 yards against the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense and Mark Sanchez torching the Bills atrocious defense for 4 TD’s. Rest assured if there had been a fantasy forum for week 12 they both would’ve been on the studs list. Onto the week 13 studs and duds!

Season: 12-7 (4-3 last week)

STUDS

Tony Romo QB Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals secondary

For four straight weeks Romo has thrown at least 2 TD passes with two 3/0 TD/INT games thrown into the mix. He’s gone off for 20, 22, 23, and 13 points the past four weeks. He threw his only two interceptions during the four game streak against the Dolphins defense on Thanksgiving but the Fins have a very respectable front seven on defense and a solid secondary. The Cardinals have neither an exceptional front seven nor secondary aside from rookie CB Patrick Peterson has made a bigger impact in the return game than on defense I don’t see him being able to slow down Dez Bryant or Laurent Robinson. Speaking of Laurent Robinson that’s 7 TD’s in the past 5 games I see Romo keeping the hot hand alive.

Stats: 323 yards, 3 TDs, 0 Int, 2 rush, 5 yards

Tom Brady QB New England Patriots vs. the NFL’s punching bag Indianapolis Colts

Tom Brady tends to sit in the stud realm on a weekly basis but this week we’re looking at the possibility of 6 TDs throw the air and over 400 yards in about 3 quarters worth of work. The only thing that’s going to slow him down is whether or not Bill Belichick sits Tom early in the game and knowing the Hoodie I don’t think Brady sits until late in the 4^th. He’s never been shy about leaving his superstar QB in late into blowouts and by his own admission Tom Terrific doesn’t like leaving games until the clocks read 00:00. Brady is going to go wild and send the Colts to 0-12. ESPN has him projected at 25 but I see that as a little light I’m going over 30 fantasy points.

Stats: 382 yards, 5 TDs, 0 Int

New England Patriots D/ST vs. the Indianapolis ‘Suck for Luck’ Colts offense

Dan Orlovsky, need I say more? Orlovsky is attempting to become the first QB in NFL history to lead TWO teams, the 2008 Detroit Lions and this years Colts, to 0-16 records. I’m pulling for you Danny boy and I hope the Patriots can help you along your trek towards the history books. The last three games the Patriots defense has forced 7 turnovers and allowed 13.0 PPG. They lit up Tyler Palko for 19 points I see them being able to top that this week.

Stats: 193 yards against, 7 points against, 3 sacks, 2 Ints, 2 FumRec, 1 TD

DUDS

Steven Jackson RB St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers #1 run defense

The Rams offense is terrible and it all starts with their horrendous offensive line. A porous offensive line has caused young QB Sam Bradford to take leaps backward after appearing to be a future superstar last year. Bradford and the passing games inefficiency have caused the Rams to lean quite heavily on Jackson. The only problem is that the offensive line isn’t any better at run blocking then it is pass blocking. Jackson had a few very good games against a few subpar run defenses he was held in check the past two weeks as the offense struggled severely to move the ball. A horrible offensive line, an out of sync offense, and a matchup with the 49ers #1 ranked run defense means bad news Bears for our man S-Jax. Its never easy to sit a usually reliable RB but if you have alternatives I’d look their direction.

Stats: 18 carries, 43 yards, 0 TD, 3 rec, 22 yards

Andre Johnson WR Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons pass defense

After a 6 week hiatus one of the top 3 receivers drafted in this years fantasy drafts Johnson was expected by owners to come back last week against the Jaguars and rack up big yards and fantasy points. Wrong. Johnson was targeted only 3 times and reeled in 2 catches for 22 yards. He appeared to be out of rhythm and with the Texans down to third string QB T.J. Yates I don’t see Johnson’s number going up anytime soon. If he can’t reel in a touchdown pass or the Texans don’t find themselves down early I don’t see the Texans abandoning the run and throwing the ball very often. With Arian Foster and Ben Tate the Texans have one of the most potent rushing attacks in the league and they’ll lean on them heavily at the expense of Johnson.

Stats: 3 rec, 36 yards, 0 TDs

C.J. Spiller RB Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans

All the fantasy owners out there that hurried to pick up Spiller after stud RB Fred Jackson went down for the year had to be disappointed in last week’s production. Spiller was handed the starting job against the Jets and subsequently given 22 touches but what he did with those touches wasn’t too encouraging: 19 carries, 55 yards, 3 rec, 15 yards. The Bills drafted Spiller 9^th overall in the 2010 draft under the impression that he was a big play back who could break it on any given play. That hasn’t come to fruition yet and I don’t see it happening this week against a halfway decent Titans defense. He’s going to get upwards of 20 touches but I don’t see him reaching the end zone and in fantasy that’s what gets you points and wins you matchups. Don’t start Spiller.

Stats: 18 carries, 61 yards, 4 rec, 18 yards

There you have it folks week 13’s fantasy forum: studs and duds. Take the advice you’ve been given and start ‘em or sit ‘em. Good luck to all dedicated readers as the fantasy football playoffs creep up next week.  Until we cross paths again…

Geoff Jablonski

NFL Playoff Picture Part II: NFC

Where the AFC has 9 the NFC has 8. I’m not going to count the Philadelphia Eagles at 4-7 who currently sit in 9^th as contenders moving forward so we’re going to draw the line at the 8^th seeded New York Giants and their 6-5 record. There hasn’t been a bigger disappointment than the Flopadelphia Eagles and their “Dream Team” – great call by the backup QB and same guy who went A.W.O.L. for 4 days last year after being pulled from the Titans starting lineup. The Eagles thought you could win championships on paper well they were rudely awakened and won’t be drinking playoff champagne this year. But like yesterday with Tim Tebow this isn’t going to be a pile on the Eagles column but rather a look at the entire National Football Conference. Even though the Packers and Niners have sewed up their respective divisions there is still a lot to play for in the other 4 spots. Let’s take a look at the contenders and then break ‘em down from there like we did in the AFC piece, which is linked here in case you missed it. The NFC top 8:

1.      Green Bay Packers (11-0)

2.      San Francisco 49ers (9-2)

3.      New Orleans Saints (8-3)

4.      Dallas Cowboys (7-4)

5.      Chicago Bears (7-4)

6.      Atlanta Falcons (7-4)

7.      Detroit Lions (7-4)

8.      New York Giants (6-5)

The NFC Norris division (that ones for you Chris Berman) and the West races are all over the only race to be watched coming out of those two divisions is whether or not the Packers can be the third team in history and second since 2007, your New England Patriots of course being the first, to play a clean regular season slate. Looking at their remaining schedule I think the Packers have a very good chance of going 16-0 with three of their remaining games at the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field and road games against the suddenly reeling Giants and Kansas City Chiefs. I’m going to take the Packers to finish 15-1 however since every team is destined for a stinker each year and the Packers frankly don’t play much defense at all. One down game from Aaron Rodgers and his WR corps and the Packers chalk one up in the loss column. Out in the NFC West the 49ers really haven’t been challenged all year and can clinch the division with a win this weekend. Jim Harbaugh has brought in a new energy and attitude to a team that desperately needed it and has responded accordingly ripping off 8 straight wins before losing the Harbaugh bowl on Thanksgiving 16-6 to the Ravens. They’ll be your 2 seed and earn a bye through the wild card weekend. Cowboys are running hot Tony Romo is throwing the ball the best he has in the past few years and DeMarco Murray is the feature back the Cowboys thought they had in Felix Jones. Though’ll hold off a surprisingly weak NFC East and wrap up the 4^th seed behind the NFC South winner.

That leaves us with 6 teams vying for 3 spots with only the Saints as clear favorites to get into the playoffs after their 49-24 shellacking of the G-Men on Monday night. Speaking of the G-Men I’m going to start off the elimination process with them, their 6-5 record, and 3 straight losses.

After they beat the Patriots 24-20 a month ago at Gillette Stadium the Giants were sitting pretty atop the NFC East holding a 6-2 record and a 2 game lead over the Dallas Cowboys. Fast forward three weeks and the G-Men are now on the outside looking in losers of three in a row and limping into a matchup with the undefeated Green Bay Packers and all World QB Aaron Rodgers. With their lack of a running game and Eli Manning falling back to Earth after a scorching start to the season the Giants are a team headed in the wrong direction and this isn’t something new. During the Tom Coughlin Era the Giants are 24-34 after the month of October. This year is no different and with a tough schedule down the stretch, Packers, Cowboys twice, Jets, and Redskins, the G-Men are going to be sitting in that 8 spot when the playoffs begin.

In a mild upset the other team I’m going to eliminate is the Caleb Hanie led Chicago Bears. If jay Cutler hadn’t broken his right thumb and been forced out of the rest of the regular season I would’ve taken them over the Detroit Lions were appear to be slightly too green for the playoffs but caught a break, pun, with the Cutler injury. If I write this column two weeks ago after the Bears housed the Lions 37-13 and Cutler was still their starter the Lions would be the pick but alas that’s why they play the games. Matt Forte is a stud but other than the Chicago offense is junk and no one on their offensive line would start for the LSU Tigers or Alabama Crimson Tide. Their defense and return games are still pretty strong but they won’t be able to hide Hanie well enough to hold onto their playoff spot. Lions are in, Bears are out.

Speaking of those Lions I’m just going to write a small piece on them since I’m going out on a limb and saying that their going to make the playoffs for the first time ever. Ok so not ever but in a really really long time. Their offense is explosive to say the least but the team struggles on the defensive side of the ball and their best defensive player, Ndamukong Suh, just got suspended 2 games for being a whack job. The Lions have a decently hard schedule down the stretch but as long as they can win 3 out of 5 they’re in. 10 wins gets them to the promise land they’ve longed to graze in for ages. Matthew Stafford is the real deal and he was the right pick at the top of the 2009 NFL Draft. Keep throwing the ball to Megatron Matty and you’ll be a-ok.

Finally let’s take a look at the NFC South race. Both teams, the Falcons and Saints are going to get in the playoffs but the division is still an open race. After a sluggish game against the putrid Rams the Saints have turned it on big time. They’ve won 3 straight and put up almost 600 yards on the Giants Monday night. Drew Brees is playing MVP caliber and would probably win that award if Aaaron Rodgers hadn’t decided to have a nearly flawless regular season. The true key to finding a division winner will come in week 16 when the Saints and Falcons tussle in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Both teams have a weak schedule besides the matchup against one another and I’m going to give the advantage to the Saints in that game. The Falcons schedule looked tougher before the Texans got forced down to TJ Yates and Jake Delhomme. It’s a home game and the Saints appear to be trending upwards quickly. The Falcons won’t be left out in the cold though they’ll draw the Cowboys in the 4 vs. 5 matchup during the wild card weekend.

There you have it folks the NFC playoff picture just got a little clearer for you let me know what you think. Until the next time we cross paths.

Geoff Jablonski

NFL Playoff Picture Getting Clearer: AFC Breakdown

We’re now through 12 weeks and the playoff race in the AFC has started to take a more definitive shape. There are 9 teams vying for 6 spots, the cutoff is the Bills at 10 so sorry Buffalo but losing 4 in a row and your top offensive player in Fred Jackson doesn’t allow you to be vying for a playoff spot anymore. Of those 9 teams the Bengals, Broncos, and Titans all appear to shift from week to week on whether they are pretenders or contenders. I know that Denver starts Tim Tebow at quarterback and shouldn’t really be in this conversation but there’s not much else to say other than he’s 5-1 as a starter and the team, mostly the defense, rallies around him more and more each week. They can’t score a lick and I’m pretty sure John Fox has Tebow running a dumbed down version of the offense from “Football for Dumbies” but a win is a win. Back to the subject at hand this isn’t going to be a rant or rave about Tim Tebow but a look at all the teams, here is how the AFC top 9 line up currently:

1. Houston Texans (8-3)
2. New England Patriots (8-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (8-3)
4. Oakland Raiders (7-4)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
7. New York Jets (6-5)
8. Denver Broncos (6-5)
9. Tennessee Titans (6-5)

Now let’s break these standings down and I’m going to throw at you how I think this race is going to shake out.

You are seeing straight that is the Houston Texans sitting in the top slot. A franchise that has never had a winning record is currently your number one seed though I see that changing in the near future with the news that Matt Leinart is out for the year and the team just signed Jake “Day Light Come And I Wanna” Delhomme. The Texans are still going to win the weak AFC South but I don’t see them holding onto the top spot over the likes of the Patriots and Steelers. They’ll settle in nicely to the 3 seed ahead of the (spoiler alert!) AFC West champion Oakland Raiders. The other shoo-ins as far as this blogger is concerned are the Patriots, Ravens, and Steelers. Those three teams know how to win when the mercury drops below 32 and the calendar turns to January, I don’t see that changing this year. All three sit at 8-3 with each having the possibility of running the table. The Patriots play an extremely weak schedule the last 5 weeks of the year so I see them penciling in as the 1 seed with a 13-3 final tally. The Steelers and Ravens will battle it out for the other bye and the 2 seed. I’m going to lean towards the Ravens since they’ve already beaten the Steelers twice thus owning the tiebreaker. All they have to do is play the Steelers even down the stretch and they get the coveted bye through the wildcard weekend. Steelers will finish either 12-4 or 11-5 securing themselves the 5 seed behind the 4 division winners. Between the Patriots, Ravens, Texans, and Steelers that’s four spots out of six locked down let’s take a peek at who might grab those final two openings.

Handicapping The Rest of the Field

We’ve now decided the definite lets look at who’s left and who is going to punch a ticket to the dance and who’s going to be left out in the cold. I’m going to eliminate the Tennessee Titans from the race right off the bat. CJ1K has been a ghost all year and has only had two really good games all year and they came against the porous run defenses of the Tampa Bay Bucs and Carolina Panthers. Against everyone else he’s struggled to break the 40-yard mark while Matt Hasselbeck has been firing off interceptions like it’s going out of style. They still have games against the Saints and Texans left I don’t see them cracking the 10 wins it takes to even sniff the playoffs. Titans are off the list.

Next team up that I’m going to eliminate is those pesky Denver Broncos. There hasn’t been a simpler offense run in the NFL since the ball was oval shaped and passing was considered awkward at best. The Broncos beat the Chiefs a few weeks ago after attempting only 8 passes, completing 2, and running the ball 55 times. This week they beat the free falling Chargers in OT with Tebow completing 9-18 and running the ball over 20 times. I personally fall under the belief that it’s more of an indictment on the Chargers and Chiefs not playing well than the belief that this high school option offense will have continued success at the NFL level. There’s a reason that option quarterbacks don’t transition from college to the pros if they did the quarterbacks of Army, Navy, and the Air Force would all be top 10 picks. Tebow is winning now but teams will realize he’s not a threat to pass the ball effectively and the magic will run out. Broncos land on the outside looking in.

Eliminating the Broncos means that I’m crowning the Oakland Raiders the AFC West champions as I mentioned a few paragraphs above. The Raiders have actually been playing halfway decent with Carson Palmer steering the ship and Michael Bush picking up the slack while Run DMC’s foot heals. When the Raiders get him back and have their entire WR corps healthy the Raiders will stand a punchers chance moving forward. They can hold off the Broncos and their Tebowing. They’re in as AFC West champions and the 4 seed.

Then there were two…the current 6 seed Cincinnati Bengals and the 7 seed New York Jets. It kills me to say this as a diehard Pats fan but I’m going to concede the 6 seed to the Jets in the end. They have an easier schedule down the stretch than the Bengals and though Mark Sanchez has done nothing to show he has a semblance of consistency he’s been to the AFC Championship game twice and can somewhat handle playing under stress. The Bengals are lead by a rookie quarterback who has exceeded all expectations in the redheaded fireball Andy Dalton. Dalton has had an extraordinary season by all accounts but I don’t think he can beat the Texans, Steelers and Ravens down the stretch while the Jets get the likes of the Redskins, Chiefs, reeling Eagles, Giants, and Dolphins. The Jets have a pretty good shot at winning out whereas the Bengals would do well to win 2 out of 3 of those games, their other two games are against the Rams and Cardinals I’m going to chalk those up as W’s. The Bengals have had a much better year than anticipated in year 1 of the Dalton experience and I think next year they’ll be dancing with the big boys but this year they’re going to be left waiting for a prom date. Jets wrap up the 6th seed and if there’s justice for being obnoxious ego inflated pricks they’ll be bounced in round 1 by the Texans. If not then hopefully the Steelers or Ravens can serve them papers in round 2.

There you have it folks that’s why I see the AFC playoff race playing out and stay tuned for my take on the NFC race tomorrow night. Let me know what you think.

Geoff Jablonski